An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 1. Methodology for residual generation

For dynamic simulations to be credible, verification of the computer code must be an integral part of the modelling process. This two-part paper describes a novel approach to verification through program testing and debugging. In Part 1, a methodology is presented for detecting and isolating coding errors using back-to-back testing. Residuals are generated by comparing the output of two independent implementations, in response to identical inputs. The key feature of the methodology is that a specially modified observer is created using one of the implementations, so as to impose an error-dependent structure on these residuals. Each error can be associated with a fixed and known subspace, permitting errors to be isolated to specific equations in the code. It is shown that the geometric properties extend to multiple errors in either one of the two implementations. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Designing supramolecular structures from models of cyclic peptide scaffolds with heterocyclic constraints

Cyclic peptides containing oxazole and thiazole heterocycles have been examined for their capacity to be used as scaffolds in larger, more complex, protein-like structures. Both the macrocyclic scaffolds and the supramolecular structures derived therefrom have been visualised by molecular modelling techniques. These molecules are too symmetrical to examine structurally by NMR spectroscopy. The cyclic hexapeptide ([Aaa-Thz](3), [Aaa-Oxz](3)) and cyclic octapeptide ([Aaa-Thz](4), [Aaa-Oxz](4)) analogues are composed of dipeptide surrogates (Aaa: amino acid, Thz: thiazole, Oxz: oxazole) derived from intramolecular condensation of cysteine or serine/threonine side chains in dipeptides like Aaa-Cys, Aaa-Ser and Aaa-Thr. The five-membered heterocyclic rings, like thiazole, oxazole and reduced analogues like thiazoline, thiazolidine and oxazoline have profound influences on the structures and bioactivities of cyclic peptides derived therefrom. This work suggests that such constrained cyclic peptides can be used as scaffolds to create a range of novel protein-like supramolecular structures (e.g. cylinders, troughs, cones, multi-loop structures, helix bundles) that are comparable in size, shape and composition to bioactive surfaces of proteins. They may therefore represent interesting starting points for the design of novel artificial proteins and artificial enzymes. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Forecasting with serially correlated regression models

In this article we investigate the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of predictors of regression models with autocorrelated errors. We prove new theorems associated with the predictive efficiency of generalized least squares (GLS) and incorrectly structured GLS predictors. We also establish the form associated with their predictive mean squared errors as well as the magnitude of these errors relative to each other and to those generated from the ordinary least squares (OLS) predictor. A large simulation study is used to evaluate the finite-sample performance of forecasts generated from models using different corrections for the serial correlation.

The specification of vector autoregressive moving average models

In this paper we propose a new identification method based on the residual white noise autoregressive criterion (Pukkila et al. , 1990) to select the order of VARMA structures. Results from extensive simulation experiments based on different model structures with varying number of observations and number of component series are used to demonstrate the performance of this new procedure. We also use economic and business data to compare the model structures selected by this order selection method with those identified in other published studies.

Effects of potential models on the adsorption of ethane and ethylene on graphitized thermal carbon black. Study of two-dimensional critical temperature and isosteric heat versus loading

Adsorption of ethylene and ethane on graphitized thermal carbon black and in slit pores whose walls are composed of graphene layers is studied in detail to investigate the packing efficiency, the two-dimensional critical temperature, and the variation of the isosteric heat of adsorption with loading and temperature. Here we used a Monte Carlo simulation method with a grand canonical Monte Carlo ensemble. A number of two-center Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential models are investigated to study the impact of the choice of potential models in the description of adsorption behavior. We chose two 2C-LJ potential models in our investigation of the (i) UA-TraPPE-LJ model of Martin and Siepmann (J. Phys. Chem. B 1998,102, 25692577) for ethane and Wick et al. (J. Phys. Chem. B 2000,104, 8008-8016) for ethylene and (ii) AUA4-LJ model of Ungerer et al. (J. Chem. Phys. 2000,112, 5499-5510) for ethane and Bourasseau et al. (J. Chem. Phys. 2003, 118, 3020-3034) for ethylene. These models are used to study the adsorption of ethane and ethylene on graphitized thermal carbon black. It is found that the solid-fluid binary interaction parameter is a function of adsorbate and temperature, and the adsorption isotherms and heat of adsorption are well described by both the UA-TraPPE and AUA models, although the UA-TraPPE model performs slightly better. However, the local distributions predicted by these two models are slightly different. These two models are used to explore the two-dimensional condensation for the graphitized thermal carbon black, and these values are 110 K for ethylene and 120 K for ethane.

PVT behaviour of fluids with potential models optimised for phase equilibria

NPT and NVT Monte Carlo simulations are applied to models for methane and water to predict the PVT behaviour of these fluids over a wide range of temperatures and pressures. The potential models examined in this paper have previously been presented in the literature with their specific parameters optimised to fit phase coexistence data. The exponential-6 potential for methane gives generally good prediction of PVT behaviour over the full range of temperature and pressures studied with the only significant deviation from experimental data seen at high temperatures and pressures. The NSPCE water model shows very poor prediction of PVT behaviour, particularly at dense conditions. To improve this. the charge separation in the NSPCE model is varied with density. Improvements for vapour and liquid phase PVT predictions are achieved with this variation. No improvement was found in the prediction of the oxygen-oxygen radial distribution by varying charge separation under dense phase conditions. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adsorption of ethylene on graphitized thermal carbon black and in slit pores: A computer simulation study

In this paper, we studied vapor-liquid equilibria (VLE) and adsorption of ethylene on graphitized thermal carbon black and in slit pores whose walls are composed of graphene layers. Simple models of a one-center Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential and a two-center united atom (UA)-LJ potential are investigated to study the impact of the choice of potential models in the description of VLE and adsorption behavior. Here, we used a Monte Carlo simulation method with grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) and Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo ensembles. The one-center potential model cannot describe adequately the VLE over the practical range of temperature from the triple point to the critical point. On the other hand, the two-center potential model (Wick et al. J. Phys. Chem. B 2000, 104, 8008-8016) performs well in the description of VLE (saturated vapor and liquid densities and vapor pressure) over the wide range of temperature. This UA-LJ model is then used in the study of adsorption of ethylene on graphitized thermal carbon black and in slit pores. Agreement between the GCMC simulation results and the experimental data on graphitized thermal carbon black for moderate temperatures is excellent, demonstrating that the potential of the GCMC method and the proper choice of potential model are essential to investigate adsorption. For slit pores of various sizes, we have found that the behavior of ethylene exhibits a number of features that are not manifested in the study of spherical LJ particles. In particular, the singlet density distribution versus distance across the pore and the angle between the molecular axis and the z direction provide rich information about the way molecules arrange themselves when the pore width is varied. Such an arrangement has been found to be very sensitive to the pore width.

Effects of potential models in the vapor-liquid equilibria and adsorption of simple gases on graphitized thermal carbon black

In this paper, we investigate the effects of various potential models in the description of vapor–liquid equilibria (VLE) and adsorption of simple gases on highly graphitized thermal carbon black. It is found that some potential models proposed in the literature are not suitable for the description of VLE (saturated gas and liquid densities and the vapor pressure with temperature). Simple gases, such as neon, argon, krypton, xenon, nitrogen, and methane are studied in this paper. To describe the isotherms on graphitized thermal carbon black correctly, the surface mediation damping factor introduced in our recent publication should be used to calculate correctly the fluid–fluid interaction energy between particles close to the surface. It is found that the damping constant for the noble gases family is linearly dependent on the polarizability, suggesting that the electric field of the graphite surface has a direct induction effect on the induced dipole of these molecules. As a result of this polarization by the graphite surface, the fluid–fluid interaction energy is reduced whenever two particles are near the surface. In the case of methane, we found that the damping constant is less than that of a noble gas having the similar polarizability, while in the case of nitrogen the damping factor is much greater and this could most likely be due to the quadrupolar nature of nitrogen.

Application of mixture models to detect differentially expressed genes

An important and common problem in microarray experiments is the detection of genes that are differentially expressed in a given number of classes. As this problem concerns the selection of significant genes from a large pool of candidate genes, it needs to be carried out within the framework of multiple hypothesis testing. In this paper, we focus on the use of mixture models to handle the multiplicity issue. With this approach, a measure of the local FDR (false discovery rate) is provided for each gene. An attractive feature of the mixture model approach is that it provides a framework for the estimation of the prior probability that a gene is not differentially expressed, and this probability can subsequently be used in forming a decision rule. The rule can also be formed to take the false negative rate into account. We apply this approach to a well-known publicly available data set on breast cancer, and discuss our findings with reference to other approaches.

Selecting optimal instantiations of data models - Theory and validation of an ex ante approach

The schema of an information system can significantly impact the ability of end users to efficiently and effectively retrieve the information they need. Obtaining quickly the appropriate data increases the likelihood that an organization will make good decisions and respond adeptly to challenges. This research presents and validates a methodology for evaluating, ex ante, the relative desirability of alternative instantiations of a model of data. In contrast to prior research, each instantiation is based on a different formal theory. This research theorizes that the instantiation that yields the lowest weighted average query complexity for a representative sample of information requests is the most desirable instantiation for end-user queries. The theory was validated by an experiment that compared end-user performance using an instantiation of a data structure based on the relational model of data with performance using the corresponding instantiation of the data structure based on the object-relational model of data. Complexity was measured using three different Halstead metrics: program length, difficulty, and effort. For a representative sample of queries, the average complexity using each instantiation was calculated. As theorized, end users querying the instantiation with the lower average complexity made fewer semantic errors, i.e., were more effective at composing queries. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The development of retinotectal maps: A review of models based on molecular gradients

Information about the world is often represented in the brain in the form of topographic maps. A paradigm example is the topographic representation of the visual world in the optic tectum/superior colliculus. This map initially forms during neural development using activity-independent molecular cues, most notably some type of chemospecific matching between molecular gradients in the retina and corresponding gradients in the tectum/superior colliculus. Exactly how this process might work has been studied both experimentally and theoretically for several decades. This review discusses the experimental data briefly, and then in more detail the theoretical models proposed. The principal conclusions are that (1) theoretical models have helped clarify several important ideas in the field, (2) earlier models were often more sophisticated than more recent models, and (3) substantial revisions to current modelling approaches are probably required to account for more than isolated subsets of the experimental data.

Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

The effects of energy sites on adsorption of Lennard–Jones fluids and phase transition in carbon slit pore of finite length a computer simulation study

A Monte Carlo simulation method is Used 10 study the effects of adsorption strength and topology of sites on adsorption of simple Lennard-Jones fluids in a carbon slit pore of finite length. Argon is used as a model adsorbate, while the adsorbent is modeled as a finite carbon slit pore whose two walls composed of three graphene layers with carbon atoms arranged in a hexagonal pattern. Impurities having well depth of interaction greater than that of carbon atom are assumed to be grafted onto the surface. Different topologies of the impurities; corner, centre, shelf and random topologies are studied. Adsorption isotherms of argon at 87.3 K are obtained for pore having widths of 1, 1.5 and 3 11111 using a Grand Canonical Monte Carlo simulation (GCMC). These results are compared with isotherms obtained for infinite pores. It is shown that the Surface heterogeneity affects significantly the overall adsorption isotherm, particularly the phase transition. Basically it shifts the onset of adsorption to lower pressure and the adsorption isotherms for these four impurity models are generally greater than that for finite pore. The positions of impurities on solid Surface also affect the shape of the adsorption isotherm and the phase transition. We have found that the impurities allocated at the centre of pore walls provide the greatest isotherm at low pressures. However when the pressure increases the impurities allocated along the edges of the graphene layers show the most significant effect on the adsorption isotherm. We have investigated the effect of surface heterogeneity on adsorption hysteresis loops of three models of impurity topology, it shows that the adsorption branches of these isotherms are different, while the desorption branches are quite close to each other. This suggests that the desorption branch is either the thermodynamic equilibrium branch or closer to it than the adsorption branch. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using epidemiological models to estimate the health effects of diet behaviour change: the example of tailored fruit and vegetable promotion

Objective: To explore the use of epidemiological modelling for the estimation of health effects of behaviour change interventions, using the example of computer-tailored nutrition education aimed at fruit and vegetable consumption in The Netherlands. Design: The effects of the intervention on changes in consumption were obtained from an earlier evaluation study. The effect on health outcomes was estimated using an epidemiological multi-state life table model. input data for the model consisted of relative risk estimates for cardiovascular disease and cancers, data on disease occurrence and mortality, and survey data on the consumption of fruits and vegetables. Results: if the computer-tailored nutrition education reached the entire adult population and the effects were sustained, it could result in a mortality decrease of 0.4 to 0.7% and save 72 to 115 life-years per 100000 persons aged 25 years or older. Healthy life expectancy is estimated to increase by 32.7 days for men and 25.3 days for women. The true effect is likely to lie between this theoretical maximum and zero effect, depending mostly on durability of behaviour change and reach of the intervention. Conclusion: Epidemiological models can be used to estimate the health impact of health promotion interventions.