Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Monitoring and isolation of blood dendritic cells from apheresis products in healthy individuals: a platform for cancer immunotherapy

The fundamental role of dendritic cells (DC in initiating and directing the primary immune response is well established. Furthermore, it is now accepted that DC may be useful in new vaccination strategies for preventing certain malignant and infectious diseases. As blood DC (BDC physiology differs from that of the DC homologues generated in vitro from monocyte precursors, it is becoming more relevant to consider BDC for therapeutic interventions. Until recently, protocols for the isolation of BDC were laborious and inefficient; therefore, their use for investigative cancer immunotherapy is not widespread. In this study, we carefully documented BDC counts, yields and subsets during apheresis (Cobe Spectra), the initial and essential procedure in creating a BDC isolation platform for cancer immunotherapy. We established that an automated software package (Version 6,0 AutoPBPC) provides an operator-independent reliable source of motionuclear cells (MNC for BDC preparation. Further, we observed that BDC might be recovered in high yields, often greater than 100% relative to the number of circulating BDC predicted by blood volume. An average of 66 million (range, 17-179) BDC per 10-1 procedure were obtained, largely satisfying the needs for immunization. Higher yields were possible on total processed blood volumes of 151. BDC were not activated by the isolation procedure and, more importantly, both BDC subsets (CD11c(+)CD123(low) and CD11c(-)CD123(high)) were equally represented. Finally, we established that the apheresis product could be used for antibody-based BDC immunoselection and demonstrated that fully functional BDC can be obtained by this procedure. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Spontaneous generation and survival of blood dendritic cells in mononuclear cell culture without exogenous cytokines

Studies on purified blood dendritic cells (DCs) are hampered by poor viability in tissue culture. We, therefore, attempted to study some of the interactions/relationships between DCs and other blood cells by culturing unseparated peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) preparations in vitro. Flow cytometric techniques were used to undertake a phenotypic and functional analysis of DCs within the cultured PBMC population. We discovered that both the CD11c(+) and CD11c(-) CD123(hi) DC subsets maintained their viability throughout the 3-day culture period, without the addition of exogenous cytokines. This viability was accompanied by progressive up-regulation of the surface costimulatory (CD40, CD80, CD86) and activation (CMRF-44, CMRF-56, CD83) molecules. The survival and apparent production of DCs in PBMC culture (without exogenous cytokines) and that of sorted DCs (with cytokines) were evaluated and compared by using TruCOUNT analysis. Absolute DC counts increased (for CD123hi and CD11c+ subsets) after overnight culture of PBMCs. Single-cell lineage depletion experiments demonstrated the rapid and spontaneous emergence of new in vitro generated DCs from CD14(+)/CD16(+) PBMC radioresistant precursors, additional to the preexisting ex vivo DC population. Unlike monocyte-derived DCs, blood DCs increased dextran uptake with culture and activation. Finally, DCs obtained after culture of PBMCs for 3 days were as effective as freshly isolated DCs in stimulating an allogeneic mixed leukocyte reaction. (C) 2002 by The American Society of Hematology.

Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

Therapeutic potential of venom peptides

Venomous animals have evolved a vast array of peptide toxins for prey capture and defence. These peptides are directed against a wide variety of pharmacological targets, making them an invaluable source of ligands for studying the properties of these targets in different experimental paradigms. A number of these peptides have been used in vivo for proof-of-concept studies, with several having undergone preclinical or clinical development for the treatment of pain, diabetes, multiple sclerosis and cardiovascular diseases. Here we survey the pharmacology of venom peptides and assess their therapeutic prospects.

Modified logit life table system: Principles, empirical validation, and application

Despite its widespread use, the Coale-Demeny model life table system does not capture the extensive variation in age-specific mortality patterns observed in contemporary populations, particularly those of the countries of Eastern Europe and populations affected by HIV/AIDS. Although relational mortality models, such as the Brass logit system, can identify these variations, these models show systematic bias in their predictive ability as mortality levels depart from the standard. We propose a modification of the two-parameter Brass relational model. The modified model incorporates two additional age-specific correction factors (gamma(x), and theta(x)) based on mortality levels among children and adults, relative to the standard. Tests of predictive validity show deviations in age-specific mortality rates predicted by the proposed system to be 30-50 per cent lower than those predicted by the Coale-Demeny system and 15-40 per cent lower than those predicted using the original Brass system. The modified logit system is a two-parameter system, parameterized using values of l(5) and l(60).

Evidence and information for health policy: a decade of change

Over the past decade or so, there has been increasing demand for greater clarity about the major causes of disease and injury, how these differentially affect populations, and how they are changing. In part, this demand has been motivated by resource constraints and a realisation that better health is possible with more informed allocation of resources. At the same time, there has been a change in the way population health and its determinants are quantified, with a much closer integration of the quantitative population sciences (such as epidemiology, demography and health economics) to strengthen and broaden the evidence base for healthcare policy.

Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000

Objective: Current prevalence of smoking, even where data are available, is a poor proxy for cumulative hazards of smoking, which depend on several factors including the age at which smoking began, duration of smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, degree of inhalation, and cigarette characteristics such as tar and nicotine content or filter type. Methods: We extended the Peto-Lopez smoking impact ratio method to estimate accumulated hazards of smoking for different regions of the world. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease mortality database. The American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase 11 (CPS-II) with follow up for the years 1982 to 1988 was the reference population. For the global application of the method, never-smoker lung cancer mortality rates were chosen based on the estimated use of coal for household energy in each region. Results: Men in industrialised countries of Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific had the largest accumulated hazards of smoking. Young and middle age males in many regions of the developing world also had large smoking risks. The accumulated hazards of smoking for women were highest in North America followed by Europe. Conclusions: In the absence of detailed data on smoking prevalence and history, lung cancer mortality provides a robust indicator of the accumulated hazards of smoking. These hazards in developing countries are currently more concentrated among young and middle aged males.

Estimates of global mortality attributable to smoking in 2000

Background Smoking is a risk factor for several diseases and has been increasing in many developing countries. Our aim was to estimate global and regional mortality in 2000 caused by smoking, including an analysis of uncertainty. Methods Following the methods of Peto and colleagues, we used lung-cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking risk. Never-smoker lung-cancer mortality was estimated based on the household use of coal with poor ventilation. Relative risks were taken from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase II, and the retrospective proportional mortality analysis of Liu and colleagues in China. Relative risks were corrected for confounding and extrapolation to other regions. Results We estimated that in 2000, 4.83 (uncertainty range 3.94-5.93) million premature deaths in the world were attributable to smoking; 2.41 (1.80-3.15) million in developing countries and 2.43 (2.13-2.78) million in industrialised countries. 3.84 million of these deaths were in men. The leading causes of death from smoking were cardiovascular diseases (1.69 million deaths), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.97 million deaths), and lung cancer (0.85 million deaths). Interpretation Smoking was an important cause of global mortality in 2000. In view of the expected demographic and epidemiological transitions and current smoking patterns in the developing world, the health loss due to smoking will grow even larger unless effective interventions and policies that reduce smoking among men and prevent increases among women in developing countries are implemented.