A molecular phylogeny of the Australian skink genera Eulamprus, Gnypetoscincus and Nangura

Skinks from the genera Eulamprus, Gnypetoscincus and Nangura are a prominent component of the reptile fauna of the mesic forests of the east coast of Australia and have been the subject of numerous ecological studies. Highly conserved morphology and the retention of ancestral traits have limited our understanding of the relationships within and among these genera beyond an initial identification of species groups within Eulamprus. To address this deficit and to explore the relationships between Eulamprus and the monotypic genera Nangura and Gnypetoscincus, sections of two mitochondrial genes (ND4 and 16S rRNA) were sequenced and subjected to Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. This phylogenetic analysis supports recognition of the three species groups proposed for Eulamprus (murrayi, quoyii and tenuis) and indicates that this genus is paraphyletic, with Gnypetoscincus and Nangura being proximal to basal lineages of the tenuis group. To resolve these and broader problems of paraphyly, we suggest that each of the species groups from 'Eulamprus' should be recognised as a distinct genus. The phylogenetically and ecologically distinct water skinks of the quoyii group would be retained within Eulamprus and the diverse species of the tenuis group allocated to Concinnia. We suggest placing the monophyletic murrayi group, endemic to the rainforests of central eastern Australia, in a new genus ( yet to be formally described). The sequencing data also revealed the existence of a genetically divergent but morphologically cryptic lineage within E. murrayi and substantial diversity within E. quoyii. There is evidence for two major habitat shifts from rainforest towards drier habitats, one leading to the quoyii group and the second defining a clade of three species within the tenuis complex. These ecological transitions may represent adaptations to general drying across eastern Australia during the late Miocene - Pliocene. Each of the major areas of east coast tropical or subtropical rainforest contains multiple phylogenetically diverse endemic species, reflecting the long-term persistence and high conservation value of wet forest habitats in each area.

Speciation and phylogeography in Caridina indistincta, a complex of freshwater shrimps from Australian heathland streams

The Caridina indistincta complex is a group of closely related atyid shrimps that inhabit coastal freshwater streams throughout north-eastern Australia. Using mitochondrial DNA sequence data (cytochrome oxidase 1, CO1), we (1) inferred the timing of speciation in the C. indistincta group and (2) examined the intraspecific phylogeographic patterns within the group. Assuming a shrimp-specific rate of CO1 evolution, the level of sequence divergence among species suggests that speciation took place during the Miocene epoch. Within one widespread mainland species, phylogeographic patterns suggest strong geographic 'regionalisation' of mtDNA lineages that are most likely of Pleistocene origin. By contrast, another species comprises two highly divergent mtDNA lineages that occur in sympatry. We suggest that although Pleistocene sea-level regressions appear important in generating population-level phylogeographic patterns, these events were largely unimportant in the formation of species in this group.

Are Ichthyosporea animals or fungi? Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of elongation factor 1α of Ichthyophonus irregularis

Ichthyosporea is a recently recognized group of morphologically simple eukaryotes, many of which cause disease in aquatic organisms. Ribosomal RNA sequence analyses place Ichthyosporea near the divergence of the animal and fungal lineages, but do not allow resolution of its exact phylogenetic position. Some of the best evidence for a specific grouping of animals and fungi (Opisthokonta) has come from elongation factor 1alpha, not only phylogenetic analysis of sequences but also the presence or absence of short insertions and deletions. We sequenced the EF-1alpha gene from the ichthyosporean parasite Ichthyophonus irregularis and determined its phylogenetic position using neighbor-joining, parsimony and Bayesian methods. We also sequenced EF-1alpha genes from four chytrids to provide broader representation within fungi. Sequence analyses and the presence of a characteristic 12 amino acid insertion strongly indicate that I. irregularis is a member of Opisthokonta, but do not resolve whether I. irregularis is a specific relative of animals or of fungi. However, the EF-1alpha of I. irregularis exhibits a two amino acid deletion heretofore reported only among fungi. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Bayesian inferences on the recent island colonization history by the bird Zosterops lateralis lateralis

The founding of new populations by small numbers of colonists has been considered a potentially important mechanism promoting evolutionary change in island populations. Colonizing species, such as members of the avian species complex Zosterops lateralis, have been used to support this idea. A large amount of background information on recent colonization history is available for one Zosterops subspecies, Z. lateralis lateralis, providing the opportunity to reconstruct the population dynamics of its colonization sequence. We used a Bayesian approach to combine historical and demographic information available on Z. l. lateralis with genotypic data from six microsatellite loci, and a rejection algorithm to make simultaneous inferences on the demographic parameters describing the recent colonization history of this subspecies in four southwest Pacific islands. Demographic models assuming mutation–drift equilibrium or a large number of founders were better supported than models assuming founder events for three of four recently colonized island populations. Posterior distributions of demographic parameters supported (i) a large stable effective population size of several thousands individuals with point estimates around 4000–5000; (ii) a founder event of very low intensity with a large effective number of founders around 150–200 individuals for each island in three of four islands, suggesting the colonization of those islands by one flock of large size or several flocks of average size; and (iii) a founder event of higher intensity on Norfolk Island with an effective number of founders around 20 individuals, suggesting colonization by a single flock of moderate size. Our inferences on demographic parameters, especially those on the number of founders, were relatively insensitive to the precise choice of prior distributions for microsatellite mutation processes and demographic parameters, suggesting that our analysis provides a robust description of the recent colonization history of the subspecies.

Analysis of Melanoma Onset: Assessing Familial Aggregation by Using Estimating Equations and Fitting Variance Components via Bayesian Random Effects Models

We investigate whether relative contributions of genetic and shared environmental factors are associated with an increased risk in melanoma. Data from the Queensland Familial Melanoma Project comprising 15,907 subjects arising from 1912 families were analyzed to estimate the additive genetic, common and unique environmental contributions to variation in the age at onset of melanoma. Two complementary approaches for analyzing correlated time-to-onset family data were considered: the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method in which one can estimate relationship-specific dependence simultaneously with regression coefficients that describe the average population response to changing covariates; and a subject-specific Bayesian mixed model in which heterogeneity in regression parameters is explicitly modeled and the different components of variation may be estimated directly. The proportional hazards and Weibull models were utilized, as both produce natural frameworks for estimating relative risks while adjusting for simultaneous effects of other covariates. A simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for covariate imputation of missing data was used and the actual implementation of the Bayesian model was based on Gibbs sampling using the free ware package BUGS. In addition, we also used a Bayesian model to investigate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental effects on the expression of naevi and freckles, which are known risk factors for melanoma.

Single copy nuclear DNA markers characterized for comparative phylogeography in Australian wet tropics rainforest skinks

In order to investigate population history and demography in skinks endemic to the wet tropics of Australia, multiple nuclear DNA markers were sought. The utility of 72 primers (including 63 published intron-spanning 'CATS' primers) was tested.. Seven loci were characterized and shown to be single copy by single-strand conformation polymorphism analysis. Primers to five nuclear loci were developed, four with utility in skinks and three with utility in frogs. These observations extend the available information on intron-spanning primers for amphibians and reptiles.

A mitochondrial phylogeny of the rainforest skink genus Saproscincus, Wells and Wellington (1984)

The phylogenetic relationships and historical biogeography of 10 currently described rainforest skinks in the genus Saproscincus were investigated using mitochondrial protein-coding ND4 and ribosomal RNA 16S genes. A robust phylogeny is inferred using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian analysis, with all inter-specific nodes strongly supported when datasets are combined. The phylogeny supports the recognition of two major lineages (northern and southern), each of which comprises two divergent clades. Both northern and southern lineages have comparably divergent representatives in mid-east Queensland (MEQ), providing further molecular evidence for the importance of two major biogeographic breaks, the St. Lawrence gap and Burdekin gap separating MEQ from southern and northern counterparts respectively. Vicariance associated with the fragmentation and contraction of temperate rainforest during the mid-late Miocene epoch underpins the deep divergence between morphologically conservative lineages in at least three instances. In contrast, one species, Saproseincus oriarus, shows very low sequence divergence but distinct morphological and ecological differentiation from its allopatric sister clade within Saproseincus mustelinus. These results suggest that while vicariance has played a prominent role in diversification and historical biogeography of Saproscincus, divergent selection may also be important. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Phylogeny and biogeography of the freshwater crayfish Euastacus (Decapoda : Parastacidae) based on nuclear and mitochondrial DNA

Euastacus crayfish are endemic to freshwater ecosystems of the eastern coast of Australia. While recent evolutionary studies have focused on a few of these species, here we provide a comprehensive phylogenetic estimate of relationships among the species within the genus. We sequenced three mitochondrial gene regions (COI, 16S, and 12S) and one nuclear region (28S) from 40 species of the genus Euastacus, as well as one undescribed species. Using these data, we estimated the phylogenetic relationships within the genus using maximum-likelihood, parsimony, and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Using Bayes factors to test different model hypotheses, we found that the best phylogeny supports monophyletic groupings of all but two recognized species and suggests a widespread ancestor that diverged by vicariance. We also show that Eitastacus and Astacopsis are most likely monophyletic sister genera. We use the resulting phylogeny as a framework to test biogeographic hypotheses relating to the diversification of the genus. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian estimation of g-and-k distributions using MCMC

In this paper we investigate a Bayesian procedure for the estimation of a flexible generalised distribution, notably the MacGillivray adaptation of the g-and-κ distribution. This distribution, described through its inverse cdf or quantile function, generalises the standard normal through extra parameters which together describe skewness and kurtosis. The standard quantile-based methods for estimating the parameters of generalised distributions are often arbitrary and do not rely on computation of the likelihood. MCMC, however, provides a simulation-based alternative for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of these distributions or for deriving posterior estimates of the parameters through a Bayesian framework. In this paper we adopt the latter approach, The proposed methodology is illustrated through an application in which the parameter of interest is slightly skewed.

Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion

Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Phylogeography of an east Australian wet-forest bird, the satin bowerbird (Ptilonorhynchus violaceus), derived from mtDNA, and its relationship to morphology

Australian wet forests have undergone a contraction in range since the mid-Tertiary, resulting in a fragmented distribution along the east Australian coast incorporating several biogeographical barriers. Variation in mitochondrial DNA and morphology within the satin bowerbird was used to examine biogeographical structure throughout almost the entire geographical extent of these wet forest fragments. We used several genetic analysis techniques, nested clade and barrier analyses, that use patterns inherent in the data to describe the spatial structuring. We also examined the validity of the two previously described satin bowerbird subspecies that are separated by well-defined biogeographical barriers and tested existing hypotheses that propose divergence occurs within each subspecies across two other barriers, the Black Mountain corridor and the Hunter Valley. Our data showed that the two subspecies were genetically and morphologically divergent. The northern subspecies, found in the Wet Tropics region of Queensland, showed little divergence across the Black Mountain corridor, a barrier found to be significant in other Wet Tropics species. Biogeographical structure was found through southeastern Australia; three geographically isolated populations showed genetic differentiation, although minimal divergence was found across the proposed Hunter Valley barrier. A novel barrier was found separating inland and coastal populations in southern New South Wales. Little morphological divergence was observed within subspecies, bar a trend for birds to be larger in the more southerly parts of the species' range. The results from both novel and well-established genetic analyses were similar, providing greater confidence in the conclusions about spatial divergence and supporting the validity of these new techniques.

A Bayesian approach to imposing curvature on distance functions

The estimated parameters of output distance functions frequently violate the monotonicity, quasi-convexity and convexity constraints implied by economic theory, leading to estimated elasticities and shadow prices that are incorrectly signed, and ultimately to perverse conclusions concerning the effects of input and output changes on productivity growth and relative efficiency levels. We show how a Bayesian approach can be used to impose these constraints on the parameters of a translog output distance function. Implementing the approach involves the use of a Gibbs sampler with data augmentation. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is also used within the Gibbs to simulate observations from truncated pdfs. Our methods are developed for the case where panel data is available and technical inefficiency effects are assumed to be time-invariant. Two models-a fixed effects model and a random effects model-are developed and applied to panel data on 17 European railways. We observe significant changes in estimated elasticities and shadow price ratios when regularity restrictions are imposed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.