A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

The relationship between radiation-induced chemical processes and transverse relaxation times in polymer gel dosimeters

The effects of ionizing radiation in different compositions of polymer gel dosimeters are investigated using FT-Raman spectroscopy and NMR T-2 relaxation times. The dosimeters are manufactured from different concentrations of comonomers (acrylamide and N,N'-methylene-bis-acrylamide) dispersed in different concentrations of an aqueous gelatin matrix. Results are analysed using a model of fast exchange of magnetization between three proton pools. The fraction of protons in each pool is determined using the known chemical composition of the dosimeter and FT-Raman spectroscopy. Based on these results, the physical and chemical processes in interplay in the dosimeters are examined in view of their effect on the changes in T-2 The precipitation of growing macroradicals and the scavenging of free radicals by gelatin are used to explain the rate of polymerization. The model describes the changes in T-2 as a function of the absorbed dose up to 50 Gy for the different compositions. This is expected to aid the theoretical design of new, more efficient dosimeters, since it was demonstrated that the optimum dosimeter (i.e, with the lowest dose resolution) must have a range of relaxation times which match the range of T-2 values which can be determined with the lowest uncertainty using an MRI scanner.

Finger and A-B ridge count, and fluctuating asymmetry in psychosis: A catchment area case-control study

Dermatoglyphic measures are of interest to schizophrenia research because they serve as persistent markers of deviant development in foetal life. Several studies have reported alterations in A–B ridge counts, total finger ridge counts and measures related to asymmetry in schizophrenia. The aim of this study was to assess these measures in an Australian catchment area, case-control study. Individuals with psychosisŽns246.were drawn from a catchment-area prevalence study, and well controlsŽns229. were recruited from the same area. Finger and palm prints were taken usingan inkless technique and all dermatoglyphic measures were assessed by a trained rater blind to case status. The dermatoglyphic measures Žfinger ridge count, A–B ridge count, and their derived asymmetry measures. were divided into quartiles based on the distribution of these variables in controls. The main analysis Žlogistic regression controlled for age and sex.examined all psychotic disorders, with planned subgroup analyses comparing controls with Ž1. nonaffective psychosis Žschizophrenia, delusional disorder, schizophreniform psychosis, atypical psychosis.andŽ2. affective psychosis Ždepression with psychosis, bipolar disorder, schizoaffective psychosis.. There were no statistically significant alterations in the odds of havinga psychotic disorder for any of the dermatoglyphic measures. The results did not change when we examined affective and nonaffective psychosis separately. The dermatoglyphic features that distinguish schizophreniar psychosis in other studies were not identified in this Australian study. Regional variations in these findings may provide clues to differential ethnicrgenetic and environmental factors that are associated with schizophrenia. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Developing qualitative career assessment processes

Assessment has been integral to career counseling since the early 1900s. During that time, the greatest amount of attention was focused on quantitative assessment. Thus, there is still very little to guide the development and conduct of qualitative assessment in career counseling. The authors present an overview of qualitative career assessment and its theoretical underpinnings and propose suggestions that could guide the development of qualitative career assessment instruments.

Mental rotation processes in mathematically gifted boys: An fMRI investigation

The functional brain organisation of mathematically gifted adolescents may be different from those of average mathematical ability. In this study we used fMRI to examine the neural circuitry that mediates the performance of mathematically gifted boys and average ability controls while engaged in mental rotation. Eight math gifted male adolescents and five average ability male adolescents were presented 18 control and 18 mental rotation trials in two separate blocks. Participants selected one of four test stimuli to match the target stimulus by pressing one of four fibreoptic buttons. The control task required a simple 'best match' for the target stimulus. EPI scans were acquired on a 3-T MR scanner and a fixed effects statistical analysis (SPM99) was used to identify areas of significant activation in the rotation tasks, for the two groups. The results indicate that during mental rotation both groups activate the parietal lobes bilaterally, though to different levels. Moreover, the math gifted are uniformly bilateral in their pattern of activation, and engage some anterior regions not found in those of average ability. These regions include bilateral prefrontal cortex and the right anterior cingulate, which may serve to heighten concentration, and to optimise the pre-planning of purposeful actions.

Limiting conditional distributions for birth-death processes

In a recent paper [16], one of us identified all of the quasi-stationary distributions for a non-explosive, evanescent birth-death process for which absorption is certain, and established conditions for the existence of the corresponding limiting conditional distributions. Our purpose is to extend these results in a number of directions. We shall consider separately two cases depending on whether or not the process is evanescent. In the former case we shall relax the condition that absorption is certain. Furthermore, we shall allow for the possibility that the minimal process might be explosive, so that the transition rates alone will not necessarily determine the birth-death process uniquely. Although we shall be concerned mainly with the minimal process, our most general results hold for any birth-death process whose transition probabilities satisfy both the backward and the forward Kolmogorov differential equations.

The effect of emotional and attentional processes on blink startle modulation and on electrodermal responses

Emotional accounts of startle modulation predict that startle is facilitated if elicited during aversive foreground stimuli. Attentional accounts hold that startle is enhanced if startle-eliciting stimulus and foreground stimulus are in the same modality. Visual and acoustic foreground stimuli and acoustic startle probes were employed in aversive differential conditioning and in a stimulus discrimination task. Differential conditioning was evident in electrodermal responses and blink latency shortening in both modalities, but effects on magnitude facilitation were found only for visual stimuli. In the discrimination task, skin conductance responses, blink latency shortening, and blink magnitude facilitation were larger during to-be-attended stimuli regardless of stimulus modality. The present results support the notion that attention and emotion can affect blink startle modulation during foreground stimuli.

Computer technology - A political player in social policy processes

The absence of considerations of technology in policy studies reinforces the popular notion that technology is a neutral tool, Through an analysis of the role played by computers in the policy processes of Australia's Department of Social Security, this paper argues that computers are political players in policy processes, Findings indicate that computers make aspects of the social domain knowable and therefore governable, The use of computers makes previously infeasible policies possible, Computers also operate as bureaucrats and as agents of client surveillance. Increased policy change, reduced discretion and increasingly targeted and complex policies can be attributed to the use of computer technology, If policy processes are to be adequately understood and analysed, then the role of technology in those processes must be considered.

Folding processes and solitary waves in structural geology

Evolution of localized folding patterns in layered elastic and visco-elastic materials is reviewed in the context of compressed geological systems. The thin strut or plate embedded in a visco-elastic medium is used as an archetypal example to describe localized buckles which, in contrast to those from earlier formulations, appear in the absence of triggering imperfections. Structural and material effects are surveyed and important nonlinear characteristics are identified. A brief review of possible methods of analysis is conducted.