Effect of periparturient diseases accompanied by excessive vulval discharge and weaning to mating interval on sow reproductive performance

Objective To evaluate the effect of periparturient disease accompanied by vulval discharge, and weaning-to-mating intervals, on sow fertility and litter size. Design Reproductive data were collected and analysed from 19 Hungarian swine herds over a 4 year period. Conception rates, farrowing rates and litter sizes of sows with periparturient disease accompanied by vulval discharge were used to evaluate the relationship between duration of vulval discharge and subsequent fertility and litter size. The possibility of interactions between weaning-to-mating intervals and duration of vulval discharges was investigated to determine if there was any effect on subsequent fertility and litter size. Results and conclusions Both parity 1 and parity 2 to 8 sows having had periparturient disease accompanied by vulval discharge in excess of 6 days duration had significantly (P < 0.001) lower subsequent fertility (conception, farrowing and adjusted farrowing rates) compared with sows of similar parity where the duration of vulval discharge was < 4 or 4 to 6 days. There was no difference in fertility rates between sows, in both parity categories, with vulval discharge for < 4 days compared with 4 to 6 days. A duration of vulval discharge in excess of 6 days in parity 1 sows significantly reduced litter size (total born and live-born) in subsequent farrowings, but not in parity 2 to 8 sows. There was no interaction between the duration of vulval discharge and post-weaning to mating intervals. However sows with weaning to mating intervals between 7 and 10 days had smaller (P < 0.001) subsequent litter sizes compared with 3 to 6 or 11 to 14 day intervals. It was concluded that the duration of vulval discharge in excess of 6 days was an indication of a severe persistent endometritis adversely affecting fertility of sows.

Interval training program optimization in highly trained endurance cyclists

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of three different high-intensity interval training (HIT) regimens on endurance performance in highly trained endurance athletes. Methods: Before, and after 2 and 4 wk of training, 38 cyclists and triathletes (mean +/- SD; age = 25 +/- 6 yr; mass = 75 +/- 7 kg; (V)over dot O-2peak = 64.5 +/- 5.2 mL.kg(-1).min(-1)) performed: 1) a progressive cycle test to measure peak oxygen consumption ((V)over dotO(2peak)) and peak aerobic power output (PPO), 2) a time to exhaustion test (T-max) at their (V)over dotO(2peak) power output (P-max), as well as 3) a 40-kin time-trial (TT40). Subjects were matched and assigned to one of four training groups (G(1), N = 8, 8 X 60% T-max P-max, 1:2 work:recovery ratio; G(2), N = 9, 8 X 60% T-max at P-max, recovery at 65% HRmax; G(3), N = 10, 12 X 30 s at 175% PPO, 4.5-min recovery; G(CON), N = 11). In addition to G(1) G(2), and G(3) performing HIT twice per week, all athletes maintained their regular low-intensity training throughout the experimental period. Results: All HIT groups improved TT40 performance (+4.4 to +5.8%) and PPO (+3.0 to +6.2%) significantly more than G(CON) (-0.9 to + 1.1 %; P < 0.05). Furthermore, G(1) (+5.4%) and G(2) (+8.1%) improved their (V)over dot O-2peak significantly more than G(CON) (+ 1.0%; P < 0.05). Conclusion: The present study has shown that when HIT incorporates P-max as the interval intensity and 60% of T-max as the interval duration, already highly trained cyclists can significantly improve their 40-km time trial performance. Moreover, the present data confirm prior research, in that repeated supramaximal HIT can significantly improve 40-km time trial performance.

Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Rock fracture mean trace length estimation and confidence interval calculation using maximum likelihood methods

There has been a resurgence of interest in the mean trace length estimator of Pahl for window sampling of traces. The estimator has been dealt with by Mauldon and Zhang and Einstein in recent publications. The estimator is a very useful one in that it is non-parametric. However, despite some discussion regarding the statistical distribution of the estimator, none of the recent works or the original work by Pahl provide a rigorous basis for the determination a confidence interval for the estimator or a confidence region for the estimator and the corresponding estimator of trace spatial intensity in the sampling window. This paper shows, by consideration of a simplified version of the problem but without loss of generality, that the estimator is in fact the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and that it can be considered essentially unbiased. As the MLE, it possesses the least variance of all estimators and confidence intervals or regions should therefore be available through application of classical ML theory. It is shown that valid confidence intervals can in fact be determined. The results of the work and the calculations of the confidence intervals are illustrated by example. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Induction in the timed interval calculus

The Timed Interval Calculus, a timed-trace formalism based on set theory, is introduced. It is extended with an induction law and a unit for concatenation, which facilitates the proof of properties over trace histories. The effectiveness of the extended Timed Interval Calculus is demonstrated via a benchmark case study, the mine pump. Specifically, a safety property relating to the operation of a mine shaft is proved, based on an implementation of the mine pump and assumptions about the environment of the mine. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.