Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Conspicuous males suffer higher predation risk: visual modelling and experimental evidence from lizards

Colour pattern variation is a striking and widespread phenomenon. Differential predation risk between individuals is often invoked to explain colour variation, but empirical support for this hypothesis is equivocal. We investigated differential conspicuousness and predation risk in two species of Australian rock dragons, Ctenophorus decresii and C. vadnappa. To humans, the coloration of males of these species varies between 'bright' and 'dull'. Visual modelling based on objective colour measurements and the spectral sensitivities of avian visual pigments showed that dragon colour variants are differentially conspicuous to the visual system of avian predators when viewed against the natural background. We conducted field experiments to test for differential predation risk, using plaster models of 'bright' and 'dull' males. 'Bright' models were attacked significantly more often than 'dull' models suggesting that differential conspicuousness translates to differential predation risk in the wild. We also examined the influence of natural geographical range on predation risk. Results from 22 localities suggest that predation rates vary according to whether predators are familiar with the prey species. This study is among the first to demonstrate both differential conspicuousness and differential predation risk in the wild using an experimental protocol. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Discrete element modelling of the influence of lifters on power draw of tumbling mills

Crushing and grinding are the most energy intensive part of the mineral recovery process. A major part of rock size reduction occurs in tumbling mills. Empirical models for the power draw of tumbling mills do not consider the effect of lifters. Discrete element modelling was used to investigate the effect of lifter condition on the power draw of tumbling mill. Results obtained with PFC3D code show that lifter condition will have a significant influence on the power draw and on the mode of energy consumption in the mill. Relatively high lifters will consume less power than low lifters, under otherwise identical conditions. The fraction of the power that will be consumed as friction will increase as the height of the lifters decreases. This will result in less power being used for high intensity comminution caused by the impacts. The fraction of the power that will be used to overcome frictional resistance is determined by the material's coefficient of friction. Based on the modelled results, it appears that the effective coefficient of friction for in situ mill is close to 0.1. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying discrete element modelling to vertical and horizontal shaft impact crushers

The PFC3D (particle flow code) that models the movement and interaction of particles by the DEM techniques was employed to simulate the particle movement and to calculate the velocity and energy distribution of collision in two types of impact crusher: the Canica vertical shaft crusher and the BJD horizontal shaft swing hammer mill. The distribution of collision energies was then converted into a product size distribution for a particular ore type using JKMRC impact breakage test data. Experimental data of the Canica VSI crusher treating quarry and the BJD hammer mill treating coal were used to verify the DEM simulation results. Upon the DEM procedures being validated, a detailed simulation study was conducted to investigate the effects of the machine design and operational conditions on velocity and energy distributions of collision inside the milling chamber and on the particle breakage behaviour. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the size of the crushed zone around a blasthole

A new model to predict the extent of crushing around a blasthole is presented. The model is based on the back-analysis of a comprehensive experimental program that included the direct measurement of the zone of crushing from 92 blasting tests on concrete blocks using two commercial explosives. The concrete blocks varied from low, medium to high strength and measured 1.5 in in length, 1.0 m in width and 1.1 m in height. A dimensionless parameter called the crushing zone index (CZI) is introduced. This index measures the crushing potential of a charged blasthole and is a function of the borehole pressure, the unconfined compressive strength of the rock material, dynamic Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. It is shown that the radius of crushing is a function of the CZI and the blasthole radius. A good correlation between the new model and measured results was obtained. A number of previously proposed models could not approximate the conditions measured in the experimental work and there are noted discrepancies between the different approaches reviewed, particularly for smaller diameter holes and low strength rock conditions. The new model has been verified with full scale tests reported in the literature. Results from this validation and model evaluations show its applicability to production blasting. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discrete element modelling of power draw of tumbling mills

The power required to operate large mills is typically 5-10 MW. Hence, optimisation of power consumption will have a significant impact on overall economic performance and environmental impact. Power draw modelling results using the discrete element code PFC3D have been compared with results derived from the widely used empirical Model of Morrell. This is achieved by calculating the power draw for a range of operating conditions for constant mill size and fill factor using two modelling approaches. fThe discrete element modelling results show that, apart from density, selection of the appropriate material damping ratio is critical for the accuracy of modelling of the mill power draw. The relative insensitivity of the power draw to the material stiffness allows selection of moderate stiffness values, which result in acceptable computation time. The results obtained confirm that modelling of the power draw for a vertical slice of the mill, of thickness 20% of the mill length, is a reliable substitute for modelling the full mill. The power draw predictions from PFC3D show good agreement with those obtained using the empirical model. Due to its inherent flexibility, power draw modelling using PFC3D appears to be a viable and attractive alternative to empirical models where necessary code and computer power are available.

A structural basis for the selection of dominant alpha beta T cell receptors in antiviral immunity

We have examined the basis for immunodominant or public TCR usage in an antiviral CTL response. Residues encoded by each of the highly selected genetic elements of an immunodominant clonotype recognizing Epstein-Barr virus were critical to the antigen specificity of the receptor. Upon recognizing antigen the immunodominant TCR undergoes extensive conformational changes in the complementarity determining regions (CDRs), including the disruption of the canonical structures of the germline-encoded CDR1alpha and CDR2alpha loops to produce an enhanced fit with the HLA-peptide complex. TCR ligation induces conformational changes in the TCRalpha constant domain thought to form part of the docking site for CD3epsilon. These findings indicate that TCR immunodominance is associated with structural properties conferring receptor specificity and suggest a novel structural link between TCR ligation and intracellular signaling.

A partial velocity approach to subcycling structural dynamics

Subcycling, or the use of different timesteps at different nodes, can be an effective way of improving the computational efficiency of explicit transient dynamic structural solutions. The method that has been most widely adopted uses a nodal partition. extending the central difference method, in which small timestep updates are performed interpolating on the displacement at neighbouring large timestep nodes. This approach leads to narrow bands of unstable timesteps or statistical stability. It also can be in error due to lack of momentum conservation on the timestep interface. The author has previously proposed energy conserving algorithms that avoid the first problem of statistical stability. However, these sacrifice accuracy to achieve stability. An approach to conserve momentum on an element interface by adding partial velocities is considered here. Applied to extend the central difference method. this approach is simple. and has accuracy advantages. The method can be programmed by summing impulses of internal forces, evaluated using local element timesteps, in order to predict a velocity change at a node. However, it is still only statistically stable, so an adaptive timestep size is needed to monitor accuracy and to be adjusted if necessary. By replacing the central difference method with the explicit generalized alpha method. it is possible to gain stability by dissipating the high frequency response that leads to stability problems. However. coding the algorithm is less elegant, as the response depends on previous partial accelerations. Extension to implicit integration, is shown to be impractical due to the neglect of remote effects of internal forces acting across a timestep interface. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Physicochemical and structural characterization of mesoporous aluminosilicates synthesized from leached saponite with additional aluminum incorporation

A thorough investigation was performed on the physical (mechanical, thermal, and hydrothermal stability) and chemical (ion exchange capacity and silanol number) characteristics of aluminosilicate FSMs, synthesized via a new successful short-time synthesis route using leached saponite and a low concentration of CTAB. Moreover, the influence of an additional Al incorporation, utilizing different aluminum sources, on the structure of the FSM derived from saponite is studied. A mesoporous aluminosilicate with a low Si/Al ratio of 12.8 is synthesized, and still has a very large surface area of 1130 m(2)/g and pore volume of 0.92 cm(3)/g. The aluminum-containing samples all have a high cation exchange capacity of around 1 mmol/9 while they still have a silanol number of about 0.9 OH/nm(2); both characteristics being interesting for high-yield postsynthesis modification reactions. Finally, a study is performed on the transformation of the aluminosilicates into their Bronsted acid form via the exchange with ammonium ions and a consecutive heat treatment.

Impacts of structural characteristics on activated sludge floc stability

Activated sludge samples from seven full-scale plants were investigated in order to determine the relationship between floc structure and floc stability. Floc stability was determined by shear sensitivity and floc strength. Floc structure was considered in terms of two size scales, the micro- and macrostructure. The microstructure refers to the organization of the floc components, such as the individual microorganisms. The macrostructure refers to the overall floc. The floc macrostructure was characterized by filament index, sludge volume index, size, and fractal dimension. It had a significant impact on floc stability. Large and open floes with low fractal dimensions containing large number of filaments were more shear sensitive and had lower floc strength compared to small and dense floes. Fluorescent in situ hybridization analysis indicated that the organization of the bacterial cells might also have an effect on the floc stability. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Insights into the structural basis for zinc inhibition of the glycine receptor

Histidines 107 and 109 in the glycine receptor ( GlyR) alpha(1) subunit have previously been identified as determinants of the inhibitory zinc-binding site. Based on modeling of the GlyR alpha(1) subunit extracellular domain by homology to the acetylcholine-binding protein crystal structure, we hypothesized that inhibitory zinc is bound within the vestibule lumen at subunit interfaces, where it is ligated by His(107) from one subunit and His(109) from an adjacent subunit. This was tested by co-expressing alpha(1) subunits containing the H107A mutation with alpha(1) subunits containing the H109A mutation. Although sensitivity to zinc inhibition is markedly reduced when either mutation is individually incorporated into all five subunits, the GlyRs formed by the co-expression of H107A mutant subunits with H109A mutant subunits exhibited an inhibitory zinc sensitivity similar to that of the wild type alpha(1) homomeric GlyR. This constitutes strong evidence that inhibitory zinc is coordinated at the interface between adjacent alpha(1) subunits. No evidence was found for beta subunit involvement in the coordination of inhibitory zinc, indicating that a maximum of two zinc-binding sites per alpha(1)beta receptor is sufficient for maximal zinc inhibition. Our data also show that two zinc-binding sites are sufficient for significant inhibition of alpha(1) homomers. The binding of zinc at the interface between adjacent alpha(1) subunits could restrict intersubunit movements, providing a feasible mechanism for the inhibition of channel activation by zinc.

Structural characterization of respiratory syncytial virus fusion inhibitor escape mutants: homology model of the F protein and a syncytium formation assay

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a ubiquitous human pathogen and the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections in infants. Infection of cells and subsequent formation of syncytia occur through membrane fusion mediated by the RSV fusion protein (RSV-F). A novel in vitro assay of recombinant RSV-F function has been devised and used to characterize a number of escape mutants for three known inhibitors of RSV-F that have been isolated. Homology modeling of the RSV-F structure has been carried out on the basis of a chimera derived from the crystal structures of the RSV-F core and a fragment from the orthologous fusion protein from Newcastle disease virus (NDV). The structure correlates well with the appearance of RSV-F in electron micrographs, and the residues identified as contributing to specific binding sites for several monoclonal antibodies are arranged in appropriate solvent-accessible clusters. The positions of the characterized resistance mutants in the model structure identify two promising regions for the design of fusion inhibitors. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Structural refinement of systems specified in object-z and CSP

This paper is concerned with methods for refinement of specifications written using a combination of Object-Z and CSP. Such a combination has proved to be a suitable vehicle for specifying complex systems which involve state and behaviour, and several proposals exist for integrating these two languages. The basis of the integration in this paper is a semantics of Object-Z classes identical to CSP processes. This allows classes specified in Object-Z to be combined using CSP operators. It has been shown that this semantic model allows state-based refinement relations to be used on the Object-Z components in an integrated Object-Z/CSP specification. However, the current refinement methodology does not allow the structure of a specification to be changed in a refinement, whereas a full methodology would, for example, allow concurrency to be introduced during the development life-cycle. In this paper, we tackle these concerns and discuss refinements of specifications written using Object-Z and CSP where we change the structure of the specification when performing the refinement. In particular, we develop a set of structural simulation rules which allow single components to be refined to more complex specifications involving CSP operators. The soundness of these rules is verified against the common semantic model and they are illustrated via a number of examples.