Ten-year survival after first-ever stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Very few studies have provided information regarding long-term prognosis after stroke. We aimed to determine the absolute and relative survival over 10 years among patients with first-ever stroke from a population-based study in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-For a 12-month period beginning February 1989, all individuals with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack who were resident in a geographically defined and representative region of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients with a definite first-ever stroke were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, 5 years, and 10 years after the index event. Results-A total of 251 patients with first-ever stroke were registered, and 244 (97%) were followed up at 10 years, by which time 197 (79%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 74 to 84) had died. The major causes of death were the direct effects of the initial stroke (27%; 95% CI, 21 to 33) and cardiovascular disease (26%; 95% CI, 20 to 32). Among 1-year survivors of stroke, the average annual case fatality was 4.8%, which was 2.3 (95% CI, 1.9 to 2.7) times greater than for the general population of the same age and sex. Conclusions-One in 5 patients with first-ever stroke survived to 10 years. The average annual case fatality was 4.8% between years 1 and 10 after stroke, which was twice that expected for the general population. Vascular disease is the major cause of death among long-term survivors of stroke.

Ten-year risk of first recurrent stroke and disability after first-ever stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Limited information exists on the long-term prognosis after first-ever stroke. We aimed to determine the absolute frequency of first recurrent stroke and disability and the relative frequency of recurrent stroke over 10 years after first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-For a 12-month period beginning February 1989, all individuals with suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack who lived in a geographically defined and representative region of Perth were registered prospectively. Patients with a definite first-ever stroke were followed up 10 years after the index event. Results-Over 10 years of follow-up, the cumulative risk of a first recurrent stroke was 43% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34 to 51). After the first year after first-ever stroke, the average annual risk of recurrent stroke was approximate to4%. Case fatality at 30 days after first recurrent stroke was 41%, which was significantly greater than the case fatality at 30 days after first-ever stroke (22%) (P=0.003). For 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, the 10-year cumulative risk of death or new institutionalization was 79% (95% CI, 73 to 85) and of death or new disability was 87% (95% CI, 81 to 92). Conclusions-Over 10 years of follow-up, the risk of first recurrent stroke is 6 times greater than the risk of first-ever stroke in the general population of the same age and sex, almost one half of survivors remain disabled, and one seventh require institutional care. Effective strategies for prevention of stroke need to be implemented early, monitored frequently, and maintained long term after first-ever stroke.

Trends in five-year survival and risk of recurrent stroke after first-ever stroke in the Perth community stroke study

Background: Few studies provide information on trends in the long-term outcome of stroke. We aimed to determine trends in survival and recurrent stroke, over 5 years after first-ever stroke, for 2 cohorts of patients enrolled in the Perth Community Stroke Study in 1989 90 and 1995-96. Methods: For 12-month periods beginning February 1989 and February 1995, all individuals with an acute stroke who were resident in a geographically-defined and representative region of Perth, Western Australia, were registered and followed-up prospectively 5 years after the index event. Results: The 5-year cumulative risk of death was 59% (95% confidence interval (CI) 53%, 65%) and 58% (95% CI 52%, 65%) for the 1989-90 and 1995-96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.94). The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 32% (95% CI 25%, 40%) and 23% (95% CI 16%, 30%) for the 1989-90 and 1995-96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.07). Conclusions: Although no statistically significant improvement occurred in 5-year survival after first-ever stroke in Perth between 1989-90 and 1995-96, there was a statistically nonsignificant trend towards a smaller cumulative risk of recurrent stroke over 5 years after a first-ever stroke. Serial community-based studies of the incidence and outcome of stroke are an important means of monitoring the translation of proven preventive interventions to improvements in population health. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A synthesis of the findings from the Quake Impact Study: A two year investigation of the psychosocial sequelae of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake

This paper summarises the major findings from the Quake Impact Study (QIS), a four-phase longitudinal project that was conducted in the aftermath of the 1989 Newcastle (Australia) earthquake. A total of 3,484 subjects participated in at least one component of the QIS, comprising a stratified sample of 3,007 drawn from community electoral rolls and 477 from specially targeted supplementary samples (the injured, the displaced, the owners of damaged businesses, and the helpers). Subjects' initial earthquake experiences were rated in terms of weighted indices of exposure to threat and disruption. Psychological morbidity was measured at each phase using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and the Impact of Event Scale (IES). Selected findings and key conclusions are presented for each of six areas of investigation: service utilisation during the first 6 months post-disaster; patterns of earthquake experience and short-term (6-month) psychosocial outcome; earthquake exposure and medium term (2-year) psychosocial outcome; vulnerability factors and medium-term psychosocial outcome: specific community groups at increased risk (e.g., the elderly and immigrants from non-English-speaking backgrounds); the effects of stress debriefing for helpers. Threshold morbidity (i.e., likely caseness) rates are also presented for a broad range of subgroups. In addition to presenting an overview of the QIS, this paper synthesises the major findings and discusses their implications for future disaster management and research from a mental health perspective.

Breast cancer five-year survival in New South Wales women, 1972 to 1991

This study of breast cancer survival is based on analysis of five-year relative survival of 38 362 cases of invasive breast cancer in New South Wales (NSW) women, incident between 1972 and 1991, with follow-up to 1992, using data from the population-based NSW Central Cancer Registry. Survival was ascertained by matching the registry file of breast cancers against NSW death certificates from 1972 to 1992, mainly by automated probabilistic linkage. Absolute survival of cases was compared with expected survival of age- and period-matched NSW women. Proportional hazard regression analysis was used for examination of the effects on excess mortality of age, period of diagnosis and degree of spread at diagnosis. Relative survival at five years increased from 70 per cent in 1972-1976 to 77 per cent in 1987-1991. Survival improved during the 1970s and in the late 1980s. Regression analysis suggested that part of the improved survival in the late 1980s was due to lesser degree of spread at diagnosis, whereas the improved survival during the 1970s may have been due to treatment. Survival was better for those aged 40-49 years (RR = 0.86) and worse for those aged greater than or equal to 70 years (RR = 1.22) compared with the referent group (60-69 years). Excess mortality was much less for those with invasive localised disease than those with regional spread (RR = 3.1) or metastatic cancer (RR = 15.5) at diagnosis. For the most recent period (1987-1991), relative five-year survival was 90, 70 and 18 per cent, respectively, for the three degree-of-spread categories.

Breast cancer five-year survival, by New South Wales regions, 1980 to 1991

Breast cancer five-year relative survival was calculated for 16 urban and rural regions in New South Wales (NSW) for cases incident in 1980-1991. Survival analysis employed cancer registry data linked with the death register, and age- and period-matched regional mortality of NSW women, Proportional hazard regression analysis was used to compare excess mortality in breast cancer cases in each region. The effect of region was significant (P < 0.05) in the analysis, after age and the follow-up variable (and their intel action) were adjusted for, although no region was significantly different from the referent group (chosen because of average relative five-year survival). When degree of spread and its interactions were entered into che model, the effect of region became nonsignificant. A significant linear trend (P < 0.05) in the adjusted relative risk for excess mortality in breast cancer cases was noted when regions were divided into quartiles based on socioeconomic status, with higher relative risk in low-socioeconomic-status groups; this effect also disappeared with adjustment for degree of spread at diagnosis. There was no general effect of rurality versus capital city or other metropolitan centres. This study demonstrates a small effect of region of residence and implied socioeconomic status on breast cancer survival in NSW women, but this becomes nonsignificant when the data are adjusted for degree of spread at diagnosis, This suggests that earlier diagnosis would he of benefit in reducing minor inequalities in breast cancer survival in NSW women.

A 1-year longitudinal study of severe traumatic brain injury in Australia using the Sickness Impact Profile

Objective: To document outcome and to investigate patterns of physical and psychosocial recovery in the first year following severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) in an Australian patient sample. Design: A longitudinal prospective study of a cohort of patients, with data collection at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months post injury. Setting: A head injury rehabilitation unit in a large metropolitan public hospital. Patients: A sample of 55 patients selected from 120 consecutive admissions with severe TBI. Patients who were more than 3 months post injury on admission, who remained confused, or who had severe communication deficits or a previous neurologic disorder were excluded. Interventions: All subjects participated in a multidisciplinary inpatient rehabilitation program, followed by varied participation in outpatient rehabilitation and community-based sen ices. Main Outcome Measures: The Sickness impact Profile (SIP) provided physical, psychosocial, and total dysfunction scores at each follow-up. Outcome at 1 year was measured by the Disability Rating Scale. Results: Multivariate analysis of variance indicated that the linear trend of recovery over time was less for psychosocial dysfunction than for physical dysfunction (F(1,51) = 5.87, P < .02). One rear post injury, 22% of subjects had returned to their previous level of employability, and 42% were able to live independently. Conclusions: Recovery from TBI in this Australian sample followed a pattern similar to that observed in other countries, with psychosocial dysfunction being more persistent. Self-report measures such as the SIP in TBI research are limited by problems of diminished self-awareness.