Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Experimental study of phase equilibria in the PbO-ZnO-"Fe2O3"-(CaO+SiO2) system in air for the lead and zinc blast furnace sinters (CaO/SiO2 weight ratio of 0.933 and PbO/(CaO+SiO2) ratios of 2.0 and 3.2)

Experimental studies on phase equilibria and liquidus in the multicomponent system PbO-ZnO-CaO-SiO2-FeO-Fe2O3 in air have been conducted over the temperature range between 1323 K (1050 degreesC) and 1623 K (1350 degreesC) to characterize the phase relations of the complex slag systems encountered in lead and zinc blast furnace sinters. The liquidus in two pseudoternary sections ZnO-Fe2O3-(PbO + CaO + SiO2) with the CaO/SiO2 weight ratio of 0.933 and PbO/(CaO + SiO2) weight ratios of 2.0 and 3.2 have been constructed.

The effect of the CaO/SiO2 ratio on the phase equilibria in the ZnO-“Fe2O3”-(PbO + CaO + SiO2) system in air: CaO/SiO2 = 0.1, PbO/(CaO + SiO2) = 6.2, and CaO/SiO2 = 0.6, PbO/(CaO + SiO2) = 4.3

Experimental studies on phase equilibria in the multi-component system PbO-ZnO-CaO-SiO2-FeO-Fe2O3 in air have been conducted to characterize the phase relations of a complex slag system used in the oxidation smelting of lead and in typical lead blast furnace sinters. The liquidus in two pseudoternary sections ZnO-Fe2O3-(PbO + CaO + SiO2) with the CaO/SiO2 weight ratio of 0.1 and the PbO/(CaO + SiO2) weight ratio of 6.2, and with CaO/SiO2 weight ratio of 0.6 and the PbO/(CaO + SiO2) weight ratio of 4.3, have been constructed.

The transform likelihood ratio method for rare event simulation with heavy tails

We present a novel method, called the transform likelihood ratio (TLR) method, for estimation of rare event probabilities with heavy-tailed distributions. Via a simple transformation ( change of variables) technique the TLR method reduces the original rare event probability estimation with heavy tail distributions to an equivalent one with light tail distributions. Once this transformation has been established we estimate the rare event probability via importance sampling, using the classical exponential change of measure or the standard likelihood ratio change of measure. In the latter case the importance sampling distribution is chosen from the same parametric family as the transformed distribution. We estimate the optimal parameter vector of the importance sampling distribution using the cross-entropy method. We prove the polynomial complexity of the TLR method for certain heavy-tailed models and demonstrate numerically its high efficiency for various heavy-tailed models previously thought to be intractable. We also show that the TLR method can be viewed as a universal tool in the sense that not only it provides a unified view for heavy-tailed simulation but also can be efficiently used in simulation with light-tailed distributions. We present extensive simulation results which support the efficiency of the TLR method.

A major quantitative trait locus for CD4-CD8 ratio is located on chromosome 11

CD4-CD8 ratio is an important diagnostic measure of immune system functioning. In particular, CD4-CD8 ratio predicts the time taken for progression of HIV infection to acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and the long-term survival of AIDS patients. To map genes that regulate differences between healthy individuals in CD4-CD8 ratio, we typed 757 highly polymorphic microsatellite markers at an average spacing of similar to5 cM across the genome in 405 pairs of dizygotic twins at ages 12, 14 and 16. We used multipoint variance components linkage analysis to test for linkage between marker loci and CD4-CD8 ratio at each age. We found suggestive evidence of linkage on chromosome 11p in 12-year-old twins (LOD=2.55, P=0.00031) and even stronger evidence of linkage in the same region at age 14 (LOD 3.51, P=0.00003). Possible candidate genes include CD5 and CD6, which encode cell membrane proteins involved in the positive selection of thymocytes. We also found suggestive evidence of linkage at other areas of the genome including regions on chromosomes 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 12, 13, 15, 17 and 22.

Temperature-dependent sex ratio in a bird

To our knowledge, there is, so far, no evidence that incubation temperature can affect sex ratios in birds, although this is common in reptiles. Here, we show that incubation temperature does affect sex ratios in megapodes, which are exceptional among birds because they use environmental heat sources for incubation. In the Australian brush-turkey Alectura lathami, a mound-building megapode, more males hatch at low incubation temperatures and more females hatch at high temperatures, whereas the proportion is 1 : 1 at the average temperature found in natural mounds. Chicks from lower temperatures weigh less, which probably affects offspring survival, but are not smaller. Megapodes possess heteromorphic sex chromosomes like other birds, which eliminates temperature-dependent sex determination, as described for reptiles, as the mechanism behind the skewed sex ratios at high and low temperatures. Instead, our data suggest a sex-biased temperature-sensitive embryo mortality because mortality was greater at the lower and higher temperatures, and minimal at the middle temperature where the sex ratio was 1 : 1.

Fourier-domain optical coherence tomography: optimization of signal-to-noise ratio in full space

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is an emerging coherence-domain technique capable of in vivo imaging of sub-surface structures at millimeter-scale depth. Its steady progress over the last decade has been galvanized by a breakthrough detection concept, termed spectral-domain OCT, which has resulted in a dramatic improvement of the OCT signal-to-noise ratio of 150 times demonstrated for weakly scattering objects at video-frame-rates. As we have realized, however, an important OCT sub-system remains sub-optimal: the sample arm traditionally operates serially, i.e. in flying-spot mode. To realize the full-field image acquisition, a Fourier holography system illuminated with a swept-source is employed instead of a Michelson interferometer commonly used in OCT. The proposed technique, termed Fourier-domain OCT, offers a new leap in signal-to-noise ratio improvement, as compared to flying-spot OCT systems, and represents the main thrust of this paper. Fourier-domain OCT is described, and its basic theoretical aspects, including the reconstruction algorithm, are discussed. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The aldosterone-renin ratio in screening for primary aldosteronism

Recognition that primary aldosteronism (PAL) is a common specifically treatable form of hypertension and that most patients are normokalemic has led to a marked increase in demand for aldosterone/renin ratio (ARR) testing as a means of screening for this disorder. The value of this screening test depends on an appreciation of many factors (such as diet, posture, time of day, presence of hypokalemia, medications, age, and renal function), which can affect the results, on the care with which these factors are either controlled or their effects taken into account, and on access to reliable and reproducible assays for renin and aldosterone. Even then, physiological day-to-day variability reduces the value of a single estimation, and repeated testing is necessary before a decision that PAL is highly likely (warranting further testing) or highly unlikely can be made. Provided that testing of aldosterone suppressibility is always carried out to confirm or exclude the diagnosis, and the subtype is determined by hybrid gene testing and adrenal venous sampling, wide application of the ARR can have a major beneficial clinical impact with improved therapeutic outcomes, including possible cure in those with unilateral disease.

Simultaneous determination of delta(33) SV-CDT and delta S-34(V-CDT) using masses 48, 49 and 50 on a continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometer

A new, fast, continuous flow technique is described for the simultaneous determination of 633 S and delta(34)S using SO masses 48, 49 and 50. Analysis time is similar to5min/sample with measurement precision and accuracy better than +/-0.3parts per thousand. This technique, which has been set up using IAEA Ag2S standards S-1, S-2 and S-3, allows for the fast determination of mass-dependent or mass-independent fractionation (MIF) effects in sulfide, organic sulfur samples and possibly sulfate. Small sample sizes can be analysed directly, without chemical pre-treatment. Robustness of the technique for natural versus artificial standards was demonstrated by analysis of a Canon Diablo troilite, which gave a delta(33)S of 0.04parts per thousand and a delta(34)S of -0.06parts per thousand compared to the values obtained for S-1 of 0.07parts per thousand and -0.20parts per thousand, respectively. Two pyrite samples from a banded-iron formation from the 3710 Ma Isua Greenstone Belt were analysed using this technique and yielded MIF (Delta(33)S of 2.45 and 3.31parts per thousand) comparable to pyrite previously analysed by secondary ion probe. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Statistical tests of load-unload response ratio signals by lattice solid model: Implication to tidal triggering and earthquake prediction

Statistical tests of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) signals are carried in order to verify statistical robustness of the previous studies using the Lattice Solid Model (MORA et al., 2002b). In each case 24 groups of samples with the same macroscopic parameters (tidal perturbation amplitude A, period T and tectonic loading rate k) but different particle arrangements are employed. Results of uni-axial compression experiments show that before the normalized time of catastrophic failure, the ensemble average LURR value rises significantly, in agreement with the observations of high LURR prior to the large earthquakes. In shearing tests, two parameters are found to control the correlation between earthquake occurrence and tidal stress. One is, A/(kT) controlling the phase shift between the peak seismicity rate and the peak amplitude of the perturbation stress. With an increase of this parameter, the phase shift is found to decrease. Another parameter, AT/k, controls the height of the probability density function (Pdf) of modeled seismicity. As this parameter increases, the Pdf becomes sharper and narrower, indicating a strong triggering. Statistical studies of LURR signals in shearing tests also suggest that except in strong triggering cases, where LURR cannot be calculated due to poor data in unloading cycles, the larger events are more likely to occur in higher LURR periods than the smaller ones, supporting the LURR hypothesis.

Enhancing the ratio of molecular ions to non-covalent compounds in the electrospray interface of LC-MS in quantitative analysis

A common problem encountered during the development of MS methods for the quantitation of small organic molecules by LGMS is the formation of non-covalently bound species or adducts in the electrospray interface. Often the population of the molecular ion is insignificant compared to those of all other forms of the analyte produced in the electrospray, making it difficult to obtain the sensitivity required for accurate quantitation. We have investigated the effects of the following variables: orifice potential, nebulizer gas flow, temperature, solvent composition and the sample pH on the relative distributions of ions of the types MH+, MNa+, MNH+, and 2MNa(+), where M represents a 4 small organic molecule: BAY 11-7082 ((E)-3-[4-methylphenylsulfonyl]-2-propenenitrile). Orifice potential, solvent composition and the sample pH had the greatest influence on the relative distributions of these ions, making these parameters the most useful for optimizing methods for the quantitation of small molecules.

On the optimal ratio of heavy to light chain genes for efficient recombinant antibody production by CHO cells

Monoclonal antibodies (Mab) are heterotetramers consisting of an equimolar ratio of heavy chain (HC) and light chain (LC) polypeptides. Accordingly, most recombinant Mab expression systems utilize an equimolar ratio of heavy chain (he) to light chain (lc) genes encoded on either one or two plasmids. However, there is no evidence to suggest that this gene ratio is optimal for stable or transient production of recombinant Mab. In this study we have determined the optimal ratio of hc:lc genes for production of a recombinant IgG(4) Mab, cB72.3, by Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells using both empirical and mathematical modeling approaches. Polyethyleneimine-mediated transient expression of cB72.3 at varying ratios of hc:lc genes encoded on separate plasmids yielded an optimal Mab titer at a hc:lc gene ratio of 3:2; a conclusion confirmed by separate mathematical modeling of the Mab folding and assembly process using transient expression data. On the basis of this information, we hypothesized that utilization of he genes at low hc:lc gene ratios is more efficient. To confirm this, cB72.3 Mab was transiently produced by CHO cells at constant he and varying lc gene dose. Under these conditions, Mab yield was increased with a concomitant increase in lc gene dose. To determine if the above findings also apply to stably transfected CHO cells producing recombinant Mab, we compared the intra- and extracellular ratios of HC and LC polypeptides for three GS-CHO cells lines transfected with a 1:1 ratio of hc:lc genes and selected for stable expression of the same recombinant Mab, cB72.3. Intra- and extracellular HC:LC polypeptide ratios ranged from 1:2 to 1:5, less than that observed on transient expression of the same Mab in parental CHO cells using the same vector. In conclusion, our data suggest that the optimal ratio of hc:lc genes used for transient and stable expression of Mab differ. In the case of the latter, we infer that optimal Mab production by stably transfected cells represents a compromise between HC abundance limiting productivity and the requirement for excess LC to render Mab folding and assembly more efficient.

The influence of dietary sodium chloride, Arginine : Lysine ratio, and methionine source on apparent ileal digestibility of arginine and lysine in acutely heat-stressed broilers

The present study was carried out to determine the ileal digestibility of Arg and Lys in acutely heatstressed broilers using diets varying in Arg:Lys ratio, NaCl concentration, and Met Source. Male broilers were maintained at 22degreesC from 21 to 33 d of age and then at 32degreesC from 33 to 38 d of age. From 28 to 38 d of age, birds were fed a diet with an Arg:Lys ratio of 1.05 and 3 g of supplemental NaCl/kg of diet with or without L-arg free base to increase the Arg:Lys to 1.35, and with or without 3 g/kg of additional NaCl. Methionine was supplied as equimolar amounts of DL-Met or 2-hydroxy-4-(methylthio)-butanoic acid in a 2 x 2 x 2 design. At 38 d of age, digesta were collected from the terminal ileum, and amino acid analyses were conducted on feed and digesta samples and compared with acid-insoluble ash (dietary celite) to calculate the apparent ileal digestibilities of Lys and Arg. Increasing the NaCl concentration and the presence of HMB significantly decreased the digestibility of both Arg and Lys, whereas increasing the Arg:Lys ratio increased the digestibility of only Arg but did increase BW gain (P = 0.08). An interaction between dietary NaCl and Arg:Lys ratio as well as the 3-way interaction suggested that dietary NaCl could affect the apparent ileal digestibility of Arg and Lys at certain Arg:Lys ratios and the response may be influenced by the Met source.