On the importance function in splitting simulation

The splitting method is a simulation technique for the estimation of very small probabilities. In this technique, the sample paths are split into multiple copies, at various stages in the simulation. Of vital importance to the efficiency of the method is the Importance Function (IF). This function governs the placement of the thresholds or surfaces at which the paths are split. We derive a characterisation of the optimal IF and show that for multi-dimensional models the natural choice for the IF is usually not optimal. We also show how nearly optimal splitting surfaces can be derived or simulated using reverse time analysis. Our numerical experiments illustrate that by using the optimal IF, one can obtain a significant improvement in simulation efficiency.

Lower Bounds on the State Complexity of Geometric Goppa Codes

We reinterpret the state space dimension equations for geometric Goppa codes. An easy consequence is that if deg G less than or equal to n-2/2 or deg G greater than or equal to n-2/2 + 2g then the state complexity of C-L(D, G) is equal to the Wolf bound. For deg G is an element of [n-1/2, n-3/2 + 2g], we use Clifford's theorem to give a simple lower bound on the state complexity of C-L(D, G). We then derive two further lower bounds on the state space dimensions of C-L(D, G) in terms of the gonality sequence of F/F-q. (The gonality sequence is known for many of the function fields of interest for defining geometric Goppa codes.) One of the gonality bounds uses previous results on the generalised weight hierarchy of C-L(D, G) and one follows in a straightforward way from first principles; often they are equal. For Hermitian codes both gonality bounds are equal to the DLP lower bound on state space dimensions. We conclude by using these results to calculate the DLP lower bound on state complexity for Hermitian codes.

Investigation of electrical conductivity as a function of dopant-ion radius in the systems Zr0.75Ce0.08M0.17O1.92 (M=Nd, Sm, Gd, Dy, Ho, Y, Er, Yb, Sc)

Electrical conductivity versus dopant ionic radius studies in zirconia- and ceria-based, solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) electrolyte systems have shown that oxygen-ion conductivity is highest when the host and dopant ions are similar in size [J. Am. Ceram. Soc. 48 (1965) 286; Solid State Ionics 37 (1989) 67; Solid State Ionics 5 (1981) 547]. Under these conditions, it is thought that the conduction paths within the crystal lattice become less distorted [Solid State Ionics 8 (1983) 201]. In this study, binary ZrO2-M2O3 unit cells were expanded, via the partial substitution of Ce+4 for Zr+4 into the lattice, in an attempt to identify new, ternary, zirconia/ceria-based electrolyte systems with enhanced electrical conductivity. The compositions Zr0.75Ce0.08M0.17O1.92 (M = Nd, Sm, Gd, Dy, Ho, Y, Yb, Sc) were prepared using traditional solid state techniques. Bulk phase characterisation and precise lattice parameter measurements were performed with X-ray diffraction techniques. Four-probe DC conductivity measurements between 400 and 900 degreesC showed that the dopant-ion radius influenced electrical conductivity. The conductivity versus dopant-ion radius trends previously observed in zirconia-based, binary systems are clearly apparent in the ternary systems investigated in this study. The addition of ceria was found to have a negative influence on the electrical conductivity over the temperature range 400-900 degreesC. It is suggested that distortion of the oxygen-ion conduction path by the presence of the larger M+3 and Ce+4 species (relative to Zr+4) is the reason for the decreasing electrical conductivity as a function of increasing dopant size and ceria addition, respectively. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing insect movement theory: empirical analysis of pest data routinely collected from agricultural crops

Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Corporate stadium sponsorships, signaling theory, agency conflicts, and shareholder wealth

Contrary to the plethora of critical articles recently appearing in both the popular and business press, this carefully controlled investigation of 49 stadium- and arena-naming-rights agreement announcements provides striking evidence that such sponsorships can significantly enhance the stock prices of sponsoring companies. Indeed, the results of the study show that the average stadium sponsor's stock prices increased by 1.65 percent at the time of announcement of the programs-a result considerably in excess of the returns associated with other major marketing programs such as the signing of Olympic sponsorships and celebrity endorsers. A multiple regression analysis employing firm-specific changes in stock prices as the dependent variable and quantifiable corporate and sponsorship-related attributes as independent variables is also presented. Variables positively and significantly correlated with perceived sponsorship success include team-winning percentages, contract length, and high technology and locally based companies. Overall, the findings of the study are consistent with the novel hypothesis that, for some firms, the real value-added of a stadium sponsorship may lie in its ability to serve as an effective or honest signal of managerial confidence in the future of the company.

Impact of malocclusion and orthognathic reconstruction surgery on resonance and articulatory function: an examination of variability in five cases

Articulatory patterns and nasal resonance were assessed before and 6 months after orthognathic reconstruction surgery in five patients with dentofacial deformities. Perceptual and physiological assessments showed disorders of nasality and articulatory function preoperatively, two patients being hyponasal, and one hypernasal. Four patients had mild articulatory deficits, and four had reduced maximal lip or tongue pressures. Operation resulted in different patterns of change. Nasality deteriorated in three patients and articulatory precision and intelligibility improved in only one patient and showed no change in the other four. Operation improved interlabial pressures in three patients, while its impact on tongue pressures varied, being improved in one case, deteriorating in one, and remaining unchanged in the other three. The variability in the results highlights the need for routine assessment of speech and resonance before and after orthognathic reconstruction. (C) 2002 The British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Child welfare workers' use of theory in working with physical child abuse: Implications for professional supervision

This article examines child welfare workers' understanding of physical child abuse and the Implications for those supervising these workers. The article Is based on the results of a study that involved In-depth Interviews and focus groups with statutory child welfare workers. Analysis revealed that workers' understanding of physical child abuse embodied a wide range of ideas that were generally consistent with existing literature. The study highlights the value and utility of a reflective approach In stimulating and making explicit the theoretical underpinnings of child welfare workers practice. Specific Implications for professional supervision are addressed.

Exact theory of sedimentation equilibrium made useful

The exact description of the thermodynamics of solutions has been used to describe, without approximation, the distribution of all the components of an incompressible solution in a centrifuge cell at sedimentation equilibrium. Thermodynamic parameters describing the interactions between solute components of known molar mass can be obtained by direct analysis of the experimental data. Interpretation of the measured thermodynamic parameters in terms of molecular interactions requires that an arbitrary distinction be made between nonassociative forces, like hard-sphere volume-exclusion and mean-field electrostatic repulsion or attraction, and specific short-range forces of association that give rise to the formation of molecular aggregates. Provided the former can be accounted for adequately, the effects of the latter can be elucidated in the form of good estimates of the equilibrium constants for the reactions of aggregation.

Existence of multiple solutions for second-order discrete boundary value problems

We give conditions on f involving pairs of discrete lower and discrete upper solutions which lead to the existence of at least three solutions of the discrete two-point boundary value problem yk+1 - 2yk + yk-1 + f (k, yk, vk) = 0, for k = 1,..., n - 1, y0 = 0 = yn,, where f is continuous and vk = yk - yk-1, for k = 1,..., n. In the special case f (k, t, p) = f (t) greater than or equal to 0, we give growth conditions on f and apply our general result to show the existence of three positive solutions. We give an example showing this latter result is sharp. Our results extend those of Avery and Peterson and are in the spirit of our results for the continuous analogue. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.