Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Optimising high-intensity treadmill training using the running speed at maximal O-2 uptake and the time for which this can be maintained

The aim of this study was to compare the effects of two high-intensity, treadmill interval-training programs on 3000-m and 5000-m running performance. Maximal oxygen uptake ((V) over dot O-2max), the running speed associated with (V) over dot O-2max (nu (V) over dot O-2max), the time for which nu (V) over dot O-2max can be maintained (T-max), running economy (RE), ventilatory threshold (VT) and 3000-m and 5000-m running times were determined in 27 well-trained runners. Subjects were then randomly assigned to three groups; (1) 60% T-max (2) 70% T-max and (3) control. Subjects in the control group continued their normal training and subjects in the two T-max groups undertook a 4-week treadmill interval-training program with the intensity set at nu (V) over dot O-2max and the interval duration at the assigned T-max. These subjects completed two interval-training sessions per week (60% T-max = six intervals/session, 70% T-max group = five intervals/session). Subjects were re-tested on all parameters at the completion of the training program. There was a significant improvement between pre- and post-training values in 3000-m time trial (TT) performance in the 60% T-max group compared to the 70% T,,a, and control groups [mean (SE); 60% T-max = 17.6 (3.5) s, 70% T-max = 6.3 (4.2) s, control = 0.5 (7.7) s]. There was no significant effect of the training program on 5000-m TT performance [60% T-max = 25.8 (13.8) s, 70% T-max = 3.7 (11.6) s, control = 9.9 (13.1) s]. Although there were no significant improvements in (V) over dot O-2max, nu (V) over dot (2max) and RE between groups, changes in (V) over dot O-2max and RE were significantly correlated with the improvement in the 3000-m TT. Furthermore, VT and T-max were significantly higher in the 60% Tmax group post-compared to pre-training. In conclusion, 3000-m running performance can be significantly improved in a group of well-trained runners, using a 4-week treadmill interval training program at nu (V) over dot O-2max with interval durations of 60% T-max.

Genetic assignment methods for the direct, real-time estimation of migration rate: a simulation-based exploration of accuracy and power

Genetic assignment methods use genotype likelihoods to draw inference about where individuals were or were not born, potentially allowing direct, real-time estimates of dispersal. We used simulated data sets to test the power and accuracy of Monte Carlo resampling methods in generating statistical thresholds for identifying F-0 immigrants in populations with ongoing gene flow, and hence for providing direct, real-time estimates of migration rates. The identification of accurate critical values required that resampling methods preserved the linkage disequilibrium deriving from recent generations of immigrants and reflected the sampling variance present in the data set being analysed. A novel Monte Carlo resampling method taking into account these aspects was proposed and its efficiency was evaluated. Power and error were relatively insensitive to the frequency assumed for missing alleles. Power to identify F-0 immigrants was improved by using large sample size (up to about 50 individuals) and by sampling all populations from which migrants may have originated. A combination of plotting genotype likelihoods and calculating mean genotype likelihood ratios (D-LR) appeared to be an effective way to predict whether F-0 immigrants could be identified for a particular pair of populations using a given set of markers.

Minimising cold damage during reproductive development among temperate rice genotypes. I. Avoiding low temperature with the use of appropriate sowing time and photoperiod-sensitive varieties

Multiple-sown field trials in 4 consecutive years in the Riverina region of south-eastern Australia provided 24 different combinations of temperature and day length, which enabled the development of crop phenology models. A crop model was developed for 7 cultivars from diverse origins to identify if photoperiod sensitivity is involved in determining phenological development, and if that is advantageous in avoiding low-temperature damage. Cultivars that were mildly photoperiod-sensitive were identified from sowing to flowering and from panicle initiation to flowering. The crop models were run for 47 years of temperature data to quantify the risk of encountering low temperature during the critical young microspore stage for 5 different sowing dates. Cultivars that were mildly photoperiod-sensitive, such as Amaroo, had a reduced likelihood of encountering low temperature for a wider range of sowing dates compared with photoperiod-insensitive cultivars. The benefits of increased photoperiod sensitivity include greater sowing flexibility and reduced water use as growth duration is shortened when sowing is delayed. Determining the optimal sowing date also requires other considerations, e. g. the risk of cold damage at other sensitive stages such as flowering and the response of yield to a delay in flowering under non-limiting conditions. It was concluded that appropriate sowing time and the use of photoperiod-sensitive cultivars can be advantageous in the Riverina region in avoiding low temperature damage during reproductive development.

Tradesperson or artist? A critical exploration of chefs' job satisfaction and turnover

The interest in experiential and embodied aspects of brand and other product usage is under-represented in tourism orientated research, which generally falls to develop a contextualised understanding of the relationships between products and consumers, and within this in particular, considerations of individuality and self, embodiment, emotion and sensation. Aiming to `reverse the causality' (Lannon and Cooper 1983:201) of consumption focused tourism research, in this paper, I draw on the tourism experiences of Audrey, a participant in a larger study to reveal how, rather than just `consuming', tourism consumers interpret the meaning and values in a wide range of products and objects, weaving individual, rich, sensory, embodied experiences which are informed by the interactions and relationships with activities and products, and by their own personalities, past experiences and aspirations. Audrey is highly conscious of her self and of elsewhereness, hers are fragile, self-indulgent, tactile experiences which offer the freedom to step out of everyday life roles into other time and situational spheres where environment, objects and sensory stimulation are paramount. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards platform-independent real-time systems

Real-time software systems are rarely developed once and left to run. They are subject to changes of requirements as the applications they support expand, and they commonly outlive the platforms they were designed to run on. A successful real-time system is duplicated and adapted to a variety of applications - it becomes a product line. Current methods for real-time software development are commonly based on low-level programming languages and involve considerable duplication of effort when a similar system is to be developed or the hardware platform changes. To provide more dependable, flexible and maintainable real-time systems at a lower cost what is needed is a platform-independent approach to real-time systems development. The development process is composed of two phases: a platform-independent phase, that defines the desired system behaviour and develops a platform-independent design and implementation, and a platform-dependent phase that maps the implementation onto the target platform. The last phase should be highly automated. For critical systems, assessing dependability is crucial. The partitioning into platform dependent and independent phases has to support verification of system properties through both phases.

Bubbly Flow Structure in Hydraulic Jump

In an open channel, a hydraulic jump is the rapid transition from super- to sub-critical flow associated with strong turbulence and air bubble entrainment in the mixing layer. New experiments were performed at relatively large Reynolds numbers using phase-detection probes. Some new signal analysis provided characteristic air-water time and length scales of the vortical structures advecting the air bubbles in the developing shear flow. An analysis of the longitudinal air-water flow structure suggested little bubble clustering in the mixing layer, although an interparticle arrival time analysis showed some preferential bubble clustering for small bubbles with chord times below 3 ms. Correlation analyses yielded longitudinal air-water time scales Txx*V1/d1 of about 0.8 in average. The transverse integral length scale Z/d1 of the eddies advecting entrained bubbles was typically between 0.25 and 0.4, irrespective of the inflow conditions within the range of the investigations. Overall the findings highlighted the complicated nature of the air-water flow

Turbulent Time and Length Scale Measurements in High-Velocity Open Channel Flows

In high-velocity open channel flows, the measurements of air-water flow properties are complicated by the strong interactions between the flow turbulence and the entrained air. In the present study, an advanced signal processing of traditional single- and dual-tip conductivity probe signals is developed to provide further details on the air-water turbulent level, time and length scales. The technique is applied to turbulent open channel flows on a stepped chute conducted in a large-size facility with flow Reynolds numbers ranging from 3.8 E+5 to 7.1 E+5. The air water flow properties presented some basic characteristics that were qualitatively and quantitatively similar to previous skimming flow studies. Some self-similar relationships were observed systematically at both macroscopic and microscopic levels. These included the distributions of void fraction, bubble count rate, interfacial velocity and turbulence level at a macroscopic scale, and the auto- and cross-correlation functions at the microscopic level. New correlation analyses yielded a characterisation of the large eddies advecting the bubbles. Basic results included the integral turbulent length and time scales. The turbulent length scales characterised some measure of the size of large vortical structures advecting air bubbles in the skimming flows, and the data were closely related to the characteristic air-water depth Y90. In the spray region, present results highlighted the existence of an upper spray region for C > 0.95 to 0.97 in which the distributions of droplet chord sizes and integral advection scales presented some marked differences with the rest of the flow.

A Nonstationary Model of Newborn EEG

The detection of seizure in the newborn is a critical aspect of neurological research. Current automatic detection techniques are difficult to assess due to the problems associated with acquiring and labelling newborn electroencephalogram (EEG) data. A realistic model for newborn EEG would allow confident development, assessment and comparison of these detection techniques. This paper presents a model for newborn EEG that accounts for its self-similar and non-stationary nature. The model consists of background and seizure sub-models. The newborn EEG background model is based on the short-time power spectrum with a time-varying power law. The relationship between the fractal dimension and the power law of a power spectrum is utilized for accurate estimation of the short-time power law exponent. The newborn EEG seizure model is based on a well-known time-frequency signal model. This model addresses all significant time-frequency characteristics of newborn EEG seizure which include; multiple components or harmonics, piecewise linear instantaneous frequency laws and harmonic amplitude modulation. Estimates of the parameters of both models are shown to be random and are modelled using the data from a total of 500 background epochs and 204 seizure epochs. The newborn EEG background and seizure models are validated against real newborn EEG data using the correlation coefficient. The results show that the output of the proposed models has a higher correlation with real newborn EEG than currently accepted models (a 10% and 38% improvement for background and seizure models, respectively).

A Critical Appraisal of Narrative in Sport History: Reading the Surf Lifesaving Debate

All debates in history—who started the Cold War, how successful were the Chartists in achieving their aims, to what extent was the recession of the American frontier culturally significant in American history— are debates between competing narrative interpretations. Moreover, because the historical imagination itself exists intertextually within our own social and political environment, the past is never discovered set aside from everyday life. History is designed and composed in the here and now.

Time-reversal test for stochastic quantum dynamics

The calculation of quantum dynamics is currently a central issue in theoretical physics, with diverse applications ranging from ultracold atomic Bose-Einstein condensates to condensed matter, biology, and even astrophysics. Here we demonstrate a conceptually simple method of determining the regime of validity of stochastic simulations of unitary quantum dynamics by employing a time-reversal test. We apply this test to a simulation of the evolution of a quantum anharmonic oscillator with up to 6.022×1023 (Avogadro's number) of particles. This system is realizable as a Bose-Einstein condensate in an optical lattice, for which the time-reversal procedure could be implemented experimentally.

On the relationship between the critical temperature and the London penetration depth in layered organic superconductors

We present an analysis of previously published measurements of the London penetration depth of layered organic superconductors. The predictions of the BCS theory of superconductivity are shown to disagree with the measured zero temperature, in plane, London penetration depth by up to two orders of magnitude. We find that fluctuations in the phase of the superconducting order parameter do not determine the superconducting critical temperature as the critical temperature predicted for a Kosterlitz–Thouless transition is more than an order of magnitude greater than is found experimentally for some materials. This places constraints on theories of superconductivity in these materials.

Least energy solutions of a critical Neumann problem with a weight

We investigate the effect of the coefficient of the critical nonlinearity for the Neumann problem on the existence of least energy solutions. As a by-product we establish a Sobolev inequality with interior norm.