Programming internet based DAI applications in Qu-Prolog

This paper presents the unique collection of additional features of Qu-Prolog, a variant of the Al programming language Prolog, and illustrates how they can be used for implementing DAI applications. By this we mean applications comprising communicating information servers, expert systems, or agents, with sophisticated reasoning capabilities and internal concurrency. Such an application exploits the key features of Qu-Prolog: support for the programming of sound non-clausal inference systems, multi-threading, and high level inter-thread message communication between Qu-Prolog query threads anywhere on the internet. The inter-thread communication uses email style symbolic names for threads, allowing easy construction of distributed applications using public names for threads. How threads react to received messages is specified by a disjunction of reaction rules which the thread periodically executes. A communications API allows smooth integration of components written in C, which to Qu-Prolog, look like remote query threads.

Identifying rate-limiting nodes in large-scale cortical networks for visuospatial processing: an illustration using fMRI

With the advent of functional neuroimaging techniques, in particular functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we have gained greater insight into the neural correlates of visuospatial function. However, it may not always be easy to identify the cerebral regions most specifically associated with performance on a given task. One approach is to examine the quantitative relationships between regional activation and behavioral performance measures. In the present study, we investigated the functional neuroanatomy of two different visuospatial processing tasks, judgement of line orientation and mental rotation. Twenty-four normal participants were scanned with fMRI using blocked periodic designs for experimental task presentation. Accuracy and reaction time (RT) to each trial of both activation and baseline conditions in each experiment was recorded. Both experiments activated dorsal and ventral visual cortical areas as well as dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. More regionally specific associations with task performance were identified by estimating the association between (sinusoidal) power of functional response and mean RT to the activation condition; a permutation test based on spatial statistics was used for inference. There was significant behavioral-physiological association in right ventral extrastriate cortex for the line orientation task and in bilateral (predominantly right) superior parietal lobule for the mental rotation task. Comparable associations were not found between power of response and RT to the baseline conditions of the tasks. These data suggest that one region in a neurocognitive network may be most strongly associated with behavioral performance and this may be regarded as the computationally least efficient or rate-limiting node of the network.

Stochastic structure and individual-tree growth models

The majority of past and current individual-tree growth modelling methodologies have failed to characterise and incorporate structured stochastic components. Rather, they have relied on deterministic predictions or have added an unstructured random component to predictions. In particular, spatial stochastic structure has been neglected, despite being present in most applications of individual-tree growth models. Spatial stochastic structure (also called spatial dependence or spatial autocorrelation) eventuates when spatial influences such as competition and micro-site effects are not fully captured in models. Temporal stochastic structure (also called temporal dependence or temporal autocorrelation) eventuates when a sequence of measurements is taken on an individual-tree over time, and variables explaining temporal variation in these measurements are not included in the model. Nested stochastic structure eventuates when measurements are combined across sampling units and differences among the sampling units are not fully captured in the model. This review examines spatial, temporal, and nested stochastic structure and instances where each has been characterised in the forest biometry and statistical literature. Methodologies for incorporating stochastic structure in growth model estimation and prediction are described. Benefits from incorporation of stochastic structure include valid statistical inference, improved estimation efficiency, and more realistic and theoretically sound predictions. It is proposed in this review that individual-tree modelling methodologies need to characterise and include structured stochasticity. Possibilities for future research are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecology - Is coral bleaching really adaptive?

From an experiment in which corals are transplanted between two depths on a Panamanian coral reef, Baker1 infers that bleaching may sometimes help reef corals to survive environmental change. Although Baker's results hint at further mechanisms by which reef-building corals may acclimatize to changing light conditions, we do not consider that the evidence supports his inference.

Phylogeny and evolution of anomalous roots in Daviesia (Fabaceae : Mirbelieae)

The phylogeny of the Australian legume genus Daviesia was estimated using sequences of the internal transcribed spacers of nuclear ribosomal DNA. Partial congruence was found with previous analyses using morphology, including strong support for monophyly of the genus and for a sister group relationship between the clade D. pachyloma and the rest of the genus. A previously unplaced bird-pollinated species, anceps + D. D. epiphyllum, was well supported as sister to the only other bird-pollinated species in the genus, D. speciosa, indicating a single origin of bird pollination in their common ancestor. Other morphological groups within Daviesia were not supported and require reassessment. A strong and previously unreported sister clade of Daviesia consists of the two monotypic genera Erichsenia and Viminaria. These share phyllode-like leaves and indehiscent fruits. The evolutionary history of cord roots, which have anomalous secondary thickening, was explored using parsimony. Cord roots are limited to three separate clades but have a complex history involving a small number of gains (most likely 0-3) and losses (0-5). The anomalous structure of cord roots ( adventitious vascular strands embedded in a parenchymatous matrix) may facilitate nutrient storage, and the roots may be contractile. Both functions may be related to a postfire resprouting adaptation. Alternatively, cord roots may be an adaptation to the low-nutrient lateritic soils of Western Australia. However, tests for association between root type, soil type, and growth habit were equivocal, depending on whether the variables were treated as phylogenetically dependent (insignificant) or independent ( significant).

Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Monte Carlo evidence on cointegration and causation

The small sample performance of Granger causality tests under different model dimensions, degree of cointegration, direction of causality, and system stability are presented. Two tests based on maximum likelihood estimation of error-correction models (LR and WALD) are compared to a Wald test based on multivariate least squares estimation of a modified VAR (MWALD). In large samples all test statistics perform well in terms of size and power. For smaller samples, the LR and WALD tests perform better than the MWALD test. Overall, the LR test outperforms the other two in terms of size and power in small samples.

Supporting contexts in program refinement

A program can be refined either by transforming the whole program or by refining one of its components. The refinement of a component is, for the main part, independent of the remainder of the program. However, refinement of a component can depend on the context of the component for information about the variables that are in scope and what their types are. The refinement can also take advantage of additional information, such as any precondition the component can assume. The aim of this paper is to introduce a technique, which we call program window inference, to handle such contextual information during derivations in the refinement calculus. The idea is borrowed from a technique, called window inference, for handling context in theorem proving. Window inference is the primary proof paradigm of the Ergo proof editor. This tool has been extended to mechanize refinement using program window inference. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Simpson's paradox: A logically benign, empirically treacherous hydra

This article examines Simpson's paradox as applied to the theory of probabilites and percentages. The author discusses possible flaws in the paradox and compares it to the Sure Thing Principle, statistical inference, causal inference and probabilistic analyses of causation.

Platyhelminth phylogenetics - a key to understanding parasitism?

The comparative method, the inference of biological processes from phylogenetic patterns, is founded on the reliability of the phylogenetic tree. In attempting to apply the comparative method to the understanding of the evolution of parasitism in the phylum Platyhelminthes, we have highlighted several points we consider to be of value along with many problems. We discuss four of these topics. Firstly, we view the group at a phylum level, in particular discussing the importance of establishing the sister taxon to the obligate parasite group, the Neodermata, for addressing such questions as the monophyly, parasitism or the endo or ectoparasitic nature of the early parasites. The variety of non-congruent phylogenetic trees presented so far, utilising either or both morphological and molecular data, gives rise to the suggestion that any evolutionary scenarios presented at this stage be treated as interesting hypotheses rather than well-supported theories. Our second point of discussion is the conflict between morphological and molecular estimates of monogenean evolution. The Monogenea presents several well-established morphological autapomorphies, such that morphology consistently estimates the group as monophyletic, whereas molecular sequence analyses indicate paraphyly, with different genes giving different topologies. We discuss the problem of reconciling gene and species trees. Thirdly, we use recent phylogenetic results on the tapeworms to interpret the evolution of strobilation, proglottization, segmentation and scolex structure. In relation to the latter, the results presented indicate that the higher cestodes are diphyletic, with one branch difossate and the other tetrafossate. Finally, we use a SSU rDNA phylogenetic tree of the Trematoda as a basis for the discussion of an aspect of the digenean life-cycle, namely the nature of the first intermediate host. Frequent episodes of host-switching, between gastropod and bivalve hosts or even into annelids, are indicated.

The nature and evolution of the association among digeneans, molluscs and fishes

Patterns of association of digenean families and their mollusc and vertebrate hosts are assessed by way of a new database containing information on over 1000 species of digeneans for lift-cycles and over 5000 species from fishes. Analysis of the distribution of digenean families in molluscs suggests that the group was associated primitively with gastropods and that infection of polychaetes, bivalves and scaphopods are all the results of host-switching. For the vertebrates. infections of agnathans and chondrichthyans are apparently the result of host-switching from teleosts. For digenean families the ratio of orders of fishes infected to superfamilies of molluscs infected ranges from 0.5 (Mesometridae) to 16 (Bivesiculidae) and has a mean of 5.6. Individual patterns of host association of 13 dipenean families and superfamilies are reviewed. Two, Bucephalidae and Sanguinicolidae. are exceptional in infecting a range of first intermediate hosts qualitatively as broad as their range of definitive hosts. No well-studied taxon shows narrower association with vertebrate than with mollusc clades. The range of definitive hosts of digeneans is characteristically defined by eco-physiological similarity rather than phylogenetic relationship. The range of associations of digenean families with mollusc taxa is generally much narrower. These data are considered in the light of ideas about the significance of different forms of host association. If Manter's Second Rule (the longer the association with a host group, the mure pronounced the specificity exhibited by the parasite group) is invoked, then the data may suggest that the Digenea first parasitised molluscs before adopting vertebrate hosts. This interpretation is consistent with most previous ideas about the evolution of the Digenea but contrary to current interpretations based on the monophyly of the Neodermata. The basis of Manter's Second Rule is. however, considered too flimsy for this interpretation to be robust. Problems of the inference of the evolution of patterns of parasitism in the Neodermata al-e discussed and considered so intractable that the truth may be presently unknowable. (C) 2001 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of alcohol consumption on indices of iron stores and of iron stores on alcohol intake markers

Background: Alcohol increases body iron stores. Alcohol and iron may increase oxidative stress and the risk of alcohol-related liver disease. The relationship between low or safe levels of alcohol use and indices of body iron stores, and the factors that affect the alcohol-iron relationship, have not been fully characterized. Other aspects of the biological response to alcohol use have been reported to depend on iron status. Methods: We have measured serum iron, transferrin, and ferritin as indices of iron stores in 3375 adult twin subjects recruited through the Australian Twin Registry. Information on alcohol use and dependence and smoking was obtained from questionnaires and interviews. Results: Serum iron and ferritin increased progressively across classes of alcohol intake. The effects of beer consumption were greater than those of wine or spirits. Ferritin concentration was significantly higher in subjects who had ever been alcohol dependent. There was no evidence of interactions between HFE genotype or body mass index and alcohol. Alcohol intake-adjusted carbohydrate-deficient transferrin was increased in women in the lowest quartile of ferritin results, whereas adjusted gamma -glutamyltransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase values were increased in subjects with high ferritin. Conclusions: Alcohol intake at low level increases ferritin and, by inference, body iron stores. This may be either beneficial or harmful, depending on circumstances. The response of biological markers of alcohol intake can be affected by body iron stores; this has implications for test sensitivity and specificity and for variation in biological responses to alcohol use.

On surrogate methods for detecting lateral gene transfer

Surrogate methods for detecting lateral gene transfer are those that do not require inference of phylogenetic trees. Herein I apply four such methods to identify open reading frames (ORFs) in the genome of Escherichia coli K12 that may have arisen by lateral gene transfer. Only two of these methods detect the same ORFs more frequently than expected by chance, whereas several intersections contain many fewer ORFs than expected. Each of the four methods detects a different non-random set of ORFs. The methods may detect lateral ORFs of different relative ages; testing this hypothesis will require rigorous inference of trees. (C) 2001 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science BN. All rights reserved.

Optimal input states and feedback for interferometric phase estimation

We derive optimal N-photon two-mode input states for interferometric phase measurements. Under canonical measurements the phase variance scales as N-2 for these states, as compared to N-1 or N-1/2 for states considered bq previous authors. We prove, that it is not possible to realize the canonical measurement by counting photons in the outputs of the interferometer, even if an adjustable auxiliary phase shift is allowed in the interferometer. However. we introduce a feedback algorithm based on Bayesian inference to control this auxiliary phase shift. This makes the measurement close to a canonical one, with a phase variance scaling slightly above N-2. With no feedback, the best result (given that the phase to be measured is completely unknown) is a scaling of N-1. For optimal input states having up to four photons, our feedback scheme is the best possible one, but for higher photon numbers more complicated schemes perform marginally better.