A comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific Region

PURPOSE: Many guidelines advocate measurement of total or low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglycerides (TG) to determine treatment recommendations for preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This analysis is a comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Hazard ratios for coronary and cardiovascular deaths by fourths of total cholesterol (TC), LDL, HDL, TG, non-HDL, TC/HDL, and TG/HDL values, and for a one standard deviation change in these variables, were derived in an individual participant data meta-analysis of 32 cohort studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. The predictive value of each lipid variable was assessed using the likelihood ratio statistic. RESULTS: Adjusting for confounders and regression dilution, each lipid variable had a positive (negative for HDL) log-linear association with fatal CHD and CVD. Individuals in the highest fourth of each lipid variable had approximately twice the risk of CHD compared with those with lowest levels. TG and HDL were each better predictors of CHD and CVD risk compared with TC alone, with test statistics similar to TC/HDL and TG/HDL ratios. Calculated LDL was a relatively poor predictor. CONCLUSIONS: While LDL reduction remains the main target of intervention for lipid-lowering, these data support the potential use of TG or lipid ratios for CHD risk prediction. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of air pollution on hospitalizations for cardiovascular disease in elderly people in Australian and New Zealand cities

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to estimate the associations between outdoor air pollution and cardiovascular hospital admissions for the elderly. DESIGN: Associations were assessed using the case-crossover method for seven cities: Auckland and Christchurch, New Zealand; and Brisbane, Canberra, Melbourne, Perth, and Sydney Australia. Results were combined across cities using a random-effects meta-analysis and stratified for two adult age groups: 15-64 years and >= 65 years of age (elderly). Pollutants considered were nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, daily measures of particulate matter (PM) and ozone. Where multiple pollutant associations were found, a matched case-control analysis was used to identify the most consistent association. RESULTS: In the elderly, all pollutants except 03 were significantly associated with five categories or cardiovascular disease admissions. No associations were found for arrhythmia and stroke. For a 0.9-ppm increase in CO, there were significant increases in elderly hospital admissions for total cardiovascular disease (2.2%), all cardiac disease (2.8%), cardiac failure (6.0%), ischemic heart disease (2.3%), and myocardial infarction (2.9%). There was some heterogeneity between cities, possibly due to differences in humidity and the percentage of elderly people. In matched analyses, CO had the most consistent association. CONCLUSIONS. The results suggest that air pollution arising from common emission sources for CO, NO2, and PM (e.g., motor vehicle exhausts) has significant associations with adult cardiovascular hospital admissions, especially in the elderly, at air pollution concentrations below normal health guidelines. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL AND PROFESSIONAL PRACTICE: Elderly populations in Australia need to be protected from air pollution arising from outdoor sources to reduce cardiovascular disease.

Falling incidence of amputations for peripheral occlusive arterial disease in western Australia between 1980 and 1992

Objectives: To assess temporal trends in the incidence of surgical procedures for peripheral occlusive arterial disease (POAD) and associated changes in outcome as measured by the rate of major lower limb amputations for POAD. Design: a retrospective descriptive population-based study was conducted of the geographically isolated population of Western Austrialia between 1980 and 1992. Methods: Vascular procedures with an accompanying diagnosis of POAD were identified in a computerised system of name-identified records of all discharges from hospital for the population. These procedures were detected using relevant codes from the International Classification of Disease and Procedures. Records of angioplasty and thrombolysis procedures were augmented by searches of hospital-based registers of invasive radiological procedures. The data for the remaining procedures were validated by a review of a random sample of medical records. Results: over the 13 years of the study, rates of major amputations fell significantly for in non-amputation vascular surgery for individuals under the age of 60. In addition, rather than an overall rise in surgery there was shift away from sympathectomy and thromboendarterectomy to angioplasty and bypass surgery. Furthermore, an increasing proportion of all major amputations had a prior attempt at arterial reconstruction. Conclusion: These observations suggest the decrease in major amputations for POAD may reflect a fall in the incidence of POAD, possibly aided by move effective surgery, rather than increased rates of vascular surgery.

Declining rates of coronary heart disease in New Zealand and Australia, 1983-1993

The authors report the results of 10 years of monitoring of trends in the rates of major nonfatal and fatal coronary events and in case fatality in Auckland, New Zealand, and in Newcastle and Perth, Australia. Continuous surveillance of all suspected myocardial infarctions and coronary deaths in people aged 35-64 years was undertaken in the three centers as part of the World Health Organization's Multinational Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) Project, For nonfatal definite myocardial infarction, there were statistically significant declines in rates in all centers in both men and women, with estimated average changes between 2.5% and 3.7% per year during the period 1984-1993, Rates of all coronary deaths also declined significantly in all three populations for both men and women. In absolute terms, there was, in general, a greater reduction in prehospital deaths than in deaths after hospitalization. Although 28-day case fatality remains high at between 35% and 50%, in the Australian centers it declined significantly by between 1.0% and 2.9% per year, and in Auckland there was also a small decline, However, since most deaths occur outside the hospital in people without a previous history of coronary heart disease, an increased emphasis on primary prevention is necessary.

Gas-surface interactions in the thermal and sub-thermal regime: A molecular dynamics study

Molecular dynamics simulations are used to study the interaction of low-energy Ar atoms with the Ni(001) surface, Angular scattering distributions, in and out of the plane of incidence, are investigated as a function of incident energy, angles of incidence, crystallographic orientation of the incident beam and surface temperature. The results show a clear transition to the structure scattering regime at around 2 eV. However, at lower energies, two sub-regimes are revealed by the simulations, Far energies up to 250 meV, scattering is mainly diffuse, and significant trapping on the surface is observed, At energies above this level, lobular patterns start to form and trapping decreases with the increase in energy, Generally, there is a weak temperature dependence, but variations in the angle of incidence and/or changes in the crystallographic direction, generate significant changes in the scattering patterns.

Opportunities for the control of coronary heart disease in Australia

Objective: To estimate the number of coronary events that could be prevented in Australia each year by the use of preventive and therapeutic strategies targeted to subgroups of the population based on their levels of risk and need. Methods: Estimates of risk reduction from the published literature, prevalence estimates of elevated risk factor levels from the 1995 National Health Survey and treatment levels from the Australian collaborating centres in the World Health Organization's MONICA Project were used to calculate numbers of coronary events preventable among men and women aged 35-79 years in Australia. Results: Approximately 14,000 coronary events could be avoided each year if the mean level of cholesterol in the population was reduced by 0.5 mmol/L, smoking prevalence was halved and prevalence of physical inactivity was reduced to 25%. This represents a reduction in coronary events of about 40%. Even with less optimistic targets, a reduction of 20% could be attained, while the achievement of some internationally recommended targets could lead to almost 50% reduction. In the short term, aggressive medical treatment of people with elevated levels of risk factors and established coronary disease offers the greatest opportunity for reducing coronary events. Conclusion: A comprehensive approach to reduce levels of behavioural and biological risk factors and improve the use of effective treatment could lead to a large reduction in coronary event rates. In the long term, primary prevention - especially to reduce smoking, lower cholesterol levels and increase exercise - has the potential to reduce the population levels of risk and hence contain the national cost of coronary disease.

Association of bowel movement frequency and use of laxatives with the occurrence of symptomatic gallstone disease in a prospective study of women

OBJECTIVES: The authors prospectively examined the association between bowel movement frequency (used as a proxy for intestinal transit), laxative use, and the risk of symptomatic gallstone disease. METHODS: A total of 79,829 women, aged 36–61 yr, without a history of symptomatic gallstone disease and free of cancer, responded to a mailed questionnaire in 1982 that assessed bowel movement frequency and use of laxatives. Between 1984 and 1996, 4,443 incident cases of symptomatic gallstone disease were documented. Relative risks (RRs) of symptomatic gallstone disease and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS: After controlling for age and established risk factors, the multivariate RRs were, compared to women with daily bowel movements, 0.97 (95% CI 0.86–1.08) for women with bowel movements every third day or less, and 1.00 (95% CI 0.91–1.11) for women with bowel movement more than once daily. No trend was evident. As compared to women who never used laxatives in 1982, a significant modest inverse association was seen for monthly laxative use, with a multivariate RR of 0.84 (95% CI 0.72–0.98), and weekly to daily laxative use was associated with a RR of 0.88 (95% CI 0.78–1.02). CONCLUSIONS: These findings do not support an association between infrequent bowel movements and risk of symptomatic gallstone disease in women, and indicate that simple questions directed at bowel movement frequency are unlikely to enhance our ability to predict risk of symptomatic gallstone disease. The slightly inverse association between use of laxatives and risk of symptomatic gallstone disease may be due to a mechanism that is not related to bowel movement frequency.

A longitudinal study of interleukin-1 gene polymorphisms and periodontal disease in a general adult population

Background: Cross-sectional studies have demonstrated that a specific polymorphism (allele 2 of both IL-1A +4845 and IL-1B +3954) in the IL-1 gene cluster has been associated with an increased susceptibility to severe periodontal disease and to an increased bleeding tendency during periodontal maintenance. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between IL-1 genotype and periodontitis in a prospective longitudinal study in an adult population of essentially European heritage. Methods: From an ongoing study of the Oral Care Research Programme of The University of Queensland, 295 subjects consented to genotyping for IL-1 allele 2 polymorphisms. Probing depths and relative attachment levels were recorded at baseline, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months using the Florida probe. Periodontitis progression at a given site was defined as attachment loss greater than or equal to2 mm at any observation period during the 5 years of the study and the extent of disease progression determined by the number of sites showing attachment loss. Porphyromonas gingivalis, Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans and Prevotella intermedia were detected using ELISA. Results: 38.9% of the subjects were positive for the composite IL-1 genotype. A relationship between the IL-1 positive genotype and increased mean probing pocket depth in non-smokers greater than 50 years of age was found. Further, IL-1 genotype positive smokers and genotype positive subjects with P. gingivalis in their plaque had an increase in the number of probing depths greater than or equal to3.5 mm, There was a consistent trend for IL-1 genotype positive subjects to experience attachment loss when compared with IL-1 genotype negative subjects. Conclusion: The results of this study have shown an interaction of the IL-1 positive genotype with age, smoking and P. gingivalis which suggests that IL-1 genotype is a contributory but non-essential risk factor for periodontal disease progression in this population.

Cigarette smoking and the incidence of Parkinson's disease in two prospective studies

An inverse association between cigarette smoking and idiopathic Parkinson's disease has been reported in several retrospective studies, but prospective evidence is available only for men. We assessed the association between the incidence of Parkinson's disease and smoking in two large prospective cohort studies comprising men and women. New cases of Parkinson's disease were identified in the Nurses' Health Study for 1976-1996, and in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study for 1986-1996. Smoking history was assessed at baseline and updated on subsequent biennial questionnaires. In women, the age-adjusted rate ratios (95% confidence intervals) for Parkinson's disease relative to never-smokers were 0.7 (0.5, 1.0) for past smokers, and 0.4 (0.2, 0.7) for current smokers. In men, the age-adjusted rate ratios for Parkinson's disease relative to never-smokers were 0.5 (0.4, 0.7) for past smokers, and 0.3 (0.1, 0.8) for current smokers. In both cohorts, the strength of the association decreased with time since quitting (among past smokers), increased with number of cigarettes per day (among current smokers), and increased with pack-years of smoking. These prospective findings confirm that an inverse association between smoking and the incidence of Parkinson's disease exists in both men and women.

Experimental investigation of liquid flow shift due to gas cross flow in non-wetted packed beds

An experimental study has been carried out for the gas-liquid two-phase flow in a packed bed simulating conditions of the gas and liquid flows in the lower part of blast furnace. The localised liquid flow phenomenon in presence of gas cross flow, which usually occurs around the cohesive zone and raceway in blast furnace, was investigated in detail. Such liquid flow is characterised in terms of liquid shift distance or liquid shift angle that can effectively be measured by the experiments involved in the current study. It is found that liquid shift angle does not significantly increase or decrease with different packing depth. This finding supports the hypothesis of the force balance model where a vectorial relationship among acting forces, i.e. gas drag force, gravitational force and solid-liquid friction force, and liquid shift angle does exist. Liquid shift angle is inversely proportional to particle size and liquid density, and proportional to square of gas superficial velocity, but is almost independent on liquid flowrate and liquid viscosity. The gas-liquid drag coefficient, an important aspect for quantifying the interaction between gas and liquid flows, was conceptually modified based on the discrete feature of liquid flow through a packed bed and evaluated by the combined theoretical and experimental investigation. Experimental measurements suggest that the gas-liquid drag coefficient is approximately a constant (C-DG(')=5.4+/-1.0) and is independent on liquid properties, gas velocity and packing structure. The result shows a good agreement with previous experimental data and prediction of the existing liquid flow model.