Testing landscape metrics as indicators of habitat loss and fragmentation in continuous eucalypt forests (Queensland, Australia)

Landscape metrics are widely applied in landscape ecology to quantify landscape structure. However, many are poorly tested and require rigorous validation if they are to serve as reliable indicators of habitat loss and fragmentation, such as Montreal Process Indicator 1.1e. We apply a landscape ecology theory, supported by exploratory and confirmatory statistical techniques, to empirically test landscape metrics for reporting Montreal Process Indicator 1.1e in continuous dry eucalypt forests of sub-tropical Queensland, Australia. Target biota examined included: the Yellow-bellied Glider (Petaurus australis); the diversity of nectar and sap feeding glider species including P. australis, the Sugar Glider P. breviceps, the Squirrel Glider P. norfolcensis, and the Feathertail Glider Acrobates pygmaeus; six diurnal forest birds species; total diurnal bird species diversity; and the density of nectar-feeding diurnal bird species. Two scales of influence were considered: the stand-scale (2 ha), and a series of radial landscape extents (500 m - 2 km; 78 - 1250 ha) surrounding each fauna transect. For all biota, stand-scale structural and compositional attributes were found to be more influential than landscape metrics. For the Yellow-bellied Glider, the proportion of trace habitats with a residual element of old spotted-gum/ironbark eucalypt trees was a significant landscape metric at the 2 km landscape extent. This is a measure of habitat loss rather than habitat fragmentation. For the diversity of nectar and sap feeding glider species, the proportion of trace habitats with a high coefficient of variation in patch size at the 750 m extent was a significant landscape metric. None of the landscape metrics tested was important for diurnal forest birds. We conclude that no single landscape metric adequately captures the response of the region's forest biota per se. This poses a major challenge to regional reporting of Montreal Process Indicator 1.1e, fragmentation of forest types.

Biological determinants of extinction risk: why are smaller species less vulnerable?

It is becoming increasingly clear that species of smaller body size tend to be less vulnerable to contemporary extinction threats than larger species, but few studies have examined the mechanisms underlying this pattern. In this paper, data for the Australian terrestrial mammal fauna are used to ask whether higher reproductive output or smaller home ranges can explain the reduced extinction risk of smaller species. Extinct and endangered species do indeed have smaller litters and larger home ranges for their body size than expected under a null model. In multiple regressions, however, only litter size is a significant predictor of extinction risk once body size and phylogeny are controlled for. Larger litters contribute to fast population growth, and are probably part of the reason that smaller species are less extinction-prone. The effect of litter size varies between the mesic coastal regions and the and interior of Australia, indicating that the environment a species inhabits mediates the effect of biology on extinction risk. These results suggest that predicting extinction risk from biological traits is likely to be a complex task which must consider explicitly interactions between biology and environment.

Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction

Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

Extinction times for a general birth, death and catastrophe process

The birth, death and catastrophe process is an extension of the birth-death process that incorporates the possibility of reductions in population of arbitrary size. We will consider a general form of this model in which the transition rates are allowed to depend on the current population size in an arbitrary manner. The linear case, where the transition rates are proportional to current population size, has been studied extensively. In particular, extinction probabilities, the expected time to extinction, and the distribution of the population size conditional on nonextinction (the quasi-stationary distribution) have all been evaluated explicitly. However, whilst these characteristics are of interest in the modelling and management of populations, processes with linear rate coefficients represent only a very limited class of models. We address this limitation by allowing for a wider range of catastrophic events. Despite this generalisation, explicit expressions can still be found for the expected extinction times.

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

In the United States and several other countries., the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including. a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to. model disease explicitly.

Hydrodynamics and mass transfer coefficient in activated sludge aerated stirred column reactor: Experimental analysis and modeling

The aerated stirred reactor (ASR) has been widely used in biochemical and wastewater treatment processes. The information describing how the activated sludge properties and operation conditions affect the hydrodynamics and mass transfer coefficient is missing in the literature. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of flow regime, superficial gas velocity (U-G), power consumption unit (P/V-L), sludge loading, and apparent viscosity (pap) of activated sludge fluid on the mixing time (t(m)), gas hold-up (epsilon), and volumetric mass transfer coefficient (kLa) in an activated sludge aerated stirred column reactor (ASCR). The activated sludge fluid performed a non-Newtonian rheological behavior. The sludge loading significantly affected the fluid hydrodynamics and mass transfer. With an increase in the UG and P/V-L, the epsilon and k(L)a increased, and the t(m), decreased. The E, kLa, and tm,were influenced dramatically as the flow regime changed from homogeneous to heterogeneous patterns. The proposed mathematical models predicted the experimental results well under experimental conditions, indicating that the U-G, P/V-L, and mu(ap) had significant impact on the t(m) epsilon, and k(L)a. These models were able to give the tm, F, and kLa values with an error around +/- 8%, and always less than +/- 10%. (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The consistency of extinction risk classification protocols

Systematic protocols that use decision rules or scores arc, seen to improve consistency and transparency in classifying the conservation status of species. When applying these protocols, assessors are typically required to decide on estimates for attributes That are inherently uncertain, Input data and resulting classifications are usually treated as though they arc, exact and hence without operator error We investigated the impact of data interpretation on the consistency of protocols of extinction risk classifications and diagnosed causes of discrepancies when they occurred. We tested three widely used systematic classification protocols employed by the World Conservation Union, NatureServe, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. We provided 18 assessors with identical information for 13 different species to infer estimates for each of the required parameters for the three protocols. The threat classification of several of the species varied from low risk to high risk, depending on who did the assessment. This occurred across the three Protocols investigated. Assessors tended to agree on their placement of species in the highest (50-70%) and lowest risk categories (20-40%), but There was poor agreement on which species should be placed in the intermediate categories, Furthermore, the correspondence between The three classification methods was unpredictable, with large variation among assessors. These results highlight the importance of peer review and consensus among multiple assessors in species classifications and the need to be cautious with assessments carried out 4), a single assessor Greater consistency among assessors requires wide use of training manuals and formal methods for estimating parameters that allow uncertainties to be represented, carried through chains of calculations, and reported transparently.

Development of a non-intrusive heat transfer coefficient gauge and its application to high pressure die casting Effect of the process parameters

A heat transfer coefficient gauge has been built, obeying particular rules in order to ensure the relevance and accuracy of the collected information. The gauge body is made out of the same materials as the die casting die (H13). It is equipped with six thermocouples located at different depths in the body and with a sapphire light pipe. The light pipe is linked to an optic fibre, which is connected to a monochromatic pyrometer. Thermocouples and pyrometer measurements are recorded with a data logger. A high pressure die casting die was instrumented with one such gauge. A set of 150 castings was done and the data recorded. During the casting, some process parameters have been modified such as piston velocity, intensification pressure, delay before switch to the intensification stage, temperature of the alloy, etc.... The data was treated with an inverse method in order to transform temperature measurements into heat flux density and heat transfer coefficient plots. The piston velocity and the initial temperature of the die seem to be the process parameters that have the greatest influence on the heat transfer. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydrodynamics and mass transfer coefficient in three-phase air-lift reactors containing activated sludge

This study was to investigate the impacts of operating conditions and liquid properties on the hydrodynamics and volumetric mass transfer coefficient in activated sludge air-lift reactors. Experiments were conducted in internal and external air-lift reactors. The activated sludge liquid displayed a non-Newtonian rheological behavior. With an increase in the superficial gas velocity, the liquid circulation velocity, gas holdup and mass transfer coefficient increased, and the gas residence time decreased. The liquid circulation velocity, gas holdup and the mass transfer coefficient decreased as the sludge loading increased. The flow regime in the activated sludge air-lift reactors had significant effect on the liquid circulation velocity and the gas holdup, but appeared to have little impact on the mass transfer coefficient. The experimental results in this study were best described by the empirical models, in which the reactor geometry, superficial gas velocity and/or power consumption unit, and solid and fluid properties were employed. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidence for retarded extinction of aversive learning in anxious children

The habituation to intense acoustic stimuli and the acquisition of differentially conditioned fear were assessed in 53 clinically anxious and 30 non-anxious control children and young adolescents. Anxious children tended to show larger electrodermal responses during habituation, but did not differ in blink startle latency or magnitude. After acquisition training, non-anxious children rated the CS + as more fear provoking and arousing than the CS- whereas the ratings of anxious children did not differ. However, anxious children rated the CS + as more fear provoking after extinction, a difference that was absent in non-anxious children. During extinction training, anxious children displayed larger blink magnitude facilitation during CS + and a trend towards larger electrodermal responses, a tendency not seen in nonanxious children. These data suggest that extinction of fear learning is retarded in anxious children. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extinction times for a birth-death process with two phases

Many populations have a negative impact on their habitat or upon other species in the environment if their numbers become too large. For this reason they are often subjected to some form of control. One common control regime is the reduction regime: when the population reaches a certain threshold it is controlled (for example culled) until it falls below a lower predefined level. The natural model for such a controlled population is a birth-death process with two phases, the phase determining which of two distinct sets of birth and death rates governs the process. We present formulae for the probability of extinction and the expected time to extinction, and discuss several applications. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of assessment type on verbal ratings of conditional stimulus valence and contingency judgments: Implications for the extinction of evaluative learning

Recent research on causal learning found (a) that causal judgments reflect either the current predictive value of a conditional stimulus (CS) or an integration across the experimental contingencies used in the entire experiment and (b) that postexperimental judgments, rather than the CS's current predictive value, are likely to reflect this integration. In the current study, the authors examined whether verbal valence ratings were subject to similar integration. Assessments of stimulus valence and contingencies responded similarly to variations of reporting requirements, contingency reversal, and extinction, reflecting either current or integrated values. However, affective learning required more trials to reflect a contingency change than did contingency judgments. The integration of valence assessments across training and the fact that affective learning is slow to reflect contingency changes can provide an alternative interpretation for researchers' previous failures to find an effect of extinction training on verbal reports of CS valence.