Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Sibling competition and parental control: Patterns of begging in parrots

Begging and food allocation patterns are the outcome of complex and repeated interactions between parents and young. In most systems studied, food allocation is regulated by begging and scramble competition. In contrast, little is understood about how nestling solicitation behaviours will evolve in systems where parents engage in complex patterns of food allocation. Parrots appear to be an excellent group in which to examine the shifting balance between sibling competition and parental control. Studies to date have shown that levels of sibling competition within parrot broods are low, possibly in response to parental control over food distribution. I assess what is known about the function of nestling begging in parrots and evaluate why begging signals appear to function differently in this group.

Absolute and relative abundance estimates of Australian east cost humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

The humpback whales that migrate along the east coast of Australia were hunted to near-extinction in the 1950s and early 1960s. Two independent series of land-based surveys conducted over the last 25 years during the whales’ northward migration along the Australian coastline have demonstrated a rapid increase in the size of the population. In 2004 we conducted a survey of the migratory population as a continuation of these series of surveys. Two methods of data analysis were used in line with the previous surveys, both for calculation of absolute and relative abundance. We consider the best estimates for 2004 to be 7,090 ± 660 (95% CI) whales with an annual rate of increase of 10.6 ± 0.5% (95% CI) for 1987 – 2004. The rate of increase agrees with those previously obtained for this population and demonstrates the continuation of a strong post-exploitation recovery. While there are still some uncertainties concerning the absolute abundance estimate and structure of this population, the rate of annual increase should be independent of these and highly robust.

Temperature variation within and between nests of the green sea turtle, Chelonia mydas (Chelonia : Cheloniidae) on Heron Island, Great Barrier Reef

Four temperature data-loggers were placed in each of five green sea turtle nests on Heron Island in the 1998-99 nesting season. Temperatures in all nests increased as incubation progressed due to general sand heating and increased metabolic heat production of the developing embryos. Even at the top of nests no daily diurnal fluctuation in temperature was evident. The temperature of eggs in the middle of the nest increased above those in the nest periphery during the last third of incubation. However, this metabolic nest heating would have little effect on hatchling sex ratio because it occurred after the sex-determining period. Small differences in temperature between regions of a nest persisted throughout incubation and may be important in ensuring the production of at least some individuals of the opposite sex in nests that have temperatures close to either the all-male or all-female determining temperatures. Location and degree of shading of nests had little effect on mean nest temperature, but deeper nests were generally cooler and therefore were predicted to produce a higher proportion of males than were shallower nests. Nest temperature profile data indicated that the 1998-99 nesting season on Heron Island would have produced a strongly female-biased sex ratio amongst hatchlings.

Incubation temperature, energy expenditure and hatchling size in the green turtle (Chelonia mydas), a species with temperature-sensitive sex determination

Eggs from the Heron Island, Great Barrier Reef, nesting population of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) were incubated at all-male-determining (26 degreesC) and all-female-determining (30 degreesC) temperatures. Oxygen consumption and embryonic growth were monitored throughout incubation, and hatchling masses and body dimensions were measured from both temperatures. Eggs hatched after 79 and 53 days incubation at 26 degreesC and 30 degreesC respectively. Oxygen consumption at both temperatures increased to a peak several days before hatching, a pattern typical of turtle embryos, and the rate of oxygen was higher at 30 degreesC than 26 degreesC. The total amount of energy consumed during incubation, and hatchling dimensions, were similar at both temperatures, but hatchlings from 26 degreesC had larger mass, larger yolk-free mass and smaller residual yolks than hatchlings from 30 degreesC. Because of the difference in mass of hatchlings, hatchlings from 30 degreesC had a higher production cost.

Demography of bridled nailtail wallabies translocated to the edge of their former range from captive and wild stock

Despite numerous, generally unsuccessful attempts to reintroduce threatened Australian mammals, the factors leading to their failure have not been fully clarified, although predator control would appear to be of paramount importance. An experimental approach was taken in attempting to establish a population of bridled nailtail wallabies ih an area of apparently suitable habitat and low fox density, but on the edge of the species' former range. The 133 wallabies released since late 1996 comprised four groups captive-bred animals, wild caught from the single remaining wild population, animals that were captive bred and acclimatised at the translocation site in a 10 ha predator-proof enclosure, and animals which had been bred in the enclosure. Survival was highest in those bred in the enclosure and highly variable among captive-bred animals. Survival estimates for wild recruits suggested the population would maintain a positive rate of increase under prevailing environmental conditions. Spotlighting surveys suggested the population had increased to approximately 400 animals by late 1999. Above average rainfall during 1996-1999 and no apparent predation suggests caution in describing the translocation as a success. Ongoing monitoring is critical, because it A uncertain ho v the population will cope with drought and inevitable predation events, and whether the population will expand and persist outside of limited preferred habitat. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.