Evaluating trends in abundance of immature green turtles, Chelonia mydas, in the Greater Caribbean

Many long-lived marine species exhibit life history traits. that make them more vulnerable to overexploitation. Accurate population trend analysis is essential for development and assessment of management plans for these species. However, because many of these species disperse over large geographic areas, have life stages inaccessible to human surveyors, and/or undergo complex developmental migrations, data on trends in abundance are often available for only one stage of the population, usually breeding adults. The green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is one of these long-lived species for which population trends are based almost exclusively on either numbers of females that emerge to nest or numbers of nests deposited each year on geographically restricted beaches. In this study, we generated estimates of annual abundance for juvenile green turtles at two foraging grounds in the Bahamas based on long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies at Union Creek (24 years) and Conception Creek (13 years), using a two-stage approach. First, we estimated recapture probabilities from CMR data using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models in the software program MARK; second, we estimated annual abundance of green turtles. at both study sites using the recapture probabilities in a Horvitz-Thompson type estimation procedure. Green turtle abundance did not change significantly in Conception Creek, but, in Union Creek, green turtle abundance had successive phases of significant increase, significant decrease, and stability. These changes in abundance resulted from changes in immigration, not survival or emigration. The trends in abundance on the foraging grounds did not conform to the significantly increasing trend for the major nesting population at Tortuguero, Costa Rica. This disparity highlights the challenges of assessing population-wide trends of green turtles and other long-lived species. The best approach for monitoring population trends may be a combination of (1) extensive surveys to provide data for large-scale trends in relative population abundance, and (2) intensive surveys, using CMR techniques, to estimate absolute abundance and evaluate the demographic processes' driving the trends.

Recent developments in population projection methodology: A review

In this paper we survey five streams of research that have made important contributions to population projection methodology over the last decade. These are: (i) the evaluation of population forecasts; (ii) probabilistic methods; (iii) experiments in the projection of migration; (iv) projecting dimensions additional to age, sex and region; and (v) the use of scenarios for 'what if?' analyses and understanding population dynamics. Key developments in these areas are discussed, and a number of opportunities for further research are identified. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Understanding the phylogeographic patterns of European hedgehogs, Erinaceus concolor and E-europaeus using the MHC

The genome of the European hedgehog, Erinaceus concolor and E. europaeus, shows a strong signal of cycles of restriction to glacial refugia and postglacial expansion. Patterns of expansion, however, differ for mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and preliminary analysis of nuclear markers. In this study, we determine phylogeographic patterns in the hedgehog using two loci of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), isolated for the first time in hedgehogs. These genes show long persistence times and high polymorphism in many species because of the actions of balancing selection. Among 84 individuals screened for variation, only two DQA alleles were identified in each species, but 10 DQB alleles were found in E. concolor and six in E. europaeus. A strong effect of demography on patterns of DQB variability is observed, with only weak evidence of balancing selection. While data from mtDNA clearly subdivide both species into monophyletic subgroups, the MHC data delineate only E. concolor into distinct subgroups, supporting the preliminary findings of other nuclear markers. Together with differences in variability, this suggests that the refugia history and/or expansion patterns of E. concolor and E. europaeus differ.

Lessons in ethnonephrology

Only recently has the nephrology community moved beyond a fairly singular focus on terminal kidney failure to embrace population-based studies of earlier stages of disease, its markers and risk factors, and of interventions. Observations in developing countries, and in minority, migrant, and disadvantaged groups in westernized countries, have promoted these developments. We are only beginning to interpret renal disease in the context of public health history, social and health transitions, changing population demography, and competing mortality. Its intimate relationships to other health issues are being progressively exposed. Perspectives on the multideterminant etiology of most disease and the pedestrian nature of most risk factors are maturing. We are challenged to reconcile epidemiologic patterns with morphology in diseased renal tissue, and to consider structural markers, such as nephron number and glomerular size, as determinants of disease susceptibility. New work force models are mandated for population-based studies and intervention programs. Intervention programs need to be integrated with other chronic disease initiatives and nested in a matrix of systematic primary care, and although flexible to changing needs, must be sustained over the long term. Cross-disciplinary collaboration is essential in designing those programs, and in promoting them to health-care funders. Substantial expansion and restructuring of the discipline is needed for the nephrology community to participate effectively in those processes.

Age and growth in olive ridley seaturtles (Lepidochelys olivacea) from the north-central Pacific: a skeletochronological analysis

The olive ridley is the most abundant seaturtle species in the world but little is known of the demography of this species. We used skeletochronological data on humerus diameter growth changes to estimate the age of North Pacific olive ridley seaturtles caught incidentally by pelagic longline fisheries operating near Hawaii and from dead turtles washed ashore on the main Hawaiian Islands. Two age estimation methods [ranking, correction factor (CF)] were used and yielded age estimates ranging from 5 to 38 and 7 to 24 years, respectively. Rank age-estimates are highly correlated (r = 0.93) with straight carapace length (SCL), CF age estimates are not (r = 0.62). We consider the CF age-estimates as biologically more plausible because of the disassociation of age and size. Using the CF age-estimates, we then estimate the median age at sexual maturity to be around 13 years old (mean carapace size c. 60 cm SCL) and found that somatic growth was negligible by 15 years of age. The expected age-specific growth rate function derived using numerical differentiation suggests at least one juvenile growth spurt at about 10–12 years of age when maximum age-specific growth rates, c. 5 cm SCL year−1, are apparent.

Control of structured populations by harvest

It has long been recognized that demographic structure within a population can significantly affect the likely outcomes of harvest. Many studies have focussed on equilibrium dynamics and maximization of the value of the harvest taken. However, in some cases the management objective is to maintain the population at a abundance that is significantly below the carrying capacity. Achieving such an objective by harvest can be complicated by the presence of significant structure (age or stage) in the target population. in such cases, optimal harvest strategies must account for differences among age- or stage-classes of individuals in their relative contribution to the demography of the population. In addition, structured populations are also characterized by transient non-linear dynamics following perturbation, such that even under an equilibrium harvest, the population may exhibit significant momentum, increasing or decreasing before cessation of growth. Using simple linear time-invariant models, we show that if harvest levels are set dynamically (e.g., annually) then transient effects can be as or more important than equilibrium outcomes. We show that appropriate harvest rates can be complicated by uncertainty about the demographic structure of the population, or limited control over the structure of the harvest taken. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The diagnostic interview for psychoses (DIP): development, reliability and applications

Background. We describe the development, reliability and applications of the Diagnostic Interview for Psychoses (DIP), a comprehensive interview schedule for psychotic disorders. Method. The DIP is intended for use by interviewers with a clinical background and was designed to occupy the middle ground between fully structured, lay-administered schedules, and semi-structured., psychiatrist-administered interviews. It encompasses four main domains: (a) demographic data; (b) social functioning and disability; (c) a diagnostic module comprising symptoms, signs and past history ratings; and (d) patterns of service utilization Lind patient-perceived need for services. It generates diagnoses according to several sets of criteria using the OPCRIT computerized diagnostic algorithm and can be administered either on-screen or in a hard-copy format. Results. The DIP proved easy to use and was well accepted in the field. For the diagnostic module, inter-rater reliability was assessed on 20 cases rated by 24 clinicians: good reliability was demonstrated for both ICD-10 and DSM-III-R diagnoses. Seven cases were interviewed 2-11 weeks apart to determine test-retest reliability, with pairwise agreement of 0.8-1.0 for most items. Diagnostic validity was assessed in 10 cases, interviewed with the DIP and using the SCAN as 'gold standard': in nine cases clinical diagnoses were in agreement. Conclusions. The DIP is suitable for use in large-scale epidemiological studies of psychotic disorders. as well as in smaller Studies where time is at a premium. While the diagnostic module stands on its own, the full DIP schedule, covering demography, social functioning and service utilization makes it a versatile multi-purpose tool.

Graduate overeducation and its effects among recently arrived immigrants to Australia: A longitudinal survey

There is increasing importance attached to skill-based immigration in many countries including Australia. This paper investigates the incidences, determinants, and returns to graduate overeducation among tertiary qualified immigrants during the early phase of their settlement in Australia. We place particular emphasis on visa categories and region of origin. As expected, those on visas with higher skill requirements perform better in the labour market. The bulk of these are immigrants from English Speaking Backgrounds (ESB). Non-English Speaking Background (NESB) immigrants, on the other hand, have higher and persistent rates of overeducation. The wage returns to required and surplus education match the stylized facts of overeducation for ESB and Other NESB immigrants while Asian NESB immigrants receive no return to surplus education. Thus, the results suggest that NESB graduate immigrants are a heterogeneous group, with Asian graduate immigrants facing greater assimilation hurdles in the Australian labour market.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.

Assessing the Conservation Status and Threats to Priority Plants: a threat assessment approach and case study in South-East Queensland, Australia

bstract: During the Regional Forest Agreement (RFA) process in south-east Queensland, the conservation status of, and threats to, priority vascular plant taxa in the region was assessed. Characteristics of biology, demography and distribution were used to assess the species' intrinsic risk of extinction. In contrast, the threats to the taxa (their extrinsic risk of extinction) were assessed using a decision-support protocol for setting conservation targets for taxa lacking population viability analyses and habitat modelling data. Disturbance processes known or suspected to be adversely affecting the taxa were evaluated for their intensity, extent and time-scale. Expert opinion was used to provide much of the data and to assess the recommended protection areas. Five categories of intrinsic risk of extinction were recognised for the 105 priority taxa: critically endangered (43 taxa); endangered (29); vulnerable (21); rare (10); and presumed extinct (2). Only 6 of the 103 extant taxa were found to be adequately reserved and the majority were considered inadequately protected to survive the current regimes of threatening processes affecting them. Data were insufficient to calculate a protection target for one extant taxon. Over half of the taxa require all populations to be conserved as well as active management to alleviate threatening processes. The most common threats to particular taxa were competition from weeds or native species, inappropriate fire regimes, agricultural clearing, forestry, grazing by native or feral species, drought, urban development, illegal collection of plants, and altered hydrology. Apart from drought and competition from native species, these disturbances are largely influenced or initiated by human actions. Therefore, as well as increased protection of most of the taxa, active management interventions are necessary to reduce the effects of threatening processes and to enable the persistence of the taxa.