Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phenotypic and genetic analyses of a short measure of psychosis-proneness in a large-scale Australian twin study

Previous genetic analyses of psychosis proneness have been limited by their small sample size. For the purposes of large-scale screening, a 12-item questionnaire was developed through a two-stage process of reduction from the full Chapman and Chapman scales. 3685 individuals (including 1438 complete twin pairs) aged 18–25 years and enrolled in the volunteer Australian Twin Registry returned a mail questionnaire which included this psychosis proneness scale and the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire. Despite the brevity of the questionnaire, item and factor analysis identified four unambiguous and essentially uncorrelated scales. There were (1) Perceptual Aberration – Magical Ideation; (2) Hypomania – Impulsivity/Nonconformity; (3) Social Anhedonia and (4) Physical Anhedonia. Model-fitting analyses showed additive genetic and specific environmental factors were sufficient for three of the four scales, with the Social Anhedonia scale requiring also a parameter for genetic dominance. There was no evidence for the previously hypothesised sex differences in the genetic determination of psychosis-proneness. The potential value of multivariate genetic analysis to examine the relationship between these four scales and dimensions of personality is discussed. The growing body of longitudinal evidence on psychosis-proneness suggests the value of incorporating this brief measure into developmental twin studies.

Change in abundance of dugongs in Shark Bay, Ningaloo and Exmouth Gulf, Western Australia: evidence for large-scale migration

The third in a series of five-yearly aerial surveys for dugongs in Shark Bay, Ningaloo Reef and Exmouth Gulf was conducted in July 1999. The first two surveys provided evidence of an apparently stable population of dugongs, with similar to 1000 animals in each of Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef, and 10000 in Shark Bay. We report estimates of less than 200 for each of Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef and similar to 14000 for Shark Bay. This is an apparent overall increase in the dugong population over this whole region, but with a distributional shift of animals to the south. The most plausible hypothesis to account for a large component of this apparent population shift is that animals in Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef moved to Shark Bay, most likely after Tropical Cyclone Vance impacted available dugong forage in the northern habitat. Bias associated with survey estimate methodology, and normal changes in population demographics may also have contributed to the change. The movement of large numbers of dugongs over the scale we suggest has important management implications. First, such habitat-driven shifts in regional abundance will need to be incorporated in assessing the effectiveness of marine protected areas that aim to protect dugongs and their habitat. Second, in circumstances where aerial surveys are used to estimate relative trends in abundance of dugongs, animal movements of the type we propose could lead to errors in interpretation.

Design and implementation of a windows-based parallel computing environment for large scale optimization

A parallel computing environment to support optimization of large-scale engineering systems is designed and implemented on Windows-based personal computer networks, using the master-worker model and the Parallel Virtual Machine (PVM). It is involved in decomposition of a large engineering system into a number of smaller subsystems optimized in parallel on worker nodes and coordination of subsystem optimization results on the master node. The environment consists of six functional modules, i.e. the master control, the optimization model generator, the optimizer, the data manager, the monitor, and the post processor. Object-oriented design of these modules is presented. The environment supports steps from the generation of optimization models to the solution and the visualization on networks of computers. User-friendly graphical interfaces make it easy to define the problem, and monitor and steer the optimization process. It has been verified by an example of a large space truss optimization. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The 1000 brightest HIPASS galaxies H I properties

We present the HIPASS Bright Galaxy Catalog (BGC), which contains the 1000 H I brightest galaxies in the southern sky as obtained from the H i Parkes All-Sky Survey ( HIPASS). The selection of the brightest sources is based on their H I peak flux density (S-peak greater than or similar to116 mJy) as measured from the spatially integrated HIPASS spectrum. The derived H I masses range from similar to10(7) to 4 x 10(10) M-.. While the BGC ( z< 0.03) is complete in S-peak, only a subset of &SIM;500 sources can be considered complete in integrated H I flux density (F-H I &GSIM;25 Jy km s(-1)). The HIPASS BGC contains a total of 158 new redshifts. These belong to 91 new sources for which no optical or infrared counterparts have previously been cataloged, an additional 51 galaxies for which no redshifts were previously known, and 16 galaxies for which the cataloged optical velocities disagree. Of the 91 newly cataloged BGC sources, only four are definite H I clouds: while three are likely Magellanic debris with velocities around 400 km s(-1), one is a tidal cloud associated with the NGC 2442 galaxy group. The remaining 87 new BGC sources, the majority of which lie in the zone of avoidance, appear to be galaxies. We identified optical counterparts to all but one of the 30 new galaxies at Galactic latitudes > 10degrees. Therefore, the BGC yields no evidence for a population of free-floating'' intergalactic H I clouds without associated optical counterparts. HIPASS provides a clear view of the local large-scale structure. The dominant features in the sky distribution of the BGC are the Supergalactic Plane and the Local Void. In addition, one can clearly see the Centaurus Wall, which connects via the Hydra and Antlia Clusters to the Puppis Filament. Some previously hardly noticable galaxy groups stand out quite distinctly in the H I sky distribution. Several new structures, including some not behind the Milky Way, are seen for the first time.

Of sheep and rain: large-scale population dynamics of the red kangaroo

1. We analysed time-series data from populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus, Desmarest) inhabiting four areas in the pastoral zone of South Australia. We formulated a set of a priori models to disentangle the relative effects of the covariates: rainfall, harvesting, intraspecific competition, and domestic herbivores, on kangaroo population-growth rate. 2. The statistical framework allowed for spatial variation in the growth-rate parameters, response to covariates, and environmental variability, as well as spatially correlated error terms due to shared environment. 3. The most parsimonious model included all covariates but no area-specific parameter values, suggesting that kangaroo densities respond in the same way to the covariates across the areas. 4. The temporal dynamics were spatially correlated, even after taking into account the potentially synchronizing effect of rainfall, harvesting and domestic herbivores. 5. Counter-intuitively, we found a positive rather than negative effect of domestic herbivore density on the population-growth rate of kangaroos. We hypothesize that this effect is caused by sheep and cattle acting as a surrogate for resource availability beyond rainfall. 6. Even though our system is well studied, we must conclude that approximating resources by surrogates such as rainfall is more difficult than previously thought. This is an important message for studies of consumer-resource systems and highlights the need to be explicit about population processes when analysing population patterns.

A new algorithm for the detection of intercluster galaxy filaments using galaxy orientation alignments

We present a new algorithm for detecting intercluster galaxy filaments based upon the assumption that the orientations of constituent galaxies along such filaments are non-isotropic. We apply the algorithm to the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey catalogue and find that it readily detects many straight filaments between close cluster pairs. At large intercluster separations (> 15 h(-1) Mpc), we find that the detection efficiency falls quickly, as it also does with more complex filament morphologies. We explore the underlying assumptions and suggest that it is only in the case of close cluster pairs that we can expect galaxy orientations to be significantly correlated with filament direction.

Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia: An example of the co-existence of significant marine mammal populations and large-scale coastal development

Recent analyses assert that large marine vertebrates such as marine mammals are now 'functionally or entirely extinct in most coastal ecosystems'. Moreton Bay is a large diverse marine ecosystem bordering the fastest growing area in Australia. The human population is over 1.6 million and increasing yearly by between 10% and 13% with resultant impacts upon the adjoining marine environment. Nonetheless, significant populations of three species of marine mammals are resident within Moreton Bay and a further 14 species are seasonal or occasional visitors. This paper reviews the current and historical distributions and abundance of these species in the context of the current management regime and suggests initiatives to increase the resilience of marine mammal populations to the changes wrought by the burgeoning human population in coastal environments. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Establishing representative no-take areas in the Great Barrier Reef : Large scale implementation of theory on marine protected areas

The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, an area almost the size , of Japan, has a new network of no-take areas that significantly improves the protection of biodiversity. The new marine park zoning implements, in a quantitative manner, many of the theoretical design principles discussed in the literature. For example, the new network of no-take areas has at least 20% protection per bioregion, minimum levels of protection for all known habitats and special or unique features, and minimum sizes for no-take areas of at least 10 or 20 kat across at the smallest diameter Overall, more than 33% of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park is now in no-take areas (previously 4.5%). The steps taken leading to this outcome were to clarify to the interested public why the existing level of protection wets inadequate; detail the conservation objectives of establishing new no-take areas; work with relevant and independent experts to define, and contribute to, the best scientific process to deliver on the objectives; describe the biodiversity (e.g., map bioregions); define operational principles needed to achieve the objectives; invite community input on all of The above; gather and layer the data gathered in round-table discussions; report the degree of achievement of principles for various options of no-take areas; and determine how to address negative impacts. Some of the key success factors in this case have global relevance and include focusing initial communication on the problem to be addressed; applying the precautionary principle; using independent experts; facilitating input to decision making; conducting extensive and participatory consultation; having an existing marine park that encompassed much of the ecosystem; having legislative power under federal law; developing high-level support; ensuring agency Priority and ownership; and being able to address the issue of displaced fishers.

A practical tool to identify water bodies with potential for mosquito habitat under mangrove canopy: Large-scale airborne scanning in the thermal band

We address the practical issue of using thermal image data without adjustment or calibration for projects which do not require actual temperatures per se. Large scale airborne scanning in the thermal band at 8.5–13 μm was obtained for a mangrove and salt marsh in subtropical eastern Australia. For open sites, the raw image values were strongly positively correlated with ground level temperatures. For sites under mangrove canopy cover, image values indicated temperatures 2–4°C lower than those measured on the ground. The raw image was useful in identifying water bodies under canopy and has the potential for locating channel lines of deeper water. This could facilitate modification to increase flushing in the system, thereby reducing mosquito larval survival.