Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Visual Biology of Hawaiian Coral Reef Fishes. III. Environmental Light and an Integrated Approach to the Ecology of Reef Fish Vision

In the previous two papers in this three-part series, we have examined visual pigments, ocular media transmission, and colors of the coral reef fish of Hawaii. This paper first details aspects of the light field and background colors at the microhabitat level on Hawaiian reefs and does so from the perspective and scale of fish living on the reef. Second, information from all three papers is combined in an attempt to examine trends in the visual ecology of reef inhabitants. Our goal is to begin to see fish the way they appear to other fish. Observations resulting from the combination of results in all three papers include the following. Yellow and blue colors on their own are strikingly well matched to backgrounds on the reef such as coral and bodies of horizontally viewed water. These colors, therefore, depending on context, may be important in camouflage as well as conspicuousness. The spectral characteristics of fish colors are correlated to the known spectral sensitivities in reef fish single cones and are tuned for maximum signal reliability when viewed against known backgrounds. The optimal positions of spectral sensitivity in a modeled dichromatic visual system are generally close to the sensitivities known for reef fish. Models also predict that both UV-sensitive and red-sensitive cone types are advantageous for a variety of tasks. UV-sensitive cones are known in some reef fish, red-sensitive cones have yet to be found. Labroid colors, which appear green or blue to us, may he matched to the far-red component of chlorophyll reflectance for camouflage. Red cave/hole dwelling reef fish are relatively poorly matched to the background they are often viewed against but this may be visually irrelevant. The model predicts that the task of distinguishing green algae from coral is optimized with a relatively long wavelength visual pigment pair. Herbivorous grazers whose visual pigments are known possess the longest sensitivities so far found. Labroid complex colors are highly contrasting complementary colors close up but combine, because of the spatial addition, which results from low visual resolution, at distance, to match background water colors remarkably well. Therefore, they are effective for simultaneous communication and camouflage.

A coupled knowledge-based expert system for design of liquid-retaining structures

This paper describes a coupled knowledge-based system (KBS) for the design of liquid-retaining structures, which can handle both the symbolic knowledge processing based on engineering heuristics in the preliminary synthesis stage and the extensive numerical crunching involved in the detailed analysis stage. The prototype system is developed by employing blackboard architecture and a commercial shell VISUAL RULE STUDIO. Its present scope covers design of three types of liquid-retaining structures, namely, a rectangular shape with one compartment, a rectangular shape with two compartments and a circular shape. Through custom-built interactive graphical user interfaces, the user is directed throughout the design process, which includes preliminary design, load specification, model generation, finite element analysis, code compliance checking and member sizing optimization. It is also integrated with various relational databases that provide the system with sectional properties, moment and shear coefficients and final member details. This system can act as a consultant to assist novice designers in the design of liquid-retaining structures with increase in efficiency and optimization of design output and automated record keeping. The design of a typical example of the liquid-retaining structure is also illustrated. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

SimuMap: a computational system for spatial modelling

The paper presents a computational system based upon formal principles to run spatial models for environmental processes. The simulator is named SimuMap because it is typically used to simulate spatial processes over a mapped representation of terrain. A model is formally represented in SimuMap as a set of coupled sub-models. The paper considers the situation where spatial processes operate at different time levels, but are still integrated. An example of such a situation commonly occurs in watershed hydrology where overland flow and stream channel flow have very different flow rates but are highly related as they are subject to the same terrain runoff processes. SimuMap is able to run a network of sub-models that express different time-space derivatives for water flow processes. Sub-models may be coded generically with a map algebra programming language that uses a surface data model. To address the problem of differing time levels in simulation, the paper: (i) reviews general approaches for numerical solvers, (ii) considers the constraints that need to be enforced to use more adaptive time steps in discrete time specified simulations, and (iii) scaling transfer rates in equations that use different time bases for time-space derivatives. A multistep scheme is proposed for SimuMap. This is presented along with a description of its visual programming interface, its modelling formalisms and future plans. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diversification economies and specialisation efficiencies in a mixed food and coffee smallholder farming system in Papua New Guinea

Smallholder farming systems in Papua New Guinea are characterised by an integrated set of cash cropping and subsistence food cropping activities. In the Highlands provinces, the subsistence food crop sub-system is dominated by sweet potato production. Coffee dominates the cash cropping sub-system, but a limited number of food crops are also grown for cash sale. The dynamics between sub-systems can influence the scope for complementarity between, and technical efficiency of, their operations, especially in light of the seasonality of demand for household labour and management inputs within the farming system. A crucial element of these dynamic processes is diversification into commercial agricultural production, which can influence factor productivity and the efficiency of crop production where smallholders maintain a strong production base in subsistence foods. In this study we use survey data from households engaged in coffee and food crop production in the Benabena district of Eastern Highlands Province to derive technical efficiency indices for each household over two years. A stochastic input distance function approach is used to establish whether diversification economies exist and whether specialisation in coffee, subsistence food or cash food production significantly influences technical efficiency on the sampled smallholdings. Diversification economics are weakly evident between subsistence food production and both coffee and cash food production, but diseconomies of diversification are discerned between coffee and cash food production. A number of factors are tested for their effects on technical efficiency. Significant technical efficiency gains are made from diversification among broad cropping enterprises.

Integrated actions of transforming growth factor-beta(1) and connective tissue growth factor in renal fibrosis

Matrix accumulation in the renal tubulointerstitium is predictive of a progressive decline in renal function. Transforming growth factor-beta(1) (TGF-beta(1)) and, more recently, connective tissue growth factor (CTGF) are recognized to play key roles in mediating the fibrogenic response, independently of the primary renal insult. Further definition of the independent and interrelated effects of CTGF and TGF-beta(1) is critical for the development of effective antifibrotic strategies. CTGF (20 ng/ml) induced fibronectin and collagen IV secretion in primary cultures of human proximal tubule cells (PTC) and cortical fibroblasts (CF) compared with control values (P < 0.005 in all cases). This effect was inhibited by neutralizing antibodies to either TGF-beta or to the TGF-beta type II receptor (TbetaRII). TGF-beta(1) induced a greater increase in fibronectin and collagen IV secretion in both PTC (P < 0.01) and CF (P < 0.01) compared with that observed with CTGF alone. The combination of TGF-beta(1) and CTGF was additive in their effects on both PTC and CF fibronectin and collagen IV secretion. TGF-beta(1) (2 ng/ml) stimulated CTGF mRNA expression within 30 min, which was sustained for up to 24 h, with a consequent increase in CTGF protein (P < 0.05), whereas CTGF had no effect on TGF-beta(1) mRNA or protein expression. TGF-beta(1) (2 ng/ml) induced phosphorylated (p)Smad-2 within 15 min, which was sustained for up to 24 h. CTGF had a delayed effect on increasing pSmad-2 expression, which was evident at 24 h. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated the key dependence of the fibrogenic actions of CTGF on TGF-beta. It has further uniquely demonstrated that CTGF requires TGF-beta, signaling through the TbetaRII in both PTCs and CFs, to exert its fibrogenic response in this in vitro model.

Optimization of integrated chemical-biological degradation of a reactive azo dye using response surface methodology

The integrated chemical-biological degradation combining advanced oxidation by UV/H2O2 followed by aerobic biodegradation was used to degrade C.I. Reactive Azo Red 195A, commonly used in the textile industry in Australia. An experimental design based on the response surface method was applied to evaluate the interactive effects of influencing factors (UV irradiation time, initial hydrogen peroxide dosage and recirculation ratio of the system) on decolourisation efficiency and optimizing the operating conditions of the treatment process. The effects were determined by the measurement of dye concentration and soluble chemical oxygen demand (S-COD). The results showed that the dye and S-COD removal were affected by all factors individually and interactively. Maximal colour degradation performance was predicted, and experimentally validated, with no recirculation, 30 min UV irradiation and 500 mg H2O2/L. The model predictions for colour removal, based on a three-factor/five-level Box-Wilson central composite design and the response surface method analysis, were found to be very close to additional experimental results obtained under near optimal conditions. This demonstrates the benefits of this approach in achieving good predictions while minimising the number of experiments required. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Polyethism and comparability of termite choice assays in a model system using Microcerotermes turneri (Termitidae : Termitinae): Implications for standardised testing techniques

Traditional measures of termite food preference assess consequences of foraging behavior such as wood consumption, aggregation and/or termite survivorship. Although studies have been done to investigate the specifics of foraging behavior this is not generally integrated into choice assay experiments. Here choice assays were conducted with small isolated (orphaned) groups of workers and compared with choice assays involving foragers from whole nests (non-orphaned) in the laboratory. Aggregation to two different wood types was used as a measure of preference. Specific worker caste and instars participating in initial exploration were compared between assay methods, with samples of termites taken from nest carton material and sites where termites were feeding. Aggregation results differ between choice assay techniques. Castes and instars responsible for initial exploration, as determined in whole nest trials, were not commonly found exploring in isolated group trials, nor were they numerous in termites taken from active feeding sites. Consequently the use of small groups of M. turneri worker termites extracted from active feeding sites may not be appropriate for use in choice assays.

Development of a web-service-agents-based family wealth management system

The roiling financial markets, constantly changing tax law and increasing complexity of planning transaction increase the demand of aggregated family wealth management (FWM) services. However, current trend of developing such advisory systems is mainly focusing on financial or investment side. In addition, these existing systems lack of flexibility and are hard to be integrated with other organizational information systems, such as CRM systems. In this paper, a novel architecture of Web-service-agents-based FWM systems has been proposed. Multiple intelligent agents are wrapped as Web services and can communicate with each other via Web service protocols. On the one hand, these agents can collaborate with each other and provide comprehensive FWM advices. On the other hand, each service can work independently to achieve its own tasks. A prototype system for supporting financial advice is also presented to demonstrate the advances of the proposed Webservice- agents-based FWM system architecture.