A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Robust parameter settings of evolutionary algorithms for the optimisation of agricultural systems models

Numerical optimisation methods are being more commonly applied to agricultural systems models, to identify the most profitable management strategies. The available optimisation algorithms are reviewed and compared, with literature and our studies identifying evolutionary algorithms (including genetic algorithms) as superior in this regard to simulated annealing, tabu search, hill-climbing, and direct-search methods. Results of a complex beef property optimisation, using a real-value genetic algorithm, are presented. The relative contributions of the range of operational options and parameters of this method are discussed, and general recommendations listed to assist practitioners applying evolutionary algorithms to the solution of agricultural systems. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of copper on the microbial community of a coral reef sponge

Marine sponges often harbour communities of symbiotic microorganisms that fulfil necessary functions for the well-being of their hosts. Microbial communities associated with the sponge Rhopaloeides odorabile were used as bioindicators far sublethal cupric ion (Cu2+) stress. A combined strategy incorporating molecular, cultivation and electron microscopy techniques was adopted to monitor changes in microbial diversity. The total density of sponge-associated bacteria and counts of the predominant cultivated symbiont (alpha -proteobacterium strain NW001) were significantly reduced in response to Cu2+ concentrations of 1.7 mug l(-1) and above after 14 days of exposure. The number of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) detected by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) decreased by 64% in sponges exposed to 223 mug l(-1) Cu2+ for 48 h and by 46% in sponges exposed to 19.4 mug l(-1) Cu2+ for 14 days. Electron microscopy was used to identify 17 predominant bacterial morphotypes, composing 47% of the total observed cells in control sponges. A reduction In the proportion of these morphotypes to 25% of observed cells was evident in sponges exposed to a Cu2+ concentration of 19.4 mug l(-1). Although the abundance of most morphotypes decreased under Cu2+ stress, three morphotypes were not reduced in numbers and a single morphotype actually increased in abundance. Bacterial numbers, as detected using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), decreased significantly after 48 h exposure to 19.4 mug l(-1) Cu2+. Archaea, which are normally prolific in R. odorabile, were not detected after exposure to a Cu2+ concentration of 19.4 mug l(-1) for 14 days, indicating that many of the microorganisms associated with R. odorabile are sensitive to free copper. Sponges exposed to a Cu2+ concentration of 223 mug l(-1) became highly necrosed after 48 h and accumulated 142 +/- 18 mg kg(-1) copper, whereas sponges exposed to 19.4 mug l(-1) Cu2+ accumulated 306 +/- 15 mg kg(-1) copper after 14 days without apoptosis or mortality. Not only do sponges have potential for monitoring elevated concentrations of heavy metals but also examining changes in their microbial symbionts is a novel and sensitive bioindicator for the assessment of pollution on important microbial communities.

Tactics at the interface: Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health managers

Over the past thirty years in Australia, there has been a recognition of the need for increasing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander participation in the management of their health services as part of the strategy to improve the poor health of Australia's indigenous peoples. The proliferation of Aboriginal Community-Controlled Health Services and the vigorous advocacy of groups such as the National Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisation have significantly contributed to this recognition. This, combined with additional management opportunities in government service, has drawn attention to difficulties in recruiting and retaining appropriately experienced Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander managers, particularly in the northern states of Australia. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal relationship between the auditory brainstem response and focal responses of auditory nerve root and cochlear nucleus during development in the tammar wallaby (Macropus eugenii)

Thirty-two pouch-young tammar wallabies were used to discover the generators of the auditory brainstem response (ABR) during development by the use of simultaneous ABR and focal brainstem recordings. A click response from the auditory nerve root (ANR) in the wallaby was recorded from postnatal day (PND) 101, when no central auditory station was functional, and coincided with the ABR, a simple positive wave. The response of the cochlear nucleus (CN) was detected from PND 110, when the ABR had developed 1 positive and 1 negative peak. The dominant component of the focal ANR response, the N-1 wave, coincided with the first half of the ABR P wave, and that of the focal CN response, the N-1 wave, coincided with the later two thirds. In older animals, the ANR response coincided with the ABR's N-1, wave, while the CN response coincided with the ABR's P-2, N-2 and P-3 waves, with its contribution to the ABR P-2 dominant. The protracted development of the marsupial auditory system which facilitated these correlations makes the tammar wallaby a particularly suitable model. Copyright (C) 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Energy expenditure during 2nd week of an ultra-endurance run around Australia

Purpose: For ultra-endurance athletes, whose energy expenditure is likely to be at the extremes of human tolerance for sustained periods of time, there is increased concern regarding meeting energy needs. Due to the lack of data outlining the energy requirements of such athletes, it is possible that those participating in ultra-endurance exercise are compromising performance, as well as health, as a result of inadequate nutrition and energy intake. To provide insight into this dilemma, we have presented a case study of a 37-yr-old ultra-marathon runner as he runs around the coast of Australia. Methods: Total energy expenditure was measured over a 2-wk period using the doubly labeled water technique. Results: The average total energy expenditure of the case subject was 6321 kcal.d(-1). Based on the expected accuracy and precision of the doubly labeled water technique the subject's total energy expenditure might range between 6095 and 6550 kcal.d(-1). The subject's average daily water turnover was 6.083 L over the 14-d period and might range between 5.9 L and 6.3 L.d(-1). Conclusions: This information will provide a guide to the energy requirements of ultra-endurance running and enable athletes, nutritionists, and coaches to optimize performance without compromising the health of the participant.

The validity of self-reported energy intake as determined using the doubly labelled water technique

In the 1980s the development of the doubly labelled water (DLW) technique made it possible to determine the validity of dietary assessment methods using external, independent markers of intake in free-living populations. Since then, the accuracy of self-reported energy intake (EI) has been questioned on a number of occasions as under-reporting has been found to be prevalent in many different populations. This paper is a review of investigations using the DLW technique in conjunction with self-reported EI measures in groups including adults, children and adolescents, obese persons, athletes, military personnel and trekking explorers. In studies where a person other than the subject is responsible for recording dietary intake, such as parents of young children, EI generally corresponds to DLW determined energy expenditure. However, in instances where the subjects themselves report their intake, EI is generally under-reported when compared with energy expenditure. It was originally believed that this phenomenon of under-reporting was linked to increased adiposity and body size, however, it is now apparent that other factors, such as dietary restraint and socio-economic status, are also involved. This paper therefore aims to present a more comprehensive picture of under-reporting by tying in the findings of many DLW studies with other studies focusing particularly on the characteristics and mechanisms for under-reporting. Awareness of these characteristics and mechanisms will enable researchers to obtain more accurate self-reports of EI using all dietary recording techniques.

Identification and total synthesis of novel fatty acids from the siphonarid limpet Siphonaria denticulata

The novel fatty acids 17-methyl-6(Z)-octadecenoic acid and 17-methyl-7(Z)-octadecenoic acid were identified for the first time in nature in the mollusk Siphonaria denticulata from Queensland, Australia. The principal fatty acids in the limpet were hexadecanoic acid, octadecanoic acid, and (Z)-9-octadecenoic acid, while the most interesting series of monounsaturated fatty acids was a family of five nonadecenoic acids with double bonds at either Delta (7), Delta (9), Delta (11), Delta (12), or Delta (13). The novel compounds were characterized using a combination of GC-MS and chemical transformations, such as dimethyl disulfide derivatization. The first total syntheses for the two novel methyl-branched nonadecenoic acids are also described, and these were accomplished in four to five steps and in high yields.

NMR imaging of water sorption into poly(hydroxyethyl methacrylate-co-tetrahydrofurfuryl methacrylate)

The diffusion of water into a series of hydroxyethyl methacrylate, HEMA, copolymers with tetrahydrofurfuryl methacrylate, THFMA, has been studied over a range of copolymer compositions using NMR imaging analyses. For polyHEMA the diffusion was found to be consistent with a Fickian model. The mass diffusion coefficient of water in polyHEMA at 37 degreesC was determined from the profiles of the diffusion front to be 1.5 x 10(-11) m(2) s(-1), which is less than the value based upon mass uptake, 2.0 x 10(-11) m(2) s(-1). The profiles of the water diffusion front obtained from the NMR images showed that stress was induced at the interface between the rubbery and glassy regions which led to formation of small cracks in this region of the glassy matrix of polyHEMA and its copolymers with mole fractions of HEMA greater than 0.6. Water was shown to be able to enter these cracks forming water pools. For copolymers of HEMA and THFMA with mole fractions of HEMA less than 0.6 the absence of cracks was attributed to the ability of the THFMA sequences to undergo stress relaxation by creep.

The radical homopolymerization of N-phenylmaleimide, N-n-hexylmaleimide and N-cyclohexylmaleimide in tetrahydrofuran

The kinetics and mechanisms of thermally initiated (using 2,2'-azobisisoburyronitrile (AIBN) as initiator) radical homopolymerizations of a series of maleimides, including N-phenymaleimide (PHMI) [l-phenyl-1H-pyrrole-2,5-dione]; N-n-hexylmaleimide (nHMI) [l-(n-hexyI)-1H-pyrrole-2,5-dione]; and N-cyclohexylmaIeimide (CHMI) [l-cyclohexyl- 1H-pyrrole-2,5-dione] have been investigated in THF solution by an on-line FT-NIR technique. It was found that the order of the activation energies for the three N-sub-MIs is: E-a PHMI < E-a (PHMI) < E-a (CHMI). The overall polymerization rate parameter k and the pre-exponential factor A were calculated. The kinetic order with respect to the N-sub-MIs was in the range of 0.71 < m < 0.75 for the initiator and n = 1.0 for the monomer. Radical transfer to solvent was found to be the key factor in determining the apparent order with respect to the initiator. All of the homopolymers had a relatively low molecular weight. The end groups of the polymer chains were characterized by MALDI-TOF, GPC and NMR methods and the results clearly indicate that the polymerization was initiated by THF radicals, and that the termination reaction is mainly controlled by chain transfer to solvent through an hydrogen abstraction mechanism. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study of the vacuum gamma-radiolysis of two aromatic polyimide fluoropolymers containing phenylphosphine oxide

The vacuum gamma -radiolysis of two fluorinated polyimides containing phenylphosphine oxide units, TOR-RC and TOR-RC ODPA, have been studied at 77 K and 300 K. The phenyl phosphine oxide units provide protection of the polymers towards oxidation by oxygen atoms and the bulky fluoromethyl groups reduce the colouration of the polymers by limiting donor-acceptor complex formation through the aromatic units. At 77 K the radicals formed were identified to be a mixture of neutral radicals (60%) and anion radicals. At 300 K only neutral radicals were found. The G-values for radical formation were found to be 0.50 and 0.42 at 77 K and 0.051 and 0.052 at 300 K for TOR-RC and TOR-RC ODPA, respectively. Little change was observed in the visible spectra of the polyimides following vacuum radiolysis at 300 K up to a dose of 3.3 MGy, and the polymers were shown to undergo net cross linking with a gel dose of 0.45 MGy.