A real options based method for power system planning

A deregulated electricity market is characterized with uncertainties, with both long and short terms. As one of the major long term planning issues, the transmission expansion planning (TEP) is aiming at implementing reliable and secure network support to the market participants. The TEP covers two major issues: technical assessment and financial evaluations. Traditionally, the net present value (NPV) method is the most accepted for financial evaluations, it is simple to conduct and easy to understand. Nevertheless, TEP in a deregulated market needs a more dynamic approach to incorporate a project's management flexibility, or the managerial ability to adapt in response to unpredictable market developments. The real options approach (ROA) is introduced here, which has clear advantage on counting the future course of actions that investors may take, with understandable results in monetary terms. In the case study, a Nordic test system has been testified and several scenarios are given for network expansion planning. Both the technical assessment and financial evaluation have been conducted in the case study.

The Politics of Permaculture: Towards an Ecologically Situated Approach to Resource Policy and Governance

The contributions to environmental politics of Torgerson, Oelschlager, Dryzek, Harrè and others, converge in their respective acknowledgements that the shift towards an ‘ecologically situated’ approach to environmental policy, including resource governance, will require the emergence and consolidation of a new lingua franca of environmental discourse. In this paper, I suggest that an extrapolation of permaculture ethics may provide a gambit through which such a discourse may be assembled and organised. I examine six key signifying elements derived from Orr and Capra’s approach to ecological literacy – network, nested system, flow, cycle, development and dynamic balance – and explore the implications that these might have for resource governance and policy, including the (re)framing of assessment indicators, energy auditing, resource management and integrated planning and development.

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

A hybrid planning method for transmission networks in a deregulated environment

The reconstruction of power industries has brought fundamental changes to both power system operation and planning. This paper presents a new planning method using multi-objective optimization (MOOP) technique, as well as human knowledge, to expand the transmission network in open access schemes. The method starts with a candidate pool of feasible expansion plans. Consequent selection of the best candidates is carried out through a MOOP approach, of which multiple objectives are tackled simultaneously, aiming at integrating the market operation and planning as one unified process in context of deregulated system. Human knowledge has been applied in both stages to ensure the selection with practical engineering and management concerns. The expansion plan from MOOP is assessed by reliability criteria before it is finalized. The proposed method has been tested with the IEEE 14-bus system and relevant analyses and discussions have been presented.

The Learning Tourism Destination: The potential of a learning organisation approach for improving the sustainability of tourism destinations

Globalisation, increasing complexity, and the need to address triple-bottom line sustainability has seen the proliferation of Learning Organisations (LO) who, by definition, have the capacity to anticipate environmental changes and economic opportunities and adapt accordingly. Such organisations use system dynamics modelling (SDM) for both strategic planning and the promotion of organisational learning. Although SDM has been applied in the context of tourism destination management for predictive reasons, the current literature does not analyse or recognise how this could be used as a foundation for an LO. This study introduces the concept of the Learning Tourism Destinations (LTD) and discusses, on the basis of a review of 6 case studies, the potential of SDM as a tool for the implementation and enhancement of collective learning processes. The results reveal that SDM is capable of promoting communication between stakeholders and stimulating organisational learning. It is suggested that the LTD approach be further utilised and explored.

Accessibility to general practitioners in rural South Australia - A case study using geographic information system technology

Objective: To demonstrate the potential of GIS (geographic information system) technology and ARIA (Accessibility/Remoteness Index for Australia) as tools for medical workforce and health service planning in Australia. Design: ARIA is an index of remoteness derived by measuring road distance between populated localities and service centres. A continuous variable of remoteness from 0 to 12 is generated for any location in Australia. We created a GIS, with data on location of general practitioner services in non-metropolitan South Australia derived from the database of HUMPS (Rural Undergraduate Medical Placement System), and estimated, for the 1170 populated localities in South Australia, the accessibility/inaccessibility of the 109 identified GP services. Main outcome measures: Distance from populated locality to GP services. Results: Distance from populated locality to GP service ranged from 0 to 677 km (mean, 58 km). In all, 513 localities (43%) had a GP service within 20 km (for the majority this meant located within the town). However, for 173 populated localities (15%), the nearest GP service was more than 80 km away. There was a strong correlation between distance to GP service and ARIA value for each locality (0.69; P<0.05). Conclusions: GP services are relatively inaccessible to many rural South Australian communities. There is potential for GIS and for ARIA to contribute to rational medical workforce and health service planning. Adding measures of health need and more detailed data on types and extent of GP services provided will allow more sophisticated planning.

Grazers and diggers: Exploitation competition and coexistence among foragers with different feeding strategies on a single resource

A mathematical model is presented that describes a system where two consumer species compete exploitatively for a single renewable resource. The resource is distributed in a patchy but homogeneous environment; that is, all patches are intrinsically identical. The two consumer species are referred to as diggers and grazers, where diggers deplete the resource within a patch to lower densities than grazers. We show that the two distinct feeding strategies can produce a heterogeneous resource distribution that enables their coexistence. Coexistence requires that grazers must either move faster than diggers between patches or convert the resources to population growth much more efficiently than diggers. The model shows that the functional form of resource renewal within a patch is also important for coexistence. These results contrast with theory that considers exploitation competition for a single resource when the resource is assumed to be well mixed throughout the system.