A typology of community opportunity and vulnerability in metropolitan Australia

A multivariate model using hierarchical clustering and discriminant analysis is used to identify clusters of community opportunity and community vulnerability across Australia's mega metropolitan regions, Variables used in the model measure aspects of structural economic change, occupational change, human capital, income, unemployment, family/household disadvantage, and housing stress. A nine-cluster solution is used to categorise communities across metropolitan space. Significant between-city variations in the incidence of these clusters of opportunity and vulnerability are apparent, suggesting the emergence of marked differentiation between Australia's mega metropolitan regions in their adjustments to changing economic and social conditions. JEL classification: C49, R11, R12.

Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.

Screening for vulnerability to abuse among older women: Women's health Australia study

The validity of a brief self-report screening measure for elder abuse was examined on a nationally representative sample of more than 12,000 older women it? the baseline survey of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. The screening instrument was a modification Of the Hwalek-Sengstock Elder Abuse Screening Test. Construct validity was examined using factor analysis and correlation with a wide range of sociodemographic, psychological. and health-related variables. Four factors, each of three items, were identified representing the following domains: Vulnerability, Dependence, Dejection, and Coercion. The Vulnerability and Coercion factors had the highest face validity for abuse and demonstrated moderate to good construct validity. The six items comprising these factors may provide a simple screening tool for elder abuse The identified correlates of abuse indicators have the potential to enhance policy development, screening, intervention, and carer support programs.

Confined-unconfined flow in a horizontal confined aquifer

Mixed confined and unconfined groundwater flow occurs in a bounded initially dry aquifer when the hydraulic head at the side boundary suddenly rises above the elevation of the aquifer's top boundary. The flow problem as modelled by the Boussinesq equation is non-trivial because of the involvement of two moving boundaries. The transformed equation (based on a similarity transformation) can, however, be dealt with more easily. Here, we present an approximate analytical solution for this flow problem. The approximate solution is compared with an 'exact' numerical solution and found to be a very accurate description for describing the mixed confined and unconfined flow in the confined aquifer. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Water table waves in an unconfined aquifer: Experiments and modeling

[1] Comprehensive measurements are presented of the piezometric head in an unconfined aquifer during steady, simple harmonic oscillations driven by a hydrostatic clear water reservoir through a vertical interface. The results are analyzed and used to test existing hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic, small-amplitude theories along with capillary fringe effects. As expected, the amplitude of the water table wave decays exponentially. However, the decay rates and phase lags indicate the influence of both vertical flow and capillary effects. The capillary effects are reconciled with observations of water table oscillations in a sand column with the same sand. The effects of vertical flows and the corresponding nonhydrostatic pressure are reasonably well described by small-amplitude theory for water table waves in finite depth aquifers. That includes the oscillation amplitudes being greater at the bottom than at the top and the phase lead of the bottom compared with the top. The main problems with respect to interpreting the measurements through existing theory relate to the complicated boundary condition at the interface between the driving head reservoir and the aquifer. That is, the small-amplitude, finite depth expansion solution, which matches a hydrostatic boundary condition between the bottom and the mean driving head level, is unrealistic with respect to the pressure variation above this level. Hence it cannot describe the finer details of the multiple mode behavior close to the driving head boundary. The mean water table height initially increases with distance from the forcing boundary but then decreases again, and its asymptotic value is considerably smaller than that previously predicted for finite depth aquifers without capillary effects. Just as the mean water table over-height is smaller than predicted by capillarity-free shallow aquifer models, so is the amplitude of the second harmonic. In fact, there is no indication of extra second harmonics ( in addition to that contained in the driving head) being generated at the interface or in the interior.

Response of the salt-freshwater interface in a coastal aquifer to a wave-induced groundwater pulse: field observations and modelling

Field observations on an unconfined coastal aquifer showed that a groundwater pulse, generated by it moderate (significant wave height, H-sig similar to 4.5 m) wave/storm event, induced significant oscillations in the salt-freshwater interface of the order of several metres in the horizontal direction. A dynamic sharp-interface model is developed to quantify the mechanism of these interface oscillations. The model uses the 50% seawater salinity contour as the location of the equivalent sharp-interface. The model was calibrated against the observed groundwater table fluctuations. It predicted reasonably well the interface oscillations with a slight over-prediction of the oscillation magnitude and a steepening of the interface. The neglect of mixing in the salt-freshwater mixing zone by the sharp-interface model is suggested as a possible contributor to the discrepancies between the model predictions and observations. In contrast with the significant wave effects, there was no observable response of the interface to diurnal or semidiurnal tides. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile. Biological Conservation, 122 2005: 9-21.

Areas of the landscape that are priorities for conservation should be those that are both vulnerable to threatening processes and that if lost or degraded, will result in conservation targets being compromised. While much attention is directed towards understanding the patterns of biodiversity, much less is given to determining the areas of the landscape most vulnerable to threats. We assessed the relative vulnerability of remaining areas of native forest to conversion to plantations in the ecologically significant temperate rainforest region of south central Chile. The area of the study region is 4.2 million ha and the extent of plantations is approximately 200000 ha. First, the spatial distribution of native forest conversion to plantations was determined. The variables related to the spatial distribution of this threatening process were identified through the development of a classification tree and the generation of a multivariate. spatially explicit, statistical model. The model of native forest conversion explained 43% of the deviance and the discrimination ability of the model was high. Predictions were made of where native forest conversion is likely to occur in the future. Due to patterns of climate, topography, soils and proximity to infrastructure and towns, remaining forest areas differ in their relative risk of being converted to plantations. Another factor that may increase the vulnerability of remaining native forest in a subset of the study region is the proposed construction of a highway. We found that 90% of the area of existing plantations within this region is within 2.5 km of roads. When the predictions of native forest conversion were recalculated accounting for the construction of this highway, it was found that: approximately 27000 ha of native forest had an increased probability of conversion. The areas of native forest identified to be vulnerable to conversion are outside of the existing reserve network. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All tights reserved.

Drying front in a sloping aquifer: Nonlinear effects

[1] The profiles for the water table height h(x, t) in a shallow sloping aquifer are reexamined with a solution of the nonlinear Boussinesq equation. We demonstrate that the previous anomaly first reported by Brutsaert [1994] that the point at which the water table h first becomes zero at x = L at time t = t(c) remains fixed at this point for all times t > t(c) is actually a result of the linearization of the Boussinesq equation and not, as previously suggested [Brutsaert, 1994; Verhoest and Troch, 2000], a result of the Dupuit assumption. Rather, by examination of the nonlinear Boussinesq equation the drying front, i.e., the point x(f) at which h is zero for times t greater than or equal to t(c), actually recedes downslope as physically expected. This points out that the linear Boussinesq equation should be used carefully when a zero depth is obtained as the concept of an average'' depth loses meaning at that time.

Experimental observations of watertable waves in an unconfined aquifer with a sloping boundary

Observations of horizontal and vertical variations in piezometric head in a homogeneous, laboratory aquifer are presented and discussed. The observed fluctuations are induced by a simple harmonic oscillation in the clear water reservoir acting across a sloping boundary. The data qualitatively supports existing theories in that higher harmonics are generated in the active forcing zone and that a significant increase in the inland, asymptotic watertable over height (relative to that found for the vertical boundary case) is observed. The observed overheight is shown to be accurately reproduced by existing small-amplitude perturbation theory. Detailed measurements in the vicinity of the sloping boundary reveal that the signal of generated higher harmonics is strongest near the sand surface and that vertical flows are significant in this region. The aquifer is of finite-depth and is influenced by capillary effects, the experimental data therefore exposes limitations of theories which are based on the assumption of a shallow aquifer free of capillary effects. The dispersive properties of the measured pressure wave in the aquifer are comparable to those found from field observations and likewise do not agree with those predicted by the capillary free, shallow aquifer theory. Although some improvement is obtained, discrepancies between the data and theory persist even when a finite-depth aquifer and capillary effects are considered in the theoretical model. Further sand column experiments eliminate a truncated capillary fringe as a possible contributor to these discrepancies. However, the neglect of horizontal flows in the fringe may have caused the discrepancies. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning

Conservation planning is the process of locating and designing conservation areas to promote the persistence of biodiversity in situ. To do this, conservation areas must be able to mitigate at least some of the proximate threats to biodiversity. Information on threatening processes and the relative vulnerability of areas and natural features to these processes is therefore crucial for effective conservation planning. However, measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning have been problematic. We develop a conceptual framework of the role of vulnerability assessments in conservation planning and propose a definition of vulnerability that incorporates three dimensions: exposure, intensity, and impact. We review and categorize methods for assessing the vulnerability of areas and the features they contain and identify the relative strengths and weaknesses of each broad approach, Our review highlights the need for further development and evaluation of approaches to assess vulnerability and for comparisons of their relative effectiveness.

Urban vulnerability in Sydney: Policy and institutional ambiguities in bushfire protection

Despite the inevitability of the bushfires hazard across the Sydney region, a mismatch exists between reactive technological fixes and proactive social programs which have far-reaching vulnerability and governance consequences. This paper questions the adequacy of current policy and action, revealing contradictions and tensions that expose Sydney's vulnerability and have implications for other Australian cities.