Mapping the consequences of an unanticipated drug supply change of uncertain origins: Response to the commentaries

No Abstract

Was an increase in cocaine use among injecting drug users in New South Wales, Australia, accompanied by an increase in violent crime?

Background: A sharp reduction in heroin supply in Australia in 2001 was followed by a large but transient increase in cocaine use among injecting drug users (IDU) in Sydney. This paper assesses whether the increase in cocaine use among IDU was accompanied by increased rates of violent crime as occurred in the United States in the 1980s. Specifically, the paper aims to examine the impact of increased cocaine use among Sydney IDU upon police incidents of robbery with a weapon, assault and homicide. Methods: Data on cocaine use among IDU was obtained from the Illicit Drug Reporting System (IDRS). Monthly NSW Police incident data on arrests for cocaine possession/ use, robbery offences, homicides, and assaults, were obtained from the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. Time series analysis was conducted on the police data series where possible. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with representatives from law enforcement and health agencies about the impacts of cocaine use on crime and policing. Results: There was a significant increase in cocaine use and cocaine possession offences in the months immediately following the reduction in heroin supply. There was also a significant increase in incidents of robbery where weapons were involved. There were no increases in offences involving firearms, homicides or reported assaults. Conclusion: The increased use of cocaine among injecting drug users following the heroin shortage led to increases in violent crime. Other States and territories that also experienced a heroin shortage but did not show any increases in cocaine use did not report any increase in violent crimes. The violent crimes committed did not involve guns, most likely because of its stringent gun laws, in contrast to the experience of American cities that have experienced high rates of cocaine use and violent crime.

The effect of a reduction in heroin supply on fatal and non-fatal drug overdoses in New South Wales, Australia

Objective: To examine the impact of a sudden and dramatic decrease in heroin availability, concomitant with increases in price and decreases in purity, on fatal and non-fatal drug overdoses in New South Wales, Australia. Design and setting: Time-series analysis was conducted where possible on data on overdoses collected from NSW hospital emergency departments, the NSW Ambulance Service, and all suspected drug-related deaths referred to the NSW Coroner's court. Main outcome measures: The number of suspected drug-related deaths where heroin and other drugs were mentioned; ambulance calls to suspected opioid overdoses; and emergency department admissions for overdoses on heroin and other drugs. Results: Both fatal and non-fatal heroin overdoses decreased significantly after heroin supply reduced; the reductions were greater among younger age groups than older age groups. There were no clear increases in non-fatal overdoses with cocaine, methamphetamines or benzodiazepines recorded at hospital emergency departments after the reduction in heroin supply. Data on drug-related deaths suggested that heroin use was the predominant driver of drug-related deaths in NSW, and that when heroin supply was reduced overdose deaths were more likely to involve a wider combination of drugs. Conclusion: A reduction in heroin supply reduced heroin-related deaths, and did not result in a concomitant increase, to the same degree, in deaths relating to other drugs. Younger people were more affected by the reduction in supply.

Number and type of substances in alcohol and drug-related completed suicides in an Australian sample

Background: The association between substance use and suicide is well-established, but evidence is scant regarding the relationship between the number, type, and level of substances and other risk factors in completed suicide across the lifespan. Aims: To examine the relationship between social/demographic characteristics and the number, type, and level of drugs present in an unrestricted age sample of completed suicides in Australia. Method: An analysis was undertaken of 893 substance-related suicides using data from the Government Statistician's Office for the years 1989-1992. Results: The number and type of substances present in suicide victims was related to the individual's gender, age, marital status, employment status, and method of suicide. Blood alcohol level was significantly different between the methods of suicide, but was unrelated to demographic characteristics of the individual. The level of antidepressants and minor tranquilizers in the individuals was also unrelated to demographic characteristics. Conclusion: Examination of the type and number of substances present in completed suicides is an important component in creating profiles of potential suicide victims.

Prevalence of injecting drug use and associated risk behavior among regular ecstasy users in Australia

Background: The aim of the study was to investigate the prevalence of injecting drug use and associated risk behaviour among a sentinel sample of ecstasy users. Methods: Cross-sectional surveys were conducted with regular ecstasy users as part of an annual monitoring study of ecstasy and related drug markets in all Australian capital cities. Results: Twenty-three percent of the sample reported having ever injected a drug and 15% reported injecting in the 6 months preceding interview. Independent predictors of lifetime injection were older age, unemployment and having ever been in prison. Completion of secondary school and identifying as heterosexual was associated with a lower likelihood of having ever injected. Participants who had recently injected typically did so infrequently; only 9% reported daily injecting. Methamphetamine was the most commonly injected drug. Prevalence of needle sharing was low (6%), although half (47%) reported sharing other injecting equipment in the preceding 6 months. Conclusions: Ecstasy users who report having injected a drug at some time appear to be demographically different to ecstasy users who have not injected although neither are they typical of other drug injectors. The current investigation suggests that ongoing monitoring of injecting among regular ecstasy users is warranted. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in morphine prescriptions, illicit morphine use and associated harms among regular injecting drug users in Australia

This paper examines population trends in morphine prescriptions in Australia, and contrasts them with findings from annual surveys with regular injecting drug users (IDU). Data on morphine prescriptions from 1995 to 2003 were obtained from the Drug Monitoring System (DRUMS) run by the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing. Data collected from regular IDU as part of the Australian Illicit Drug Reporting System (IDRS) were analysed (2001-2004). The rate of morphine prescription per person aged 15-54 years increased by 89% across Australia between 1995 and 2003 (from 46.3 to 85.9 mg per person). Almost half (46%) of IDU surveyed in 2004 reported illicit morphine use, with the highest rates in jurisdictions where heroin was less available. Recent morphine injectors were significantly more likely to be male, unemployed, out of treatment and homeless in comparison to IDU who had not injected morphine. They were also more likely to have injected other pharmaceutical drugs and to report injection related problems. Among those who had injected morphine recently, the most commonly reported injecting harms were morphine dependence (38%), difficulty finding veins into which to inject (36%) and scarring or bruising (27%). Morphine use and injection is a common practice among regular IDU in Australia. In some cases, morphine may be a substitute for illicit heroin; in others, it may be being used to treat heroin dependence where other pharmacotherapies, such as methadone and buprenorphine, are perceived as being unavailable or undesirable by IDU. Morphine injection appears to be associated with polydrug use, and with it, a range of problems related to drug injection. Further research is required to monitor and reduce morphine diversion and related harms by such polydrug injectors.

Using cohort studies to estimate mortality among injecting drug users that is not attributable to AIDS

Background: Injecting drug use (IDU) and associated mortality appear to be increasing in many parts of the world. IDU is an important factor in HIV transmission. In estimating AIDS mortality attributable to IDU, it is important to take account of premature mortality rates from other causes to ensure that AIDS related mortality among injecting drug users (IDUs) is not overestimated. The current review provides estimates of the excess non-AIDS mortality among IDUs. Method: Searches were conducted with Medline, PsycINFO, and the Web of Science. The authors also searched reference lists of identified papers and an earlier literature review by English et al (1995). Crude. mortality rates (CMRs) were derived from data on the number of deaths, period of follow UP, and number of participants. In estimating the all-cause mortality, two rates were calculated: one that included all cohort studies identified in the search, and one that only included studies that reported on AIDS deaths in their cohort. This provided lower and upper mortality rates, respectively. Results: The current paper derived weighted mortality rates based upon cohort studies that included 179 885 participants, 1 219 422 person-years of observation, and 16 593 deaths. The weighted crude AIDS mortality rate from studies that reported AIDS deaths was approximately 0.78% per annum. The median estimated non-AIDS mortality rate was 1.08% per annum. Conclusions: Illicit drug users have a greatly increased risk of premature death and mortality due to AIDS forms a significant part of that increased risk; it is, however, only part of that risk. Future work needs to examine mortality rates among IDUs in developing countries, and collect data on the relation between HIV and increased mortality due to all causes among this group.

Reflections on the development and implementation of an early warning system for ecstasy and related drug markets in Australia

Regular and systematic monitoring of drug markets provides the basis for evidence-based policy. In Australia, trends in ecstasy and related drug (ERD) markets have been monitored in selected jurisdictions since 2000 and nationally since 2003, by the Party Drugs Initiative (PDI). The PDI maximises the validity of conclusions by triangulating information from (a) interviews with regular ecstasy users (REU), (b) interviews with key experts and (c) indicator data. There is currently no other system in Australia for monitoring these markets systematically; however, the value of the PDI has been constrained by the quality of available data. Difficulties in recruiting and interviewing appropriate consumers (REU) and key experts have been experienced, but largely overcome. Limitations of available indicator data from both health and law enforcement continue to present challenges and there remains considerable scope for enhancing existing routine data collection systems, to facilitate monitoring of ERD markets. With an expanding market for ecstasy and related drugs in Australia, and in the context of indicator data that continue to be limited in scope and detail, there is a strong argument for the continued collection of annual, comparable data from a sentinel group of REU, such as those recruited for the PDI.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of policy instruments for reducing the global burden of alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use

Alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use together pose a formidable challenge to international public health. Building on earlier estimates of the demonstrated burden of alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use at the global level, this review aims to consider the comparative cost-effectiveness of evidence-based interventions for reducing the global burden of disease from these three risk factors. Although the number of published cost-effectiveness studies in the addictions field is now extensive ( reviewed briefly here) there are a series of practical problems in using them for sector-wide decision making, including methodological heterogeneity, differences in analytical reference point and the specificity of findings to a particular context. In response to these limitations, a more generalised form of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is proposed, which enables like-with-like comparisons of the relative efficiency of preventive or individual-based strategies to be made, not only within but also across diseases or their risk factors. The application of generalised CEA to a range of personal and non-personal interventions for reducing the burden of addictive substances is described. While such a development avoids many of the obstacles that have plagued earlier attempts and in so doing opens up new opportunities to address important policy questions, there remain a number of caveats to population-level analysis of this kind, particularly when conducted at the global level. These issues are the subject of the final section of this review.