64 resultados para Age-dependent Branching Processes with Immigration at Zero State


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Age is a critical determinant of an adult female mosquito's ability to transmit a range of human pathogens. Despite its central importance, relatively few methods exist with which to accurately determine chronological age of field-caught mosquitoes. This fact is a major constraint on our ability to fully understand the relative importance of vector longevity to disease transmission in different ecological contexts. It also limits our ability to evaluate novel disease control strategies that specifically target mosquito longevity. We report the development of a transcriptional profiling approach to determine age of adult female Aedes aegypti under field conditions. We demonstrate that this approach surpasses current cuticular hydrocarbon methods for both accuracy of predicted age as well as the upper limits at which age can be reliably predicted. The method is based on genes that display age-dependent expression in a range of dipteran insects and, as such, is likely to be broadly applicable to other disease vectors.

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In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by DIETERICH and KILGORE (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D-c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.

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We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of bounded or summable solutions to systems of linear equations associated with Markov chains. This substantially extends a famous result of G. E. H. Reuter, which provides a convenient means of checking various uniqueness criteria for birth-death processes. Our result allows chains with much more general transition structures to be accommodated. One application is to give a new proof of an important result of M. F. Chen concerning upwardly skip-free processes. We then use our generalization of Reuter's lemma to prove new results for downwardly skip-free chains, such as the Markov branching process and several of its many generalizations. This permits us to establish uniqueness criteria for several models, including the general birth, death, and catastrophe process, extended branching processes, and asymptotic birth-death processes, the latter being neither upwardly skip-free nor downwardly skip-free.

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Quasi-birth-and-death (QBD) processes with infinite “phase spaces” can exhibit unusual and interesting behavior. One of the simplest examples of such a process is the two-node tandem Jackson network, with the “phase” giving the state of the first queue and the “level” giving the state of the second queue. In this paper, we undertake an extensive analysis of the properties of this QBD. In particular, we investigate the spectral properties of Neuts’s R-matrix and show that the decay rate of the stationary distribution of the “level” process is not always equal to the convergence norm of R. In fact, we show that we can obtain any decay rate from a certain range by controlling only the transition structure at level zero, which is independent of R. We also consider the sequence of tandem queues that is constructed by restricting the waiting room of the first queue to some finite capacity, and then allowing this capacity to increase to infinity. We show that the decay rates for the finite truncations converge to a value, which is not necessarily the decay rate in the infinite waiting room case. Finally, we show that the probability that the process hits level n before level 0 given that it starts in level 1 decays at a rate which is not necessarily the same as the decay rate for the stationary distribution.

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Febrile seizures affect approximately 3% of all children under six years of age and are by far the most common seizure disorder(1). A small proportion of children with febrile seizures later develop ongoing epilepsy with afebrile seizures(2). Segregation analysis suggests the majority of cases have complex inheritance(3) but rare families show apparent autosomal dominant: inheritance. Two putative loci have been mapped (FEB1 and FEB2), but specific genes have not yet been identified(4,5). We recently described a clinical subset, termed generalized epilepsy with febrile seizures plus (GEFS(+)), in which many family members have seizures with fever that may persist beyond six years of age or be associated with afebrile generalized seizures(6). We now report linkage, in another large GEFS(+) family, to chromosome region 19q13.1 and identification of a mutation in the voltage-gated sodium (Na+)-channel beta 1 subunit gene (SCN1B). The mutation changes a conserved cysteine residue disrupting a putative disulfide bridge which normally maintains an extracellular immunoglobulin-like fold. Go-expression of the mutant pr subunit with a brain Na+-channel alpha subunit in Xenopus laevis oocytes demonstrates that the mutation interferes with the ability of the subunit to modulate channel-gating kinetics consistent with a loss-of-function allele. This observation develops the theme that idiopathic epilepsies are a family of channelopathies and raises the possibility of involvement of other Na+-channel subunit genes in febrile seizures and generalized epilepsies with complex inheritance patterns.

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Objective: To measure prevalence and model incidence of HIV infection. Setting: 2013 consecutive pregnant women attending public sector antenatal clinics in 1997 in Hlabisa health district, South Africa. Historical seroprevalence data, 1992-1995. Methods: Serum remaining from syphilis testing was tested anonymously for antibodies to HIV to determine seroprevalence. Two models, allowing for differential mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people, were used. The first used serial seroprevalence data to estimate trends in annual incidence. The second, a maximum likelihood model, took account of changing force of infection and age-dependent risk of infection, to estimate age-specific HIV incidence in 1997. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios (OR) for risk factors for prevalent HIV infection. Results: Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 4% in 1992/1993 to 10% in 1996/1997. In 1997, highest age-specific incidence was 16% among women aged between 20 and 24 years. in 1997, overall prevalence was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-28%) and at 34% was highest among women aged between 20 and 24 years. Young age (<30 years; odds ratio [OR], 2.1; p = .001), unmarried status (OR 2.2; p = .001) and living in less remote parts of the district (OR 1.5; p = .002) were associated with HIV prevalence in univariate analysis. Associations were less strong in multivariate analysis. Partner's migration status was not associated with HIV infection. Substantial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence by clinic was observed (range 17%-31%; test for trend, p = .001). Conclusions: This community is experiencing an explosive HIV epidemic. Young, single women in the more developed parts of the district would form an appropriate cohort to test, and benefit from, interventions such as vaginal microbicides and HIV vaccines.

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Epilepsies affect at least 2% of the population at some time in life, and many forms have genetic determinants(1,2). We have found a mutation in a gene encoding a GABA, receptor subunit in a large family with epilepsy. The two main phenotypes were childhood absence epilepsy (CAE) and febrile seizures (FS), There is a recognized genetic: relationship between FS and CAE, yet the two syndromes have different ages of onset, and the physiology of absences and convulsions is distinct. This suggests the mutation has age-dependent effects on different neuronal networks that influence the expression of these clinically distinct, but genetically related, epilepsy phenotypes. We found that the mutation in GABRG2 (encoding the gamma2-subunit) abolished in vitro sensitivity to diazepam, raising the possibility that endozepines do in fact exist and have a physiological role in preventing seizures.

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The offspringof older fathers have an increased risk of various disorders that may be due to the accumulation of DNA mutations during spermatogenesis. Previous studies have suggested increased paternal age may be a risk factor for schizophrenia. The aim of the current study was to examine paternal age as a risk factor for schizophrenia andror psychosis. We used data from three sources: a population-based cohort studyŽDenmark., and two case-control studiesŽSweden and Australia.. In the Danish and Australian studies, we examined both psychosis and schizophrenia. In the Swedish study we examined psychosis only. After controllingfor the effect of maternal age, increased paternal age was significantly associated with increased risk of both psychosis and schizophrenia in the Danish study and of psychosis in the Swedish study. The Australian study found no association between paternal age and risk of psychosis or schizophrenia. In all three studies the relationship between paternal age and risk of disorder in the offspring was AUB-shaped. In addition to an increased risk for the offspringof older father Ž)35 years., there was a non-significant increase for the offspringof fathers aged less than 20 years. The possible role of paternally derived DNA mutations andror other psychosocial factors associated with older paternal age warrants further research. The ‘U’-shaped relationship suggests that factors other than DNA mutations may warrant consideration in this research. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

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We compared the age-at-first-registration for patients with schizophrenia and affective psychosis in a statewide mental health register. After excluding those receiving (1) a diagnosis of both schizophrenia (ICD-9 295.x) and affective psychosis (ICD-9 296.x), or (2) a diagnosis of ICD-9 296.1 (which can cover major depressive episode), we adjusted the distributions for the age structure of the background general population. We found that all distributions showed a wide age range of onset, with a similar male modal age group of 20-24 for schizophrenia and 25-29 for affective psychosis. The female modal age group was 50-54 for both diagnoses. Although more individuals were diagnosed with schizophrenia (males = 2,434, females = 1,609) than with affective psychosis (males = 670, females = 913), the shape of the two distributions was similar. This finding suggests that factors influencing age-at-first-registration for schizophrenia and affective psychosis may be similar, especially for females.

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Purpose. To examine the postnatal development of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II-positive dendritic cells (DC) in the iris of the normal rat eye. Methods. Single-and double-color immunomorphologic studies were performed on whole mounts prepared from rat iris taken at selected postnatal ages (2 to 3 days to 78 weeks). Immunopositive cells were enumerated, using a quantitative light microscope, and MHC class II expression on individual cells was assessed by microdensitometric analysis. Results. Major histocompatibility class II-positive DCs in the iris developed in an age-dependent manner and reached adult-equivalent density and structure at approximately 10 weeks of age, considerably later than previously described in other DC populations in the rat. In contrast, the anti-rat DC monoclonal antibody OX62 revealed a population of cells present at adult-equivalent levels as early as 3 weeks after birth. Dual-color immunostaining and microdensitometric analysis demonstrated that during postnatal growth, development of the network of MHC class II-positive DCs was a consequence of the progressive increase in expression of MHC class II antigen by OX62-positive cells. Conclusions. During postnatal growth, the DC population of the iris develops initially as an OX62-positive-MHC class II-negative population, which then develops increasing MHC class II expression in situ and finally resembles classic DC populations in other tissue sites. Maturation of the iris DC population is temporally delayed compared with time to maturation in other tissue sites in the rat.

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High-level microsatellite instability (AISI-H) is demonstrated in 10 to 15% of sporadic colorectal cancers and in most cancers presenting In the inherited condition hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC). Distinction between these categories of MSI-H cancer is of clinical importance and the aim of this study was to assess clinical, pathological, and molecular features that might he discriminatory. One hundred and twelve MSI-H colorectal cancers from families fulfilling the Bethesda criteria were compared with 57 sporadic MSI-H colorectal cancers. HNPCC cancers presented at a lower age (P < 0.001) with no sporadic MSI-H cancer being diagnosed before the age of 57 years. MSI was less extensive in HNPCC cancers with 72% microsatellite markers showing band shifts compared with 87% in sporadic tumors (P < 0.001). Absent immunostaining for hMSH2 was only found in HNPCC tumors. Methylation of bMLH1 was observed in 87% of sporadic cancers but also in 55% of HNPCC tumors that showed loss of expression of hMLH1 (P = 0.02). HNPCC cancers were more frequently characterized by aberrant beta -catenin immunostaining as evidenced by nuclear positivity (P < 0.001). Aberrant p53 immunostaining was infrequent in both groups. There were no differences with respect to 5q loss of heterozygosity or codon 12 K-ras mutation, which were infrequent in both groups. Sporadic MSI-H cancers were more frequently heterogeneous (P < 0.001), poorly differentiated (P = 0.02), mucinous (P = 0.02), and proximally located (P = 0.04) than RNPCC tumors. In sporadic MSI-H cancers, contiguous adenomas were likely to be serrated whereas traditional adenomas were dominant in HNPCC. Lymphocytic infiltration was more pronounced in HNPCC but the results did not reach statistical significance. Overall, HNPCC cancers were more like common colorectal cancer in terms of morphology and expression of beta -catenin whereas sporadic MSI-H cancers displayed features consistent with a different morphogenesis. No individual feature was discriminatory for all RN-PCC cancers. However, a model based on four features was able to classify 94.5% of tumors as sporadic or HNPCC. The finding of multiple differences between sporadic and familial MSI-H colorectal cancer with respect to both genotype and phenotype is consistent with tumorigenesis through parallel evolutionary pathways and emphasizes the importance of studying the two groups separately.

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Large (>1600 mum), ingestively masticated particles of bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon L. Pers.) leaf and stem labelled with Yb-169 and Ce-144 respectively were inserted into the rumen digesta raft of heifers grazing bermuda grass. The concentration of markers in digesta sampled from the raft and ventral rumen were monitored at regular intervals over approximately 144 h. The data from the two sampling sites were simultaneously fitted to two pool (raft and ventral rumen-reticulum) models with either reversible or sequential flow between the two pools. The sequential flow model fitted the data equally as well as the reversible flow model but the reversible flow model was used because of its greater application. The reversible flow model, hereafter called the raft model, had the following features: a relatively slow age-dependent transfer rate from the raft (means for a gamma 2 distributed rate parameter for leaf 0.0740 v. stem 0.0478 h(-1)), a very slow first order reversible flow from the ventral rumen to the raft (mean for leaf and stem 0.010 h(-1)) and a very rapid first order exit from the ventral rumen (mean of leaf and stem 0.44 h(-1)). The raft was calculated to occupy approximately 0.82 total rumen DM of the raft and ventral rumen pools. Fitting a sequential two pool model or a single exponential model individually to values from each of the two sampling sites yielded similar parameter values for both sites and faster rate parameters for leaf as compared with stem, in agreement with the raft model. These results were interpreted as indicating that the raft forms a large relatively inert pool within the rumen. Particles generated within the raft have difficulty escaping but once into the ventral rumen pool they escape quickly with a low probability of return to the raft. It was concluded that the raft model gave a good interpretation of the data and emphasized escape from and movement within the raft as important components of the residence time of leaf and stem particles within the rumen digesta of cattle.

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Our studies on two branching mutants of pea (Pisum sativum L.) have identified a further Ramosus locus, Rms6, with two recessive or partially recessive mutant alleles: rms6-1 (type line S2-271) and rms6-2 (type line K586). Mutants rms6-1 and rms6-2 were derived from dwarf and tall cultivars, Solara and Torsdag, respectively. The rms6 mutants are characterized by increased branching from basal nodes. In contrast, mutants rms1 through rms5 have increased branching from both basal and aerial (upper stem) nodes. Buds at the cotyledonary node of wild-type (WT) plants remain dormant but in rms6 plants these buds were usually released from dormancy. Their growth was either subsequently inhibited, sometimes even prior to emergence above ground, or they grew into secondary stems. The mutant phenotype was strongest for rms6-1 on the dwarf background. Although rms6-2 had a weak single-mutant phenotype, the rms3-1 rms6-2 double mutant showed clear transgression and an additive branching phenotype, with a total lateral length almost 2-fold greater than rms3-1 and nearly 5-fold greater than rms6-2 . Grafting studies between WT and rms6-1 plants demonstrated the primary action of Rms6 may be confined to the shoot. Young WT and rms6-1 shoots had similar auxin levels, and decapitated plants had a similar magnitude of response to applied auxin. Abscisic acid levels were elevated 2-fold at node 2 of young rms6-1 plants. The Rms6 locus mapped to the R to Gp segment of linkage group V (chromosome 3). The rms6 mutants will be useful for basic research and also have possible agronomical value.

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Expression of the mRNAs encoding the astrocytic (EAAT1, EAAT2) and neuronal (EAAT3, EAAT4) excitatory amino acid transporters and the AMPA-type glutamate receptor subunits GluR2 and GluR3 was investigated in postmortem cerebellar extracts from a patient with olivopontocerebellar atrophy (OPCA) and in material from three age-matched controls. Decreased expression in the steady state level of EAAT4 mRNA in the OPCA sample was correlated with the selective loss of Purkinje cells. Neuropathological evaluation revealed reactive gliosis and concomitantly increased expression of the mRNA encoding astrocytic glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP). Expression of the mRNAs encoding the AMPA receptor subunits GluR2 and GluR3 subunits was found to be decreased in OPCA suggesting that excitotoxic mechanism could play a role in the pathogenesis of the selective neuronal cell death in this disorder.

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Complex chemical reactions in the gas phase can be decomposed into a network of elementary (e.g., unimolecular and bimolecular) steps which may involve multiple reactant channels, multiple intermediates, and multiple products. The modeling of such reactions involves describing the molecular species and their transformation by reaction at a detailed level. Here we focus on a detailed modeling of the C(P-3)+allene (C3H4) reaction, for which molecular beam experiments and theoretical calculations have previously been performed. In our previous calculations, product branching ratios for a nonrotating isomerizing unimolecular system were predicted. We extend the previous calculations to predict absolute unimolecular rate coefficients and branching ratios using microcanonical variational transition state theory (mu-VTST) with full energy and angular momentum resolution. Our calculation of the initial capture rate is facilitated by systematic ab initio potential energy surface calculations that describe the interaction potential between carbon and allene as a function of the angle of attack. Furthermore, the chemical kinetic scheme is enhanced to explicitly treat the entrance channels in terms of a predicted overall input flux and also to allow for the possibility of redissociation via the entrance channels. Thus, the computation of total bimolecular reaction rates and partial capture rates is now possible. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.