Australia, the United States and a 'China growing strong': managing conflict avoidance

How to deal with a rising China constitutes one of the most seminal challenges facing the ANZUS alliance since its inception a half a century ago. Australia must reconcile its geography and economic interests in Asia with its post-war strategic and historic cultural orientation towards the United States. It must succeed in this policy task without alienating either Beijing or Washington in the process. The extent to which this is achieved will shape Australia's national security posture for decades to come. Three specific components of the 'Sino-American-Australian' triangle are assessed here: the future of Taiwan, the American development of a National Missile Defence (NMD), and the interplay between Sino-American power balancing and multilateral security politics. The policy stakes for Australia and for the continued viability of ANZUS are high in all three policy areas as a new US Administration takes office in early 2001. The article concludes that Australia's best interest is served by applying deliberate modes of decisionmaking in its own relations with both China and the US and by facilitating consistent and systematic dialogue and consultations with both of those great powers on key strategic issues.

The validity of an Australian modification of the AUDIT questionnaire

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) has been used widely and is reported to be superior to conventional questionnaires in detection of current hazardous and harmful alcohol use. We assessed the validity of an Australian modification of the AUDIT (the AusAUDIT), which has been employed widely in Australian and New Zealand early intervention programmes. We used a cross-sectional study of 370 subjects from the follow-up phase of a randomized controlled trial of early intervention to reduce hazardous alcohol consumption. Scores on the AusAUDIT were compared against 12-month ICD-10 diagnoses of harmful alcohol use and dependence, as determined by the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, and against self-report of alcohol consumption exceeding Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NH&MRC) recommended limits. AusAUDIT had good internal consistency and discriminated significantly between persons meeting criteria for ICD-10 alcohol use disorders, and drinkers who did not. At currently recommended cut-off scores, AusAUDIT detected more than 85% of people meeting criteria for ICD-10 alcohol use disorders, or drinking over NH&MRC recommended limits, but its specificity was limited (29% in men, and 58% in women for drinking over NH&MRC limits). No subset of questions performed as well as the full AusAUDIT in detection of drinking problems, but the alcohol consumption items provided a reasonable screen for drinking over NH&MRC limits. We conclude that AusAUDIT is effective in detecting problematic drinking, but positive cases should be confirmed by clinical assessment. The findings illustrate the need for validation of questionnaire modifications, and the difficulty in increasing test sensitivity without reducing specificity.