Test-retest reliability of four physical activity measures used in population surveys

Accurate monitoring of prevalence and trends in population levels of physical activity (PA) is a fundamental public health need. Test-retest reliability (repeatability) was assessed in population samples for four self-report PA measures: the Active Australia survey (AA, N=356), the short International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ, N=104), the physical activity items in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS, N=127) and in the Australian National Health Survey (NHS, N=122). Percent agreement and Kappa statistics were used to assess reliability of classification of activity status as 'active', 'insufficiently active' or 'sedentary'. Intraclass correlations (ICCs) were used to assess agreement on minutes of activity reported for each item of each survey and for total minutes. Percent agreement scores for activity status were very good on all four instruments, ranging from 60% for the NHS to 79% for the IPAQ. Corresponding Kappa statistics ranged from 0.40 (NHS) to 0.52 (AA). For individual items, ICCs were highest for walking (0.45 to 0.78) and vigorous activity (0.22 to 0.64) and lowest for the moderate questions (0.16 to 0.44). All four measures provide acceptable levels of test-retest reliability for assessing both activity status and sedentariness, and moderate reliability for assessing total minutes of activity.

Improving precision and reducing bias in biological surveys: estimating false-negative error rates

The use of presence/absence data in wildlife management and biological surveys is widespread. There is a growing interest in quantifying the sources of error associated with these data. We show that false-negative errors (failure to record a species when in fact it is present) can have a significant impact on statistical estimation of habitat models using simulated data. Then we introduce an extension of logistic modeling, the zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) model that permits the estimation of the rate of false-negative errors and the correction of estimates of the probability of occurrence for false-negative errors by using repeated. visits to the same site. Our simulations show that even relatively low rates of false negatives bias statistical estimates of habitat effects. The method with three repeated visits eliminates the bias, but estimates are relatively imprecise. Six repeated visits improve precision of estimates to levels comparable to that achieved with conventional statistics in the absence of false-negative errors In general, when error rates are less than or equal to50% greater efficiency is gained by adding more sites, whereas when error rates are >50% it is better to increase the number of repeated visits. We highlight the flexibility of the method with three case studies, clearly demonstrating the effect of false-negative errors for a range of commonly used survey methods.

The effect of skin examination surveys on the incidence of basal cell carcinoma in a Queensland community sample: A 10-year longitudinal study

Skin cancers pose a significant public health problem in high-risk populations. We have prospectively monitored basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) incidence in a Queensland community over a 10-y period by recording newly treated lesions, supplemented by skin examination surveys. Age-standardized incidence rates of people with new histologically confirmed BCC were 2787 per 100,000 person-years at risk (pyar) among men and 1567 per 100,000 pyar among women, and corresponding tumor rates were 5821 per 100,000 pyar and 2733 per 100,000 pyar, respectively. Incidence rates for men with new SCC were 944 per 100,000 pyar and for women 675 per 100,000 pyar; tumor rates were 1754 per 100,000 pyar and 846 per 100,000 pyar, respectively. Incidence rates of BCC tumors but not SCC tumors varied noticeably according to method of surveillance, with BCC incidence rates based on skin examination surveys around three times higher than background treatment rates. This was mostly due to an increase in diagnosis of new BCC on sites other than the head and neck, arms, and hands associated with skin examination surveys and little to do with advancing the time of diagnosis of BCC on these sites as seen by a return to background rates following the examination surveys. We conclude that BCC that might otherwise go unreported are detected during skin examination surveys and thus that such skin cancer screening can influence the apparent burden of skin cancer.

Diabetes mellitus and serum carotenoids: findings of a population-based study in Queensland, Australia

Background: Epidemiologic evidence suggests that serum carotenoids are potent antioxidants and may play a protective role in the development of chronic diseases including cancers, cardiovascular disease, and inflammatory diseases. The role of these antioxidants in the pathogenesis of diabetes mellitus remains unclear. Objective: This study examined data from a cross-sectional survey to investigate the association between serum carotenoids and type 2 diabetes. Design: Study participants were adults aged >= 25 y (n = 1597) from 6 randomly selected cities and towns in Queensland, Australia. Study examinations conducted between October and December 2000 included fasting plasma glucose, an oral-glucose-tolerance test, and measurement of the serum concentrations of 5 carotenoid compounds. Results: Mean 2-h postload plasma glucose and fasting insulin concentrations decreased significantly with increasing quintiles of the 5 serum carotenoids-alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, beta-cryptoxanthin, lutein/zeaxanthin, and lycopene. Geometric mean concentrations for all serum carotenoids decreased (all decreases were significant except that of lycopene) with declining glucose tolerance status. beta-Carotene had the greatest decrease, to geometric means of 0.59, 0.50, and 0.42 mu mol/L in persons with normal glucose tolerance, impaired glucose metabolism, and type 2 diabetes, respectively (P < 0.01 for linear trend), after control for potential confounders. Conclusions: Serum carotenoids are inversely associated with type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose metabolism. Randomized trials of diets high in carotenoid-rich vegetables and fruit are needed to confirm these results and those from other observational studies. Such evidence would have very important implications for the prevention of diabetes.

Prospective study of physical activity and depressive symptoms in middle-aged women

Background: Although many studies support an inverse association between physical activity (PA) and depressive symptoms, prospective relationships between these variables have been confounded by pre-existing psychological and physical health problems. Methods: This study examined the dose-response relationships between self-reported PA and depressive symptoms, using cross-sectional and prospective data from a population-based cohort of middle-aged women who participated in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) between 1996 and 2001. Participants completed three mailed surveys (SI, 1996; S2, 1998; S3, 2001), which included questions about time spent in walking, moderate- and vigorous-intensity PA, and measures of psychological health (Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale [CESD-10], and Mental health [MH] subscale of the Short Form 36 survey). Relationships between previous (SI, S2), current (S3), and habitual (S1, S2, S3) PA and depressive symptoms were examined, adjusting for sociodemographic and health-related variables (n = 9207). Results: Mean CESD-10 scores decreased, and MH scores increased with increasing levels of previous, current, and habitual activity. Odds ratios for CESD-10 scores >= 10 or MH scores = 60 minutes of moderate-intensity PA per week, compared with those who reported less PA than this. Women who were in the lowest PA category at SI, but who subsequently reported >= 240 metabolic equivalent minutes (MET.mins) per week had lower odds of CESD-10 scores of >= 10 or MH scores

Consistency of epidemiologic estimates

Background: The epidemiology of a disease describes numbers of people becoming incident, being prevalent, recovering, surviving, and dying from the disease or from other causes. As a matter of accounting principle, the inflow, stock, and outflows must be compatible, and if we could observe completely every person involved, the epidemiologic estimates describing the disease would be consistent. Lack of consistency is an indicator for possible measurement error. Methods: We examined the consistency of estimates of incidence, prevalence, and excess mortality of dementia from the Rotterdam Study. We used the incidence and excess mortality estimates to calculate with a mathematical disease model a predicted prevalence, and compared the predicted to the observed prevalence. Results: Predicted prevalence is in most age groups lower than observed, and the difference between them is significant for some age groups. Conclusions: The observed discrepancy could be due to overestimates of prevalence or excess mortality, or an underestimate of incidence, or a combination of all three. We conclude from an analysis of possible causes that it is not possible to say which contributes most to the discrepancy. Estimating dementia incidence in an aging cohort presents a dilemma: with a short follow-up border-line incident cases are easily missed, and with longer follow-up measurement problems increase due to the associated aging of the cohort. Checking for consistency is a useful strategy to signal possible measurement error, but some sources of error may be impossible to avoid.

Dietary patterns and metabolic syndrome - a review of epidemiologic evidence

Metabolic syndrome is associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes, and appears to be widely prevalent in both developed and developing countries. While lifestyle modification is recommended for management of the syndrome, the dietary pattern most beneficial for patients is yet to be ascertained. Original research papers from the Medline database were examined for dietary patterns that may be associated with the syndrome. Three large-scale epidemiological studies were found fitting our criteria. Dietary patterns high in fruit and vegetable content were generally found to be associated with lower prevalence of metabolic syndrome. Diet patterns with high meat intake were frequently associated with components of metabolic syndrome, particularly impaired glucose tolerance. High dairy intake was generally associated with reduced risk for components of metabolic syndrome with some inconsistency in the literature regarding risk of obesity. Minimally processed cereals appeared to be associated with decreased risk of metabolic syndrome, while highly processed cereals with high glycaemic index are associated with higher risk. Fried foods were noticeably absent from any dietary pattern associated with decreased prevalence of metabolic syndrome. The conclusion of this review is that no individual dietary component could be considered wholly responsible for the association of diet with metabolic syndrome. Rather it is the overall quality of the diet that appears to offer protection against lifestyle disease such as metabolic syndrome. Further research is required into conditions, such as overweight and obesity, which may influence the effect of diet on the development of metabolic syndrome.

Belief in dealing with depression alone: Results from community surveys of adolescents and adults

Background: Community surveys have found that some people believe that it is better to deal with depression alone rather than seek help. However, there has been little research into the characteristics of this group. Methods: Data were drawn from three Australian surveys: (1) a national survey of 1001 adults aged 18+ years; (2) a school survey of 552 students aged 14-16 years from two regions; (3) a survey of 577 young people aged 12-17 years from the Melbourne region. In all three surveys, participants who believed it would be helpful to deal with depression alone were contrasted with those who believed it would be harmful in terms of sociodemographic characteristics, recognition of depression in a vignette, contact with people who experienced depression, beliefs about treatments, beliefs about using substances, beliefs about long-term outcomes, and beliefs about causes. Results: In both adolescents and adults, belief in dealing with depression alone was associated with male gender, less favourable views about mental health professionals, more favourable views about using substances to deal with depression, and a more positive expectation about the outcome if treatment is not sought. Adolescents believing in dealing with depression alone had more favourable views about some potential helpers, such as church workers and pharmacists. In adults, but not adolescents, there was an association with the belief that depression is caused by personal weakness. Limitations: The surveys did not directly ask about reasons for believing that dealing with depression alone would be helpful and did not assess actual help-seeking. Conclusions: Factors encouraging dealing with depression alone are a belief that it is a self-limiting disorder, that substances are an effective way to deal with it and, in adults, that depression is due to personal weakness. Consistent with previous research, males are an important target group for encouraging seeking help to deal with depression. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.