On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments

Subsequent to the influential paper of [Chan, K.C., Karolyi, G.A., Longstaff, F.A., Sanders, A.B., 1992. An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rate. Journal of Finance 47, 1209-1227], the generalised method of moments (GMM) has been a popular technique for estimation and inference relating to continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate. GMM has been widely employed to estimate model parameters and to assess the goodness-of-fit of competing short-rate specifications. The current paper conducts a series of simulation experiments to document the bias and precision of GMM estimates of short-rate parameters, as well as the size and power of [Hansen, L.P., 1982. Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, 1029-1054], J-test of over-identifying restrictions. While the J-test appears to have appropriate size and good power in sample sizes commonly encountered in the short-rate literature, GMM estimates of the speed of mean reversion are shown to be severely biased. Consequently, it is dangerous to draw strong conclusions about the strength of mean reversion using GMM. In contrast, the parameter capturing the levels effect, which is important in differentiating between competing short-rate specifications, is estimated with little bias. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Stimulating dormancy release and emergence of annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum) seeds using short-term hydrated storage in darkness

Experiments were performed to determine whether the dormancy release effect of hydrated storage in darkness (dark-stratification) is common amongst annual ryegrass populations and has the potential to occur under field conditions. Dormant seeds from all populations tested (22) became sensitive to light during dark-stratification, enabling them to germinate when subsequently exposed to light. Under controlled temperature (25/15degreesC), light (12-h photoperiod), and hydration (solidified agar-water) conditions, more seeds germinated by 28 days if the first 14 days were in darkness followed by exposure to light for 12 h per day than if they were exposed to light throughout or darkness throughout. Constraint over the conditions imposed during dark-stratification and germination was gradually reduced to investigate whether the dormancy release effect was diminished. Dark-stratification was effective in promoting germination when performed under natural diurnal temperatures, and burial in moist soil provided suitable conditions for dark-stratification to occur. The surface of moist soil, with natural diurnal temperatures and sunlight, was suitable for germination of dark-stratified seeds. Dark-stratification is a quick and effective means to enhance the sensitivity of dormant annual ryegrass seeds to light, enabling the majority of the population to germinate. However, large quantities of light are required to promote germination of dark-stratified seeds, so buried seeds must be moved to the soil surface to allow exposure to adequate light for germination.

Short-term and long-term cardiovascular actions of different doses of perindopril in the rabbit

Short-term (one week) and chronic (six week) cardiovascular effects of orally administered perindopril were examined in the rabbit to demonstrate if short-term results can predict chronic outcomes. In short-term treatment, five doses of perindopril were examined in random order separated by a one week recovery period in each of six rabbits. Two doses of perindopril which resulted in a moderate hypotensive effect (-14 mmHg) and no hypotensive effect, respectively, were then selected for long-term treatment. Each rabbit in the short-term study received perindopril in doses of 0.01, 0.06, 0.32, 1.8 and 10 mg kg(-1) day(-1) for a week at a time. Rabbits on long-term treatment received either 0.3 or 0.01 mg kg(-1) day(-1) perindopril for six weeks. All rabbits had their mean arterial blood pressure (MAP) and heart rate recorded throughout treatment. Plasma angiotensin I (AngI), perindoprilat, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibition were also assayed. Perindopril treatment for one week produced a dose-dependent hypotensive effect with the threshold dose, 0.06 mg kg(-1) day(-1), producing a 6.5+/-1.8 mmHg fall in MAP. The highest dose (10.0 mg kg(-1) day(-1)) produced a large fall in blood pressure of -29.6+/-4.2 mmHg. The 0.01 and 0.06 mg kg(-1) day(-1) doses of perindopril produced an average 2.65 fold increase in plasma AngI levels compared to the initial control. The three higher doses (0.32-10.0 mg kg(-1) day(-1)) of perindopril produced an equivalent 5.7 fold increase in plasma AngI levels compared to the initial controls. However, over six weeks 0.01 mg kg(-1) day(-1) perindopril induced a similar decrease in MAP as the 30 fold higher dose (-9.3 mmHg compared to -11.7 mmHg,). This was in spite of a 3 fold difference in plasma perindoprilat concentrations between the high and low dose perindopril groups. Plasma ACE inhibition was >80% with both doses of perindopril. The results indicate that while perindopril decreases MAP in a dose-dependent manner in short-term (one week) periods, over longer treatment times (six weeks) low concentrations of perindopril, non-hypotensive with shortterm treatment, may be as anti-hypertensive as considerably higher doses. (C) 1996 The Italian Pharmacological Society.

Effects of short- and long-term exposure to c-AMP and c-GMP on the noradrenaline transporter

The effects of short- and long-term exposure of cells to elevated cyclic adenosine monophosphate (c-AMP), using dibutyryl-c-AMP, 8-bromo-c-AMP, cholera toxin or forskolin, or cyclic guanosine monophosphate (c-GMP), using dibutyryl-c-GMP or 8-bromo-c-GMP, on the activity and expression of the noradrenaline transporter (NAT) were examined. Short- or long-term c-GMP elevation had no effects on H-3-noradrenaline uptake by rat PC12 phaeochromocytoma cells or human SK-N-SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells. Short-term c-AMP elevation (for 17 min experiment duration) caused a decrease in H-3-noradrenaline uptake by PC12 cells, but had no effects on SK-N-SH-SY5Y cells or COS-7 cells transfected with human or rat NAT cDNA. c-AMP did not affect H-3-nisoxetine binding to PC12 cells. Long-term (24 h) exposure to elevated c-AMP levels caused a decrease in H-3-noradrenaline uptake and NAT mRNA in PC12 cells, but had no effects on SK-N-SH-SY5Y cells and caused a small increase in H-3-noradrenaline uptake in COS-7 cells heterologously expressing rat or human NAT. Hence, c-AMP, but not c-GMP, causes a cell type-dependent reduction in NAT activity after short-term exposure and a reduction in NAT expression after long-term exposure. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short-term effects of carbon source on the competition of polyphosphate accumulating organisms and glycogen accumulating organisms

The effectiveness of enhanced biological phosphorus removal (ESPR) systems is directly affected by the competition of polyphosphate accumulating organisms (PAOs) and glycogen accumulating organisms (GAOs). This study investigated the short-term effects of carbon source on PAO and GAO performance. The tests were designed to clearly determine the impact of volatile fatty acid (VFA) composition on the performance of two types of biomass, one enriched for PAOs and the other for GAOs. The two populations were enriched in separate reactors using identical operating conditions and very similar influent compositions with acetate as the sole carbon source. The only difference was that a very tow level of phosphorus was present in the influent to the GAO reactor. The abundance of PAOs and GAOs was quantified using fluorescence in-situ hybridisation. The results clearly show that there are some very distinctive differences between PAOs and GAOs in their ability to utilise different carbon substrates. While both are able to take up acetate rapidly and completely, the GAOs are far slower at consuming propionate than the PAOs during short-term substrate changes. This provides a potentially highly valuable avenue to influence the competition between PAOs and GAOs. Other VFAs studied seem to be less usable in the short term by both PAOs and GAOs; as indicated by their much lower uptake rates.

Short-term peaks in glucose promote renal fibrogenesis independently of total glucose exposure

Postprandial hyperglycemia is implicated as a risk factor predisposing to vascular complications. This study was designed to assess recurrent short-term increases in glucose on markers of renal fibrogenesis. Human renal cortical fibroblasts were exposed to fluctuating short-term (2 h) increases to 15 mM D-glucose, three times a day over 72 h, on a background of 5 mM D-glucose. To determine whether observed changes were due to fluctuating osmolality, identical experiments were undertaken with cells exposed to L-glucose. Parallel experiments were performed in cells exposed to 5 mM D-glucose and constant exposure to either 15 or 7.5 mM D-glucose. Fluctuating D-glucose increased extracellular matrix, as measured by proline incorporation ( P < 0.05), collagen IV ( P < 0.005), and fibronectin production ( P < 0.001), in association with increased tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) ( P < 0.05). Sustained exposure to 15 mM D-glucose increased fibronectin ( P < 0.001), in association with increased MMP-2 ( P = 0.01) and MMP-9 activity ( P < 0.05), suggestive of a protective effect on collagen matrix accumulation. Transforming growth factor-beta(1) (TGF-beta(1)) mRNA was increased after short-term (90 min) exposure to 15 mM glucose (P < 0.05) and after 24-h exposure to 7.5 mM ? ( P < 0.05). Normalization of TGF-beta(1) secretion occurred within 48 h of constant exposure to an elevated glucose. Fluctuating L-glucose also induced TGF-beta(1) mRNA and a profibrotic profile, however, to a lesser extent than observed with exposure to fluctuating D-glucose. The results suggest that exposure to fluctuating glucose concentrations increases renal interstitial fibrosis compared with stable elevations in D-glucose. The effects are, in part, due to the inherent osmotic changes.

Improved physical performance in older adults undertaking a short-term programme of high-velocity resistance training

Background: The age-related loss of muscle power in older adults is greater than that of muscle strength and is associated with a decline in physical performance. Objective: To investigate the effects of a short-term high-velocity varied resistance training programme on physical performance in healthy community-dwelling adults aged 60-80 years. Methods: Subjects undertook exercise (EX; n = 15) or maintained customary activity (controls, CON; n = 10) for 8 weeks. The EX group trained 2 days/week using machine weights for three sets of eight repetitions at 35, 55, and 75% of their one-repetition maximum (the maximal weight that an individual can lift once with acceptable form) for seven upper- and lower-body exercises using explosive concentric movements. Results: Fourteen EX and 10 CON subjects completed the study. Dynamic muscle strength significantly increased (p = 0.001) in the EX group for all exercises (from 21.4 +/- 9.6 to 82.0 +/- 59.2%, mean +/- SD) following training, as did knee extension power (p < 0.01). Significant improvement occurred for the EX group in the floor rise to standing (10.4 &PLUSMN; 11.5%, p = 0.004), usual 6-metre walk (6.6 &PLUSMN; 8.2%, p = 0.010), repeated chair rise (10.4 &PLUSMN; 15.6%, p = 0.013), and lift and reach (25.6 &PLUSMN; 12.1%, p = 0.002) performance tasks but not in the CON group. Conclusions: Progressive resistance training that incorporates rapid rate-of-force development movements may be safely undertaken in healthy older adults and results in significant gains in muscle strength, muscle power, and physical performance. Such improvements could prolong functional independence and improve the quality of life. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Short-Term Perturbations and Tourism Effects: The case of SARS in China

In China, protected areas are one of the main destinations attracting tourists and homeland for many poor people living in and around them. Based on a case study, the paper focuses on correlation between tourism and poverty alleviation by tracing the cash flows to the local poor. It also reviews the social and environmental effects of tourism on local area. The case study is conducted in a group of protected areas in Qinling Mountain Region in Shaanxi, a western province in China. Qinling Mountain is one of the most important distribution zones for Giant Panda and some other endangered wildlife such as Golden Takin and Golden Monkey. The tourism development in the region is happening. Research indicates that there is 29.33%, of tourist expenditure is going to local households, directly or indirectly. Tourist spends US$7.11 (13.67%) in food and beverage, and US$6.39 (12.23%) in accommodation service, which are the greatest contributors to local households in terms of tourism benefits. Local households can get US$8.15 from food/beverage and accommodation sectors, taking 56.64% of total income from tourism. Generally, tourism development benefits all stakeholders. However, poor people get less benefit. The paper analyses the barriers for the poor to be involved in tourism development, and discusses the government roles, major issues in implementation of Sustainable Tourism-Eliminating Poverty (ST-EP) model.

Reduced between-hospital variation in short term survival after acute myocardial infarction: the result of improved cardiac care?

Objectives: To re-examine interhospital variation in 30 day survival after acute myocardial infarction ( AMI) 10 years on to see whether the appointment of new cardiologists and their involvement in emergency care has improved outcome after AMI. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Acute hospitals in Scotland. Participants: 61 484 patients with a first AMI over two time periods: 1988 - 1991; and 1998 - 2001. Main outcome measures: 30 day survival. Results: Between 1988 and 1991, median 30 day survival was 79.2% ( interhospital range 72.1 - 85.1%). The difference between highest and lowest was 13.0 percentage points ( age and sex adjusted, 12.1 percentage points). Between 1998 and 2001, median survival rose to 81.6% ( and range decreased to 78.0 - 85.6%) with a difference of 7.6 ( adjusted 8.8) percentage points. Admission hospital was an independent predictor of outcome at 30 days during the two time periods ( p< 0.001). Over the period 1988 - 1991, the odds ratio for death ranged, between hospitals, from 0.71 ( 95% confidence interval ( CI) 0.58 to 0.88) to 1.50 ( 95% CI 1.19 to 1.89) and for the period 1998 - 2001 from 0.82 ( 95% CI 0.60 to 1.13) to 1.46 ( 95% CI 1.07 to 1.99). The adjusted risk of death was significantly higher than average in nine of 26 hospitals between 1988 and 1991 but in only two hospitals between 1998 and 2001. Conclusions: The average 30 day case fatality rate after admission with an AMI has fallen substantially over the past 10 years in Scotland. Between-hospital variation is also considerably less notable because of better survival in the previously poorly performing hospitals. This suggests that the greater involvement of cardiologists in the management of AMI has paid dividends.

Response of holosymbiont pigments from the scleractinian coral Montipora monasteriata to short-term heat stress

Heating the scleractinian coral, Montipora monasteriata (Forskal 1775) to 32 degrees C under < 650 mu mol quanta m(-2) s(-1) led to bleaching in the form of a reduction in Peridinin, xanthophyll pool, chlorophyll c(2) and chlorophyll a, but areal dinoflagellates densities did not decline. Associated with this bleaching, chlorophyll (Chl) allomerization and dinoflagellate xanthophyll cycling increased. Chl allomerization is believed to result from the interaction of Chl with singlet oxygen (O-1(2)) or other reactive oxygen species. Thermally induced increases in Chl allomerization are consistent with other studies that have demonstrated that thermal stress generates reactive oxygen species in symbiotic dinoflagellates. Xanthophyll cycling requires the establishment of a pH gradient across the thylakoid membrane. Our results indicate that, during the early stages of thermal stress, thylakoid membranes are intact. Different morphs of M. monasteriata responded differently to the heat stress applied: heavily pigmented coral hosts taken from a high-light environment showed significant reductions in green fluorescent protein (GFP)-like homologues, whereas nonhost pigmented high-light morphs experienced a significant reduction in water-soluble protein content. Paradoxically, the more shade acclimated cave morph were, based on Chl fluorescence data, less thermally stressed than either of the high-light morphs. These results Support the importance of coral pigments for the regulation of the light environment within the host tissue.

Short-term hyperthermic treatment of Penaeus monodon increases expression of heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) and reduces replication of gill associated virus (GAV)

Disease is the result of interactions amongst pathogens, the environment and host organisms. To investigate the effect of stress on Penaeus monodon, juvenile shrimp were given short term exposure to hypoxic, hyperthermic and osmotic stress twice over a 1-week period and estimates of total haemocyte count (THC), heat shock protein (HSP) 70 expression and load of gill associated virus (GAV) were determined at different time points. While no significant differences were observed in survival and THC between stressed and control shrimp (P>0.05), HSP 70 expression and GAV load changed significantly (P