Science-policy in environmental and health risk assessment: if we cannot do without, can we do better?

How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.

Sustainability metrics for coal power generation in Australia

The basis of this work was to investigate the relative environmental impacts of various power generators knowing that all plants are located in totally different environments and that different receptors will experience different impacts. Based on IChemE sustainability metrics paradigm, we calculated potential environmental indicators (P-EI) that represent the environmental burden of masses of potential pollutants discharged into different receiving media. However, a P-EI may not be of significance, as it may not be expressed at all in different conditions, so to try and include some receiver significance we developed a methodology to take into account some specific environmental indicators (S-EI) that refer to the environmental attributes of a specific site. In this context, we acquired site specific environmental data related to the airsheds and water catchment areas in different locations for a limited number of environmental indicators such as human health (carcinogenic) effects, atmospheric acidification, photochemical (ozone) smog and eutrophication. The S-EI results from this particular analysis show that atmospheric acidification has highest impact value while health risks due to fly ash emissions are considered not to be as significant. This is due to the fact that many coal power plants in Australia are located in low population density air sheds. The contribution of coal power plants to photochemical (ozone) smog and eutrophication were not significant. In this study, we have considered emission related data trends to reflect technology performance (e.g., P-EI indicators) while a real sustainability metric can be associated only with the specific environmental conditions of the relevant sites (e.g., S-EI indicators).

Trusting technology: Women aged 40-49 years participating in screening for breast cancer - an exploratory study

Objective: This paper reports key findings from an exploratory study of factors associated with women's decision to participate in mass mammography screening in Tasmania. In particular, we explored factors that contribute to the choice to participate in screening by women who are outside the primary target group, and for whom the evidence of benefit remains contentious. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a small sample of women aged between 40 and 49 years in rural Tasmania who had participated in mammography screening. Results: Key ideas that appeared to shape participation included the fear of breast cancer, trust in technology, and taking responsibility for health. Information provision is also an important factor in shaping participation patterns. Conclusions and implications: In order to facilitate informed consent, information provision in this area should take account of the dominant ideas that shape the decision to participate in breast cancer screening.

The decomposition of starch grains in soils: implications for archaeological residue analyses

Recent research involving starch grains recovered from archaeological contexts has highlighted the need for a review of the mechanisms and consequences of starch degradation specifically relevant to archaeology. This paper presents a review of the plant physiological and soil biochemical literature pertinent to the archaeological investigation of starch grains found as residues on artefacts and in archaeological sediments. Preservative and destructive factors affecting starch survival, including enzymes, clays, metals and soil properties, as well as differential degradation of starches of varying sizes and amylose content, were considered. The synthesis and character of chloroplast-formed 'transitory' starch grains, and the differentiation of these from 'storage' starches formed in tubers and seeds were also addressed. Findings of the review include the higher susceptibility of small starch grains to biotic degradation, and that protective mechanisms are provided to starch by both soil aggregates and artefact surfaces. These findings suggest that current reasoning which equates higher numbers of starch grains on an artefact than in associated sediments with the use of the artefact for processing starchy plants needs to be reconsidered. It is argued that an increased understanding of starch decomposition processes is necessary to accurately reconstruct both archaeological activities involving starchy plants and environmental change investigated through starch analysis. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risks for ross river virus disease in tropical Australia

Background There are no analytical studies of individual risks for Ross River virus (RRV) disease. Therefore, we set out to determine individual risk and protective factors for RRV disease in a high incidence area and to assess the utility of the case-control design applied for this purpose to an arbovirus disease. Methods We used a prospective matched case-control study of new community cases of RRV disease in the local government areas of Cairns, Mareeba, Douglas, and Atherton, in tropical Queensland, from January I to May 31, 1998. Results Protective measures against mosquitoes reduced the risk for disease. Mosquito coils, repellents, and citronella candles each decreased risk by at least 2-fold, with a dose-response for the number of protective measures used. Light-coloured clothing decreased risk 3-fold. Camping increased the risk 8-fold. Conclusions These risks were substantial and statistically significant, and provide a basis for educational programs on individual protection against RRV disease in Australia. Our study demonstrates the utility of the case-control method for investigating arbovirus risks. Such a risk analysis has not been done before for RRV infection, and is infrequently reported for other arbovirus infections.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Applied to the Design of an Innovative Drying Process for Sewage Sludge

Most adverse environmental impacts result from design decisions made long before manufacturing or usage. In order to prevent this situation, several authors have proposed the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) at the very first phases of the design of a process, a product or a service. The study in this paper presents an innovative thermal drying process for sewage sludge called fry-drying, in which dewatered sludge is directly contacted in the dryer with hot recycled cooking oils (RCO) as the heat medium. Considering the practical difficulties for the disposal of these two wastes, fry-drying presents a potentially convenient method for their combined elimination by incineration of the final fry-dried sludge. An analytical comparison between a conventional drying process and the new proposed fry-drying process is reported, with reference to some environmental impact categories. The results of this study, applied at the earliest stages of the design of the process, assist evaluation of the feasibility of such system compared to a current disposal process for the drying and incineration of sewage sludge.

Benign epithelial ovarian tumours - cancer precursors or markers for ovarian cancer risk?

The natural history of the development of epithelial ovarian cancer remains obscure and no effective screening test exists. In several human malignancies progression from benign to invasive tumour occurs, but this sequence has not been established for epithelial ovarian cancer. We have reviewed epidemiological, histopathological and molecular studies of benign epithelial ovarian tumours to assess the evidence for and against such a progression in ovarian cancer. These data suggest that a diagnosis of a benign ovarian cyst or tumour is associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer later in life. Current evidence also suggests that benign serous tumours can progress to low-grade serous cancer and that benign mucinous tumours can progress to mucinous cancer. The more common high-grade serous ovarian cancers are likely to arise de novo.

Measurement of community beliefs about colorectal cancer

Few educational campaigns have focused on bowel cancer, though studies have indicated that members of the community need and want current information about relevant issues. In order to facilitate research in this area, reliable and valid measures of community attitudes are needed. Content validity of a survey instrument was obtained through use of a Delphi process with Directors of Education from the Australia Cancer Council and focus group discussions with informed members of the public. The subsequent survey of community perceptions about colorectal cancer included a broad range of content areas related to the risk of bowel cancer, preventing and coping with bowel cancer and beliefs about susceptibility and severity. The construct validity of these content areas was investigated by use of a factor analysis and confirmation of an association with related predictor variables. Two measures related to personal influence and anticipated coping responses showed favourable psychometric properties, including moderate to high levels of internal consistency and test-retest reliability. A test of the concurrent validity of these measures requires further development of instruments related to colorectal cancer or adaptation of measures from other areas of health research. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk technology in Australia: The role of the job seeker classification instrument in employment services

Promoted as the key policy response to unemployment, the Job Network constitutes an array of interlocking processes that position unemployed people as `problems' in need of remediation. Unemployment is presented as a primary risk threatening society, and unemployed people are presented as displaying various degrees of riskiness. The Job Seeker Classification Instrument (JSCI) is a `technology' employed by Centrelink to assess `risk' and to determine the type of interaction that unemployed people have with the job Network. In the first instance, we critically examine the development of the JSCI and expose issues that erode its credibility and legitimacy. Second, employing the analytical tools of discourse analysis, we show how the JSCI both assumes and imposes particular subject identities on unemployed people. The purpose of this latter analysis is to illustrate the consequences of the sorts of technologies and interventions used within the job Network.

Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic effects on alcohol dependence risk: re-evaluating the importance of psychiatric and other heritable risk factors

Background. Genetic influences have been shown to play a major role in determining the risk of alcohol dependence (AD) in both women and men; however, little attention has been directed to identifying the major sources of genetic variation in AD risk. Method. Diagnostic telephone interview data from young adult Australian twin pairs born between 1964 and 1971 were analyzed. Cox regression models were fitted to interview data from a total of 2708 complete twin pairs (690 MZ female, 485 MZ male, 500 DZ female, 384 DZ male, and 649 DZ female/male pairs). Structural equation models were fitted to determine the extent of residual genetic and environmental influences on AD risk while controlling for effects of sociodemographic and psychiatric predictors on risk. Results. Risk of AD was increased in males, in Roman Catholics, in those reporting a history of major depression, social anxiety problems, and conduct disorder, or (in females only) a history of suicide attempt and childhood sexual abuse; but was decreased in those reporting Baptist, Methodist, or Orthodox religion, in those who reported weekly church attendance, and in university-educated males. After allowing for the effects of sociodemographic and psychiatric predictors, 47 % (95 % CI 28-55) of the residual variance in alcoholism risk was attributable to additive genetic effects, 0 % (95 % CI 0-14) to shared environmental factors, and 53 % (95 % CI 45-63) to non-shared environmental influences. Conclusions. Controlling for other risk factors, substantial residual heritability of AD was observed, suggesting that psychiatric and other risk factors play a minor role in the inheritance of AD.

Colorectal cancer screening in Australia: an economic evaluation of a potential biennial screening program using faecal occult blood tests

Objective: To evaluate whether the introduction of a national, co-ordinated screening program using the faecal occult blood test represents 'value-for-money' from the perspective of the Australian Government as third-party funder. Methods: The annual equivalent costs and consequences of a biennial screening program in 'steady-state' operation were estimated for the Australian population using 1996 as the reference year. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the years of life lost (YLLs) averted, and the health service costs were modelled, based on the epidemiology and the costs of colorectal cancer in Australia together with the mortality reduction achieved in randomised controlled trials. Uncertainty in the model was examined using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Results: We estimate a minimum or 'base program' of screening those aged 55 to 69 years could avert 250 deaths per annum (95% uncertainty interval 99-400), at a gross cost of $A55 million (95% UI $A46 million to $A96 million) and a gross incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $A17,000/DALY (95% UI $A13,000/DALY to $A52,000/DALY). Extending the program to include 70 to 74-year-olds is a more effective option (cheaper and higher health gain) than including the 50 to 54-year-olds. Conclusions: The findings of this study support the case for a national program directed at the 55 to 69-year-old age group with extension to 70 to 74-year-olds if there are sufficient resources. The pilot tests recently announced in Australia provide an important opportunity to consider the age range for screening and the sources of uncertainty, identified in the modelled evaluation, to assist decisions on implementing a full national program.