An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Asymptomatic primary Epstein-Barr virus infection occurs in the absence of blood T-cell repertoire perturbations despite high levels of systemic viral load

Primary infection with the human herpesvirus, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), may result in subclinical seroconversion or may appear as infectious mononucleosis (IM), a lymphoproliferative disease of variable severity. Why primary infection manifests differently between patients is unknown, and, given the difficulties in identifying donors undergoing silent seroconversion, little information has been reported. However, a longstanding assumption has been held that IM represents an exaggerated form of the virologic and immunologic events of asymptomatic infection. T-cell receptor (TCR) repertoires of a unique cohort of subclinically infected patients undergoing silent infection were studied, and the results highlight a fundamental difference between the 2 forms of infection. In contrast to the massive T-cell expansions mobilized during the acute symptomatic phase of IM, asymptomatic donors largely maintain homeostatic T-cell control and peripheral blood repertoire diversity. This disparity cannot simply be linked to severity or spread of the infection because high levels of EBV DNA were found in the blood from both types of acute infection. The results suggest that large expansions of T cells within the blood during IM may not always be associated with the control of primary EBV infection and that they may represent an overreaction that exacerbates disease. (C) 2001 by The American Society of Hematology.

Host preference and host suitability in an egg-pupal fruit fly parasitoid, Fopius arisanus (Sonan) (Hym., Braconidae)

The relative oviposition rate of the parasitoid Fopius arisanus (Sonan) was investigated across three frugivorous tephritid species, Bactrocera tryoni Froggart, Bactrocera jarvisi (Tryon) and Bactrocera cucumis French. Choice and no-choice tests were both used. The suitability of these three species for sustaining larval development and survival to the adult stage was also assessed. Fopius arisanus parasitized all three tephritid species. regardless of the method of exposure, but showed stronger preference for B. tryoni and B. jarvisi over B. cucumis. Superparasitism was extremely rare. Successful development of F. arisanus varied across host species. Bactrocera tryoni yielded significantly more parasitoids than B. jarvisi, but no wasps emerged from B. cucumis puparia. Tests were set up in replicated trials. but results were not homogeneous across trials. We discuss the host relationships of F. arisanus with reference to this variation and in relation to host suitability for larval development.

A portable load cell for in-situ ore impact breakage testing

This paper discusses the design and characterisation of a short, and hence portable impact load cell for in-situ quantification of ore breakage properties under impact loading conditions. Much literature has been published in the past two decades about impact load cells for ore breakage testing. It has been conclusively shown that such machines yield significant quantitative energy-fragmentation information about industrial ores. However, documented load cells are all laboratory systems that are not adapted for in-situ testing due to their dimensions and operating requirements. The authors report on a new portable impact load cell designed specifically for in-situ testing. The load cell is 1.5 m in height and weighs 30 kg. Its physical and operating characteristics are detailed in the paper. This includes physical dimensions, calibration and signal deconvolution. Emphasis is placed on the deconvolution issue, which is significant for such a short load cell. Finally, it is conclusively shown that the short load cell is quantitatively as accurate as its larger laboratory analogues. (C) 2062 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of dietary level of protein, lysine and methionine and strain of bird on production and egg yolk cholesterol

The effects of dietary level of protein (151, 181 g/kg), lysine (nil, 10g L-lysine hydrochloride/kg) and methionine (nil, 5g DL-methionine/kg) on the production performance and egg yolk cholesterol of two strains of birds were studied for 12 weeks. Birds fed on the high protein diet had higher body weight gain, feed conversion ratio (FCR), rate of lay, egg weight and mass and yolk weight and mass. A high lysine diet decreased feed intake and improved FCR. High dietary level of methionine increased egg yolk cholesterol. There were differences between strains of laying bird in feed intake, rate of lay, egg and yolk weights and egg cholesterol content. It is concluded that strain of bird and dietary level of protein and lysine influenced the production performance of birds. Whilst, egg yolk cholesterol was not reduced by any of the factors studied.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Are wing size, wing shape and asymmetry related to field fitness of Trichogramma egg parasitoids?

The effects of wing shape, wing size, and fluctuating asymmetry in these measures oil the field fitness of T. nr. brassicae and T. pretiosum were investigated. Trichogramma wasps mass-reared on eggs of the factitious host Sitotroga cerealella were released in tomato paddocks and those females ovipositing on Helicoverpo spp. eggs were recaptured. Comparisons of the recaptured group with a sample from the release population were used to assess fitness. Wing data were obtained by positioning landmarks on mounted forewings. Size was then measured as the centroid size computed from landmark distances, while Procrustes analysis followed by principal component analysis was used to assess wing shape. Similar findings were obtained for both Trichogramma species: fitness of wasps was strongly related to wing size and some shape dimensions, but not to the asymmetries of these measures. Wasps which performed well in the field had larger wings and a different wing shape compared to wasps from the mass reared population. Both size and the shape dimensions were linearly associated with fitness although there was also some evidence for non-linear selection on shape. The results suggest that wing shape and wing size are reliable predictors of field fitness for these Trichogramma wasps.

Composition and energy density of eggs from two species of freshwater turtle with twofold ranges in egg size

Lipid, protein, ash, carbohydrate and water content and energy density of eggs were measured from different clutches over a range of egg size in two species of freshwater turtle. Dry egg contents consisted of protein (54-60%), lipid (25-31%) and ash (5-6%) while carbohydrate was found to be negligible (

Effect of type of grain and oil supplement on the performance, blood lipoproteins, egg cholesterol and fatty ccids of laying hens

The effects of type of grain (wheat vs. sorghum) and oil supplement/kg diet [0, 20g olive oil (OL), 20g safflower oil (SO), 10 g OL plus 10 g SO (OLSO)], over a 12-week period on the performance, plasma and lipoproteins lipids [cholesterol (C), triglycerides (TG), phospholipid (P)], and yolk C and fatty acids concentrations of laying hens were studied. Hens fed on the sorghum diet had significantly (P

A reduced load approximation accounting for link interactions in a loss network

This paper is concerned with evaluating the performance of loss networks. Accurate determination of loss network performance can assist in the design and dimen- sioning of telecommunications networks. However, exact determination can be difficult and generally cannot be done in reasonable time. For these reasons there is much interest in developing fast and accurate approximations. We develop a reduced load approximation that improves on the famous Erlang fixed point approximation (EFPA) in a variety of circumstances. We illustrate our results with reference to a range of networks for which the EFPA may be expected to perform badly.