Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of incentive reforms upon productivity: Evidence from the Vietnamese rice industry

In this study we use region-level panel data on rice production in Vietnam to investigate total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the period since reunification in 1975. Two significant reforms were introduced during this period, one in 1981 allowing farmers to keep part of their produce, and another in 1987 providing improved land tenure. We measure TFP growth using two modified forms of the standard Malmquist data envelopment analysis (DEA) method, which we have named the Three-year-window (TYW) and the Full Cumulative (FC) methods. We have developed these methods to deal with degrees of freedom limitations. Our empirical results indicate strong average TFP growth of between 3.3 and 3.5 per cent per annum, with the fastest growth observed in the period following the first reform. Our results support the assertion that incentive related issues have played a large role in the decline and subsequent resurgence of Vietnamese agriculture.

A survey of dental and oral trauma in south-east Queensland during 1998

Background: This project investigated the aetiology of dental and oral trauma in a population in southeast Queensland. The literature shows there is a lack of dental trauma studies which are representative of the general Australian population. Method: Twelve suburbs in the south-east district of Queensland were randomly selected according to population density in these suburbs for each 25th percentile. All dental clinics in these suburbs were eligible to participate. Patients presenting with dental and oral trauma were eligible to participate. Results: A total of 197 patients presented with dental/oral trauma over a 12 month period. The age of patients ranged from 1-64 years whilst the most frequently presenting age group was 6-10 years. There was a total of 363 injured teeth with an average of 1.8 injured teeth per patient. Males significantly outnumbered females in the incidence of trauma. Conclusions: The highest frequency of trauma occurred in the 6-10 year age group. Most injuries in this group occurred while playing or riding bicycles. In the next most prevalent trauma group, 16-20 years, trauma occurred as a result of fighting and playing sport. Overall, males significantly outnumbered females by approximately 1.8:1.0. The majority of injuries in the deciduous dentition were to periodontal tissues. In the secondary dentition most injuries were to hard dental tissue and pulp.

Reliability factors in business software: volatility, requirements and end-users

Many business-oriented software applications are subject to frequent changes in requirements. This paper shows that, ceteris paribus, increases in the volatility of system requirements decrease the reliability of software. Further, systems that exhibit high volatility during the development phase are likely to have lower reliability during their operational phase. In addition to the typically higher volatility of requirements, end-users who specify the requirements of business-oriented systems are usually less technically oriented than people who specify the requirements of compilers, radar tracking systems or medical equipment. Hence, the characteristics of software reliability problems for business-oriented systems are likely to differ significantly from those of more technically oriented systems.

Low-density koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in the mulgalands of south-west Queensland. I. Faecal pellet sampling protocol

Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in eastern Australia are threatened by land clearing for agricultural and urban development. At the same time, conservation efforts are hindered by a dearth of information about inland populations. Faecal deposits offer a source of information that is readily available and easily collected non-invasively. We detail a faecal pellet sampling protocol that was developed for use in a large rangeland biogeographic region. The method samples trees in belt transects, uses a thorough search at the tree base to quickly identify trees with koala pellets under them, then estimates the abundance of faecal pellets under those trees using 1-m(2) quadrats. There was a strong linear relationship between these estimates and a complete enumeration of pellet abundance under the same trees. We evaluated the accuracy of our method in detecting trees where pellets were present by means of a misclassification index that was weighed more heavily for missed trees that had high numbers of pellets under them. This showed acceptable accuracy in all landforms except riverine, where some trees with large numbers of pellets were missed. Here, accuracy in detecting pellet presence was improved by sampling with quadrats, rather than basal searches. Finally, we developed a method to reliably age pellets and demonstrate how this protocol could be used with the faecal-standing-crop method to derive a regional estimate of absolute koala abundance.

Dental erosion in asthma: A case-control study from south east Queensland

Background: Asthma medication places patients at risk of dental erosion by reducing salivary protection against extrinsic or intrinsic acids. But patterns of lesions in asthmatics may differ from patterns in non-asthmatics, because gastro-oesophageal reflux (GOR) is found in 60 per cent of asthmatics. Methods: The lesions in 44 asthma cases were compared to those of age and sex match controls with no history of asthma or medications drawn from the dental records of 423 patients referred concerning excessive tooth wear. The subjects were 70 males age range 15 to 55 years and 18 females age range 18 to 45. Anamnestic clinical data were compared between the two groups. Models of all 88 subjects were examined by light microscopy, and wear patterns were recorded on permanent central incisor, canine, premolar and first molar teeth. Results: Clinical differences were a higher incidence of tooth hypersensitivity; xerostomia, salivary gland abnormalities, gastric complaints, and self induced vomiting in the cases. No differences were found between the cases and controls on citrus fruit and acid soft drink consumption. More occlusal erosion sites were found in cases, whereas more attrition sites were found in the controls. There were no significant differences in palatal erosion on maxillary anterior teeth found between cases and controls. Lingual erosion of the mandibular incisors, found only in GOR patients, was not observed. Conclusions: A higher incidence of erosion was found in asthmatics. Gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms were not associated with the sign of lingual mandibular incisor erosion. The clinical significance is that asthmatics are at risk of dental erosion from extrinsic acid, but GOR does not appear to contribute in a site-specific manner.

Spermatozoal morphology of the freshwater anomuran Aegla longirostri Bond-Buckup & Buckup, 1994 (Crustacea : Decapoda : Aeglidae) from South America

Unique sperm morphology is described for Aegla longirostri Bond-Buckup & Buckup, 1994. a representative of the freshwater anomuran family Aeglidae from South America. Comparisons of the spermatozoal ultrastructure of this species with that described for other anomurans indicate that A. longirostri has a distinct suite of spermatozoal characters. Within the Anomura, the aeglids share more spermatozoal characters with the superfamily Lomoidea. represented by the monotypic Australian endemic genus, Lomis, than to any previously described representative from the Galatheoidea, Hippoidea. or Paguroidea. A more basal ancestry, with an independent evolutionary lineage. within the Anomura is Postulated for the Aeglidae. A Superficial resemblance of the spermatozoal ultrastructure of A. longirostri to that described for a palinurid lobster, Jasus, and a thalassinidean mud shrimp, Neaxius, is also noted.

The breeding-season diet of wedge-tailed eagles (Aquila audax) in western New South Wales and the influence of Rabbit Calicivirus Disease

A total of 2071 individual prey items were identified from 34 active and 55 inactive wedge-tailed eagle nests following the 1995, 1996 and 1997 breeding seasons. Overall, the eagle's diet was comparable to that reported in other studies within semi-arid regions, with rabbits, reptiles and macropods accounting for 47.8, 22.6 and 13.7% of prey items, respectively. In spring 1996 rabbit calicivirus moved into the study area, resulting in a 44-78% reduction in rabbit abundance (Sharp et al. 2001). An index was developed to enable the time since death for individual prey items to be approximated and a historical perspective of the eagle's diet to be constructed. Rabbits constituted 56-69% of dietary items collected during the pre-rabbit calicivirus disease (RCD) samples, but declined to 31% and 16% in the two post-RCD samples. A reciprocal trend was observed for the proportion of reptiles in the diet, which increased from 8-21% of pre-RCD dietary items to 49-54% after the advent of RCD. Similarly, the proportion of avian prey items was observed to increase in the post-RCD samples. These data suggested that prey switching may have occurred following the RCD epizootic. However, a lack of data on the relative abundances of reptiles and birds prevented an understanding of the eagle's functional responses to be developed and definitive conclusions to be drawn. Nevertheless, the eagles were observed to modify their diet to the change in rabbit densities by consuming larger quantities of native prey species.

Reciprocal relationship between methylation status and loss of heterozygosity at the p14 (ARF) locus in Australian and South African hepatocellular carcinomas

Chromosome 9p21, a locus comprising the tumor suppressor genes (TSG) p16(INK4) (a) and p14(ARF) , is a common region of loss of heterozygosity (LOH) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). p14(ARF) shares exon 2 with p16 in a different reading frame. p14 binds to MDM2 resulting in a stabilization of functional p53 . This study examined the roles of p14, p16 and p53 in hepatocarcinogenesis, in 37 Australian and 24 South African patients. LOH at 9p21 and 17p13.1, p14 and p16 mutation analysis, p14 and p16 promoter methylation and p14, p16 and p53 protein expression was examined. LOH at 9p21 was detected more frequently in South African HCC (P = 0.04). Comparable rates of p53 LOH were observed in Australian and South African HCC (10/22, 45%vs 13/22, 59%, respectively). Hypermethylation of the p14 promoter was more prevalent in Australian HCC than in South African HCC (17/37, 46%vs 7/24, 29%, respectively). In Australian HCC the prevalence of p14 methylation increased with age (P = 0.03). p16 promoter methylation was observed in 12/37 (32%) and 6/24 (25%) in Australian and South African HCC, respectively. Loss of p16 protein expression was detected in 14/36 Australian HCC whereas p53 protein expression was detected in 9/36. Significantly, a reciprocal relationship between 9p21 LOH and p14 promoter hypermethylation was observed (P less than or equal to0.05 ). No significant association between p14 and p53 was seen in this study. The reciprocal relationship identified indicates different pathways of tumorigenesis and likely reflects different etiologies of HCC in the two countries. (C) 2002 Blackwell Science Asia Pty Ltd.

Monostephanostomum georgianum n. sp (Digenea : Acanthocolpidae) from Arripis georgianus (Valenciennes) (Perciformes : Arripidae) off Kangaroo Island, South Australia, with comments on Monostephanostomum Kruse, 1979 and Stephanostomum Looss, 1899

Monostephanostomum georgianum n. sp. is described from Arripis georgianus off Kangaroo Island, South Australia. It differs from its congeners by the presence of a short second row of oral spines. M. manteri Kruse, 1979 is reported from A. georgianus off southern Western Australia and Kangaroo Island, South Australia and A. trutta off northern Tasmania. It is considered that the other two species, M. yamagutii Ramadan, 1984 and M. krusei Reimer, 1983, should probably be removed from this genus. Two new combinations are formed, M. gazzae (Shen, 1990) n. comb. (from Stephanostomum) and M. mesospinosum (Madhavi, 1976) n. comb. (from Stephanostomum). A key to the four recognised species of Monostephanostomum is given.