Watkins and the Pragmatic Problem of Induction

Watkins proposes a neo-Popperian solution to the pragmatic problem of induction. He asserts that evidence can be used non-inductively to prefer the principle that corroboration is more successful over all human history than that, say, counter-corroboration is more successful either over this same period or in the future. Watkins's argument for rejecting the first counter-corroborationist alternative is beside the point. However, as whatever is the best strategy over all human history is irrelevant to the pragmatic problem of induction since we are not required to act in the past, and his argument for rejecting the second presupposes induction.

Moneyless business exchange - Practitioners' attitudes to business-to-business barter in Australia

In recent years, domestic business-to-business barter has become institutionalized as an alternative marketing exchange system in Australia, and elsewhere. This article reports the findings of a survey of 164 members of Australia's largest trade exchange, Bartercard There are few, if any, published empirical studies on this topic. This study is exploratory. Most firms surveyed are small firms in the services sectors. Although Bartercard has an extensive membership, trading within the system is limited with most members trading less than once per week and with barter transactions contributing less than 5% of their annual gross sales. The main benefits of membership include new customers and increased sales and networking opportunities. The main limitations include the limited functionality of the trade dollar limited trading opportunities, and practical trading difficulties. In selling, there appears to be no differential between the cash and trade prices, whereas trade dollars are discounted in purchasing. Participants acknowledge that business-to-business barter will remain and grow regardless of cyclical macroeconomic changes. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.

Late Quaternary cycles of mangrove development and decline on the north Australian continental shelf

Mangrove communities in the Australian tropics presently occur as narrow belts of vegetation in estuaries and on sheltered, muddy coasts. Palynological data from continental shelf and deep-sea cores indicate a long-term cyclical component of mangrove development and decline at a regional scale, which can be linked to specific phases of late Quaternary sealevel change. Extensive mangrove development, relative to today, occurs during periods of marine transgression, whereas very diminished mangrove occurs during marine regressions and during rarer periods of relative sea-level stability. Episodes of flourishing mangrove cannot be linked to phases of humid climate, as has been suggested in studies elsewhere. Rather, the cycle of expansion and decline of mangrove communities on a grand scale is explained in terms of contrasting physiographic settings characteristic of continental-shelf coasts during transgressive and regressive phases, in particular by the existence, or lack, of well-developed tidal estuaries. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessment of intracellular water by whole body bioelectrical impedance and total body potassium in HIV-positive patients

.:Abstract-Objective: Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is widely used as bedside assessment of body composition. Body cell mass (BCM) and intracellular water (ICW) are clinically important body compartments. Estimates of ICW obtained from BIA by different calculation approaches were compared to a reference method in male HIV-infected patients. Patients: Representative subsample of clinically stable HIV-infected outpatients, consisting of 42 men with a body mass index of 22.4 +/- 3.8 kg/m(2) (range, 13-31 kg/m(2)). Methods: Total body potassium was assessed in a whole body counter, and compared to 50 kHz mono-frequency BIA and multifrequency bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy. Six different prediction equations for ICW from BIA data were applied. Methods were compared by the Bland-Altman method. Results: BIA-derived ICW estimates explained 58% to 73% of the observed variance in ICW (TBK), but limits of confidence were wide (-16.6 to +18.2% for the best method). BIA overestimated low ICW (TBK) and underestimated high ICW (TBK) when normalized for weight or height. Mono- and multifrequency BIA were not different in precision but population-specific equations tended to narrower confidence limits. Conclusion: BIA is an unreliable method to estimate ICW in this population, in contrast to the better established estimation of total body water and extracellular water. Potassium depletion in severe malnutrition may contribute to this finding but a major part of the residual between methods remains unexplained. (C) 2000 Harcourt Publishers Ltd.

Unemployment: still hoping for a miracle?

The Australian unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since 1989, and looks likely to fall further, perhaps even reaching the rate of 5 per cent, widely regarded as full employment. However, this relatively favourable outcome has been achieved only after a cyclical expansion so long and robust that it has been widely regarded as miraculous. It is important therefore, to consider whether recent reductions in unemployment will be maintained when the current expansion ends, and whether alternative policies could produce stronger and more sustainable growth in employment.

Foraging and vein-cutting behaviour of Euploea core corinna (W.S. Macleay) (Lepidoptera : Nymphalidae) caterpillars feeding on latex-bearing leaves

Caterpillars of Euploea core corinna (W. S. Macleay) sever leaf veins prior to feeding on their latex-bearing host plants, which restricts the flow of latex at feeding sites. The severing of leaf veins by insects feeding on latex-bearing plants is commonly referred to as 'sabotaging' and is thought to be an evolved response by the insect to counter the negative effects of feeding on latex-rich leaves. Sabotaging behaviour is described for all instars of E. core corinna, with particular attention given to neonates. Vein cutting by neonate E. core corinna caterpillars can occur within 2 h of hatching, with most caterpillars establishing feeding sites within 10 h. Commonly, first instars cut an are-shaped row of leaf side-veins parallel to the leaf margin, but they may also cut the leaf mid-rib in a fashion similar to older instar larvae. From a sample of 50 E. core corinna larvae, representing all instars, we found that the diameters of the veins cut by caterpillars are closely correlated to larval head width (r=0.90). Through manipulative experiments, we demonstrate for the first time that sabotaging behaviour in neonate caterpillars imposes no detectable short-term physiological costs on those caterpillars.

A Randomized Trial of Sodium Fluoride (60 mg) ± Estrogen in Postmenopausal Osteoporotic Vertebral Fractures

Postmenopausal Caucasian women aged less than 80 years (n = 99) with one or more atraumatic vertebral fracture and no hip fractures, were treated by cyclical administration of enteric coated sodium fluoride (NaF) or no NaF for 27 months, with precautions to prevent excessive stimulation of bone turnover. In the first study 65 women, unexposed to estrogen (-E study), age 70.8 +/- 0.8 years (mean SEM) were all treated with calcium (Ca) 1.0-1.2 g daily and ergocalciferol (D) 0.25 mg per 25 kg once weekly and were randomly assigned to cyclical NaF (6 months on. 3 months off, initial dose 60 mg/day; group F CaD, n = 34) or no NaF (group CaD, n = 3 1). In the second study 34 patients. age 65.5 +/- 1.2 years, on hormone replacement therapy (E) at baseline, had this standardized, and were all treated with Ca and D and similarly randomized (FE CaD, n = 17, E CaD, n = 17) (+E study). The patients were stratified according to E status and subsequently assigned randomly to NaF. Seventy-five patients completed the trial. Both groups treated with NaF showed an increase in lumbar spinal density (by DXA) above baseline by 27 months: FE CaD + 16.2% and F CaD +9.3% (both p = 0.0001). In neither group CaD nor E CaD did lumbar spinal density increase. Peripheral bone loss occurred at most sites in the F CaD group at 27 months: tibia/fibula shaft -7.3% (p = 0.005); femoral shaft -7.1% (p = 0.004); distal forearm -4.0% (p = 0.004); total hip -4.1% (p = 0. 003); and femoral neck -3.5% (p = 0.006). No significant loss occurred in group FE CaD. Differences between the two NaF groups were greatest at the total hip at 27 months but were not significant [p < 0.05; in view of the multiple bone mineral density (BMD) sites, an alpha of 0.01 was employed to denote significance in BMD changes throughout this paper]. Using Cox's proportional hazards model, in the -E study there were significantly more patients with first fresh vertebral fractures in those treated with NaF than in those not so treated (RR = 24.2, p = 0.008, 95% CI 2.3-255). Patients developing first fresh fractures in the first 9 months were markedly different between groups: -23% of F CaD, 0 of CaD, 29% of FE CaD and 0 of E CaD. The incidence of incomplete (stress) fractures was similar in the two NaF-treated groups. Complete nonvertebral fractures did not occur in the two +E groups, there were no differences between groups F CaD and CaD. Baseline BMD (spine and femoral neck) was related to incident vertebral fractures in the control groups (no NaF), but not in the two NaF groups. Our results and a literature review indicate that fluoride salts. if used, should be at low dosage, with pretreatment and co-treatment with a bone resorption inhibitor.

An auction theoretical approach to fiscal wars

I examine a situation where a firm chooses to locate a new factory in one of several jurisdictions. The value of the factory may differ among jurisdictions and it depends on the private information held by each jurisdiction. Jurisdictions compete for the location of the new factory. This competition may take the form of expenditures already incurred on infrastructure, commitments to spend on infrastructure, tax incentives or even cash payments. The model combines two elements that are usually considered separately; competition is desirable because we want the factory to be located in the jurisdiction that values it the most, but competition in itself is wasteful. I show that the expected total amount paid to the firm under a large family of arrangements is the same. Moreover, I show that the ex-ante optimal mechanism that is, the mechanism that guarantees that the firm chooses the jurisdiction with the highest value for the factory, minimizes the total expected payment to the firm, and balances the budget in an ex-ante sense - can be implemented by running a standard auction and subsidizing participation.

Neogene and Quaternary rollback evolution of the Tyrrhenian Sea, the Apennines, and the Sicilian Maghrebides

Reconstruction of the evolution of the Tyrrhenian Sea shows that the major stage of rifting associated with the opening of this basin began at similar to10 Ma. It involved two episodes of back arc extension, which were induced by the rollback of a west dipping subducting slab. The first period of extension (10-6 Ma) was prominent in the northern Tyrrhenian Sea and in the western part of the southern Tyrrhenian Sea. The second period of extension, mainly affected the southern Tyrrhenian Sea, began in the latest Messinian (6-5 Ma) and has been accompanied by subduction rollback at rates of 60-100 km Myr(-1). Slab reconstruction, combined with paleomagnetic and paleogeographic constraints, indicates that in the central Apennines, the latest Messinian (6-5 Ma) arrival of a carbonate platform at the subduction zone impeded subduction and initiated a slab tear and major strike-slip faults. These processes resulted in the formation of a narrow subducting slab beneath the Ionian Sea that has undergone faster subduction rollback and induced extreme rates of back arc extension.

The effect of defendant gender on juror decision-making

Research investigating the role of stereotypes in jury decision-making has typically considered stereotypes as acting as peripheral cues in determin ing the credibility of experts or likelihood of guilt of defendants — with counter-stereotypic courtroom participants faring less well. The present study investigated the possibility that the extent to which courtroom participants are stereotypic can alter the mode of information processing. Students (N = 78) read a transcript of a case in which either a male or female allegedly committed an armed robbery. As predicted, the female counter-stereotypic defendant was distracting and effortful processing only occurred when the defendant was male. The male was seen as more guilty and the prosecution's case was more convincing when the prosecution had a strong, but not weak, case. There were no effects of case strength for the female defendant. Results are discussed in terms of the role of stereotypes in the jury decision-making.

Isolated limb perfusion with melphalan for human melanoma xenografts in the hindlimb of nude rats: A surviving animal model

We have established a surviving model of isolated limb perfusion using xenografts of the human melanoma cell line MM 96L injected subcutaneously into the hindlimb of a nude rat, The femoral artery and vein were cannulated via the left renal artery and vein and the hind limb was isolated using tourniquets. The limb was perfused with Krebs Heinseleit buffer at 37 degrees C containing 4.7% bovine serum albumin at a constant flow rate of 4 mi per min for 30-60 min with 100% survival of the animals, Tumour vascularization and blood flow were demonstrated using vascular casts and [Cr-51]-microspheres. Following the addition of melphalan (15 or 100 mu g/ml), drug concentrations in the perfusate, tissues and systemic circulation were determined using high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC), Systemic leakage, assessed using [I-125]albumin and melphalan and detected by a gamma-counter and HPLC respectively, was <0.5%. The melphalan concentration and tissue flow rate in the tumour deposits were 40 and 30% respectively, when compared with the surrounding subcutaneous tissue, At a dose of 15 mu g/ml, melphalan caused a reduction in tumour growth after 60 min perfusion, and a significant reduction in tumour size was seen when the melphalan dose was 100 mu g/ml. The surviving nude rat model of isolated limb perfusion for recurrent melanoma will allow examination of optimal perfusion conditions, along with the pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and efficacy of melphalan and other drugs.

Effect of the Bloch-Siegert shift in a strongly driven transition: Asymmetric Autler-Townes profile

Under the conditions of the rotating wave approximation (RWA), a transition strongly driven by a resonant oscillating field displays the well known symmetric Autler-Townes doublet. However, if the counter-rotating component, neglected in the RWA, is taken into account, the Bloch-Siegert shift gives rise to an Autler-Townes doublet of unequal intensity even in the case of a resonant driving field. This effect is investigated theoretically in a V-shaped three-level double-resonance configuration and the results are presented in this paper. An interesting observation is that the level of asymmetry not only depends on the driving-field intensity but also on the characteristics of the driven system including relaxation rates and equilibrium population distributions.

Willingness to pay for conservation of the Asian elephant in Sri Lanka: A contingent valuation study

Results from a CVM survey of willingness to pay for the conservation of the Asian elephant of a sample of urban residents in three selected housing schemes in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka, are reported. Face– to–face surveys were conducted using an interview schedule. A non-linear logit regression model was constructed to analyse the respondents’ responses for the payment principle questions and to identify the factors that influence their responses. We investigate whether urban residents’ WTP for the conservation of elephants is sufficient to compensate farmers for the damage caused by elephants, and consequently to raise farmers’ tolerance of the presence of elephants on the farming fields. We find that beneficiaries (the urban residents) could compensate losers (the farmers in the HEC affected areas) and be better off than in the absence of elephants in Sri Lanka. This suggests that there is a strong economic case for the conservation of the wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. However, we have insufficient data to determine Sri Lanka’s optimal elephant population in the Kaldor-Hicks sense.

Willingness of Sri Lankan farmers to pay for a scheme to conserve elephants: An empirical analysis

This paper explores the feasibility of adopting an integrated economic approach to raise farmers’ tolerance of the presence of elephants on their farming lands. Responses to this approach were sought from a sample of farmers in the areas affected by human elephant conflict in the northwestern province of Sri Lanka. Results from a contingent valuation survey of their willingness to pay for a scheme to conserve elephants are also reported. Two separate logit regression analyses were undertaken to examine the factors that influence the farmers’ responses for the payment principle question and their opinions on the integrated economic approach. Although found that the majority of the respondents expressed their willingness to pay for the proposed scheme and supported for the implementation of the integrated approach, we have insufficient data yet to determine if their support and financial contribution would be sufficient to set up this programme and also to predict its economic viability. Nevertheless, the overall finding of this study provides an improved economic assessment of the farmers’ attitudes towards the wild elephant in Sri Lanka. At the same time the study shows that, contrary to commonly held assumptions, farmers in this developing country, do support wildlife conservation.

The net benefit of saving the Asian Elephant: A policy and contingent valuation Study

Reports results from a contingent valuation survey of willingness to pay for the conservation of the Asian elephant of a sample of urban residents living in three selected housing schemes in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka. Face–to–face surveys were conducted using an interview schedule. A non-linear logit regression model is used to analyse the respondents’ responses for the payment principle questions and to identify the factors that influence their responses. We investigate whether urban residents’ willingness to pay for the conservation of elephants is sufficient to compensate farmers for the damage caused by elephants. We find that the beneficiaries (the urban residents) could compensate losers (the farmers in the areas affected by human–elephant conflict) and be better off than in the absence of elephants in Sri Lanka. Therefore, there is a strong economic case for the conservation of the wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. However, we have insufficient data to determine the optimal level of this elephant population in the Kaldor-Hicks sense. Nevertheless, the current population of elephant in Sri Lanka is Kaldor-Hicks preferable to having none.