92 resultados para Crop yield forecasting


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A simple framework was used to analyse the determinants of potential yield of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) in a subtropical environment. The aim was to investigate the stability of the determinants crop duration, canopy light interception, radiation use efficiency (RUE), and harvest index (HI) at 2 sowing times and with 3 genotypes differing in crop maturity and stature. Crop growth, phenology, light interception, yield, prevailing temperature, and radiation were recorded and measured throughout the crop cycle. Significant differences in grain yield were found between the 2 sowings, but not among genotypes within each sowing. Mean yields (0% moisture) were 6 . 02 and 2 . 17 t/ha for the first sowing, on 13 September (S1), and the second sowing, on 5 March (S2), respectively. Exceptionally high yields in S1 were due to high biomass assimilation associated with the high radiation environment, high light interception owing to a greater leaf area index, and high RUE (1 . 47-1 . 62 g/MJ) across genotypes. It is proposed that the high RUE was caused by high levels of available nitrogen maintained during crop growth by frequent applications of fertiliser and sewage effluent as irrigation. In addition to differences in the radiation environment, the assimilate partitioned to grain was reduced in S2 associated with a reduction in the duration of grain-filling. Harvest index was 0 . 40 in S1 and 0 . 25 in S2. It is hypothesised that low minimum temperatures experienced in S2 reduced assimilate production and partitioning, causing premature maturation.

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Factors influencing the relationship between whiteheads caused by the white stem borer Scirpophaga innotata (Walker) and grain yield were investigated. We determined the effect of different numbers of whiteheads on grain yield using different cultivars, nitrogen application, and at different field locations in Cilamaya, West Java. At the same number of panicles and whiteheads per plant, yield reduction is greater in cisadane than in IR64. With increasing nitrogen application, the range in panicle height increased. Except for Ketan, more whiteheads were recorded in shorter panicles. Two locations planted to the same cultivar showed different relationships between whiteheads and grain yield. The relationship between whiteheads and grain yield depends on the distribution of whiteheads in the field. Unless these factors have been taken into consideration, it may be difficult to make a damage prediction of white stem borer in the field. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

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We tested the hypothesis that early-planted seedbeds of rioe are mere heavily infested with brown planthopper (BPH) than later seedbeds, and that transplanted plants with lBPH are a source of subsequent population increase and possible outbreaks. The experiments were conducted at CARDI and Takeo province in wet season 2000 and early wet 2 season 200 I. BPH at O. 25. 50, 100, 200 1m were infested onto plants with low and high fertilizer treatments. Rice seeds of varieties moderately and highly susceptible to BPH were sown 3 weeks early, 2 weeks early, at the normal time, and later than normal (5 weeks) and treated with low and high fertilizer rates. At Takeo, the 3< weeks early seedbeds were infested by BPH migration, and both varieties with high fertilizer caught more immigrant insects and subsequently had damaging outbreaks of BPH in the third generation. At CARDl, no seedbeds were infested with immigrant BPH. Seedbeds in areas with continuous cropping of rice have a high risk of BPH attack, Seedlings infested with 200, 100, and 50 BPI[/m2 resulted in death of the plant. Plants with 100 and 200 BPH/m'! were kj[Jed sooner. With 25 BPIVm2 plants were not kllled, but subsequent population increase caused yi eld reduction. Yield loss was high ill higlh fertilizer treated plants. Key words , ,

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The Tully Sugar Mill has collected information about sugarcane supplied for crushing from every block in the mill district from 1970 to 1999. Data from 1988 to 1999 were analysed to understand the extent of the variation in cane yield per hectare and commercial cane sugar in the Tully mill area. The key factors influencing the variation in cane yield and commercial cane sugar in this commercial environment were identified and the variance components computed using a restricted maximum likelihood methodology. Cane yield was predominantly influenced by the year in which it was harvested, the month when the crop was ratooned (month of harvest in the previous year) and the farm of origin. These variables were relatively more important than variety, age of crop or crop class (plant crop, first ratoon through to fourth or older ratoons) and fallowing practice (fallow or ploughout-replant). The month-of-ratooning effect was relatively stable from year-to-year. Commercial cane sugar was influenced by the year of harvest, the month of harvest and their interaction, in that the influence of the month of harvest varied from year to year. Variety and farm differences were also significant but accounted for a much lower portion of the variation in commercial cane sugar. An empirical model was constructed from the key factors that influenced commercial cane sugar and cane yield to quantify their combined influence on sugar yield (t/ha). This may be used to assist mill personnel to predict their activities more accurately, for example to calculate the impact of a late finish to the current harvest season on the following year's crop.

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Multi-environment trials (METs) used to evaluate breeding lines vary in the number of years that they sample. We used a cropping systems model to simulate the target population of environments (TPE) for 6 locations over 108 years for 54 'near-isolines' of sorghum in north-eastern Australia. For a single reference genotype, each of 547 trials was clustered into 1 of 3 'drought environment types' (DETs) based on a seasonal water stress index. Within sequential METs of 2 years duration, the frequencies of these drought patterns often differed substantially from those derived for the entire TPE. This was reflected in variation in the mean yield of the reference genotype. For the TPE and for 2-year METs, restricted maximum likelihood methods were used to estimate components of genotypic and genotype by environment variance. These also varied substantially, although not in direct correlation with frequency of occurrence of different DETs over a 2-year period. Combined analysis over different numbers of seasons demonstrated the expected improvement in the correlation between MET estimates of genotype performance and the overall genotype averages as the number of seasons in the MET was increased.

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Functional knowledge of the physiological basis of crop adaptation to stress is a prerequisite for exploiting specific adaptation to stress environments in breeding programs. This paper presents an analysis of yield components for pearl millet, to explain the specific adaptation of local landraces to stress environments in Rajasthan, India. Six genotypes, ranging from high-tillering traditional landraces to low-tillering open-pollinated modern cultivars, were grown in 20 experiments, covering a range of nonstress and drought stress patterns. In each experiment, yield components (particle number, grain number, 100 grain mass) were measured separately for main shoots, basal tillers, and nodal tillers. Under optimum conditions, landraces had a significantly lower grain yield than the cultivars, but no significant differences were observed at yield levels around 1 ton ha(-1). This genotype x environment interaction for grain yield was due to a difference in yield strategy, where landraces aimed at minimising the risk of a crop failure under stress conditions, and modem cultivars aimed at maximising yield potential under optimum conditions. A key aspect of the adaptation of landraces was the small size of the main shoot panicle, as it minimised (1) the loss of productive tillers during stem elongation; (2) the delay in anthesis if mid-season drought occurs; and (3) the reduction in panicle productivity of the basal tillers under stress. In addition, a low investment in structural panicle weight, relative to vegetative crop growth rate, promoted the production of nodal tillers, providing a mechanism to compensate for reduced basal tiller productivity if stress occurred around anthesis. A low maximum 100 grain mass also ensured individual grain mass was little affected by environmental conditions. The strategy of the high-tillering landraces carries a yield penalty under optimum conditions, but is expected to minimise the risk of a crop failure, particularly if mid-season drought stress occurs. The yield architecture of low-tillering varieties, by contrast, will be suited to end-of-season drought stress, provided anthesis is early. Application of the above adaptation mechanisms into a breeding program could enable the identification of plant types that match the prevalent stress patterns in the target environments. (C) 2003 E.J. van Oosterom. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Screening for drought resistance of rainfed lowland rice using drought score (leaf death) as a selection index has a long history of use in breeding programs. Genotypic variation for drought score during the vegetative stage in two dry season screens was examined among 128 recombinant inbred lines from four biparental crosses. The genotypic variation detected for drought score in the dry season was used to examine the reliability of the dry season screening method to estimate relative grain yield of genotypes under different types of drought stress in the wet season. Large genotypic variation for drought score existed in two experiments (A and B). However, there was no relationship between the drought scores of genotypes determined in these two experiments. Different patterns of development and severity of drought stress in these two experiments, i.e. slow development and mild plant water deficit in experiment A and fast development and severe plant water deficit in experiment B, were identified as the major factors contributing to the genotypes responding differently. Larger drought score in the dry season experiments was associated with lower grain yield under specific drought stress conditions in the wet season, but the association was weak to moderate and significant only in particular drought conditions. In most cases, a significant phenotypic and moderate genetic correlation between drought score in the dry season and grain yield in the wet season existed only when both drought score and grain yield of genotypes were affected by similar patterns and severity of drought stress in their respective experimental environments. The dry season environments used to measure genotypic variation for drought score should be managed to correspond to relevant types of drought environment that are frequent in the wet season. The efficiency of using the drought score as an indirect selection criterion for improving grain yield for drought conditions was lower than the direct selection for grain yield, and hence wet season screening with grain yield as a selection criterion would be more efficient. However, using drought score as a selection index, a larger number of genotypes can be evaluated than for wet season grain yield. Therefore, it is possible to apply higher selection intensities using the drought score system, and the selected lines can be further tested for grain yield in the wet season. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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In broader catchment scale investigations, there is a need to understand and ultimately exploit the spatial variation of agricultural crops for an improved economic return. In many instances, this spatial variation is temporally unstable and may be different for various crop attributes and crop species. In the Australian sugar industry, the opportunity arose to evaluate the performance of 231 farms in the Tully Mill area in far north Queensland using production information on cane yield (t/ha) and CCS ( a fresh weight measure of sucrose content in the cane) accumulated over a 12-year period. Such an arrangement of data can be expressed as a 3-way array where a farm x attribute x year matrix can be evaluated and interactions considered. Two multivariate techniques, the 3-way mixture method of clustering and the 3-mode principal component analysis, were employed to identify meaningful relationships between farms that performed similarly for both cane yield and CCS. In this context, farm has a spatial component and the aim of this analysis was to determine if systematic patterns in farm performance expressed by cane yield and CCS persisted over time. There was no spatial relationship between cane yield and CCS. However, the analysis revealed that the relationship between farms was remarkably stable from one year to the next for both attributes and there was some spatial aggregation of farm performance in parts of the mill area. This finding is important, since temporally consistent spatial variation may be exploited to improve regional production. Alternatively, the putative causes of the spatial variation may be explored to enhance the understanding of sugarcane production in the wet tropics of Australia.

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New tools derived from advances in molecular biology have not been widely adopted in plant breeding for complex traits because of the inability to connect information at gene level to the phenotype in a manner that is useful for selection. In this study, we explored whether physiological dissection and integrative modelling of complex traits could link phenotype complexity to underlying genetic systems in a way that enhanced the power of molecular breeding strategies. A crop and breeding system simulation study on sorghum, which involved variation in 4 key adaptive traits-phenology, osmotic adjustment, transpiration efficiency, stay-green-and a broad range of production environments in north-eastern Australia, was used. The full matrix of simulated phenotypes, which consisted of 547 location-season combinations and 4235 genotypic expression states, was analysed for genetic and environmental effects. The analysis was conducted in stages assuming gradually increased understanding of gene-to-phenotype relationships, which would arise from physiological dissection and modelling. It was found that environmental characterisation and physiological knowledge helped to explain and unravel gene and environment context dependencies in the data. Based on the analyses of gene effects, a range of marker-assisted selection breeding strategies was simulated. It was shown that the inclusion of knowledge resulting from trait physiology and modelling generated an enhanced rate of yield advance over cycles of selection. This occurred because the knowledge associated with component trait physiology and extrapolation to the target population of environments by modelling removed confounding effects associated with environment and gene context dependencies for the markers used. Developing and implementing this gene-to-phenotype capability in crop improvement requires enhanced attention to phenotyping, ecophysiological modelling, and validation studies to test the stability of candidate genetic regions.

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The potassium (K) nutrition and high K requirement of tropical root crops may be affected by their sodium (Na) status, as has been observed in a number of plant species. Solution culture was used to study the effects of K and Na supplies in tannia [Xanthosoma sagittifolium (L.) Schott.], sweetpotato [Ipomoea batatas (L.) Lam.] and taro [Colocasia esculenta (L.) Schott]. At low K supply, Na ameliorated symptoms of K deficiency and increased growth in tannia, and to a lesser extent in sweetpotato, but not in taro. None of the species responded to Na at adequate K supply. Differences in response to Na were attributed to differences in Na translocation to plant tops. At maximum Na supply, the Na concentration in index leaves averaged 1.82% in tannia, 0.205% in sweetpotato, and 0.0067% in taro. An increase in the supply of Na resulted in a shift in the critical K concentration for deficiency (i.e., 90% of maximum yield) in index leaves from 2.9% to 1.2% in tannia, and from 4.8% to 2.5% in sweetpotato. The critical K concentration in taro was 3.3%, irrespective of Na supply. To overcome the problem in tannia and sweetpotato of determining the critical concentration relevant to a leaf sample of unknown K status, a relationship was established for each species relating the critical K concentration to the concentration of Na in the index leaves.

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There is evidence that high-tillering, small-panicled pearl millet landraces are better adapted to the severe, unpredictable drought stress of the and zones of NW India than are low-tillering, large-panicled modern varieties, which significantly outyield the landraces under favourable conditions. In this paper, we analyse the relationship of and zone adaptation with the expression, under optimum conditions, of yield components that determine either the potential sink size or the ability to realise this potential. The objective is to test whether selection under optimal conditions for yield components can identify germplasm with adaptation to and zones in NW India, as this could potentially improve the efficiency of pearl millet improvement programs targeting and zones. We use data from an evaluation of over 100 landraces from NW India, conducted for two seasons under both severely drought-stressed and favourable conditions in northwest and south India. Trial average grain yields ranged from 14 g m(-2) to 182 g m(-2). The landraces were grouped into clusters, based on their phenology and yield components as measured under well-watered conditions in south India. In environments without pre-flowering drought stress, tillering type had no effect on potential sink size, but low-tillering, large-panicled landraces yielded significantly more grain, as they were better able to realise their potential sink size. By contrast, in two low-yielding and zone environments which experienced pre-anthesis drought stress, low-fillering, large-panicled landraces yielded significantly less grain than high-tillering ones with comparable phenology, because of both a reduced potential sink size and a reduced ability to realise this potential. The results indicate that the high grain yield of low-tillering, large-panicled landraces under favourable conditions is due to improved partitioning, rather than resource capture. However, under severe stress with restricted assimilate supply, high-tillering, small-panicled landraces are better able to produce a reproductive sink than are large-panicled ones. Selection under optimum conditions for yield components representing a resource allocation pattern favouring high yield under severe drought stress, combined with a capability to increase grain yield if assimilates are available, was more effective than direct selection for grain yield in identifying germplasm adapted to and zones. Incorporating such selection in early generations of variety testing could reduce the reliance on random stress environments. This should improve the efficiency of millet breeding programs targeting and zones. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Broccoli is a vegetable crop of increasing importance in Australia, particularly in south-east Queensland and farmers need to maintain a regular supply of good quality broccoli to meet the expanding market. A predictive model of ontogeny, incorporating climatic data including frost risk, would enable farmers to predict harvest maturity date and select appropriate cultivar – sowing date combinations. To develop procedures for predicting ontogeny, yield and quality, field studies using three cultivars, ‘Fiesta’, ‘Greenbelt’ and ‘Marathon’, were sown on eight dates from 11 March to 22 May 1997, and grown under natural and extended (16 h) photoperiods at the University of Queensland, Gatton Campus. Cultivar, rather than the environment, mainly determined head quality attributes of head shape and branching angle. Yield and quality were not influenced by photoperiod. A better understanding of genotype and environmental interactions will help farmers optimise yield and quality, by matching cultivars with time of sowing. The estimated base and optimum temperature for broccoli development were 0°C and 20 °C, respectively, and were consistent across cultivars, but thermal time requirements for phenological intervals were cultivar specific. Differences in thermal time requirement from floral initiation to harvest maturity between cultivars were small and of little importance, but differences in thermal time requirement from emergence to floral initiation were large. Sensitivity to photoperiod and solar radiation was low in the three cultivars used. This research has produced models to assist broccoli farmers in crop scheduling and cultivar selection in south-east Queensland.

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New tools derived from advances in molecular biology have not been widely adopted in plant breeding because of the inability to connect information at gene level to the phenotype in a manner that is useful for selection. We explore whether a crop growth and development modelling framework can link phenotype complexity to underlying genetic systems in a way that strengthens molecular breeding strategies. We use gene-to-phenotype simulation studies on sorghum to consider the value to marker-assisted selection of intrinsically stable QTLs that might be generated by physiological dissection of complex traits. The consequences on grain yield of genetic variation in four key adaptive traits – phenology, osmotic adjustment, transpiration efficiency, and staygreen – were simulated for a diverse set of environments by placing the known extent of genetic variation in the context of the physiological determinants framework of a crop growth and development model. It was assumed that the three to five genes associated with each trait, had two alleles per locus acting in an additive manner. The effects on average simulated yield, generated by differing combinations of positive alleles for the traits incorporated, varied with environment type. The full matrix of simulated phenotypes, which consisted of 547 location-season combinations and 4235 genotypic expression states, was analysed for genetic and environmental effects. The analysis was conducted in stages with gradually increased understanding of gene-to-phenotype relationships, which would arise from physiological dissection and modelling. It was found that environmental characterisation and physiological knowledge helped to explain and unravel gene and environment context dependencies. We simulated a marker-assisted selection (MAS) breeding strategy based on the analyses of gene effects. When marker scores were allocated based on the contribution of gene effects to yield in a single environment, there was a wide divergence in rate of yield gain over all environments with breeding cycle depending on the environment chosen for the QTL analysis. It was suggested that knowledge resulting from trait physiology and modelling would overcome this dependency by identifying stable QTLs. The improved predictive power would increase the utility of the QTLs in MAS. Developing and implementing this gene-to-phenotype capability in crop improvement requires enhanced attention to phenotyping, ecophysiological modelling, and validation studies to test the stability of candidate QTLs.