Weathering of hydrocarbons in mangrove sediments: testing the effects of using dispersants to treat oil spills

This field study was a combined chemical and biological investigation of the relative effects of using dispersants to treat oil spills impacting mangrove habitats. The aim of the chemistry was to determine whether dispersant affected the short- or long-term composition of a medium range crude oil (Gippsland) stranded in a tropical mangrove environment in Queensland, Australia. Sediment cores from three replicate plots of each treatment (oil only and oil plus dispersant) were analyzed for total hydrocarbons and for individual molecular markers (alkanes, aromatics, triterpanes, and steranes). Sediments were collected at 2 days, then 1, 7, 13 and 22 months post-spill. Over this time, oil in the six treated plots decreased exponentially from 36.6 +/- 16.5 to 1.2 +/- 0.8 mg/g dry wt. There was no statistical difference in initial oil concentrations, penetration of oil to depth, or in the rates of oil dissipation between oiled or dispersed oil plots. At 13 months, alkanes were >50% degraded, aromatics were similar to 30% degraded based upon ratios of labile to resistant markers. However, there was no change in the triterpane or sterane biomarker signatures of the retained oil. This is of general forensic interest for pollution events. The predominant removal processes were evaporation (less than or equal to 27%) and dissolution (greater than or equal to 56%), with a lag-phase of 1 month before the start of significant microbial degradation (less than or equal to 7%). The most resistant fraction of the oil that remained after 7 months (the higher molecular weight hydrocarbons) correlated with the initial total organic carbon content of the soil. Removal rate in the Queensland mangroves was significantly faster than that observed in the Caribbean and was related to tidal flushing. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

A model of specification-based testing of interactive systems

In this paper we present a model of specification-based testing of interactive systems. This model provides the basis for a framework to guide such testing. Interactive systems are traditionally decomposed into a functionality component and a user interface component; this distinction is termed dialogue separation and is the underlying basis for conceptual and architectural models of such systems. Correctness involves both proper behaviour of the user interface and proper computation by the underlying functionality. Specification-based testing is one method used to increase confidence in correctness, but it has had limited application to interactive system development to date.

Impact of on-site testing for maternal syphilis on treatment delays, treatment rates, and perinatal mortality in rural South Africa: a randomised controlled trial

Background: Syphilis remains a significant cause of preventable perinatal death in developing countries with many women remaining untested and thus untreated. Syphilis testing in the clinic (on-site testing) may be a useful strategy to overcome this. We studied the impact of on-site syphilis testing on treatment delays and rates, and perinatal mortality. Methods: We conducted a cluster randomised controlled trial among seven pairs of primary healthcare clinics in rural South Africa, comparing on-site testing complemented by laboratory confirmation versus laboratory testing alone. Intervention clinics used the on-site test conducted by primary care nurses, with results and treatment available within an hour. Control clinics sent blood samples to the provincial laboratory, with results returned 2 weeks later. Results: Of 7134 women seeking antenatal care with available test results, 793 (11.1%) tested positive for syphilis. Women at intervention clinics completed treatment 16 days sooner on average (95% confidence interval: 11 to 21), though there was no significant difference in the proportion receiving adequate treatment at intervention (64%) and control (69%) clinics. There was also no significant difference in the proportion experiencing perinatal loss (3.3% v 5.1%; adjusted risk difference: -0.9%; 95% Cl -4.4 to 2.7). Conclusions: Despite reducing treatment delays, the addition of on-site syphilis testing to existing laboratory testing services did not lead to higher treatment rates or reduce perinatal mortality. However on-site testing for syphilis may remain an important option for improving antenatal care in settings where laboratory facilities are not available.

Testing hypotheses about the relationship between cannabis use and psychosis

Aim: To model the impact of rising rates of cannabis use on the incidence and prevalence of psychosis under four hypotheses about the relationship between cannabis use and psychosis. Methods: The study modelled the effects on the prevalence of schizophrenia over the lifespan of cannabis in eight birth cohorts: 1940-1944, 1945-1949, 1950-1954, 1955-1959, 1960-1964, 1965-1969, 1970-1974, 1975-1979. It derived predictions as to the number of cases of schizophrenia that would be observed in these birth cohorts, given the following four hypotheses: (1) that there is a causal relationship between cannabis use and schizophrenia; (2) that cannabis use precipitates schizophrenia in vulnerable persons; (3) that cannabis use exacerbates schizophrenia; and (4) that persons with schizophrenia are more liable to become regular cannabis users. Results: There was a steep rise in the prevalence of cannabis use in Australia over the past 30 years and a corresponding decrease in the age of initiation of cannabis use. There was no evidence of a significant increase in the incidence of schizophrenia over the past 30 years. Data on trends the age of onset of schizophrenia did not show a clear pattern. Cannabis use among persons with schizophrenia has consistently been found to be more common than in the general population. Conclusions: Cannabis use does not appear to be causally related to the incidence of schizophrenia, but its use may precipitate disorders in persons who are vulnerable to developing psychosis and worsen the course of the disorder among those who have already developed it. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computational methods for prediction of T-cell epitopes - a framework for modelling, testing, and applications

Computational models complement laboratory experimentation for efficient identification of MHC-binding peptides and T-cell epitopes. Methods for prediction of MHC-binding peptides include binding motifs, quantitative matrices, artificial neural networks, hidden Markov models, and molecular modelling. Models derived by these methods have been successfully used for prediction of T-cell epitopes in cancer, autoimmunity, infectious disease, and allergy. For maximum benefit, the use of computer models must be treated as experiments analogous to standard laboratory procedures and performed according to strict standards. This requires careful selection of data for model building, and adequate testing and validation. A range of web-based databases and MHC-binding prediction programs are available. Although some available prediction programs for particular MHC alleles have reasonable accuracy, there is no guarantee that all models produce good quality predictions. In this article, we present and discuss a framework for modelling, testing, and applications of computational methods used in predictions of T-cell epitopes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A framework for specification-based testing

Test templates and a test template framework are introduced as useful concepts in specification-based testing. The framework can be defined using any model-based specification notation and used to derive tests from model-based specifications-in this paper, it is demonstrated using the Z notation. The framework formally defines test data sets and their relation to the operations in a specification and to other test data sets, providing structure to the testing process. Flexibility is preserved, so that many testing strategies can be used. Important application areas of the framework are discussed, including refinement of test data, regression testing, and test oracles.

Laboratory wear testing of polyurethane elastomers

A dry sand-rubber wheel abrasion test was used to investigate the wear behaviour of polyurethanes. The dry sand-rubber wheel abrasion test (DSRW test) is an approved ASTM test designed primarily for testing metals, therefore, in this study the set of test conditions was optimized for use with polyurethane elastomers. The wear performance of polyurethanes was assessed for the range of Shore hardness 85A to 65D, and a correlation was identified between the wear rate and the sample hardness. Polyurethane elastomers can be separated into three classes according to their hardness and wear performance, and each class shows a different dependence on the specimen temperature. This work has implications for use of the DSRW test for the prediction of field performance of polyurethanes. (C) Elsevier Science S.A.

Percutaneous absorption of sunscreen agents from liquid paraffin: Self-association of octyl salicylate and effects on skin flux

This study provides an investigation of the availability of octyl salicylate (OS), a common sunscreen agent, from liquid paraffin and the effect of OS on skin permeability. A model membrane system to isolate the vehicle effect from membrane permeability has been developed. Partitioning of OS between liquid paraffin and aqueous receptor phases was conducted. Partition coefficients increased with increase in OS concentration. A range of OS concentrations in liquid paraffin was diffused across human epidermis and synthetic membranes into 4% bovine serum albumin in phosphate-buffered saline and 50% ethanol. Absorption profiles of OS obtained from silicone and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) membranes were similar to each other but higher than for the high-density polyethylene [HDPE (3 times)] membrane and human epidermis (15 times). The steady state fluxes and apparent permeability coefficients (K-p') obtained from the diffusion studies showed the same trends with all membranes, except for the HDPE membrane which showed greater increase in flux and K-p' at concentrations above 30%. IR spectra showed that several bands of OS were shifted with concentrations, and the molecular models further suggested that the main contribution to the self-association is from non-1,4 van der Waals interactions.

Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market

This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.