Causality detection on US mutual fund movements using evolutionary subset time-series

In this paper we develop an evolutionary kernel-based time update algorithm to recursively estimate subset discrete lag models (including fullorder models) with a forgetting factor and a constant term, using the exactwindowed case. The algorithm applies to causality detection when the true relationship occurs with a continuous or a random delay. We then demonstrate the use of the proposed evolutionary algorithm to study the monthly mutual fund data, which come from the 'CRSP Survivor-bias free US Mutual Fund Database'. The results show that the NAV is an influential player on the international stage of global bond and stock markets.

On labour market dualism in the Lewis model: A comment

In a special issue of this journal commemorating the 50th anniversary of W. Arthur Lewis's (The Manchester School, Vol. 28 (1954), No. 2, pp. 139-191) seminal paper, the Lewis model is treated as a model of labour market dualism (Fields, The Manchester School, Vol. 72 (2004), No. 6, pp. 724-735). This interpretation is flawed for a number of reasons. First, it overemphasizes the role ascribed by Lewis to intersectoral earnings differentials in his original model. Second, it fails to acknowledge that a major shortcoming of the model was its inability to account for the widening intersectoral earnings differential observed across a wide range of developing economies. For Lewis himself this was one of the 'major theoretical puzzles of the period' (1979, p. 150). Third, it ignores Lewis's subsequent revision of the model (Lewis, The Manchester School, Vol. 47 (1979), No. 3, pp. 211-229) that, ironically, incorporates a dual labour market to resolve this puzzle. However, for Lewis the critical issue was dualism within the modern sector, not, as Fields understands it, labour market dualism between the modern and traditional sectors. Fields's appreciation of the contribution of the Lewis model to understanding the process of wage determination in developing economies is therefore misplaced.

Attitudes and management of alcohol problems in general practice: Descriptive analysis based on findings of a world health organization international collaborative survey

Aims: To determine if general practitioners' (GPs) experience of education on alcohol, support in their working environment for intervening with alcohol problems, and their attitudes have an impact on the number of patients they manage with alcohol problems. Methods: 1300 GPs from nine countries were surveyed with a postal questionnaire as part of a World Health Organization (WHO) collaborative study. Results: GPs who received more education on alcohol (OR = 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.7), who perceived that they were working in a supportive environment (OR = 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.9), who expressed higher role security in working with alcohol problems (OR = 2.0; 95% CI, 1.5-2.5) and who reported greater therapeutic commitment to working with alcohol problems (OR = 1.4: 95% CI, 1.1-1.7) were more likely to manage patients with alcohol-related harm. Conclusion: Both education and support in the working environment need to be provided to enhance the involvement of GPs in the management of alcohol problems.