On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Bubble load measurement in the pulp zone of industrial flotation machines - a new device for determining the froth recovery of attached particles

A new device has been developed to directly measure the bubble loading of particle-bubble aggregates in industrial flotation machines, both mechanical flotation cells as well as flotation column cells. The bubble loading of aggregates allows for in-depth analysis of the operating performance of a flotation machine in terms of both pulp/collection zone and froth zone performance. This paper presents the methodology along with an example showing the excellent reproducibility of the device and an analysis of different operating conditions of the device itself. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction

Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

Statistical tests of load-unload response ratio signals by lattice solid model: Implication to tidal triggering and earthquake prediction

Statistical tests of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) signals are carried in order to verify statistical robustness of the previous studies using the Lattice Solid Model (MORA et al., 2002b). In each case 24 groups of samples with the same macroscopic parameters (tidal perturbation amplitude A, period T and tectonic loading rate k) but different particle arrangements are employed. Results of uni-axial compression experiments show that before the normalized time of catastrophic failure, the ensemble average LURR value rises significantly, in agreement with the observations of high LURR prior to the large earthquakes. In shearing tests, two parameters are found to control the correlation between earthquake occurrence and tidal stress. One is, A/(kT) controlling the phase shift between the peak seismicity rate and the peak amplitude of the perturbation stress. With an increase of this parameter, the phase shift is found to decrease. Another parameter, AT/k, controls the height of the probability density function (Pdf) of modeled seismicity. As this parameter increases, the Pdf becomes sharper and narrower, indicating a strong triggering. Statistical studies of LURR signals in shearing tests also suggest that except in strong triggering cases, where LURR cannot be calculated due to poor data in unloading cycles, the larger events are more likely to occur in higher LURR periods than the smaller ones, supporting the LURR hypothesis.

Real-time reverse transcriptase PCR for the endogenous koala retrovirus reveals an association between plasma viral load and neoplastic disease in koalas

Koala retrovirus (KoRV) is a newly described endogenous retrovirus and is unusual in that inserts comprise a full-length replication competent genome. As koalas are known to suffer from an extremely high incidence of leukaemia/lymphoma, the association between this retrovirus and disease in koalas was examined. Using quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase PCR it was demonstrated that KoRV RNA levels in plasma are significantly increased in animals suffering from leukaemia or lymphoma when compared with healthy animals. Increased levels of KoRV were also seen for animals with clinical chlamydiosis. A significant positive association between viral RNA levels and age was also demonstrated. Real-time PCR demonstrated as much as 5 log variation in KoRV proviral DNA levels in genomic DNA extracted from whole blood from different animals. Taken together these data indicate that KoRV is an active endogenous retrovirus and suggests that it may be causally linked to neoplastic disease in koalas.

Electricity market price spike forecast with data mining techniques

Electricity market price forecast is a changeling yet very important task for electricity market managers and participants. Due to the complexity and uncertainties in the power grid, electricity prices are highly volatile and normally carry with spikes. which may be (ens or even hundreds of times higher than the normal price. Such electricity spikes are very difficult to be predicted. So far. most of the research on electricity price forecast is based on the normal range electricity prices. This paper proposes a data mining based electricity price forecast framework, which can predict the normal price as well as the price spikes. The normal price can be, predicted by a previously proposed wavelet and neural network based forecast model, while the spikes are forecasted based on a data mining approach. This paper focuses on the spike prediction and explores the reasons for price spikes based on the measurement of a proposed composite supply-demand balance index (SDI) and relative demand index (RDI). These indices are able to reflect the relationship among electricity demand, electricity supply and electricity reserve capacity. The proposed model is based on a mining database including market clearing price, trading hour. electricity), demand, electricity supply and reserve. Bayesian classification and similarity searching techniques are used to mine the database to find out the internal relationships between electricity price spikes and these proposed. The mining results are used to form the price spike forecast model. This proposed model is able to generate forecasted price spike, level of spike and associated forecast confidence level. The model is tested with the Queensland electricity market data with promising results. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fracture load and marginal fit of shrinkage-free ZrSiO4 all-ceramic crowns after chewing simulation

The aim of this in vitro study was to evaluate the fracture load and marginal accuracy of crowns made from a shrinkage-free ZrSiO4 ceramic cemented with glass-ionomer or composite cement after chewing simulation. Thirty-two human mandibular molars were randomly divided into two groups. All teeth were prepared for and restored with shrinkage-free ZrSiO4 ceramic crowns (Everest HPC (R), KaVo). The crowns of group A (N = 16) were luted to the teeth using KetacCem (R) and group B (N = 16) were adhesively cemented using Panavia (R) 21EX. Measurements of the marginal accuracy before and after cementation were made using replicas and an image analysis system. All specimens were exposed to 1.2 million cycles of thermo-mechanical fatigue in a chewing simulator. Surviving specimens were subsequently loaded until fracture in a static testing device. Fracture loads (N) were recorded. All specimens survived chewing simulation. The mean fracture loads (+/- s.d.) were Group A, 1622 N (+/- 433); group B, 1957 N (+/- 806). There was no significant difference between the two groups (P > 0.05). The marginal gap values before cementation were (mean +/- s.d.): Group A, 32.7 mu m (+/- 6.8); group B, 33.0 mu m (+/- 6.7).The mean marginal gap values after cementation were (+/- s.d.): Group A, 44.6 mu m (+/- 6.7); group B, 46.6 mu m (+/- 7.7). The marginal openings were significantly higher after cementation for both groups (P < 0.05). All test groups demonstrated fracture load and marginal accuracy values within the range of clinical acceptability.

The effects of varying time under tension and volume load on acute neuromuscular responses

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of different methods of measuring training volume, controlled in different ways, on selected variables that reflect acute neuromuscular responses. Eighteen resistance-trained males performed three fatiguing protocols of dynamic constant external resistance exercise, involving elbow flexors, that manipulated either time-under-tension (TUT) or volume load (VL), defined as the product of training load and repetitions. Protocol A provided a standard for TUT and VL. Protocol B involved the same VL as Protocol A but only 40% concentric TUT; Protocol C was equated to Protocol A for TUT but only involved 50% VL. Fatigue was assessed by changes in maximum voluntary isometric contraction (MVIC), interpolated doublet (ID), muscle twitch characteristics (peak twitch, time to peak twitch, 0.5 relaxation time, and mean rates of force development and twitch relaxation). All protocols produced significant changes (P

Dynamic training volume: A construct of both time under tension and volume load

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of three different weight training protocols, that varied in the way training volume was measured, on acute muscular fatigue. Ten resistance-trained males performed all three protocols which involved dynamic constant resistance exercise of the elbow flexors. Protocol A provided a standard for the time the muscle group was under tension (TUT) and volume load (VL), expressed as the product of the total number of repetitions and the load that was lifted. Protocol B involved 40% of the TUT but the same VL compared to protocol A; protocol C was equated with protocol A for TUT but only involved 50% of the VL. Fatigue was assessed by changes in maximum voluntary isometric force and integrated electromyography (iEMG) between the pre- and post-training protocols. The results of the study showed that, when equated for VL, greater TUT produced greater overall muscular fatigue ( p

Injuries associated with continuous miners, shuttle cars, load-haul-dump and personnel transport in New South Wales underground coal mines

In the three years to June 2005, 959 injuries associated with continuous miners (CMs), shuttle cars (SCs), load–haul–dump and personnel transport (PT) were reported by NSW underground coal mines, comprising 23% of all injuries reported. The present paper reports an analysis of the narrative field accompanying these reports to determine opportunities for controlling injury risks. The most common combinations of activity and mechanism were: strain while handling CM cable (96 injuries); caught between or struck by moving parts while bolting on a CM (86 injuries); strains while bolting on CM (54 injuries); and slipping off a CM during access, egress or other activity (60 injuries). For the other equipment considered, the common injury mechanism was the vehicle running over a pothole or other roadway abnormality causing the driver or passengers to be injured (169 injuries). Potential control measures include: monorails for CM services; hydraulic cable reelers; handrails on CM platforms; redesign of CM platforms and bolting rigs to reduce reach distances during drilling and bolting; improvements to guarding of bolting controls; standardisation and shape coding of bolting controls; two handed fast feed; improvements in underground roadway maintenance, vehicle suspension, visibility and seating; and pedestrian proximity warning devices.

In vivo demonstration of load-induced fluid flow in the rat tibia and its potential implications for processes associated with functional adaptation

Load-induced extravascular fluid flow has been postulated to play a role in mechanotransduction of physiological loads at the cellular level. Furthermore, the displaced fluid serves as a carrier for metabolites, nutrients, mineral precursors and osteotropic agents important for cellular activity. We hypothesise that load-induced fluid flow enhances the transport of these key substances, thus helping to regulate cellular activity associated with processes of functional adaptation and remodelling. To test this hypothesis, molecular tracer methods developed previously by our group were applied in vivo to observe and quantify the effects of load-induced fluid flow under four-point-bending loads. Preterminal tracer transport studies were carried out on 24 skeletally mature Sprague Dawley rats. Mechanical loading enhanced the transport of both small- and larger-molecular-mass tracers within the bony tissue of the tibial mid-diaphysis. Mechanical loading showed a highly significant effect on the number of periosteocytic spaces exhibiting tracer within the cross section of each bone. For all loading rates studied, the concentration of Procion Red tracer was consistently higher in the tibia subjected to pure bending loads than in the unloaded, contralateral tibia, Furthermore, the enhancement of transport was highly site-specific. In bones subjected to pure bending loads, a greater number of periosteocytic spaces exhibited the presence of tracer in the tension band of the cross section than in the compression band; this may reflect the higher strains induced in the tension band compared with the compression band within the mid-diaphysis of the rat tibia. Regardless of loading mode, the mean difference between the loaded side and the unloaded contralateral control side decreased with increasing loading frequency. Whether this reflects the length of exposure to the tracer or specific frequency effects cannot be determined by this set of experiments. These in vivo experimental results corroborate those of previous ex vivo and in vitro studies, Strain-related differences in tracer distribution provide support for the hypothesis that load-induced fluid flow plays a regulatory role in processes associated with functional adaptation.