Use of umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry in the monitoring of pregnancy in women with pre-existing diabetes

Background: The usefulness of umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry for the monitoring of diabetic pregnancies is controversial. The aim of the present study was to assess whether umbilical artery Doppler velocity waveform analysis can predict adverse perinatal outcomes for pregnancies complicated by pre-existing diabetes mellitus. Methods: All diabetic pregnancies (type 1 and 2) delivered at Mater Mothers' Hospital, Queensland, between 1 January 1995 and 31 December 1999 were included. All pregnant diabetic women were monitored with umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry at 28, 32, 36, and 38 weeks' gestation. Adverse perinatal outcome was defined as pregnancies with one or more of the following: small-for-gestational age, Caesarean section for non-reassuring cardiotocography, fetal acidaemia at delivery, 1-min Apgar of 3 or less, 5-min Apgar of less than 7, hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy or perinatal death. Abnormal umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry was defined as a pulsatility index of 95th centile or higher for gestation. Results: One hundred and four pregnancies in women with pre-existing diabetes had umbilical arterial Doppler studies carried out during the study period. Twenty-three pregnancies (22.1%) had an elevated pulsatility index. If the scans were carried out within 2 weeks of delivery, 71% of pregnancies with abnormal umbilical Doppler had adverse outcomes (P < 0.01; likelihood ratio, 4.2). However, the sensitivity was 35%; specificity was 94%; positive predictive value was 80%; and negative predictive value was 68%. Only 30% of women with adverse perinatal outcomes had abnormal umbilical arterial Doppler flow. Conclusion: Umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry is not a good predictor of adverse perinatal outcomes in diabetic pregnancies.

Genomewide Linkage Scan of 409 European-ancestry and African American Families with Schizophrenia: Suggestive Evidence of Linkage at 8p23.3-p21.2 and 11p13.1-q14.1 in the Combined Sample

We report the clinical characteristics of a schizophrenia sample of 409 pedigrees-263 of European ancestry ( EA) and 146 of African American ancestry ( AA)-together with the results of a genome scan ( with a simple tandem repeat polymorphism interval of 9 cM) and follow-up fine mapping. A family was required to have a proband with schizophrenia ( SZ) and one or more siblings of the proband with SZ or schizoaffective disorder. Linkage analyses included 403 independent full-sibling affected sibling pairs ( ASPs) ( 279 EA and 124 AA) and 100 all-possible half-sibling ASPs ( 15 EA and 85 AA). Nonparametric multipoint linkage analysis of all families detected two regions with suggestive evidence of linkage at 8p23.3-q12 and 11p11.2-q22.3 ( empirical Z likelihood-ratio score [ Z(lr)] threshold >= 2.65) and, in exploratory analyses, two other regions at 4p16.1-p15.32 in AA families and at 5p14.3-q11.2 in EA families. The most significant linkage peak was in chromosome 8p; its signal was mainly driven by the EA families. Z(lr) scores >= 2.0 in 8p were observed from 30.7 cM to 61.7 cM ( Center for Inherited Disease Research map locations). The maximum evidence in the full sample was a multipoint Z(lr) of 3.25 ( equivalent Kong-Cox LOD of 2.30) near D8S1771 ( at 52 cM); there appeared to be two peaks, both telomeric to neuregulin 1 ( NRG1). There is a paracentric inversion common in EA individuals within this region, the effect of which on the linkage evidence remains unknown in this and in other previously analyzed samples. Fine mapping of 8p did not significantly alter the significance or length of the peak. We also performed fine mapping of 4p16.3-p15.2, 5p15.2-q13.3, 10p15.3-p14, 10q25.3-q26.3, and 11p13-q23.3. The highest increase in Z(lr) scores was observed for 5p14.1-q12.1, where the maximum Z(lr) increased from 2.77 initially to 3.80 after fine mapping in the EA families.

Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective

We demonstrate that the process of generating smooth transitions Call be viewed as a natural result of the filtering operations implied in the generation of discrete-time series observations from the sampling of data from an underlying continuous time process that has undergone a process of structural change. In order to focus discussion, we utilize the problem of estimating the location of abrupt shifts in some simple time series models. This approach will permit its to address salient issues relating to distortions induced by the inherent aggregation associated with discrete-time sampling of continuous time processes experiencing structural change, We also address the issue of how time irreversible structures may be generated within the smooth transition processes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Machine learning for matching astronomy catalogues

An emerging issue in the field of astronomy is the integration, management and utilization of databases from around the world to facilitate scientific discovery. In this paper, we investigate application of the machine learning techniques of support vector machines and neural networks to the problem of amalgamating catalogues of galaxies as objects from two disparate data sources: radio and optical. Formulating this as a classification problem presents several challenges, including dealing with a highly unbalanced data set. Unlike the conventional approach to the problem (which is based on a likelihood ratio) machine learning does not require density estimation and is shown here to provide a significant improvement in performance. We also report some experiments that explore the importance of the radio and optical data features for the matching problem.

Critical values for unit root and cointegration test statistics - the use of response surface equations

This note considers the value of surface response equations which can be used to calculate critical values for a range of unit root and cointegration tests popular in applied economic research.

High HIV incidence and prevalence among young women in rural South Africa: Developing a cohort for intervention trials

Objective: To measure prevalence and model incidence of HIV infection. Setting: 2013 consecutive pregnant women attending public sector antenatal clinics in 1997 in Hlabisa health district, South Africa. Historical seroprevalence data, 1992-1995. Methods: Serum remaining from syphilis testing was tested anonymously for antibodies to HIV to determine seroprevalence. Two models, allowing for differential mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people, were used. The first used serial seroprevalence data to estimate trends in annual incidence. The second, a maximum likelihood model, took account of changing force of infection and age-dependent risk of infection, to estimate age-specific HIV incidence in 1997. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios (OR) for risk factors for prevalent HIV infection. Results: Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 4% in 1992/1993 to 10% in 1996/1997. In 1997, highest age-specific incidence was 16% among women aged between 20 and 24 years. in 1997, overall prevalence was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-28%) and at 34% was highest among women aged between 20 and 24 years. Young age (<30 years; odds ratio [OR], 2.1; p = .001), unmarried status (OR 2.2; p = .001) and living in less remote parts of the district (OR 1.5; p = .002) were associated with HIV prevalence in univariate analysis. Associations were less strong in multivariate analysis. Partner's migration status was not associated with HIV infection. Substantial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence by clinic was observed (range 17%-31%; test for trend, p = .001). Conclusions: This community is experiencing an explosive HIV epidemic. Young, single women in the more developed parts of the district would form an appropriate cohort to test, and benefit from, interventions such as vaginal microbicides and HIV vaccines.

Energy cost of activity assessed by indirect calorimetry and a (CO2)-C-13 breath test

Purpose: The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of a (CO2)-C-13 breath test for the prediction of short-duration energy expenditure. Methods: Eight healthy volunteers walked at 1.5 km.h(-1) for 60 min followed by 60-min recovery. During this time, the energy cost of physical activity was measured via respiratory calorimetry and a C-13 bicarbonate breath test. A further eight subjects were tested using the same two methods during a 60-min cycle at 0.5 kp. 30 ipm followed by a 60-min recovery. The rate of appearance of (CO2)-C-13, (RaCO2) was measured and the mean ratio, (V) over dot CO2/RaCO2 was used to calculate energy expenditure using the isotopic approach. Results: As would be expected, there was a significant difference in the energy cost of walking and cycling using both methods (P < 0.05). However. no significant differences were observed between respiratory calorimetry and the isotope method for measurement of energy expenditure while walking or cycling. Conclusions: These data suggest that the C-13 breath test is a valid method that can be used to measure the energy cost of short duration physical activity in a field setting.

Urine D-arabinitol/L-arabinitol ratio in diagnosing Candida infection in patients with haematological malignancy and HIV infection

Adult patients with hematologic malignancies along with HIV infected patients were prospectively studied to determine the performance of urine D-arabinitol/L-arabinitol (DA/LA) ratio in diagnosing invasive candidiasis. Ten evaluable febrile neutropenic patients had proven invasive candidiasis and elevated DA/LA ratios were found in 5. Invasive candidiasis with normal DA/LA ratios was most frequently due to Candida krusei infection. This Candida species is a non-producer of arabinitol. Only 4 of 81 febrile neutropenic patients given either antifungal prophylaxis or empiric antifungal treatment had elevated DA/LA ratios. Only 1 of 15 HIV positive patients with either oropharyngeal or esophageal candidiasis had elevated DA/LA ratios. Widespread use of fluconazole prophylaxis in bone marrow transplantation patients at the study hospital has led to an increased prevalence of C. krusei infection. This is the likely reason for the low sensitivity of the test in proven and suspected invasive Candida infections reported here. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Applications of accurate, high-precision Pb isotope ratio measurement by multi-collector ICP-MS

The isotope composition of Ph is difficult to determine accurately due to the lack of a stable normalisation ratio. Double and triple-spike addition techniques provide one solution and presently yield the most accurate measurements. A number of recent studies have claimed that improved accuracy and precision could also be achieved by multi-collector ICP-MS (MC-ICP-MS) Pb-isotope analysis using the addition of Tl of known isotope composition to Pb samples. In this paper, we verify whether the known isotope composition of Tl can be used for correction of mass discrimination of Pb with an extensive dataset for the NIST standard SRM 981, comparison of MC-ICP-MS with TIMS data, and comparison with three isochrons from different geological environments. When all our NIST SRM 981 data are normalised with one constant Tl-205/Tl-203 of 2.38869, the following averages and reproducibilities were obtained: Pb-207/Pb-206=0.91461+/-18; Pb-208/Ph-206 = 2.1674+/-7; and (PbPh)-Pb-206-Ph-204 = 16.941+/-6. These two sigma standard deviations of the mean correspond to 149, 330, and 374 ppm, respectively. Accuracies relative to triple-spike values are 149, 157, and 52 ppm, respectively, and thus well within uncertainties. The largest component of the uncertainties stems from the Ph data alone and is not caused by differential mass discrimination behaviour of Ph and Tl. In routine operation, variation of sample introduction memory and production of isobaric molecular interferences in the spectrometer's collision cell currently appear to be the ultimate limitation to better reproducibility. Comparative study of five different datasets from actual samples (bullets, international rock standards, carbonates, metamorphic minerals, and sulphide minerals) demonstrates that in most cases geological scatter of the sample exceeds the achieved analytical reproducibility. We observe good agreement between TIMS and MC-ICP-MS data for international rock standards but find that such comparison does not constitute the ultimate. test for the validity of the MC-ICP-MS technique. Two attempted isochrons resulted in geological scatter (in one case small) in excess of analytical reproducibility. However, in one case (leached Great Dyke sulphides) we obtained a true isochron (MSWD = 0.63) age of 2578.3 +/- 0.9 Ma, which is identical to and more precise than a recently published U-Pb zircon age (2579 3 Ma) for a Great Dyke websterite [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 180 (2000) 1-12]. Reproducibility of this age by means of an isochron we regard as a robust test of accuracy over a wide dynamic range. We show that reliable and accurate Pb-isotope data can be obtained by careful operation of second-generation MC-ICP magnetic sector mass spectrometers. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting plant leaf area production: shoot assimilate accumulation and partitioning, and leaf area ratio, are stable for a wide range of sorghum population densities

Predicting plant leaf area production is required for modelling carbon balance and tiller dynamics in plant canopies. Plant leaf area production can be studied using a framework based on radiation intercepted, radiation use efficiency (RUE) and leaf area ratio (LAR) (ratio of leaf area to net above-ground biomass). The objective of this study was to test this framework for predicting leaf area production of sorghum during vegetative development by examining the stability of the contributing components over a large range of plant density. Four densities, varying from 2 to 16 plants m(-2), were implemented in a field experiment. Plants were either allowed to tiller or were maintained as uniculm by systematic tiller removal. In all cases, intercepted radiation was recorded daily and leaf area and shoot dry matter partitioning were quantified weekly at individual culm level. Up to anthesis, a unique relationship applied between fraction of intercepted radiation and leaf area index, and between shoot dry weight accumulation and amount of intercepted radiation, regardless of plant density. Partitioning of shoot assimilate between leaf, stem and head was also common across treatments up to anthesis, at both plant and culm levels. The relationship with thermal time (TT) from emergence of specific leaf area (SLA) and LAR of tillering plants did not change with plant density. In contrast, SLA of uniculm plants was appreciably lower under low-density conditions at any given TT from emergence. This was interpreted as a consequence of assimilate surplus arising from the inability of the plant to compensate by increasing the leaf area a culm could produce. It is argued that the stability of the extinction coefficient, RUE and plant LAR of tillering plants observed in these conditions provides a reliable way to predict leaf area production regardless of plant density. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

New fluorescence parameters for monitoring photosynthesis in plants - 1. The effect of illumination on the fluorescence parameters of the JIP-test

Chlorophyll fluorescence measurements have a wide range of applications from basic understanding of photosynthesis functioning to plant environmental stress responses and direct assessments of plant health. The measured signal is the fluorescence intensity (expressed in relative units) and the most meaningful data are derived from the time dependent increase in fluorescence intensity achieved upon application of continuous bright light to a previously dark adapted sample. The fluorescence response changes over time and is termed the Kautsky curve or chlorophyll fluorescence transient. Recently, Strasser and Strasser (1995) formulated a group of fluorescence parameters, called the JIP-test, that quantify the stepwise flow of energy through Photosystem II, using input data from the fluorescence transient. The purpose of this study was to establish relationships between the biochemical reactions occurring in PS II and specific JIP-test parameters. This was approached using isolated systems that facilitated the addition of modifying agents, a PS II electron transport inhibitor, an electron acceptor and an uncoupler, whose effects on PS II activity are well documented in the literature. The alteration to PS II activity caused by each of these compounds could then be monitored through the JIP-test parameters and compared and contrasted with the literature. The known alteration in PS II activity of Chenopodium album atrazine resistant and sensitive biotypes was also used to gauge the effectiveness and sensitivity of the JIP-test. The information gained from the in vitro study was successfully applied to an in situ study. This is the first in a series of four papers. It shows that the trapping parameters of the JIP-test were most affected by illumination and that the reduction in trapping had a run-on effect to inhibit electron transport. When irradiance exposure proceeded to photoinhibition, the electron transport probability parameter was greatly reduced and dissipation significantly increased. These results illustrate the advantage of monitoring a number of fluorescence parameters over the use of just one, which is often the case when the F-V/F-M ratio is used.

Partitioned likelihood support and the evaluation of data set conflict

In simultaneous analyses of multiple data partitions, the trees relevant when measuring support for a clade are the optimal tree, and the best tree lacking the clade (i.e., the most reasonable alternative). The parsimony-based method of partitioned branch support (PBS) forces each data set to arbitrate between the two relevant trees. This value is the amount each data set contributes to clade support in the combined analysis, and can be very different to support apparent in separate analyses. The approach used in PBS can also be employed in likelihood: a simultaneous analysis of all data retrieves the maximum likelihood tree, and the best tree without the clade of interest is also found. Each data set is fitted to the two trees and the log-likelihood difference calculated, giving partitioned likelihood support (PLS) for each data set. These calculations can be performed regardless of the complexity of the ML model adopted. The significance of PLS can be evaluated using a variety of resampling methods, such as the Kishino-Hasegawa test, the Shimodiara-Hasegawa test, or likelihood weights, although the appropriateness and assumptions of these tests remains debated.

A major quantitative trait locus for CD4-CD8 ratio is located on chromosome 11

CD4-CD8 ratio is an important diagnostic measure of immune system functioning. In particular, CD4-CD8 ratio predicts the time taken for progression of HIV infection to acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and the long-term survival of AIDS patients. To map genes that regulate differences between healthy individuals in CD4-CD8 ratio, we typed 757 highly polymorphic microsatellite markers at an average spacing of similar to5 cM across the genome in 405 pairs of dizygotic twins at ages 12, 14 and 16. We used multipoint variance components linkage analysis to test for linkage between marker loci and CD4-CD8 ratio at each age. We found suggestive evidence of linkage on chromosome 11p in 12-year-old twins (LOD=2.55, P=0.00031) and even stronger evidence of linkage in the same region at age 14 (LOD 3.51, P=0.00003). Possible candidate genes include CD5 and CD6, which encode cell membrane proteins involved in the positive selection of thymocytes. We also found suggestive evidence of linkage at other areas of the genome including regions on chromosomes 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 12, 13, 15, 17 and 22.

The aldosterone-renin ratio in screening for primary aldosteronism

Recognition that primary aldosteronism (PAL) is a common specifically treatable form of hypertension and that most patients are normokalemic has led to a marked increase in demand for aldosterone/renin ratio (ARR) testing as a means of screening for this disorder. The value of this screening test depends on an appreciation of many factors (such as diet, posture, time of day, presence of hypokalemia, medications, age, and renal function), which can affect the results, on the care with which these factors are either controlled or their effects taken into account, and on access to reliable and reproducible assays for renin and aldosterone. Even then, physiological day-to-day variability reduces the value of a single estimation, and repeated testing is necessary before a decision that PAL is highly likely (warranting further testing) or highly unlikely can be made. Provided that testing of aldosterone suppressibility is always carried out to confirm or exclude the diagnosis, and the subtype is determined by hybrid gene testing and adrenal venous sampling, wide application of the ARR can have a major beneficial clinical impact with improved therapeutic outcomes, including possible cure in those with unilateral disease.

Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.