Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.

Corporate stadium sponsorships, signaling theory, agency conflicts, and shareholder wealth

Contrary to the plethora of critical articles recently appearing in both the popular and business press, this carefully controlled investigation of 49 stadium- and arena-naming-rights agreement announcements provides striking evidence that such sponsorships can significantly enhance the stock prices of sponsoring companies. Indeed, the results of the study show that the average stadium sponsor's stock prices increased by 1.65 percent at the time of announcement of the programs-a result considerably in excess of the returns associated with other major marketing programs such as the signing of Olympic sponsorships and celebrity endorsers. A multiple regression analysis employing firm-specific changes in stock prices as the dependent variable and quantifiable corporate and sponsorship-related attributes as independent variables is also presented. Variables positively and significantly correlated with perceived sponsorship success include team-winning percentages, contract length, and high technology and locally based companies. Overall, the findings of the study are consistent with the novel hypothesis that, for some firms, the real value-added of a stadium sponsorship may lie in its ability to serve as an effective or honest signal of managerial confidence in the future of the company.

Ar-40/-Ar-39 geochronology at the Instituto de Geociencias, USP: instrumentation, analytical procedures, and calibration

Laser heating Ar-40/Ar-39 geochronology provides high analytical precision and accuracy, mum-scale spatial resolution. and statistically significant data sets for the study of geological and planetary processes, A newly commissioned Ar-40/Ar-39 laboratory at CPGeo/USP, Sao Paulo, Brazil, equips the Brazilian scientific community with a new powerful tool applicable to the study of geological and cosmochemical processes. Detailed information about laboratory layout, environmental conditions, and instrumentation provides the necessary parameters for the evaluation of the CPGeo/USp Ar-40/Ar-39 suitability to a diverse range of applications. Details about analytical procedures, including mineral separation, irradiation at the IPEN/CNEN reactor at USP, and mass spectrometric analysis enable potential researchers to design the necessary sampling and sample preparation program suitable to the objectives of their study. Finally, the results of calibration tests using Ca and K salts and glasses, international mineral standards, and in-house mineral standards show that the accuracy and precision obtained at the Ar-40/Ar-39 laboratory at CPGeo/USP are comparable to results obtained in the most respected laboratories internationally. The extensive calibration and standardization procedures under-taken ensure that the results of analytical studies carried out in our laboratories will gain immediate international credibility, enabling Brazilian students and scientists to conduct forefront research in earth and planetary sciences.

Detection of swallowing sounds: Methodology revisited

Cervical auscultation is in the process of gaining clinical credibility. In order for it to be accepted by the clinical community, the procedure and equipment used must first be standardized. Takahashi et al. [Dysphagia 9:54-62, 1994] attempted to provide benchmark methodology for administering cervical auscultation. They provided information about the acoustic detector unit best suited to picking up swallowing sounds and the best cervical site to place it. The current investigation provides contrasting results to Takahashi et al. with respect to the best type of acoustic detector unit to use for detecting swallowing sounds. Our study advocates an electret microphone as opposed to an accelerometer for recording swallowing sounds. However, we agree on the optimal placement site. We conclude that cervical auscultation is within reach of the average dysphagia clinic.