Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of spatial analysis techniques to adjust for fertility trends and identify interplot competition in early stage sugarcane selection trials

Most sugarcane breeding programs in Australia use large unreplicated trials to evaluate clones in the early stages of selection. Commercial varieties that are replicated provide a method of local control of soil fertility. Although such methods may be useful in detecting broad trends in the field, variation often occurs on a much smaller scale. Methods such as spatial analysis adjust a plot for variability by using information from immediate neighbours. These techniques are routinely used to analyse cereal data in Australia and have resulted in increased accuracy and precision in the estimates of variety effects. In this paper, spatial analyses in which the variability is decomposed into local, natural, and extraneous components are applied to early selection trials in sugarcane. Interplot competition in cane yield and trend in sugar content were substantial in many of the trials and there were often large differences in the selections between the spatial and current method used by the Bureau of Sugar Experiment Stations. A joint modelling approach for tonnes sugar per hectare in response to fertility trends and interplot competition is recommended.

The role of putative phosphorylation sites in the targeting and shuttling of the aquaporin-2 water channel

In renal collecting ducts, a vasopressin-induced cAMP increase results in the phosphorylation of aquaporin-2 (AQP2) water channels at Ser-256 and its redistribution from intracellular vesicles to the apical membrane. Hormones that activate protein kinase C (PKC) proteins counteract this process. To determine the role of the putative kinase sites in the trafficking and hormonal regulation of human AQP2, three putative casein kinase II (Ser-148, Ser-229, Thr-244), one PKC (Ser-231), and one protein kinase A (Ser-256) site were altered to mimic a constitutively non-phosphorylated/phosphorylated state and were expressed in Madin-Darby canine kidney cells. Except for Ser-256 mutants, seven correctly folded AQP2 kinase mutants trafficked as wild-type AQP2 to the apical membrane via forskolin-sensitive intracellular vesicles. With or without forskolin, AQP2-Ser-256A was localized in intracellular vesicles, whereas AQP2-S256D was localized in the apical membrane. Phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate-induced PKC activation following forskolin treatment resulted in vesicular distribution of all AQP2 kinase mutants, while all were still phosphorylated at Ser-256. Our data indicate that in collecting duct cells, AQP2 trafficking to vasopressin-sensitive vesicles is phosphorylation-independent, that phosphorylation of Ser-256 is necessary and sufficient for expression of AQP2 in the apical membrane, and that PMA-induced PKC-mediated endocytosis of AQP2 is independent of the AQP2 phosphorylation state.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

Modelling the effects of inflow parameters on lake water quality

A one-dimensional lake water quality model which includes water temperature, phytoplankton, phosphorus as phosphate, nitrogen as ammonia, nitrogen as nitrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations, previously calibrated for Lake Calhoun (USA) is applied to Uokiri Lake (Japan) for the year 1994. The model simulated phytoplankton and nutrient concentrations in the lake from July to November. Most of the water quality parameters are found to be the same as for Lake Calhoun. To predict probable lake water quality deterioration from algal blooming due to increased nutrient influx from river inflow, the model was run for several inflow water conditions. Effects of inflow nutrient concentration, inflow volume, inflow water temperatures are presented separately. The effect of each factor is considered in isolation although in reality more than one factor can change simultaneously. From the results it is clear that inflow nutrient concentration, inflow volume and inflow water temperature show very regular and reasonable impacts on lake water quality.

Investigation of the starch gelatinisation phenomena in water-glycerol systems: application of modulated temperature differential scanning calorimetry

The use of modulated temperature differential scanning calorimetry (MTDSC) has provided further insight into the gelatinisation process since it allows the detection of glass transition during gelatinisation process. It was found in this work that the glass transition overlapped with the gelatinisation peak temperature for all maize starch formulations studied. Systematic investigation on maize starch gelatinisation over a range of water-glycerol concentrations with MTDSC revealed that the addition of glycerol increased the gelatinisation onset temperature with an extent that depended on the water content in the system. Furthermore, the addition of glycerol promoted starch gelatinisation at low water content (0.4 g water/g dry starch) and the enthalpy of gelatinisation varied with glycerol concentration (0.73-19.61 J/g dry starch) depending on the water content and starch type. The validities of published gelatinisation models were explored. These models failed to explain the glass transition phenomena observed during the course of gelatinisation and failed to describe the gelatinisation behaviour observed over the water-glycerol concentrations range investigated. A hypothesis for the mechanisms involved during gelatinisation was proposed based on the side chain liquid crystalline polymer model for starch structure and the concept that the order-disorder transition in starch requires that the hydrogen bonds (the major structural element in the granule packing) to be broken before the collapse of order (helix-coil transition) can take place. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of central composite rotatable design to modelling the effect of some operating variables on the performance of the three-product cyclone

The central composite rotatable design (CCRD) was used to design an experimental program to model the effects of inlet pressure, feed density, and length and diameter of the inner vortex finder on the operational performance of a 150-min three-product cyclone. The ranges of values of the variables used in the design were: inlet pressure: 80-130 kPa, feed density: 30 60%; length of IVF below the OVF: 50-585 mm; diameter of IVF: 35-50 mm. A total of 30 tests were conducted, which is 51 less; an that required for a three-level full factorial design. Because the model allows confident performance prediction by interpolation over the range of data in the database, it was used to construct response surface graphs to describe the effects of the variables on the performance of the three-product cyclone. To obtain a simple and yet a realistic model, it was refitted using only the variable terms that are significant at greater than or equal to 90% confidence level. Considering the selected operating variables, the resultant model is significant and predicts the experimental data well. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of visual occlusion and fatigue on motor performance in water

The purpose of this study was to test the effects of visual occlusion and fatigue on the motor performance of vertical skills in synchronized swimming. Experienced synchronized swimmers (n = 12) were randomly assigned to either an exercise or nonexercise (control) activity group. Subjective ratings of fatigue were obtained from the swimmers who then each performed four vertical skills under alternating conditions of vision and visual occlusion before and after either a swimming (designed to induce fatigue) or nonphysical activity. A main effect of activity (p < .03) was found for two measures of performance accuracy (lateral and anterior total distance traveled) but not for lateral and anterior maximum deviation from vertical, indicating that fatigue played a role in executing the skills. The data also indicate that the maintenance of a stationary position is a skill of greater difficulty than maintaining a true vertical. In contrast with previous research findings on synchronized swimmers, a significant effect of vision in all conditions was found, with performance decrements in the conditions of visual occlusion showing that vision provided important sensory input for the swimmers.

Numerical simulation of magnetite segregation in a dense medium cyclone

Numerical simulations of turbulent driven flow in a dense medium cyclone with magnetite medium have been conducted using Fluent. The predicted air core shape and diameter were found to be close to the experimental results measured by gamma ray tomography. It is possible that the Large eddy simulation (LES) turbulence model with Mixture multi-phase model can be used to predict the air/slurry interface accurately although the LES may need a finer grid. Multi-phase simulations (air/water/medium) are showing appropriate medium segregation effects but are over-predicting the level of segregation compared to that measured by gamma-ray tomography in particular with over prediction of medium concentrations near the wall. Further, investigated the accurate prediction of axial segregation of magnetite using the LES turbulence model together with the multi-phase mixture model and viscosity corrections according to the feed particle loading factor. Addition of lift forces and viscosity correction improved the predictions especially near the wall. Predicted density profiles are very close to gamma ray tomography data showing a clear density drop near the wall. The effect of size distribution of the magnetite has been fully studied. It is interesting to note that the ultra-fine magnetite sizes (i.e. 2 and 7 mu m) are distributed uniformly throughout the cyclone. As the size of magnetite increases, more segregation of magnetite occurs close to the wall. The cut-density (d(50)) of the magnetite segregation is 32 gm, which is expected with superfine magnetite feed size distribution. At higher feed densities the agreement between the [Dungilson, 1999; Wood, J.C., 1990. A performance model for coal-washing dense medium cyclones, Ph.D. Thesis, JKMRC, University of Queensland] correlations and the CFD are reasonably good, but the overflow density is lower than the model predictions. It is believed that the excessive underflow volumetric flow rates are responsible for under prediction of the overflow density. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The application of numerical modelling to the assessment of the potential for, and the detection of, spontaneous combustion in coal mines

Numerical modelling has been used to examine the relationship between the results of two commonly used methods of assessing the propensity of coal to spontaneous combustion, the R70 and Relative Ignition Temperature tests, and the likely behaviour in situ. The criticality of various parameters has been examined and a method of utilising critical self-heating parameters has been developed. This study shows that on their own, the laboratory test results do not provide a reliable guide to in situ behaviour but can be used in combination to considerably increase the ability to predict spontaneous combustion behaviour.

Observation of a cubic phase in mesoporous silicate films grown at the air/water interface

X-Ray diffraction is reported from mesoporous silicate films grown at the air/water interface. The films were studied both as powdered films, and oriented on silicon or mica sheets. At early stages of growth we observe Bragg diffraction from a highly ordered cubic phase, with both long and short d-spacing peaks. We have assigned this as a discontinuous micellar Pm3n phase in which the silica is partly ordered. Later films retain only the known hexagonal p6m peaks and have lost any order both at short d-spacings and the longer d-spacing Bragg peaks characteristic of the cubic structure. The silica framework is considerably expanded from that in bulk amorphous silica, average Si Si distances are some 30% greater. Incorporation of glycerol or polyethylene glycol preserves the earlier cubic structure. To be consistent with earlier, in situ, X-ray and neutron reflectivity data we infer that both structures are produced after a phase transition from a less-ordered him structure late in the induction phase. The structural relations between the film Pm3n and p6m phase(s) and the known bulk SBA-1 and MCM-41 phases are briefly discussed.

Absorption spectrum of a strongly driven atom in a detuned squeezed vacuum

We present numerical and analytical results for the Mollow probe absorption spectrum of a coherently driven two-level system in a narrow bandwidth squeezed vacuum field. The spectra are calculated for the case where the Rabi frequency of the driving field is much larger than the natural linewidth and the squeezed vacuum carrier frequency is detuned from the driving laser frequency. The driving laser is on resonance. We show that in a detuned squeezed vacuum the standard Mellow features are each split into triplets. The central components of each triplet are weakly dependent on the squeezing phase but the sidebands strongly depend on the phase and can have dispersive or absorptive/emissive profiles. We also derive approximate analytical expressions for the spectral features and find that the multi-peak structure of the spectrum can be interpreted either via the eigenfrequencies of a generalized Floquet Hamiltonian or in terms of three-photon transitions between dressed stales involving a probe field photon and a correlated photon pair from the squeezed vacuum field.

Water wave-driven seepage in marine sediments

The action of water waves moving over a porous seabed drives a seepage flux into and out of the marine sediments. The volume of fluid exchange per wave cycle may affect the rate of contaminant transport in the sediments. In this paper, the dynamic response of the seabed to ocean waves is treated analytically on the basis of pore-elastic theory applied to a porous seabed. The seabed is modelled as a semi-infinite, isotropic, homogeneous material. Most previous investigations on the wave-seabed interaction problem have assumed quasi-static conditions within the seabed, although dynamic behaviour often occurs in natural environments. Furthermore, wave pressures used in the previous approaches were obtained from conventional ocean wave theories: which are based on the assumption of an impermeable rigid seabed. By introducing a complex wave number, we derive a new wave dispersion equation, which includes the seabed characteristics (such as soil permeability, shear modulus, etc.). Based on the new closed-form analytical solution, the relative differences of the wave-induced seabed response under dynamic and quasi-static conditions are examined. The effects of wave and soil parameters on the seepage flux per wave cycle are also discussed in detail. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.