Building better wildlife-habitat models

Wildlife-habitat models are an important tool in wildlife management toda?, and by far the majority of these predict aspects of species distribution (abundance or presence) as a proxy measure of habitat quality. Unfortunately, few are tested on independent data, and of those that are, few show useful predictive st;ill. We demonstrate that six critical assumptions underlie distribution based wildlife-habitat models, all of which must be valid for the model to predict habitat quality. We outline these assumptions in a mete-model, and discuss methods for their validation. Even where all sis assumptions show a high level of validity, there is still a strong likelihood that the model will not predict habitat quality. However, the meta-model does suggest habitat quality can be predicted more accurately if distributional data are ignored, and variables more indicative of habitat quality are modelled instead.

Strong genetic structuring in a habitat specialist, the Oxleyan Pygmy Perch Nannoperca oxleyana

This study used allozyme and mitochondrial DNA variation to examine genetic structure in the Oxleyan Pygmy Perch Nannoperca oxleyana. This small-bodied freshwater fish has a very restricted distribution occurring only in some small coastal streams in south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales. It was expected that subpopulations may contain little genetic variation and be highly differentiated from one another. The results, based on allozyme and mitochondrial DNA control region variation were in agreement with these expectations. Allozyme variation was very low overall, with only one locus showing variation at most sites. The high differentiation was because a different locus tended to be polymorphic at each site. Mitochondrial variation within sites was also low, but some sites had unique haplotypes. The patterns of similarity among mitochondrial DNA haplotypes were not as expected from geographical proximity alone. In particular, although some northern sites had unique haplotypes, four sites spread along 200 km of coastline were remarkably similar, sharing the same common haplotype at similar frequencies. We suggest that these four streams may have had a confluence relatively recently, possibly when sea levels were lower, 8000-10 000 BP.

Effects of habitat modification in mangroves on the structure of mollusc and crab assemblages

The abundance and species richness of mollusc and crab assemblages were examined in a subtropical mangrove forest in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia, which has been disturbed and damaged by the construction of a wooden boardwalk and a path. Sections of the forest immediately adjacent to the boardwalk and path were compared with reference areas to determine whether changes to the small-scale structural complexity within the forest affected the benthic fauna. The disturbed area was characterised by having 65-80% fewer pneumatophores, significantly fewer species and individuals of molluscs, but significantly more species and individuals of crabs than the reference areas. The abundance of mangrove pneumatophores and the attached epiphytic algae were manipulated at two sites to determine whether observed differences in these features could account for the differences in the assemblage of molluscs in the disturbed area of the forest compared with reference areas. Five experimental treatments were used: undisturbed controls, pneumatophore removals (abundance reduced by ca. 65%), epiphytic algal removals (algae removed from ca. 65% of pneumatophores), pneumatophore disturbance controls and algal disturbance controls. The experimental reduction of the abundance of mangrove pneumatophores and the associated epiphytic algae led to significant declines (by as much as 83%) in the number of molluscs utilising the substratum in the modified plots. There was no significant difference in the abundance of molluscs in the pneumatophore and algal removal plots suggesting any effect was primarily related to removal of the epiphytic algae from the surface of the pneumatophores. The responses by the biota to the changes in the physical environment demonstrate that even relatively small-scale modifications to the physical structure of subtropical mangrove forests can lead to significant effects on the diversity and abundance of macrobenthic organisms in these habitats. Such modifications have the potential to cause cascading effects at higher trophic levels with a deterioration in the value of these habitats as nursery and feeding grounds. Future efforts at conservation of these estuarine environments must focus on the prevention or reduction of modifications to the physical structure and integrity of the system, rather than just on the prevention of loss of entire patches of habitat. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Between-year fluctuations in schizophrenia birth rate and associations with the Southern Oscillation Index, cloud cover and sunshine

Our group have recently proposed that low prenatal vitamin D may be a risk-modifying factor for schizophrenia. Climate variability impacts on vitamin D levels in a population via fluctuations in the amount of available UV radiation. In order to explore this hypothesis, we examined fluctuations in the birthrates for people with schizophrenia born between 1920 and 1967 and three sets of variables strongly associated with UV radiation. These included: (a) the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a marker of El Nino which is the most prominent meteorological factor that influences Queensland weather: (b) measures of cloud cover and (c) measures of sunshine. Schizophrenia births were extracted from the Queensland Mental Health register and corrected for background population birth rates. Schizophrenia birth rates had several apparently non-random features in common with the SO1. The prominent SO1 fluctuation event that occurred between 1937 and 1943 is congruent with the most prominent fluctuation in schizophrenia birth rates. The relatively flat profile of SOI activity between 1927 and 1936 also corresponds to the flattest period in the schizophrenia time series. Both time series have prominent oscillations in the 3 ~, year range between 1946 and 1960. Significant associations between schizophrenia birth rates and measures of both sunshine and cloud cover were identified,and all three time series shared periodicity in the 3-4 year range. The analyses suggest that the risk of schizophrenia is higher for those born during times of increased cloud cover,reduced sunshine and positive SO1. These ecological analyses provide initial support for the vitamin D hypothesis, however alternative non-genetic candidate exposures also need to be considered. Other sites with year-to-year fluctuations in cloud cover and sunshine should examine patterns of association between these climate variables and schizophrenia birth rates. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Inequitable distribution of general practitioners in Australia: estimating need through the Robin Hood Index

Objective: From Census data, to document the distribution of general practitioners in Australia and to estimate the number of general practitioners needed to achieve an equitable distribution accounting for community health need. Methods: Data on location of general practitioners, population size and crude mortality by statistical division (SD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The number of patients per general practitioner by SD was calculated and plotted. Using crude mortality to estimate community health need, a ratio of the number of general practitioners per person:mortality was calculated for all Australia and for each SD (the Robin Hood Index). From this, the number of general practitioners needed to achieve equity was calculated. Results: In all, 26,290 general practitioners were identified in 57 SDs. The mean number of people per general practitioner is 707, ranging from 551 to 1887. Capital city SDs have most favourable ratios. The Robin Hood Index for Australia is 1, and ranges from 0.32 (relatively under-served) to 2.46 (relatively over-served). Twelve SDs (21%) including all capital cities and 65% of all Australians, have a Robin Hood Index > 1. To achieve equity per capita 2489 more general practitioners (10% of the current workforce) are needed. To achieve equity by the Robin Hood Index 3351 (13% of the current workforce) are needed. Conclusions: The distribution of general practitioners in Australia is skewed. Nonmetropolitan areas are relatively underserved. Census data and the Robin Hood Index could provide a simple means of identifying areas of need in Australia.

Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

The line structure of balanced ternary designs with block size three, index three and rho(2) = 1, 2

In this paper necessary and sufficient conditions for a vector to be the fine structure of a balanced ternary design with block size 3, index 3 and rho(2) = 1 and 2 are determined with one unresolved case.

Relationships between body mass index and well-being in young Australian women

OBJECTIVE: To explore relationships between body mass index (BMI, kg/m(2)) and indicators of health and well-being in young Australian women. DESIGN: Population based cohort study-baseline cross sectional data. SUBJECTS: 14,779 women aged 18-23 who participated in the baseline survey of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health in 1996. MEASUREMENTS: Self-reported height, weight, medical conditions, symptoms and SF-36. RESULTS: The majority of women (68%) had a BMI in the range 18.5-

Does habitat modification affect oviposition by the salt marsh mosquito, Ochlerotatus vigilax (Skuse) (Diptera : Culicidae)?

Studies were conducted at sites in south-cast Queensland, Australia, to investigate the effect of habitat modification for mosquito control on the distribution of eggshells of the salt marsh mosquito, Ochlerotatus vigilax (Skuse). Modifications were mainly tunnelling, but an Open Marsh Water Management (OMWM) site and a grid-ditched site were also included. There were two separate experimental designs: one was data collected Before and After (BA) modification and the other was for other sites with a Treatment and Control (TC) experimental design. For the BA data, there were significant reductions in eggshells after modification. Eggshells were generally fewer after modification in areas which were close to unrestricted tidal flushing. A sandy substrate and vegetation changes which resulted in reduced Sporobolus virginicus or mixed Sporobolus and Sarcocornia quinqueflora also contributed to the effect. In the TC experiment, there was no effect of modification at the tunnelled site, eggshells were fewer at the OMWM site, but there were more eggshells at the grid-ditched site. There was some general indication that recent oviposition activity was reduced in sites that had been modified, evidenced by a relatively small proportion of young (dark coloured) eggshells.

A note on the decomposition of the health concentration index

In recent work, the concentration index has been widely used as a measure of income-related health inequality. The purpose of this note is to illustrate two different methods for decomposing the overall health concentration index using data collected from a Short Form (SF-36) survey of the general Australian population conducted in 1995. For simplicity, we focus on the physical functioning scale of the SF-36. Firstly we examine decomposition 'by component' by separating the concentration index for the physical functioning scale into the ten items on which it is based. The results show that the items contribute differently to the overall inequality measure, i.e. two of the items contributed 13% and 5%, respectively, to the overall measure. Second, to illustrate the 'by subgroup' method we decompose the concentration index by employment status. This involves separating the population into two groups: individuals currently in employment; and individuals not currently employed. We find that the inequality between these groups is about five times greater than the inequality within each group. These methods provide insights into the nature of inequality that can be used to inform policy design to reduce income related health inequalities. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

History of vegetation and habitat change in the Austral-Asian region

Over 1000 marine and terrestrial pollen diagrams and Some hundreds of vertebrate faunal sequences have been studied in the Austral-Asian region bisected by the PEPII transect, from the Russian arctic extending south through east Asia, Indochina, southern Asia, insular Southeast Asia (Sunda), Melanesia, Australasia (Sahul) and the western south Pacific. The majority of these records are Holocene but sufficient data exist to allow the reconstruction of the changing biomes over at least the past 200,000 years. The PEPII transect is free of the effects of large northern ice caps yet exhibits vegetational change in glacial cycles of a similar scale to North America. Major processes that can be discerned are the response of tropical forests in both lowlands and uplands to glacial cycles, the expansion of humid vegetation at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and the change in faunal and vegetational controls as humans occupy the region. There is evidence for major changes in the intensity of monsoon and El Nino-Southern oscillation variability both on glacial-interglacial and longer time scales with much of the region experiencing a long-term trend towards more variable and/or drier climatic conditions. Temperature variation is most marked in high latitudes and high altitudes with precipitation providing the major climate control in lower latitude, lowland areas. At least some boundary shifts may be the response of vegetation to changing CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Numerous questions of detail remain, however, and current resolution is too coarse to examine the degree of synchroneity of millennial scale change along the transect. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Does health service utilisation vary by remoteness? South Australian population data and the Accessibility and Remoteness Index of Australia

Objective: To compare rates of self-reported use of health services between rural, remote and urban South Australians. Methods: Secondary data analysis from a population-based survey to assess health and well-being, conducted in South Australia in 2000. In all, 2,454 adults were randomly selected and interviewed using the computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) system. We analysed health service use by Accessibility and Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA) category. Results: There was no statistically significant difference in the median number of uses of the four types of health services studied across ARIA categories. Significantly fewer residents of highly accessible areas reported never using primary care services (14.4% vs. 22.2% in very remote areas), and significantly more reported high use ( greater than or equal to6 visits, 29.3% vs. 21.5%). Fewer residents of remote areas reported never attending hospital (65.6% vs. 73.8% in highly accessible areas). Frequency of use of mental health services was not statistically significantly different across ARIA categories. Very remote residents were more likely to spend at least one night in a public hospital (15.8%) than were residents of other areas (e.g. 5.9% for highly accessible areas). Conclusion: The self-reported frequency of use of a range of health services in South Australia was broadly similar across ARIA categories. However, use of primary care services was higher among residents of highly accessible areas and public hospital use increased with increasing remoteness. There is no evidence for systematic rural disadvantage in terms of self-reported health service utilisation in this State.

Experience-induced preference for oviposition repellents derived from a non-host plant by a specialist herbivore

Foraging adults of phytophagous insects are attracted by host-plant volatiles and supposedly repelled by volatiles from non-host plants. In behavioural control of pest insects, chemicals derived from non-host plants applied to crops are expected to repel searching adults and thereby reduce egg laying. How experience by searching adults of non-host volatiles affects their subsequent searching and oviposition behaviour has been rarely tested. In laboratory experiments, we examined the effect of experience of a non-host-plant extract on the oviposition behaviour of the diamondback moth (DBM), Plutella xylostella, a specialist herbivore of cruciferous plants. Naive ovipositing DBM females were repelled by an extract of dried leaves of Chrysanthemum morifolium, a non-host plant of DBM, but experienced females were not repelled. Instead they were attracted by host plants treated with the non-host-plant extract and laid a higher proportion of eggs on treated than on untreated host plants. Such behavioural changes induced by experience could lead to host-plant range expansion in phytophagous insects and play an important role in determining outcome for pest management of some behavioural manipulation methods.

(Review) Body mass index and risk of diabetes mellitus in the Asia-Pacific region

Few prospective data from the Asia Pacific region are available relating body mass index to the risk of diabetes. Our objective was to provide reliable age, sex and region specific estimates of the associations between body mass index and diabetes. Twenty-seven cohort studies from Asia, New Zealand and Australia, including 154,989 participants, contributed 1,244,793 person-years of follow-up. Outcome data included a combination of incidence of diabetes (based on blood glucose measurements) and fatal diabetes events. Hazard ratios were calculated from Cox models, stratified by sex and cohort, and adjusted for age at risk and smoking. During follow-up (mean = 8 years), 75 fatal diabetes events and 242 new cases of diabetes were documented. There were continuous positive associations between baseline body mass index and risk of diabetes with each 2 kg/m(2) lower body mass index associated with a 27% (23-30%) lower risk of diabetes. The associations were stronger in younger age groups, and regional comparisons demonstrated slightly stronger associations in Asian than in Australasian cohorts (P = 0.04). This overview provides evidence of a strong continuous association between body mass index and diabetes in the Asia Pacific region. The results indicate considerable potential for reduction in incidence of diabetes with population-wide lowering of body mass index in this region.