Modelling the population cost-effectiveness of current and evidence-based optimal treatment for anxiety disorders

Background. The present paper describes a component of a large Population cost-effectiveness study that aimed to identify the averted burden and economic efficiency of current and optimal treatment for the major mental disorders. This paper reports on the findings for the anxiety disorders (panic disorder/agoraphobia, social phobia, generalized anxiety disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder and obsessive-compulsive disorder). Method. Outcome was calculated as averted 'years lived with disability' (YLD), a population summary measure of disability burden. Costs were the direct health care costs in 1997-8 Australian dollars. The cost per YLD averted (efficiency) was calculated for those already in contact with the health system for a mental health problem (current care) and for a hypothetical optimal care package of evidence-based treatment for this same group. Data sources included the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-being and published treatment effects and unit costs. Results. Current coverage was around 40% for most disorders with the exception of social phobia at 21%. Receipt of interventions consistent with evidence-based care ranged from 32% of those in contact with services for social phobia to 64% for post-traumatic stress disorder. The cost of this care was estimated at $400 million, resulting in a cost per YLD averted ranging from $7761 for generalized anxiety disorder to $34 389 for panic/agoraphobia. Under optimal care, costs remained similar but health gains were increased substantially, reducing the cost per YLD to < $20 000 for all disorders. Conclusions. Evidence-based care for anxiety disorders would produce greater population health gain at a similar cost to that of current care, resulting in a substantial increase in the cost-effectiveness of treatment.

Simple texture-based liberation modelling of ores

Mineralogical analysis is often used to assess the liberation properties of particles. A direct method of estimating liberation is to actually break particles and then directly obtain liberation information from applying mineralogical analysis to each size-class of the product. Another technique is to artificially apply random breakage to the feed particle sections to estimate the resultant distribution of product particle sections. This technique provides a useful alternative estimation method. Because this technique is applied to particle sections, the actual liberation properties for particles can only be estimated by applying stereological correction. A recent stereological technique has been developed that allows the discrepancy between the linear intercept composition distribution and the particle section composition distribution to be used as guide for estimating the particle composition distribution. The paper will show results validating this new technique using numerical simulation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of charge size distribution on net-power draw of tumbling mill based on DEM modelling

Modelling and optimization of the power draw of large SAG/AG mills is important due to the large power draw which modern mills require (5-10 MW). The cost of grinding is the single biggest cost within the entire process of mineral extraction. Traditionally, modelling of the mill power draw has been done using empirical models. Although these models are reliable, they cannot model mills and operating conditions which are not within the model database boundaries. Also, due to its static nature, the impact of the changing conditions within the mill on the power draw cannot be determined using such models. Despite advances in computing power, discrete element method (DEM) modelling of large mills with many thousands of particles could be a time consuming task. The speed of computation is determined principally by two parameters: number of particles involved and material properties. The computational time step is determined by the size of the smallest particle present in the model and material properties (stiffness). In the case of small particles, the computational time step will be short, whilst in the case of large particles; the computation time step will be larger. Hence, from the point of view of time required for modelling (which usually corresponds to time required for 3-4 mill revolutions), it will be advantageous that the smallest particles in the model are not unnecessarily too small. The objective of this work is to compare the net power draw of the mill whose charge is characterised by different size distributions, while preserving the constant mass of the charge and mill speed. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population-based continuous optimization, probabilistic modelling and mean shift

Evolutionary algorithms perform optimization using a population of sample solution points. An interesting development has been to view population-based optimization as the process of evolving an explicit, probabilistic model of the search space. This paper investigates a formal basis for continuous, population-based optimization in terms of a stochastic gradient descent on the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the model probability density and the objective function, represented as an unknown density of assumed form. This leads to an update rule that is related and compared with previous theoretical work, a continuous version of the population-based incremental learning algorithm, and the generalized mean shift clustering framework. Experimental results are presented that demonstrate the dynamics of the new algorithm on a set of simple test problems.

Modelling the structure of latexin-carboxypeptidase A complex based on chemical cross-linking and molecular docking

We have determined the three-dimensional structure of the protein complex between latexin and carboxypeptidase A using a combination of chemical cross-linking, mass spectrometry and molecular docking. The locations of three intermolecular cross-links were identified using mass spectrometry and these constraints were used in combination with a speed-optimised docking algorithm allowing us to evaluate more than 3 x 10(11) possible conformations. While cross-links represent only limited structural constraints, the combination of only three experimental cross-links with very basic molecular docking was sufficient to determine the complex structure. The crystal structure of the complex between latexin and carboxypeptidase A4 determined recently allowed us to assess the success of this structure determination approach. Our structure was shown to be within 4 angstrom r.m.s. deviation of C alpha atoms of the crystal structure. The study demonstrates that cross-linking in combination with mass spectrometry can lead to efficient and accurate structural modelling of protein complexes.

A GIS Based Assessment of Land Suitable for Growing Hoop Pine in the Atherton, Eacham and Herberton Shires of North Queensland

The area of private land suitable and available for growing hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii) on the Atherton Tablelands in North Queensland was modelled using a geographic information system (GIS). In Atherton, Eacham and Herberton shires, approximately 64,700 ha of privately owned land were identified as having a mean annual rainfall and soil type similar to Forestry Plantations Queensland (FPQ) hoop pine growth plots with an approximate growth rate of 20 m3 per annum. Land with slope of over 25° and land covered with native vegetation were excluded in the estimation. If land which is currently used for high-value agriculture is also excluded, the net area of land potentially suitable and available for expansion of hoop pine plantations is approximately 22,900 ha. Expert silvicultural advice emphasized the role of site preparation and weed control in affecting the long-term growth rate of hoop pine. Hence, sites with less than optimal fertility and rainfall may be considered as being potentially suitable for growing hoop pine at a lower growth rate. The datasets had been prepared at various scales and differing precision for their description of land attributes. Therefore, the results of this investigation have limited applicability for planning at the individual farm level but are useful at the regional level to target areas for plantation expansion.

Modelling the large deformations in stratified media - the Cosserat continuum approach

Methods employing continuum approximation in describing the deformation of layered materials possess a clear advantage over explicit models, However, the conventional implicit models based on the theory of anisotropic continua suffers from certain difficulties associated with interface slip and internal instabilities. These difficulties can be remedied by considering the bending stiffness of the layers. This implies the introduction of moment (couple) stresses and internal rotations, which leads to a Cosserat-type theory. In the present model, the behaviour of the layered material is assumed to be linearly elastic; the interfaces are assumed to be elastic perfectly plastic. Conditions of slip or no slip at the interfaces are detected by a Coulomb criterion with tension cut off at zero normal stress. The theory is valid for large deformation analysis. The model is incorporated into the finite element program AFENA and validated against analytical solutions of elementary buckling problems in layered medium. A problem associated with buckling of the roof and the floor of a rectangular excavation in jointed rock mass under high horizontal in situ stresses is considered as the main application of the theory. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

BeachWin: modelling groundwater effects on swash sediment transport and beach profile changes

Field and laboratory observations have shown that a relatively low beach groundwater table enhances beach accretion. These observations have led to the beach dewatering technique (artificially lowering the beach water table) for combating beach erosion. Here we present a process-based numerical model that simulates the interacting wave motion on the beach. coastal groundwater flow, swash sediment transport and beach profile changes. Results of model simulations demonstrate that the model replicates accretionary effects of a low beach water table on beach profile changes and has the potential to become a tool for assessing the effectiveness of beach dewatering systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.