Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Demographic effects on the use of vertical sources of guidance by managers in widely differing cultural contexts

Data provided by 7380 middle managers from 60 nations are used to determine whether demographic variables are correlated with managers’ reliance on vertical sources of guidance in different nations and whether these correlations differ depending on national culture characteristics. Significant effects of Hofstede’s national culture scores, age, gender, organization ownership and department function are found. After these main effects have been discounted, significant although weak interactions are found, indicating that demographic effects are stronger in individualist, low power distance nations than elsewhere. Significant non-predicted interaction effects of uncertainty avoidance and masculinity-femininity are also obtained. The implications for theory and practice of the use of demographic attributes in understanding effective management procedures in various parts of the world are discussed.

Is mortality from heart failure increasing in Australia? An analysis of official data on mortality for 1997-2003

Objective To assess whether trends in mortality from heart failure(HF) in Australia are due to a change in awareness of the condition or real changes in its epidemiology. Methods We carried out a retrospective analysis of official data on national mortality data between 1997 and 2003. A death was attributed to HF if the death certificate mentioned HF as either the underlying cause of death (UCD) or among the contributory factors. Findings From a total of 907 242 deaths, heart failure was coded as the UCD for 29 341 (3.2%) and was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate in 135 268 (14.9%). Between 1997 and 2003, there were decreases in the absolute numbers of deaths and in the age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for HF either as UCD or mentioned anywhere for both sexes. HF was mentioned for 24.6% and 17.8% of deaths attributed to ischaemic heart disease and circulatory disease, respectively, and these proportions remained unchanged over the period of study. In addition, HF as UCD accounted for 8.3% of deaths attributed to circulatory disease and this did not change materially from 1997 to 2003. Conclusion The decline in mortality from HF measured as either number of deaths or rate probably reflects a real change in the epidemiology of HF. Population-based studies are required to determine accurately the contributions of changes in incidence, survival and demographic factors to the evolving epidemiology of HF.

Reference values for whole body and cerebral multi-frequency bio-impedance data in neonates less than 12 h postpartum

Multiple frequency bio-electrical impedance analysis (MFBIA) may be useful for monitoring fluid balance in newborn infants or to provide early prediction of the outcome following perinatal asphyxia. A reference range of data is needed for identification of babies with abnormal impedance values. This was a cross-sectional observational study in 84 term and near-term healthy neonates less than 12 h postpartum. Whole body and cerebral MFBIA measurements were performed at the bedside in the post-natal ward. Gestational age, post-natal age, gender, birthweight, head circumference and foot length measures were recorded. Reference values for impedance at the characteristic frequency (Z(C)) and resistance at zero frequency (R-0) are reported for whole body and cerebral impedance. Significant correlations (p < 0.05) were observed between whole body impedance and birthweight, footlength and head circumference. Females had a significantly higher whole body R0 than males. Cerebral impedance did not correlate significantly with any of the demographic measures and therewere no gender differences observed for cerebral impedance. The reference range for whole body multi-frequency bio-impedance values in term and near-term infants within the first 12 h postpartum can be calculated from the footlength (FL) using the following equations: Z(C) = (942.9 - 4.818* FL) +/- 124.6 Omega; R-0 = (1042 - 4.520(*)FL) +/- 135.5 Omega. For cerebral impedance the reference range is 29.5-48.7 Omega for Z(C) and 33.7-58.0 Omega for R-0.

Socio-demographic variations in walking for transport and for recreation or exercise among adult Australians

Background: Walking is integral to strategies to promote physical activity. We identified socio-demographic variations in walking for transport, and for recreation or exercise. Methods: Representative population data (n = 3392) from Australia were collected using computer assisted telephone interviewing, to examine adults’ participation in moderate- or brisk-paced walking for transport and walking for recreation or exercise; walking “sufficient” to meet the current public health guideline (> 150 min/wk); and, the contributions of total walking to meeting the guideline for total physical activity. Results: Rates of sufficient walking for transport (10% for men, 9% for women) were lower than those for walking for recreation or exercise (14% for both genders). Few socio-demographic differences emerged. Men over age 60 y were significantly less likely (OR = 0.40) to walk for transport; men age 45 to 59 y were more likely (OR = 1.56) to walk for recreation or exercise. Walking contributed more toward meeting the current public health guideline among women (15% to 21%) than among men (6% to 8%). Conclusions: There is potential for socially equitable increases in participation, through a focus on both walking for transport and on walking for recreation or exercise; attention to gender differences would be helpful.

The use of complementary and alternative therapies by patients with cancer

The aim of this research was to assess the prevalence and predictors of complementary and alternative therapy (CAT) use among cancer patients in Australia. A total of 1492 cancer patients attending nine major public cancer treatment centers in New South Wales, Australia, were asked to complete the Supportive Care Needs Survey. Of the 1354 consenting patients, 888 (65%) returned a completed survey. This article reports the secondary analyses of the survey data, specifically focusing on CAT use. For all cancers, 17.1% of patients were using at least one CAT. The two main demographic characteristics of CAT users were gender and age, where females were more likely to use CAT than males and that CAT use declined as age increased. Time since diagnosis was identified as the only significant clinical predictor of CAT use, where CAT use increased with time until 5 years since diagnosis. Our research shows that herbal treatments and naturopathy are the most popular CAT used by cancer patients (constituting over 30% of all CAT use recorded). The use of CAT among cancer patients is a significant issue in cancer care, especially considering the potential interactions between CAT and conventional medicines. Given that many cancer patients may not be aware of potential risks associated with these interactions it is important that oncologists and others involved in cancer patient care are informed about CAT and its use amongst their patients.

A randomised control trial of exercise and manipulative therapy for cervicogenic headache

Study Design. A multicenter, randomized controlled trial with unblinded treatment and blinded outcome assessment was conducted. The treatment period was 6 weeks with follow-up assessment after treatment, then at 3, 6, and 12 months. Objectives. To determine the effectiveness of manipulative therapy and a low-load exercise program for cervicogenic headache when used alone and in combination, as compared with a control group. Summary of Background Data. Headaches arising from cervical musculoskeletal disorders are common. Conservative therapies are recommended as the first treatment of choice. Evidence for the effectiveness of manipulative therapy is inconclusive and available only for the short term. There is no evidence for exercise, and no study has investigated the effect of combined therapies for cervicogenic headache. Methods. In this study, 200 participants who met the diagnostic criteria for cervicogenic headache were randomized into four groups: manipulative therapy group, exercise therapy group, combined therapy group, and a control group. The primary outcome was a change in headache frequency. Other outcomes included changes in headache intensity and duration, the Northwick Park Neck Pain Index, medication intake, and patient satisfaction. Physical outcomes included pain on neck movement, upper cervical joint tenderness, a craniocervical flexion muscle test, and a photographic measure of posture. Results. There were no differences in headache-related and demographic characteristics between the groups at baseline. The loss to follow-up evaluation was 3.5%. At the 12-month follow-up assessment, both manipulative therapy and specific exercise had significantly reduced headache frequency and intensity, and the neck pain and effects were maintained (P < 0.05 for all). The combined therapies was not significantly superior to either therapy alone, but 10% more patients gained relief with the combination. Effect sizes were at least moderate and clinically relevant. Conclusion. Manipulative therapy and exercise can reduce the symptoms of cervicogenic headache, and the effects are maintained.

Migrating eprints.org data to a Fez repository

This document records the process of migrating eprints.org data to a Fez repository. Fez is a Web-based digital repository and workflow management system based on Fedora (http://www.fedora.info/). At the time of migration, the University of Queensland Library was using EPrints 2.2.1 [pepper] for its ePrintsUQ repository. Once we began to develop Fez, we did not upgrade to later versions of eprints.org software since we knew we would be migrating data from ePrintsUQ to the Fez-based UQ eSpace. Since this document records our experiences of migration from an earlier version of eprints.org, anyone seeking to migrate eprints.org data into a Fez repository might encounter some small differences. Moving UQ publication data from an eprints.org repository into a Fez repository (hereafter called UQ eSpace (http://espace.uq.edu.au/) was part of a plan to integrate metadata (and, in some cases, full texts) about all UQ research outputs, including theses, images, multimedia and datasets, in a single repository. This tied in with the plan to identify and capture the research output of a single institution, the main task of the eScholarshipUQ testbed for the Australian Partnership for Sustainable Repositories project (http://www.apsr.edu.au/). The migration could not occur at UQ until the functionality in Fez was at least equal to that of the existing ePrintsUQ repository. Accordingly, as Fez development occurred throughout 2006, a list of eprints.org functionality not currently supported in Fez was created so that programming of such development could be planned for and implemented.

Environmental Risk Factors for Parkinson's Disease

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive, degenerative, neurological disease. The progressive disability associated with PD results in substantial burdens for those with the condition, their families and society in terms of increased health resource use, earnings loss of affected individuals and family caregivers, poorer quality of life, caregiver burden, disrupted family relationships, decreased social and leisure activities, and deteriorating emotional well-being. Currently, no cure is available and the efficacy of available treatments, such as medication and surgical interventions, decreases with longer duration of the disease. Whilst the cause of PD is unknown, genetic and environmental factors are believed to contribute to its aetiology. Descriptive and analytical epidemiological studies have been conducted in a number of countries in an effort to elucidate the cause, or causes, of PD. Rural residency, farming, well water consumption, pesticide exposure, metals and solvents have been implicated as potential risk factors for PD in some previous epidemiological studies. However, there is substantial disagreement between the results of existing studies. Therefore, the role of environmental exposures in the aetiology of PD remains unclear. The main component of this thesis consists of a case-control study that assessed the contribution of environmental exposures to the risk of developing PD. An existing, previously unanalysed, dataset from a local case-control study was analysed to inform the design of the new case-control study. The analysis results suggested that regular exposure to pesticides and head injury were important risk factors for PD. However, due to the substantial limitations of this existing study, further confirmation of these results was desirable with a more robustly designed epidemiological study. A new exposure measurement instrument (a structured interviewer-delivered questionnaire) was developed for the new case-control study to obtain data on demographic, lifestyle, environmental and medical factors. Prior to its use in the case-control study, the questionnaire was assessed for test-retest repeatability in a series of 32 PD cases and 29 healthy sex-, age- and residential suburb-matched electoral roll controls. High repeatability was demonstrated for lifestyle exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70-1.00). The majority of environmental exposures, including use of pesticides, solvents and exposure to metal dusts and fumes, also showed high repeatability (kappas >0.78). A consecutive series of 163 PD case participants was recruited from a neurology clinic in Brisbane. One hundred and fifty-one (151) control participants were randomly selected from the Australian Commonwealth Electoral Roll and individually matched to the PD cases on age (± 2 years), sex and current residential suburb. Participants ranged in age from 40-89 years (mean age 67 years). Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using conditional logistic regression for matched sets in SAS version 9.1. Consistent with previous studies, ever having been a regular smoker or coffee drinker was inversely associated with PD with dose-response relationships evident for packyears smoked and number of cups of coffee drunk per day. Passive smoking from ever having lived with a smoker or worked in a smoky workplace was also inversely related to PD. Ever having been a regular tea drinker was associated with decreased odds of PD. Hobby gardening was inversely associated with PD. However, use of fungicides in the home garden or occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Exposure to welding fumes, cleaning solvents, or thinners occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Ever having resided in a rural or remote area was inversely associated with PD. Ever having resided on a farm was only associated with moderately increased odds of PD. Whilst the current study’s results suggest that environmental exposures on their own are only modest contributors to overall PD risk, the possibility that interaction with genetic factors may additively or synergistically increase risk should be considered. The results of this research support the theory that PD has a multifactorial aetiology and that environmental exposures are some of a number of factors to contribute to PD risk. There was also evidence of interaction between some factors (eg smoking and welding) to moderate PD risk.

A simple data logger for student-designed rocket experiments.

The final-year project for Mechanical & Space Engineering students at UQ often involves the design and flight testing of an experiment. This report describes the design and use of a simple data logger that should be suitable for collecting data from the students' flight experiments. The exercise here was taken as far as the construction of a prototype device that is suitable for ground-based testing, say, the static firing of a hybrid rocket motor.

Equational Reasoning as a Tool for Data Analysis

A combination of deductive reasoning, clustering, and inductive learning is given as an example of a hybrid system for exploratory data analysis. Visualization is replaced by a dialogue with the data.

Leadership Attributes and Cultural Values in Australia and New Zealand Compared: An Initial Report Based on GLOBE Data.

This paper reports a comparative study of Australian and New Zealand leadership attributes, based on the GLOBE (Global Leadership and Organizational Behavior Effectiveness) program. Responses from 344 Australian managers and 184 New Zealand managers in three industries were analyzed using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. Results supported some of the etic leadership dimensions identified in the GLOBE study, but also found some emic dimensions of leadership for each country. An interesting finding of the study was that the New Zealand data fitted the Australian model, but not vice versa, suggesting asymmetric perceptions of leadership in the two countries.

Selection bias in gene extraction on the basis of microarray gene-expression data

In the context of cancer diagnosis and treatment, we consider the problem of constructing an accurate prediction rule on the basis of a relatively small number of tumor tissue samples of known type containing the expression data on very many (possibly thousands) genes. Recently, results have been presented in the literature suggesting that it is possible to construct a prediction rule from only a few genes such that it has a negligible prediction error rate. However, in these results the test error or the leave-one-out cross-validated error is calculated without allowance for the selection bias. There is no allowance because the rule is either tested on tissue samples that were used in the first instance to select the genes being used in the rule or because the cross-validation of the rule is not external to the selection process; that is, gene selection is not performed in training the rule at each stage of the cross-validation process. We describe how in practice the selection bias can be assessed and corrected for by either performing a cross-validation or applying the bootstrap external to the selection process. We recommend using 10-fold rather than leave-one-out cross-validation, and concerning the bootstrap, we suggest using the so-called. 632+ bootstrap error estimate designed to handle overfitted prediction rules. Using two published data sets, we demonstrate that when correction is made for the selection bias, the cross-validated error is no longer zero for a subset of only a few genes.

Special issue on advances in data mining and its applications

Data mining is the process to identify valid, implicit, previously unknown, potentially useful and understandable information from large databases. It is an important step in the process of knowledge discovery in databases, (Olaru & Wehenkel, 1999). In a data mining process, input data can be structured, seme-structured, or unstructured. Data can be in text, categorical or numerical values. One of the important characteristics of data mining is its ability to deal data with large volume, distributed, time variant, noisy, and high dimensionality. A large number of data mining algorithms have been developed for different applications. For example, association rules mining can be useful for market basket problems, clustering algorithms can be used to discover trends in unsupervised learning problems, classification algorithms can be applied in decision-making problems, and sequential and time series mining algorithms can be used in predicting events, fault detection, and other supervised learning problems (Vapnik, 1999). Classification is among the most important tasks in the data mining, particularly for data mining applications into engineering fields. Together with regression, classification is mainly for predictive modelling. So far, there have been a number of classification algorithms in practice. According to (Sebastiani, 2002), the main classification algorithms can be categorized as: decision tree and rule based approach such as C4.5 (Quinlan, 1996); probability methods such as Bayesian classifier (Lewis, 1998); on-line methods such as Winnow (Littlestone, 1988) and CVFDT (Hulten 2001), neural networks methods (Rumelhart, Hinton & Wiliams, 1986); example-based methods such as k-nearest neighbors (Duda & Hart, 1973), and SVM (Cortes & Vapnik, 1995). Other important techniques for classification tasks include Associative Classification (Liu et al, 1998) and Ensemble Classification (Tumer, 1996).

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.