A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

V4 region of small subunit rDNA indicates polyphyly of the Fellodistomidae (Digenea) which is supported by morphology and life-cycle data

There is no morphological synapomorphy for the disparate digeneans, the Fellodistomidae Nicoll, 1909. Although all known life-cycles of the group include bivalves as first intermediate hosts, there is no convincing morphological synapomorphy that can be used to unite the group. Sequences from the V4 region of small subunit (18S) rRNA genes were used to infer phylogenetic relationships among 13 species of Fellodistomidae from four subfamilies and eight species from seven other digenean families: Bivesiculidae; Brachylaimidae; Bucephalidae; Gorgoderidae; Gymnophallidae; Opecoelidae; and Zoogonidae. Outgroup comparison was made initially with an aspidogastrean. Various species from the other digenean families were used as outgroups in subsequent analyses. Three methods of analysis indicated polyphyly of the Fellodistomidae and at least two independent radiations of the subfamilies, such that they were more closely associated with other digeneans than to each other. The Tandanicolinae was monophyletic (100% bootstrap support) and was weakly associated with the Gymnophallidae (< 50-55% bootstrap support). Monophyly of the Baccigerinae was supported with 78-87% bootstrap support, and monophyly of the Zoogonidae + Baccigerinae received 77-86% support. The remaining fellodistomid species, Fellodistomum fellis, F. agnotum and Coomera brayi (Fellodistominae) plus Proctoeces maculatus and Complexobursa sp. (Proctoecinae), formed a separate clade with 74-92% bootstrap support. On the basis of molecular, morphological and life-cycle evidence, the subfamilies Baccigerinae and Tandanicolinae are removed from the Fellodistomidae and promoted to familial status. The Baccigerinae is promoted under the senior synonym Faustulidae Poche, 1926, and the Echinobrevicecinae Dronen, Blend & McEachran, 1994 is synonymised with the Faustulidae. Consequently, species that were formerly in the Fellodistomidae are now distributed in three families: Fellodistomidae; Faustulidae (syn. Baccigerinae Yamaguti, 1954); and Tandanicolidae Johnston, 1927. We infer that the use of bivalves as intermediate hosts by this broad range of families indicates multiple host-switching events within the radiation of the Digenea.

Initial results of ultrasound screening for aneurysm of the abdominal aorta in Western Australia: relevance for endoluminal treatment of aneurysm disease

Background. Increased life expectancy in men during the last thirty years is largely due to the decrease in mortality from cardiovascular disease in the age group 29-69 yr. This change has resulted in a change in the disease profile of the population with conditions such as aneurysm of the abdominal aorta (AAA) becoming more prevalent. The advent of endoluminal treatment for AAA has encouraged prophylactic intervention and fuelled the argument to screen for the disease. The feasibility of inserting an endoluminal graft is dependent on the morphology and growth characteristics of the aneurysm. This study used data from a randomized controlled trial of ultrasound screening for AAA in men aged 65-83 yr in Western Australia for the purpose of determining the norms of the living anatomy in the pressurized infrarenal aorta. Aims. To examine (1) the diameters of the infra-renal aorta in aneurysmal and non-aneurysmal cases, (2) the implications for treatment modalities, with particular reference to endoluminal grafting, which is most dependent on normal and aneurysmal morphology, and (3) any evidence to support the notion that northern Europeans are predisposed to aneurysmal disease. Methods. Using ultrasound, a randomized control trial was established in Western Australia to assess the value of a screening program in males aged 65-83 yr, The infra-renal aorta was defined as aneurysmal if the maximum diameter was 30 mm or more. Aortic diameter was modelled both as a continuous tin mm) and as a binary outcome variable, for those men who had an infra-renal diameter of 30 mm or more. ANOVA and linear regression were used for modelling aortic diameter as a continuum, while chi-square analysis and logistic regression were used in comparing men with and without the diagnosis of AAA. Findings. By December 1998, of 19.583 men had been invited to undergo ultrasound screening for AAA, 12.203 accepted the invitation (corrected response fraction 70.8%). The prevalence of AAA increased with age from 4.8% at 65 yr to 10.8% at 80 yr (chi (2) = 77.9, df = 3, P<0.001). The median (IQR) diameter for the non-aneurysmal group was 21.4 mm (3.3 mm) and there was an increase (<chi>(2) = 76.0, df = 1, P<0.001) in the diameter of the infra-renal aorta with age. Since 27 mm is the 95th centile for the non-aneurysmal infra-renal aorta, a diameter of 30 mm or more is justified as defining an aneurysm. The risk of AAA was higher in men of Australian (OR = 1.0) and northern European origin (OR = 1.0, 95%CL: 0.9. 1.2) compared with those of Mediterranean origin (OR = 0.5, 99%CL: 0.4, 0.7). Conclusion. Although screening has not yet been shown to reduce mortality from AAA. these population-based data assist the understanding of aneurysmal disease and the further development and use of endoluminal grafts for this condition. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of The International Society for Cardiovascular Surgery.

Conceptualizing quality of life for elderly people with stroke

Purpose : Despite increased interest in quality of life (QOL) as an outcome measure and as a means of identifying client needs in health care, its conceptualisation and the identification of its constituents have been poorly researched for elderly people with stroke in Hong Kong. Method: This article analysed the literature to identify components relevant to the QOL of Chinese elderly people with stroke living in the community in Hong Kong. Results : While common components of QOL for elderly people with and without stroke and regardless of cultural background were identified, a number were specific to an elderly Chinese stroke population. Conclusion : Recommendations for future research have been made with reference to further exploring and validating these components for the target population. A clear understanding of these aspects is essential for the development of sensitive QOL measures to guide and evaluate service delivery to this population.

Being breastfed in infancy and breast cancer incidence in adult life: Results from the two Nurses' Health studies

Events during perinatal and early life may influence the incidence of breast cancer in adult life, and some case-control studies suggest that having been breastfed may reduce breast cancer risk. The authors studied this association among premenopausal and postmenopausal women by using data from the two Nurses' Health Studies, the Nurses' Health Study (using data from 1992 to 1996) and the Nurses' Health Study II (using data from 1991 to 1997). A history of being breastfed was self-reported by the study participants. During a total of 695,655 person-years, 1,073 cases of invasive breast cancer were diagnosed. The authors did not observe any important overall association between having been breastfed and the development of breast cancer later in life among premenopausal women (covariate-adjusted relative risk = 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78, 1.20) or postmenopausal women (covariate-adjusted relative risk = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.92, 1.37). No significant trend was observed with increasing duration of breastfeeding. The authors also used data on breastfeeding retrospectively collected from 2,103 mothers of participants of the two Nurses' Health Studies. With the mothers' reports, the covariate-adjusted odds ratio of breast cancer was 1.11 (95% CI: 0.88, 1.39) for women who were breastfed compared with those who were not. Data from these two large cohorts do not support the hypothesis that being breastfed confers protection against subsequent breast cancer.

A total-evidence phylogeny of ticks provides insights into the evolution of life cycles and biogeography

We inferred the phylogeny of 33 species of ticks from the subfamilies Rhipicephalinae and Hyalomminae from analyses of nuclear and mitochondrial DNA and morphology. We used nucleotide sequences from 12S rRNA, cytochrome c oxidase I, internal transcribed spacer 2 of the nuclear rRNA, and 18S rRNA. Nucleotide sequences and morphology were analyzed separately and together in a total-evidence analysis. Analyses of the five partitions together (3303 characters) gave the best-resolved and the best-supported hypothesis so far for the phylogeny of ticks in the Rhipicephalinae and Hyalomminae, despite the fact that some partitions did not have data for some taxa. However, most of the hidden conflict (lower support in the total-evidence analyses compared to that in the individual analyses) was found in those partitions that had taxa without data. The partitions with complete taxonomic sampling had more hidden support (higher support in the total-evidence analyses compared to that in the separate-partition analyses) than hidden conflict. Mapping of geographic origins of ticks onto our phylogeny indicates an African origin for the Rhipicephalinae sensu lato (i.e., including Hyalomma spp.), the Rhipicephalus-Boophilus lineage, the Dermacentor-Anocentor lineage, and the Rhipicephalus-Booophilus-Nosomma-Hyalomma-Rhipicentor lineage. The Nosomma-Hyalomma lineage appears to have evolved in Asia. Our total-evidence phylogeny indicates that (i) the genus Rhipicephalus is paraphyletic with respect to the genus Boophilus, (ii) the genus Dermacentor is paraphyletic with respect to the genus Anocentor, and (iii) some subgenera of the genera Hyalomma and Rhipicephalus are paraphyletic with respect to other subgenera in these genera. Study of the Rhipicephalinae and Hyalomminae over the last 7 years has shown that analyses of individual datasets (e.g., one gene or morphology) seldom resolve many phylogenetic relationships, but analyses of more than one dataset can generate well-resolved phylogenies for these ticks. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

The life-history basis of latitudinal diversity gradients: how do species traits vary from the poles to the equator.

1. Latitudinal variation among species in life-history traits is often suggested to contribute to high tropical species richness. However, traditional methods of analysing such variation rarely control for phylogeny and latitudinal range overlap between species, potentially giving misleading results. 2. Using a method of pairwise independent contrasts which overcomes these problems, I tested for latitudinal variation among bird species in a number of traits which have been linked, theoretically or empirically, with both latitude and species richness. 3. This method indicates strong support for Rapoport's Rule and decreasing clutch size towards the equator in both hemispheres, but only partial support for decreasing body size and ecological generalism towards the equator. 4. Indirect measures of sexual selection (sexual dichromatism and size dimorphism) show no variation with latitude; an apparent increase in dichromatism towards the equator is shown to be an artefact of phylogeny. 5. Many of the associations between life history and latitude were not detected by traditional cross-species analyses, highlighting the importance of incorporating phylogeny and overlap in studies of geographical life-history variation. Establishing associations between life-history traits and latitude does not prove, but is a necessary prerequisite for., a link between these traits and latitudinal diversity gradients.

Attenuation of cardiac fibrosis by pirfenidone and amiloride in DOCA-salt hypertensive rats

1 This study has administered pirfenidone (5-methyl-l-phenyl-2-[1H]-pyridone) or amiloride to attenuate the remodelling and associated functional changes, especially an increased cardiac stiffness, in DOCA-salt hypertensive rats. 2 In control rats, the elimination half-life of pirfenidone following a single intravenous dose of 200 mg kg(-1) was 37 min while oral bioavailability at this dose was 25.7%. Plasma pirfenidone concentrations in control rats averaged 1.9 +/- 0.1 mug ml(-1) over 24 It after 14 days' administration as a 0.4% mixture in food. 3 Pirfenidone (approximately 250-300 mg kg(-1) day(-1) as 0.4% in food) and amiloride (I mg kg-1 day(-1) sc) were administered for 2 weeks starting 2 weeks post-surgery. Pirfenidone but not amiloride attenuated ventricular hypertrophy (2.69 +/- 0.09, UNX 2.01 +/- 0.05. DOCA-salt 3.11 +/- 0.09 mg kg(-1) body wt) without lowering systolic blood pressure. 4 Collagen deposition was significantly increased in the interstitium after 2 weeks and further increased with scarring of the left ventricle after 4 weeks; pirfenidone and amiloride reversed the increases and prevented further increases. This accumulation of collagen was accompanied by an increase in diastolic stiffness constant; both amiloride and pirfenidone, reversed this increase. 5 Noradrenaline potency (positive chronotropy) was decreased in right atria (neg log EC50: control 6.92 +/- 0.06; DOCA-salt 6.64 +/- 0.08); pirfenidone but not amiloride reversed this change. Noradrenaline was a more potent vasoconstrictor in thoracic aortic rings (neg log EC50: control 6.91 +/- 0.10; DOCA-salt 7.90 +/- 0.07); pirfenidone treatment did not change noradrenaline potency. 6 Thus, pirfenidone and amiloride reverse and prevent cardiac remodelling and the increased cardiac stiffness without reversing the increased vascular responses to noradrenaline.

Effects of BDF 9198 on left ventricular contractility in advanced spontaneously hypertensive rats with heart failure

In the first part of this study, we characterized 24-month-old Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats and spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRs), their heart weights, and the responses of the isolated left ventricles to electrical stimulation. In the main part of the study, we tested whether the positive inotropic effects of BDF 9198, which prevents the closure of the cardiac sodium channel, were present in senescence and heart failure. Thus, we studied the effects of BDF 9198 on the left ventricle strips of 24-month-old WKY rats (senescence) and SHRs using contractility methods. In comparison with WKY rats, the left ventricles of 24-month-old SHRs were hypertrophied and had prolonged times to peak contraction. BDF 9198 (10(-8) to 10(-6) m) was a positive inotrope on the left ventricles of WKY rats, with a maximum augmenting effect of 122% with BDF 9198 at 10(-7) m. The magnitude of the augmenting effects of BDF 9198 were reduced in SHR heart failure, with a maximum augmenting effect of 26% at 10(-7) m. BDF 9198 at 10(-6) m attenuated the responses of the SHR left ventricle to electrical stimulation. In conclusion, the potential of drugs that prevent closure of the sodium channel as positive inotropes in the treatment of heart failure should be further considered.

Quality of Life and Colorectal Cancer: a Review

Objectives: To describe what is known of quality of life for colorectal cancer patients, to review what has been done in the Australian setting and to identify emerging directions for future research to address current gaps in knowledge. Method: A literature search (using Medline, PsychInfo, CINAHL and Sociological Abstracts) was conducted and 41 articles identified for review. Results: Three key areas relating to quality of life in colorectal cancer patients emerged from the literature review: the definition and measurement of quality of life; predictors of quality of life; and the relationship of quality of life to survival. Results of existing studies are inconsistent in relation to quality of life over time and its relationship to survival. Small sample sizes and methodological limitations make interpretation difficult. Conclusions: There is a need for large-scale, longitudinal, population-based studies describing the quality of life experienced by colorectal cancer patients and its determinants. Measurement and simultaneous adjustment for potential confounding factors would productively advance knowledge in this area, as would an analysis of the economic cost of morbidity to the community and an assessment of the cost effectiveness of proposed interventions. Implications: As the Australian population ages, the prevalence of colorectal cancer within the community will increase. This burden of disease presents as a priority area for public health research. An improved understanding of quality of life and its predictors will inform the development and design of supportive interventions for those affected by the disease.

Pro-fibrotic polymorphisms predictive of advanced liver fibrosis in the severely obese

Background/Aims: Insulin resistance and systemic hypertension are predictors of advanced fibrosis in obese patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Genetic factors may also be important. We hypothesize that high angiotensinogen (AT) and transforming growth factor-beta1 (TGF-beta1) producing genotypes increase the risk of liver fibrosis in obese subjects with NAFLD. Methods: One hundred and five of 130 consecutive severely obese patients having a liver biopsy at the time of laparoscopic obesity surgery agreed to have genotype analysis. Influence of specific genotype or combination of genotypes on the stage of hepatic fibrosis was assessed after controlling for known risk factors. Results: There was no fibrosis in 70 (67%), stages 1-2 in 21 (20%) and stages 3-4 fibrosis in 14 (13%) of subjects. There was no relationship between either high AT or TGF-beta1 producing genotypes alone and hepatic fibrosis after controlling for confounding factors. However, advanced hepatic fibrosis occurred in five of 13 subjects (odds ratio 5.7, 95% confidence interval 1.5-21.2, P = 0.005) who inherited both high AT and TGF-beta1 producing polymorphisms. Conclusions: The combination of high AT and TGF-beta1 producing polymorphisms is associated with advanced hepatic fibrosis in obese patients with NAFLD. These findings support the hypothesis that angiotensin II stimulated TGF-beta1 production may promote hepatic fibrosis. (C) 2003 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of complementary and alternative medicine and quality of life: changes at the end of life

The purpose of this study was to compare the physical, psychological and social dimensions associated with quality-of-life outcomes over the last year of life, between advanced cancer users and nonusers of complementary and alternative medicine. One hundred and eleven patients were identified through Queensland Cancer Registry records, and followed up every four to six weeks until close to death using standardized protocols. Outcome measures were symptom burden, psychological distress, subjective wellbeing, satisfaction with conventional medicine and need for control over treatment decisions. At the initial interview, 36 (32%) participants had used complementary/ alternative medicine the previous week; mainly vitamins, minerals and tonics and herbal remedies. Among all participants, 53 (48%) used at least one form of complementary/ alternative medicine over the study period. Only six (11%) visited alternative practitioners on a regular basis. Overall, complementary/ alternative medicine users reported higher levels of anxiety and pain, less satisfaction with conventional medicine and lower need for control over treatment decisions compared with nonusers. These differences tend to change as death approaches. A more rigorous assessment of complementary/ alternative medicine use, psychological distress, pain and subjective wellbeing among patients with advanced cancer is needed in the clinical setting.

Cardiac adaptation to endurance exercise in rats

Endurance exercise is widely assumed to improve cardiac function in humans. This project has determined cardiac function following endurance exercise for 6 (n = 30) or 12 ( n = 25) weeks in male Wistar rats (8 weeks old). The exercise protocol was 30 min/day at 0.8 km/h for 5 days/week with an endurance test on the 6th day by running at 1.2 km/h until exhaustion. Exercise endurance increased by 318% after 6 weeks and 609% after 12 weeks. Heart weight/kg body weight increased by 10.2% after 6 weeks and 24.1% after 12 weeks. Echocardiography after 12 weeks showed increases in left ventricular internal diameter in diastole (6.39 +/- 0.32 to 7.90 +/- 0.17 mm), systolic volume (49 +/- 7 to 83 +/- 11 mul) and cardiac output (75 +/- 3 to 107 +/- 8 ml/min) but not left wall thickness in diastole (1.74 +/- 0.07 to 1.80 +/- 0.06 mm). Isolated Langendorff hearts from trained rats displayed decreased left ventricular myocardial stiffness (22 +/- 1.1 to 19.1 +/- 0.3) and reduced purine efflux during pacing-induced workload increases. P-31-NMR spectroscopy in isolated hearts from trained rats showed decreased PCr and PCr/ATP ratios with increased creatine, AMP and ADP concentrations. Thus, this endurance exercise protocol resulted in physiological hypertrophy while maintaining or improving cardiac function.