Costs and decisions in population management: Koalas on Kangaroo Island

Many populations have a negative impact on their habitat, or upon other species in the environment, if their numbers become too large. For this reason they are often managed using some form of control. The objective is to keep numbers at a sustainable level, while ensuring survival of the population.+Here we present models that allow population management programs to be assessed. Two common control regimes will be considered: reduction and suppression. Under the suppression regime the previous population is maintained close to a particular threshold through near continuous control, while under the reduction regime, control begins once the previous population reaches a certain threshold and continues until it falls below a lower pre-defined level. We discuss how to best choose the control parameters, and we provide tools that allow population managers to select reduction levels and control rates. Additional tools will be provided to assess the effect of different control regimes, in terms of population persistence and cost.In particular we consider the effects of each regime on the probability of extinction and the expected time to extinction, and compare the control methods in terms of the expected total cost of each regime over the life of the population. The usefulness of our results will be illustrated with reference to the control of a koala population inhabiting Kangaroo Island, Australia.

Methods for conflict resolution in policy-based management systems

While developments in distributed object computing environments, such as the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) [17] and the Telecommunication Intelligent Network Architecture (TINA) [16], have enabled interoperability between domains in large open distributed systems, managing the resources within such systems has become an increasingly complex task. This challenge has been considered for several years within the distributed systems management research community and policy-based management has recently emerged as a promising solution. Large evolving enterprises present a significant challenge for policy-based management partly due to the requirement to support both mutual transparency and individual autonomy between domains [2], but also because the fluidity and complexity of interactions occurring within such environments requires an ability to cope with the coexistence of multiple, potentially inconsistent policies. This paper discusses the need of providing both dynamic (run-time) and static (compile-time) conflict detection and resolution for policies in such systems and builds on our earlier conflict detection work [7, 8] to introduce the methods for conflict resolution in large open distributed systems.

High-level and phonological awareness abilities of children following management for supratentorial tumour: Part II

Background. Limited information is available regarding the impact of childhood tumour on the cerebral hemispheres and supratentorial cranial fossa. However, a recent study found that children managed for a tumour located in this region may demonstrate reduced general language abilities. However, the indirect or direct impact of a tumour in this region on higher-level language abilities in childhood is at present largely unknown. Materials and methods. The present study examined the higher language and phonological awareness abilities of five children treated for supratentorial tumour ranging in age from seven to fourteen years in age. Assessments included measures of receptive and expressive semantic abilities, inferencing, figurative language, and problem solving, as well as a comprehensive pre-literacy test. Results. As a group, reductions were evident in problem solving, and in the ability to receive and decode content of high-level language when compared to a group of age- and gender-matched peers. At an individual level, only two of five children managed for supratentorial tumour demonstrated language deficits. These two cases were noted to be the same children previously identified as also having general language deficits. More widespread findings were noted in phonological awareness, with four of the five children previously managed for supratentorial tumour demonstrating weaknesses in one or more areas. Conclusions. Findings demonstrated that weaknesses in general language ability in children managed for supratentorial tumour may indicate higher-level language difficulties. Language abilities beyond general measures of language should be monitored, as well as long-term consideration of phonological awareness abilities in this population.

Improved methods for predicting individual leaf area and leaf senescence in maize (Zea mays)

The ability to predict leaf area and leaf area index is crucial in crop simulation models that predict crop growth and yield. Previous studies have shown existing methods of predicting leaf area to be inadequate when applied to a broad range of cultivars with different numbers of leaves. The objectives of the study were to (i) develop generalised methods of modelling individual and total plant leaf area, and leaf senescence, that do not require constants that are specific to environments and/or genotypes, (ii) re-examine the base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence, and (iii) assess the method of calculation of individual leaf area from leaf length and leaf width in experimental work. Five cultivars of maize differing widely in maturity and adaptation were planted in October 1994 in south-eastern Queensland, and grown under non-limiting conditions of water and plant nutrient supplies. Additional data for maize plants with low total leaf number (12-17) grown at Katumani Research Centre, Kenya, were included to extend the range in the total leaf number per plant. The equation for the modified (slightly skewed) bell curve could be generalised for modelling individual leaf area, as all coefficients in it were related to total leaf number. Use of coefficients for individual genotypes can be avoided, and individual and total plant leaf area can be calculated from total leaf number. A single, logistic equation, relying on maximum plant leaf area and thermal time from emergence, was developed to predict leaf senescence. The base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence were 8, 34, and 40 degrees C, and apply for the whole crop-cycle when used in modelling of leaf senescence. Thus, the modelling of leaf production and senescence is simplified, improved, and generalised. Consequently, the modelling of leaf area index (LAI) and variables that rely on LAI will be improved. For experimental purposes, we found that the calculation of leaf area from leaf length and leaf width remains appropriate, though the relationship differed slightly from previously published equations.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - II. Testing simulation capabilities of wheat growth

To simulate cropping systems, crop models must not only give reliable predictions of yield across a wide range of environmental conditions, they must also quantify water and nutrient use well, so that the status of the soil at maturity is a good representation of the starting conditions for the next cropping sequence. To assess the suitability for this task a range of crop models, currently used in Australia, were tested. The models differed in their design objectives, complexity and structure and were (i) tested on diverse, independent data sets from a wide range of environments and (ii) model components were further evaluated with one detailed data set from a semi-arid environment. All models were coded into the cropping systems shell APSIM, which provides a common soil water and nitrogen balance. Crop development was input, thus differences between simulations were caused entirely by difference in simulating crop growth. Under nitrogen non-limiting conditions between 73 and 85% of the observed kernel yield variation across environments was explained by the models. This ranged from 51 to 77% under varying nitrogen supply. Water and nitrogen effects on leaf area index were predicted poorly by all models resulting in erroneous predictions of dry matter accumulation and water use. When measured light interception was used as input, most models improved in their prediction of dry matter and yield. This test highlighted a range of compensating errors in all modelling approaches. Time course and final amount of water extraction was simulated well by two models, while others left up to 25% of potentially available soil water in the profile. Kernel nitrogen percentage was predicted poorly by all models due to its sensitivity to small dry matter changes. Yield and dry matter could be estimated adequately for a range of environmental conditions using the general concepts of radiation use efficiency and transpiration efficiency. However, leaf area and kernel nitrogen dynamics need to be improved to achieve better estimates of water and nitrogen use if such models are to be use to evaluate cropping systems. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - III. The integrated wheat model (I_WHEAT)

Previous work has identified several short-comings in the ability of four spring wheat and one barley model to simulate crop processes and resource utilization. This can have important implications when such models are used within systems models where final soil water and nitrogen conditions of one crop define the starting conditions of the following crop. In an attempt to overcome these limitations and to reconcile a range of modelling approaches, existing model components that worked demonstrably well were combined with new components for aspects where existing capabilities were inadequate. This resulted in the Integrated Wheat Model (I_WHEAT), which was developed as a module of the cropping systems model APSIM. To increase predictive capability of the model, process detail was reduced, where possible, by replacing groups of processes with conservative, biologically meaningful parameters. I_WHEAT does not contain a soil water or soil nitrogen balance. These are present as other modules of APSIM. In I_WHEAT, yield is simulated using a linear increase in harvest index whereby nitrogen or water limitations can lead to early termination of grainfilling and hence cessation of harvest index increase. Dry matter increase is calculated either from the amount of intercepted radiation and radiation conversion efficiency or from the amount of water transpired and transpiration efficiency, depending on the most limiting resource. Leaf area and tiller formation are calculated from thermal time and a cultivar specific phyllochron interval. Nitrogen limitation first reduces leaf area and then affects radiation conversion efficiency as it becomes more severe. Water or nitrogen limitations result in reduced leaf expansion, accelerated leaf senescence or tiller death. This reduces the radiation load on the crop canopy (i.e. demand for water) and can make nitrogen available for translocation to other organs. Sensitive feedbacks between light interception and dry matter accumulation are avoided by having environmental effects acting directly on leaf area development, rather than via biomass production. This makes the model more stable across environments without losing the interactions between the different external influences. When comparing model output with models tested previously using data from a wide range of agro-climatic conditions, yield and biomass predictions were equal to the best of those models, but improvements could be demonstrated for simulating leaf area dynamics in response to water and nitrogen supply, kernel nitrogen content, and total water and nitrogen use. I_WHEAT does not require calibration for any of the environments tested. Further model improvement should concentrate on improving phenology simulations, a more thorough derivation of coefficients to describe leaf area development and a better quantification of some processes related to nitrogen dynamics. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

STD syndrome packets: Improving syndromic management of sexually transmitted diseases in developing countries

Objective: To design, introduce, and evaluate STD syndrome packets containing recommended drugs for each syndrome, four condoms, a partner treatment card, and a patient information leaflet, with the goal of improving sexually transmitted disease (STD) case management. Methods: Packet design evolved around available packaging technology, informed by pilot testing with nurses working in primary care clinics, doctors in private medical practices, and patients with an STD, in Hlabisa, South Africa. Evaluation 1 year later included analysis of distribution records and interviews with 16 nurses and 61 patients. Results: A cheap packet (2 U, S, cents each, excluding contents) compatible with current legislation was designed and introduced to six public sector clinics and as a short pilot to five private medical practices, Four thousand eighty-five packets were distributed to the clinics, equivalent to approximately 115% of the STDs reported over that period. All 16 nurses reported using the packets, but only 63% did so all the time because of occasional supply problems, All believed the packets improved treatment by saving time (75%), improving supply of condoms and partner cards (44%), and making treatment easier (56%), Patients also responded positively, and most said they would buy a packet (up to $5) at a pharmacy (84%) or store (63%) if available. Conclusions: The STD syndrome packets have the potential to improve STD syndromic management by standardizing therapy and improving the supply of condoms, partner cards, and information leaflets. Packets are popular with practitioners and patients, but consistent supply is essential for maximal impact, There may be scope for social marketing of the packets, which could further increase use.

The moderating role of task characteristics in determining responses to a stressful work simulation

Two experimental studies were conducted to examine whether the stress-buffering effects of behavioral control on work task responses varied as a function of procedural information. Study 1 manipulated low and high levels of task demands, behavioral control, and procedural information for 128 introductory psychology students completing an in-basket activity. ANOVA procedures revealed a significant three-way interaction among these variables in the prediction of subjective task performance and task satisfaction. It was found that procedural information buffered the negative effects of task demands on ratings of performance and satisfaction only under conditions of low behavioral control. This pattern of results suggests that procedural information may have a compensatory effect when the work environment is characterized by a combination of high task demands and low behavioral control. Study 2 (N = 256) utilized simple and complex versions of the in-basket activity to examine the extent to which the interactive relationship among task demands, behavioral control, and procedural information varied as a function of task complexity. There was further support for the stress-buffering role of procedural information on work task responses under conditions of low behavioral control. This effect was, however, only present when the in-basket activity was characterized by high task complexity, suggesting that the interactive relationship among these variables may depend on the type of tasks performed at work. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Habitat structure and egg distributions in the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer: lessons for conservation and pest management

1. The spatial and temporal distribution of eggs laid by herbivorous insects is a crucial component of herbivore population stability, as it influences overall mortality within the population. Thus an ecologist studying populations of an endangered butterfly can do little to increase its numbers through habitat management without knowledge of its egg-laying patterns across individual host-plants under different habitat management regimes. At the other end of the spectrum, a knowledge of egg-laying behaviour can do much to control pest outbreaks by disrupting egg distributions that lead to rapid population growth. 2. The distribution of egg batches of the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer on acacia trees was monitored in 21 habitats during 2 years in coastal Australia. The presence of egg batches on acacias was affected by host-tree 'quality' (tree size and foliar chemistry that led to increased caterpillar survival) and host-tree 'apparency' (the amount of vegetation surrounding host-trees). 3. In open homogeneous habitats, more egg batches were laid on high-quality trees, increasing potential population growth. In diverse mixed-species habitats, more egg batches were laid on low-quality highly apparent trees, reducing population growth and so reducing the potential for unstable population dynamics. The aggregation of batches on small apparent trees in diverse habitats led to outbreaks on these trees year after year, even when population levels were low, while site-wide outbreaks were rare. 4. These results predict that diverse habitats with mixed plant species should increase insect aggregation and increase population stability. In contrast, in open disturbed habitats or in regular plantations, where egg batches are more evenly distributed across high-quality hosts, populations should be more unstable, with site-wide outbreaks and extinctions being more common. 5. Mixed planting should be used on habitat regeneration sites to increase the population stability of immigrating or reintroduced insect species. Mixed planting also increases the diversity of resources, leading to higher herbivore species richness. With regard to the conservation of single species, different practices of habitat management will need to be employed depending on whether a project is concerned with methods of rapidly increasing the abundance of an endangered insect or concerned with the maintenance of a stable, established insect population that is perhaps endemic to an area. Suggestions for habitat management in these different cases are discussed. 6. Finally, intercropping can be highly effective in reducing pest outbreaks, although the economic gains of reduced pest attack may be outweighed by reduced crop yields in mixed-crop systems.