High HIV incidence and prevalence among young women in rural South Africa: Developing a cohort for intervention trials

Objective: To measure prevalence and model incidence of HIV infection. Setting: 2013 consecutive pregnant women attending public sector antenatal clinics in 1997 in Hlabisa health district, South Africa. Historical seroprevalence data, 1992-1995. Methods: Serum remaining from syphilis testing was tested anonymously for antibodies to HIV to determine seroprevalence. Two models, allowing for differential mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people, were used. The first used serial seroprevalence data to estimate trends in annual incidence. The second, a maximum likelihood model, took account of changing force of infection and age-dependent risk of infection, to estimate age-specific HIV incidence in 1997. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios (OR) for risk factors for prevalent HIV infection. Results: Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 4% in 1992/1993 to 10% in 1996/1997. In 1997, highest age-specific incidence was 16% among women aged between 20 and 24 years. in 1997, overall prevalence was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-28%) and at 34% was highest among women aged between 20 and 24 years. Young age (<30 years; odds ratio [OR], 2.1; p = .001), unmarried status (OR 2.2; p = .001) and living in less remote parts of the district (OR 1.5; p = .002) were associated with HIV prevalence in univariate analysis. Associations were less strong in multivariate analysis. Partner's migration status was not associated with HIV infection. Substantial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence by clinic was observed (range 17%-31%; test for trend, p = .001). Conclusions: This community is experiencing an explosive HIV epidemic. Young, single women in the more developed parts of the district would form an appropriate cohort to test, and benefit from, interventions such as vaginal microbicides and HIV vaccines.

Erectile dysfunction in general medicine practice: prevalence and clinical correlates

Erectile dysfunction (ED) is a common problem in general medical practice affecting especially the elderly and those with cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus, A study was undertaken by questionnaire distributed to consecutive adult male attendees at 62 general medical practices. 1240 completed questionnaires were available for analysis. The mean age of participants was 56.4 y (range 18 - 91 y). 488 men (39.4%) reported ED: 119 (9.6%) 'occasionally', 110 (8.9%) 'often', and 231 (18.6%) 'all the time' (complete ED). Among 707 men aged 40-69 y 240 (33.9%) reported ED and 84 (11.9%) had complete ED. The prevalence of complete ED increased with age, rising from 2.0% in the 40-49 y age group to 44.9% in the 70-79 y age group. Only 11.6% of men with ED had received treatment. Hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, peripheral vascular disease and diabetes mellitus were frequently associated with ED. 40% of diabetic men aged 60 y or older had ED all the time.

The effects of the Cannabis Expiation Notice System on the prevalence of cannabis use in South Australia: evidence from the National Drug Strategy Household Surveys 1985-95

This study sought to examine the impact of the Cannabis Expiation Notice (CEN) scheme on the prevalence of lifetime and weekly cannabis use in South Australia. Data from five National Drug Strategy Household Surveys between 1985 and 1995 were examined to test for differences in trends in self-reported: (1) lifetime cannabis use; and (2) current weekly cannabis use, after controlling for age and gender, between South Australia and the other states and territories. Between 1985 and 1995, rates of lifetime cannabis use increased in SA from 26% to 36%. There were also significant increases in Victoria (from 26% to 32%), Tasmania (from 21% to 33%) and New South Wales (from 26% to 33%). The increase in South Australia was significantly greater than the average increase throughout the rest of Australia, but the other Australian states differed in their rates of change. Victoria and Tasmania had similar rates of increase to South Australia; New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia showed lower rates of increase; and the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory had high rates that did not change during the period. There was no statistically significant difference between SA and the rest of Australia in the rate of increase in weekly cannabis use. While there was a greater increase in self- reported lifetime cannabis use in South Australia between 1985 and 1995 than in the average of the other Australian jurisdictions it is unlikely that this increase is due to the CEN system, because similar increases occurred in Tasmania and Victoria (where there was no change in the legal status of cannabis use), and there was no increase in the rate of weekly cannabis use in South Australia over the same period.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Weight reduction in patients with chronic HCV reduces circulating insulin levels

Steatosis occurs in >50% of patients with chronic HCV. In patients with viral genotype 3, steatosis may be a cytopathic effect of the virus. However in many patients with HCV, the pathogenesis of steatosis appears to be the same as for patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) ie related to increased body mass index (BMI). We studied the effect of a 12 week weight reduction program on metabolic parameters in subjects with chronic HCV genotype 1 (Group 1, n = 16), genotype 3 (Group 2, n = 13) and patients with NAFLD (Group 3, n = 13). A liver biopsy was performed prior to and 3-6 months after the intervention period in 15 patients. The mean (SD) BMI of subjects in groups 1, 2 and 3 was 30.7 (4.0), 29.0 (5.2) and 33.3 (7.7), respectively. There was no significant difference in the amount of weight loss, change in waist circumference, change in ALT or reduction in steatosis between the 3 groups. Mean (SD) weight loss was 5.1 (3.7) kg. In those patients who lost weight, serum insulin (mean (SD) mU/L) changed from 17.8 (7.8) to 11.5 (4.8) (p = 0.003), 12.4 (5.0) to 8.4 (4.3) (p = 0.02), and 16.9 (7.3) to 17.8 (8.1) (p = 0.76) in Groups 1, 2 and 3, respectively. A small amount of weight loss is associated with a reduction in circulating insulin levels in patients with chronic HCV, particularly in genotype 1. In patients with NAFLD, the lack of a significant decrease in circulating insulin with weight reduction may reflect the higher initial BMI or may be due to the pathogenesis of this disorder.

Prevalence and comorbidity of behavioral problems of children aged three to six: Results of the Braunschweiger Kindergartenstudie

Prevalence and comorbidity of behavioral problems of children aged three to six: Results of the Braunschweiger Kindergartenstudie Objectives: To analyze the frequency of behavioral and emotional problems and comorbidity of kindergarten children in Braunschweig as rated by their parents. Method: The analysis is part of the Braunschweiger Kindergartenstudie. In a sample of N = 809 children aged three to six the parents rated their children using a modified version of the Child Behavior Checklist/CBCL 4-18. Results: The prevalence rates range from 0.5% to 5.0%. The most frequent behavioral problems in kindergarten children were aggressive behavior and attention problems, followed by social problems. The study also provides bidirectional comorbidity rates. Conclusion: Finally the prevalence rates and the implications of the findings for prevention of behavioral problems in children are discussed.

The prevalence, intensities and risk factors associated with geohelminth infection in tea-growing communities of Assam, India

OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence, intensity and associated risk factors for infection with Ascaris, hookworms and Trichuris in three tea-growing communities in Assam, India. METHODS Single faecal samples were collected from 328 individuals and subjected to centrifugal floatation and the Kato Katz quantitation technique and prevalence and intensities of infection with each parasite calculated. Associations between parasite prevalence, intensity and host and environmental factors were then made using both univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS The overall prevalence of Ascaris was 38% [95% confidence interval (CI): 33, 43], and the individual prevalence of hookworm and Trichuris was 43% (95% CI: 38, 49). The strongest predictors for the intensity of one or more geohelminths using multiple regression (P less than or equal to 0.10) were socioeconomic status, age, household crowding, level of education, religion, use of footwear when outdoors, defecation practices, pig ownership and water source. CONCLUSION A universal blanket treatment with broad-spectrum anthelmintics together with promotion of scholastic and health education and improvements in sanitation is recommended for helminth control in the communities under study.

Prevalence of peripheral arterial disease: persistence of excess risk in former smokers

Objective: To determine the age-standardised prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and associated risk factors, particularly smoking. Method: Design: Cross-sectional survey of a randomly selected population. Setting: Metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men aged between 65-83 years. Results: The adjusted response fraction was 77.2%. Of 4,470 men assessed, 744 were identified as having PAD by the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and/or the ankle-brachial index of systolic blood pressure, yielding an age-standardised prevalence of PAD of 15.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.5%, 16.6%). The main risk factors identified in univariate analyses were increasing age, smoking current (OR=3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.1) or former (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.4), physical inactivity (OR=1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7), a history of angina (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.7) and diabetes mellitus (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.6). The multivariate analysis showed that the highest relative risk associated with PAD was current smoking of 25 or more cigarettes daily (OR=7.3, 95% CI 4.2-12.8). In this population, 32% of PAD was attributable to current smoking and a further 40% was attributable to past smoking by men who did not smoke currently. Conclusions: This large observational study shows that PAD is relatively common in older, urban Australian men. In contrast with its relationship to coronary disease and stroke, previous smoking appears to have a long legacy of increased risk of PAD. Implications: This research emphasises the importance of smoking as a preventable cause of PAD.