Hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer risk in California

Numerous studies have documented increased breast cancer risks with hormone replacement therapy (HRT), but these do not give a woman her specific absolute risk for the remainder of her life. This article estimates the magnitude of the effect of HRT on breast cancer incidence in California and calculates a woman's cumulative risk of breast cancer with different formulations and durations of HRT use. The effects of HRT on the underlying breast cancer incidence were estimated using the attributable fraction method, applying HRT prevalence data from the 2001 California Health Interview Survey and published rates of higher relative risk (RR) from HRT use from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) study and Million Women's Survey (MWS). The annual number of breast cancers potentially attributable to HRT in California was estimated, along with individual cumulative risk of breast cancer for various ages to 79 years according to HRT use, duration, and formulation. Using the WHI data, 829 of 19,000 breast cancers (4.3%) in California may be attributable to HRT This figure increases to 3401 (17.4%) when the MWS RRs are applied. Use of estrogen-only HRT or short-term (approximately 5 years) use of combined HRT has a minimal effect on the cumulative risk calculated to the age of 79 years; application of the MWS data to a Californian woman commencing HRT at the age of 50 years (no HRT, 8.5%; estrogen only, 8.6%; combined, 9.1%). Prolonged (approximately 10 years) use of combined HRT increases the cumulative risk to 10.3%. This article demonstrates that HRT will generate a small additional risk of breast cancer in an individual. The reduction in perimenopausal symptoms may be considered sufficient to warrant this extra risk. However, this view needs to be balanced because the small increases in individual risk will be magnified, producing a noticeable change in population cancer caseload where HRT use is high.

An analysis of valve re-replacement after aortic valve replacement with biologic devices

Biologic valve re-replacement was examined in a series of 1343 patients who underwent aortic valve replacement at The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, with a cryopreserved or 4 degrees C stored allograft valve or a xenograft valve, A parametric model approach was used to simultaneously model the competing risks of death without re-replacement and re-replacement before death, One hundred eleven patients underwent a first re-replacement for a variety of reasons (69 patients with xenograft valves, 28 patients with 4 degrees C stored allograft valves, and 14 patients with cryopreserved allograft valves), By multivariable analysis younger age at operation was associated with xenograft, 4 degrees C stored allograft, and cryopreserved allograft valve re-replacement, However, this effect was examined in the context of longer survival of younger patients, which increases their exposure to the risk of re-replacement as compared with that in older patients whose decreased survival reduced their probability of requiring valve re-replacement, In patients older than 60 years at the time of aortic valve replacement, the probability of re-replacement (for any reason) before death was similar for xenografts and cryopreserved allograft valves but higher for 4 degrees C stored valves, However, in patients younger than 60 years, the probability of re-replacement at any time during the remainder of the life of the patient was lower with the cryopreserved allograft valve compared with the xenograft valve and 4 degrees C stored allografts.

Metastatic lesions in the joint associated with acute inflammatory arthritis after dendritic cell immunotherapy for metastatic melanoma

A 47 year old man undergoing immunotherapy for metastatic melanoma with autologous dendritic cells pulsed with autologous tumour peptide and hepatitis a surface antigen developed acute left ankle arthritis. Gout and acute infection were excluded, and an autoimmune aetiology or occult metastasis were considered. The arthritis initially subsided with indomethacin, but the symptoms recurred 2 months later, and magnetic resonance imaging demonstrated metastatic melanoma of the left talus. Immunohistochemical staining of a cerebral metastatic deposit biopsied 1 week after the onset of arthritis demonstrated T-cell and macrophage infiltration of the tumour. In addition, the patient developed melanoma-specific delayed type hypersensitivity and cytotoxic T-cell responses after vaccination. Thus, the monoarthritis represented an 'appropriate' inflammatory response directed against metastatic melanoma. (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Fitting mixtures of Kent distributions to aid in joint set identification

When examining a rock mass, joint sets and their orientations can play a significant role with regard to how the rock mass will behave. To identify joint sets present in the rock mass, the orientation of individual fracture planer can be measured on exposed rock faces and the resulting data can be examined for heterogeneity. In this article, the expectation-maximization algorithm is used to lit mixtures of Kent component distributions to the fracture data to aid in the identification of joint sets. An additional uniform component is also included in the model to accommodate the noise present in the data.

Adult Growth Hormone Deficiency. What does the newest hormone replacement therapy do?

All patients with known pituitary or hypothalamic disease, or surgery or radiation treatment to the area could have growth hormone deficiency. Growth hormone deficiency in adults is an approved indication for recombinant growth hormone treatment in Australia. Diagnosis currently requires measurement of growth hormone response to insulin hypoglycaemia. Many patients have dramatic improvements in body composition, functional capacity and psychological wellbeing following recombinant human growth hormone replacement. (author abstract)

Power of the joint segregation analysis method for testing mixed major-gene and polygene inheritance models of quantitative traits

Understanding the genetic architecture of quantitative traits can greatly assist the design of strategies for their manipulation in plant-breeding programs. For a number of traits, genetic variation can be the result of segregation of a few major genes and many polygenes (minor genes). The joint segregation analysis (JSA) is a maximum-likelihood approach for fitting segregation models through the simultaneous use of phenotypic information from multiple generations. Our objective in this paper was to use computer simulation to quantify the power of the JSA method for testing the mixed-inheritance model for quantitative traits when it was applied to the six basic generations: both parents (P-1 and P-2), F-1, F-2, and both backcross generations (B-1 and B-2) derived from crossing the F-1 to each parent. A total of 1968 genetic model-experiment scenarios were considered in the simulation study to quantify the power of the method. Factors that interacted to influence the power of the JSA method to correctly detect genetic models were: (1) whether there were one or two major genes in combination with polygenes, (2) the heritability of the major genes and polygenes, (3) the level of dispersion of the major genes and polygenes between the two parents, and (4) the number of individuals examined in each generation (population size). The greatest levels of power were observed for the genetic models defined with simple inheritance; e.g., the power was greater than 90% for the one major gene model, regardless of the population size and major-gene heritability. Lower levels of power were observed for the genetic models with complex inheritance (major genes and polygenes), low heritability, small population sizes and a large dispersion of favourable genes among the two parents; e.g., the power was less than 5% for the two major-gene model with a heritability value of 0.3 and population sizes of 100 individuals. The JSA methodology was then applied to a previously studied sorghum data-set to investigate the genetic control of the putative drought resistance-trait osmotic adjustment in three crosses. The previous study concluded that there were two major genes segregating for osmotic adjustment in the three crosses. Application of the JSA method resulted in a change in the proposed genetic model. The presence of the two major genes was confirmed with the addition of an unspecified number of polygenes.

The influence of age on weight-bearing joint reposition sense of the knee

Knee joint-position sensitivity has been shown to decline with increasing age, with much of the research reported in the literature investigating this age effect in non-weight-bearing (NWB) conditions. However, little data is available in the more functional position of weight-bearing conditions. The objective of this study was to identify the influence of age on the accuracy and nature of knee joint-position sense (JPS) in both full weight-bearing (FWB) and partial weight-bearing (PWB) conditions and to determine the effect of lower-extremity dominance on knee JPS. Sixty healthy subjects from three age groups (young: 20-35 years old, middle-aged: 40-55 years, and older: 60-75 years) were assessed. Tests were conducted on both the right and left legs to examine the ability of subjects to correctly reproduce knee angles in an active criterion-active repositioning paradigm. Knee angles were measured in degrees using an electromagnetic tracking device, Polhemus 3Space Fastrak, that detected positions of sensors placed on the test limb. Errors in FWB knee joint repositioning did not increase with age, but significant age-related increases in knee joint-repositioning error were found in PWB. It was found that elderly subjects tended to overshoot the criterion angle more often than subjects from the young and middle-aged groups. Subjects in all three age groups performed better in FWB than in PWB. Differences between the stance-dominant (STD) and skill-dominant (SKD) legs did not reach significance. Results demonstrated that for, normal pain-free individuals, there is no age-related decline in knee JPS in FWB, although an age effect does exist in PWB. This outcome challenges the current view that a generalised decline in knee joint proprioception occurs with age. In addition, lower-limb dominance is not a factor in acuity of knee JPS.

An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.