Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Texture alignment in simple shear

We illustrate the flow behaviour of fluids with isotropic and anisotropic microstructure (internal length, layering with bending stiffness) by means of numerical simulations of silo discharge and flow alignment in simple shear. The Cosserat theory is used to provide an internal length in the constitutive model through bending stiffness to describe isotropic microstructure and this theory is coupled to a director theory to add specific orientation of grains to describe anisotropic microstructure. The numerical solution is based on an implicit form of the Material Point Method developed by Moresi et al. [1].

Targeted! Population segmentation, electronic surveillance and governing the unemployed in Australia

Targeting is increasingly used to manage people. It operates by segmenting populations and providing different levels of opportunities and services to these groups. Each group is subject to different levels of surveillance and scrutiny. This article examines the deployment of targeting in Australian social security. Three case studies of targeting are presented in Australia's management of benefit overpayment and fraud, the distribution of employment services and the application of workfare. In conceptualizing surveillance as governance, the analysis examines the rationalities, technologies and practices that make targeting thinkable, practicable and achievable. In the case studies, targeting is variously conceptualized and justified by calculative risk discourses, moral discourses of obligation and notions of welfare dependency Advanced information technologies are also seen as particularly important in giving rise to the capacity to think about and act on population segments.

Credit assignment: The memory representation of dynamic task events

The experiment examined the influence of memory for prior instances on aircraft conflict detection. Participants saw pairs of similar aircraft repeatedly conflict with each other. Performance improvements suggest that participants credited the conflict status of familiar aircraft pairs to repeated static features such as speed, and dynamic features such as aircraft relative position. Participants missed conflicts when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly passed safely. Participants either did not attend to, or interpret, the bearing of aircraft correctly as a result of false memory-based expectations. Implications for instance models and situational awareness in dynamic systems are discussed.

Dynamic strain measurement using piezoelectric polymer film

Piezoelectric polymers have been used to form the basis of dynamic strain gauges for the detection of stress waves. The linearity of response was tested using a split Hopkinson pressure bar arrangement. The results obtained illustrate the effectiveness of piezoelectric film strain gauges in the measurement of axial stress waves.

Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Analysis of dynamic models for structural insight and model reduction .2. A multi-stage compressor shutdown case-study

In this second paper, the three structural measures which have been developed are used in the modelling of a three stage centrifugal synthesis gas compressor. The goal of this case study is to determine the essential mathematical structure which must be incorporated into the compressor model to accurately model the shutdown of this system. A simple, accurate and functional model of the system is created via three structural measures. It was found that the model can be correctly reduced into its basic modes and that the order of the differential system can be reduced from 51(st) to 20(th). Of the 31 differential equational 21 reduce to algebraic relations, 8 become constants and 2 can be deleted thereby increasing the algebraic set from 70 to 91 equations. An interpretation is also obtained as to which physical phenomena are dominating the dynamics of the compressor add whether the compressor will enter surge during the shutdown. Comparisons of the reduced model performance against the full model are given, showing the accuracy and applicability of the approach. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Poverty - dynamic and sustainability perspectives: Implications for welfare and policy with reference to India

After outlining some comparative features of poverty in India, this article reviews critically recent literature on the dynamics of poverty. On economic efficiency grounds, it rejects the view that the chronically poor are more deserving than the non-chronic poor of poverty assistance. Mechanisms of households and communities for coping with poverty are discussed. The possibility is raised that where poverty has been persistent that rational methods for coping with it are likely to be well established, and less suffering may occur than for households and communities thrown temporarily into poverty. However, situations can also be envisaged where such rational behaviours deepen the poverty trap and create unfavourable externalities for poverty alleviation. Conflict can arise between programmes to alleviate poverty in poor communities and the sustainability of these communities and their local cultures. Problems posed by this are discussed. Furthermore, the impact of market extension on poor landholders is considered. In contrast to the prevailing view that increased market extension and liberalisation is favourable to poor farmers, it is argued that inescapable market transaction cost makes it difficult for the poor to survive as landholders in a fluid and changing market system. The likelihood of poor landholders joining the landless poor rises, and if they migrate from the countryside to the city they face further adjustment hurdles. Consequently, poor landholders may be poorer after the extension of the market system and only their offspring may reap benefits from market reforms.