Marker concentration patterns of labelled leaf and stem particles in the rumen of cattle grazing bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon) analysed by reference to a raft model

Large (>1600 mum), ingestively masticated particles of bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon L. Pers.) leaf and stem labelled with Yb-169 and Ce-144 respectively were inserted into the rumen digesta raft of heifers grazing bermuda grass. The concentration of markers in digesta sampled from the raft and ventral rumen were monitored at regular intervals over approximately 144 h. The data from the two sampling sites were simultaneously fitted to two pool (raft and ventral rumen-reticulum) models with either reversible or sequential flow between the two pools. The sequential flow model fitted the data equally as well as the reversible flow model but the reversible flow model was used because of its greater application. The reversible flow model, hereafter called the raft model, had the following features: a relatively slow age-dependent transfer rate from the raft (means for a gamma 2 distributed rate parameter for leaf 0.0740 v. stem 0.0478 h(-1)), a very slow first order reversible flow from the ventral rumen to the raft (mean for leaf and stem 0.010 h(-1)) and a very rapid first order exit from the ventral rumen (mean of leaf and stem 0.44 h(-1)). The raft was calculated to occupy approximately 0.82 total rumen DM of the raft and ventral rumen pools. Fitting a sequential two pool model or a single exponential model individually to values from each of the two sampling sites yielded similar parameter values for both sites and faster rate parameters for leaf as compared with stem, in agreement with the raft model. These results were interpreted as indicating that the raft forms a large relatively inert pool within the rumen. Particles generated within the raft have difficulty escaping but once into the ventral rumen pool they escape quickly with a low probability of return to the raft. It was concluded that the raft model gave a good interpretation of the data and emphasized escape from and movement within the raft as important components of the residence time of leaf and stem particles within the rumen digesta of cattle.

Expression of asparagine synthetase in response to carbohydrate supply in model callus cultures and shoot tips of asparagus (Asparagus officinalis L.)

Sugar uptake and metabolism were studied in callus cultures and shoot tips of asparagus. Asparagus callus cultures were used to model senescence in shoot tips. Callus cultures absorbed glucose from a nutrient medium, and accumulated sucrose, glucose and fructose. This uptake of glucose by the callus cultures down-regulated expression of asparagine synthetase and beta -galactosidase transcripts that otherwise accumulated when sugar was withheld. When 80 mm-long asparagus shoots were excised from growing plants and placed in 2% and 8% sucrose solutions, endogenous concentrations of sucrose, glucose, fructose, UDPglucose, and glucose-6-phosphate declined in the 30mm-long meristematic tip regions. At the same time, asparagine and asparagine synthetase gene transcripts began to accumulate in these tips. When 10 mm-long asparagus shoot tips were placed on glucose- or fructose-containing agar, the tips accumulated sucrose, glucose and fructose, and asparagine accumulation and expression of asparagine synthetase were marginally reduced. We concluded that in callus cultures, asparagine synthetase expression was sugar regulated, but that sugar regulation was not as pronounced in asparagus shoot tips. This may be due in part to slower rates of sugar uptake into shoot tips and in part to compartmentation of sugars in the tips. We suggest that callus cultures are not a suitable model for metabolic studies in asparagus shoot tips.

Field test of a model of migration of moths (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in inland Australia

A migration of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren), Heliothis punctifera (Walker) and Agrotis munda Walker was tracked from Cameron Corner (29degrees00'S, 141degrees00'E) in inland Australia to the Wilcannia region, approximately 400 km to the south-east. A relatively isolated source population was located using a distribution model to predict winter breeding, and confirmed by surveys using sweep netting for larvae. When a synoptic weather pattern likely to produce suitable conditions for migration developed, moths were trapped in the source region. The next morning a simulation model of migration using wind-field data generated by a numerical weather-prediction model was run. Surveys using sweep netting for larvae, trapping and flush counts were then conducted in and around the predicted moth fallout area, approximately 400 km to the south-east. Pollen carried on the probosces of moths caught in this area was compared with that on moths caught in the source area. The survey data and pollen comparisons provided evidence that migration had occurred, and that the migration model gave accurate estimation of the fallout region. The ecological and economic implications of such migrations are discussed.

Macroeconomic policy in an output-expenditure model

This paper proposes an alternative framework for examining the international macroeconomic impact of domestic monetary and fiscal policies and focuses on the distinction between national spending and national production and the reactive behavior of foreign investors to changing external account balances. It demonstrates that under a floating exchange rate regime, monetary and fiscal policies can affect aggregate expenditure and output quite differently, with important implications for the behavior of the exchange rate, the current account balance, and national income in the short run, as well as the economy's price level in the long run. In particular, this paper predicts that expansionary monetary and fiscal policies tend to depreciate the currency and only temporarily raise gross domestic product and the current account surplus, although permanently raise the domestic price level. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Forty-Ninth International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 14–21, 2000, Munich, Germany.

An orthotopic xenograft model of human nonseminomatous germ cell tumour

We have established the first example of an orthotopic xenograft model of human nonseminomatous germ cell tumour (NSGCT). This reproducible model exhibits many clinically relevant features including metastases to the retroperitoneal lymph nodes and lungs, making it an ideal tool for research into the development and progression of testicular germ cell tumours.

An improved survival model of hypoxia/ischaemia in the piglet suitable for neuroprotection studies

The purpose of this study, was to develop a newborn piglet model of hypoxia/ischaemia which would better emulate the clinical situation in the asphyxiated human neonate and produce a consistent degree of histopathological injury following the insult. One-day-old piglets (n = 18) were anaesthetised with a mixture of propofol (10 mg/kg/h) and alfentinal (5,5.5 mug/kg/h) i.v. The piglets were intubated and ventilated. Physiological variables were monitored continuously. Hypoxia was induced by decreasing the inspired oxygen (FiO(2)) to 3-4% and adjusting FiO(2) to maintain the cerebral function monitor peak amplitude at less than or equal to5 muV. The duration of the mild insult was 20, min while the severe insult was 30 min which included 10 min where the blood pressure was allowed to fall below 70% of baseline. Control piglets (n=4 of 18) were subjected to the same protocol except for the hypoxic/ischaemic insult. The piglets were allowed to recover from anaesthesia then euthanased 72 It after the insult. The brains were perfusion-fixed, removed and embedded in paraffin. Coronal sections were stained by haematoxylin/eosin. A blinded observer examined the frontal and parietal cortex, hippocampus, basal ganglia, thalamus and cerebellum for the degree of damage. The total mean histology score for the five areas of the brain for the severe insult was 15.6 +/-4.4 (mean +/-S.D., n=7), whereas no damage was seen in either the mild insult (n=4) or control groups. This 'severe damage' model produces a consistent level of damage and will prove useful for examining potential neuroprotective therapies in the neonatal brain. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science BY. All rights reserved.

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of Fusobacterium nucleatum on the T and B cell responses to Porphyromonas gingivalis in a mouse model

T cell cytokine profiles and specific serum antibody levels in five groups of BALB/c mice immunized with saline alone, viable Fusobacterium nucleatum ATCC 25586, viable Porphyromonas gingivalis ATCC 33277, F. nucleatum followed by P. gingivalis and P. gingivalis followed by F nucleatum were determined. Splenic CD4 and CD8 cells were examined for intracytoplasmic interleukin (IL)-4, interferon (IFN)-gamma and IL-10 by dual colour flow cytometry and the levels of serum anti-F. nucleatum and anti-P. gingivalis antibodies determined by an ELISA. Both Th1 and Th2 responses were demonstrated by all groups, and while there were slightly lower percentages of cytokine positive T cells in mice injected with F. nucleatum alone compared with the other groups immunized with bacteria., F nucleatum had no effect on the T cell production of cytokines induced by P gingivalis in the two groups immunized with both organisms. However, the percentages of cytokine positive CD8 cells were generally significantly higher than those of the CD4 cells. Mice immunized with F nucleatum alone had high levels of serum anti-E nucleatum antibodies with very low levels of P. gingivalis antibodies, whereas mice injected with P gingivalis alone produced anti-P. gingivalis antibodies predominantly. Although the levels of anti-E nucleatum antibodies in mice injected with E nucleatum followed by P. gingivalis were the same as in mice immunized with F nucleatum alone, antibody levels to P. gingivalis were very low. In contrast, mice injected with P. gingivalis followed by F nucleatum produced equal levels of both anti-P. gingivalis and anti-F nucleatum antibodies, although at lower levels than the other three groups immunized with bacteria, respectively. Anti-Actinobacillus actitiomycetemcomitans, Bacteroides forsythus and Prevotella intermedia serum antibody levels were also determined and found to be negligible. In conclusion, F nucleatum immunization does not affect the splenic T cell cytokine response to P. gingivalis. However, F nucleatum immunization prior to that of P. gingivalis almost completely inhibited the production of anti-P gingivalis antibodies while P. gingivalis injection before F. nucleatum demonstrated a partial inhibitory effect by P. gingivalis on antibody production to F. nucleatum. The significance of these results with respect to human periodontal disease is difficult to determine. However, they may explain in part differing responses to P. gingivalis in different individuals who may or may not have had prior exposure to F. nucleatum. Finally, the results suggested that P. gingivalis and F. nucleatum do not induce the production of cross-reactive antibodies to other oral microorganisms.

The IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No 1 (ADM1)

The IWA Anaerobic Digestion Modelling Task Group was established in 1997 at the 8th World Congress on,Anaerobic Digestion (Sendai, Japan) with the goal of developing a generalised anaerobic digestion model. The structured model includes multiple steps describing biochemical as well as physicochemical processes. The biochemical steps include disintegration from homogeneous particulates to carbohydrates, proteins and lipids; extracellular hydrolysis of these particulate substrates to sugars, amino acids, and long chain fatty acids (LCFA), respectively; acidogenesis from sugars and amino acids to volatile fatty acids (VFAs) and hydrogen; acetogenesis of LCFA and VFAs to acetate; and separate methanogenesis steps from acetate and hydrogen/CO2. The physico-chemical equations describe ion association and dissociation, and gas-liquid transfer. Implemented as a differential and algebraic equation (DAE) set, there are 26 dynamic state concentration variables, and 8 implicit algebraic variables per reactor vessel or element. Implemented as differential equations (DE) only, there are 32 dynamic concentration state variables.