Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Farm exposures, parental occupation, and risk of Ewing's sarcoma in Australia: a national case-control study

Objective: It has been suggested that parental occupation, particularly farming, increased the risk of Ewing's sarcoma in the offspring. In a national case-control study we examined the relationship between farm and other parental occupational exposures and the risk of cancer in the offspring. Methods: Cases were 106 persons with confirmed Ewing's sarcoma or peripheral primitive neuroectodermal tumor. Population-based controls (344) were selected randomly via telephone. Information was collected by interview (84% face-to-face). Results: We found an excess of case mothers who worked on farms at conception and/or pregnancy (odds ratio (OR) = 2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5-12.0) and a slightly smaller excess of farming fathers; more case mothers usually worked as laborers, machine operators, or drivers (OR = 1.8, 95% CI 0.9-3.9). Risk doubled for those whose mothers handled pesticides and insecticides, or fathers who handled solvents and glues, and oils and greases. Further, more cases lived on farms (OR = 1.6, 95% CI 0.9-2.8). In the 0-20 years group, the risk doubled for those who ever lived on a farm (OR = 2.0, 95% CI 1.0-3.9), and more than tripled for those with farming fathers at conception and/or pregnancy (OR = 3.5, 95% CI 1.0-11.9). Conclusions: Our data support the general hypothesis of an association of Ewing's sarcoma family of tumors with farming, particularly at younger ages, who represent the bulk of cases, and are more likely to share etiologic factors.

Behavioural responses of two native Australian fish species (Melanotaenia duboulayi and Pseudomugil signifer) to introduced poeciliids (Gambusia holbrooki and Xiphophorus helleri) in controlled conditions

Experimental treatments to compare behavioural responses included native fish species only, natives plus one exotic species and natives plus both exotic species. The mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki frequently attacked both native species, but tended to nip Melanotaenia duboulayi (especially small individuals) and chase Pseudomugil signifer The frequency of attacks by G. holbrooki on M. duboulayi rose when all four fish species were present. When food was added, all four species showed a strong increase in aggression, especially in the four-species treatment, where there were significant increases in the frequency of attacks by the swordtail Xiphophorus helleri on M. duboulay and by M. duboulayi on G. holbrooki, and of conspecific attacks by M. duboulayi. Increased attack frequency was associated with aggregation closer to the water's surface, regardless of the presence of food. The results support the hypothesis that introduced poeciliids can have deleterious competitive effects on native species. However, while juvenile M. duboulayi were particularly vulnerable to the secondary, effects of fin-nipping, R signifer appeared to be more susceptible to physical displacement and reduced food capture success.

Growth hormone regulates osteogenic marker mRNA expression in human periodontal fibroblasts and alveolar bone-derived cells

Background: Growth hormone (GH) is a potent regulator of bone formation. The proposed mechanism of GH action is through the stimulation of osteogenic precursor Cell proliferation and, following clonal expansion of these cells. promotion of differentiation along the osteogenic lineage. Objectives: We tested this hypothesis by studying the effects of GH on primary cell populations of human periodontal ligament cells (PLC) and alveolar bone cells (ABC), which contain a spectrum of osteogenic precursors. Method: The cell populations were assessed for mineralization potential after long-term culture in media containing beta-glycerophosphate and ascorbic acid, by the demonstration of mineral deposition by Von Kossa staining. The proliferative response of the cells to GH was determined over a 48-h period using a crystal violet dye-binding assay. The profile of the cells in terms of osteogcnic marker expression was established using quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for alkaline phosphatase (ALP), osteopontin. osteocalcin, bone sialoprotein (BSP), as well as the bone morphogenetic proteins BMP-2, BMP-4 and BMP-7. Results: As expected, a variety of responses were observed ranging from no mineralization in the PLC populations to dense mineralized deposition observed in one GH-treated ABC population. Over a 48-h period GH was found to be non-mitogenic for all cell populations. Quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) BSP mRNA expression correlated well with mineralizing potential of the cells. The change in the mRNA expression of the osteogenic markers was determined following GH treatment of the cells over a 48-h period. GH caused an increase in ALP in most cell populations, and also in BMP expression in some cell populations. However a decrease in BSP. osteocalcin and osteopontin expression in the more highly differentiated cell populations was observed in response to GH. Conclusion: The response of the cells indicates that while long-term treatment with GH may promote mineralization, short-term treatment does not promote proliferation of osteoblast precursors nor induce expression of late osteogenic markers.

Short-term autocorrelation in Australian equities

This paper examines the statistical and economic significance of short-term autocorrelation in Australian equities. We document large negative first-order autocorrelation in individual stock returns. Preliminary results suggest this autocorrelation is economically significant, as two simple trading strategies based on the autocorrelation structure appear to yield large risk-adjusted returns. Further analysis, however, shows that these results are driven by the inclusion of small-capitalisation and low-priced stocks which are vulnerable to a number of market-microstructure-related problems. After revising the dataset to mitigate these problems, little evidence of economic significance remains.

Species richness in agamid lizards: chance, body size, sexual selection or ecology?

Why does species richness vary so greatly across lineages? Traditionally, variation in species richness has been attributed to deterministic processes, although it is equally plausible that it may result from purely stochastic processes. We show that, based on the best available phylogenetic hypothesis, the pattern of cladogenesis among agamid lizards is not consistent with a random model, with some lineages having more species, and others fewer species, than expected by chance. We then use phylogenetic comparative methods to test six types of deterministic explanation for variation in species richness: body size, life history, sexual selection, ecological generalism, range size and latitude. Of eight variables we tested, only sexual size dimorphism and sexual dichromatism predicted species richness. Increases in species richness are associated with increases in sexual dichromatism but reductions in sexual size dimorphism. Consistent with recent comparative studies, we find no evidence that species richness is associated with small body size or high fecundity. Equally, we find no evidence that species richness covaries with ecological generalism, latitude or range size.

Testing the link between the latitudinal gradient in species richness and rates of molecular evolution

Numerous hypotheses have been proposed to explain latitudinal gradients in species richness, but all are subject to ongoing debate. Here we examine Rohde's (1978, 1992) hypothesis, which proposes that climatic conditions at low latitudes lead to elevated rates of speciation. This hypothesis predicts that rates of molecular evolution should increase towards lower latitudes, but this prediction has never been tested. We discuss potential links between rates of molecular evolution and latitudinal diversity gradients, and present the first test of latitudinal variation in rates of molecular evolution. Using 45 phylogenetically independent, latitudinally separated pairs of bird species and higher taxa, we compare rates of evolution of two mitochondrial genes and DNA-DNA hybridization distances. We find no support for an effect of latitude on rate of molecular evolution. This result casts doubt on the generality of a key component of Rohde's hypothesis linking climate and speciation.

"Owned by...". Country of origin's new cue

This study identifies and explores a new country of origin (COO) cue, “owned by….” The importance of three extrinsic cues “owned by …,” “made in …” and price was examined using conjoint analysis. Data were collected from a sample of 268 undergraduate students familiar with color televisions. Segments were formed using cluster analysis and analyzed using multiple discriminant analysis. “Owned by …” was found to be important and distinct from the “made in …” cue. Segments based on the two COO cues were identified using importance weights and individual utilities. When segments were formed using individual utilities the individual difference construct, economic nationalism, provided discriminatory power while consumer ethnocentrism did not, supporting the hypothesis that economic nationalism and consumer ethnocentrism differ. Practitioners can now use “owned by …” knowing that it forms an important and distinct marketing tool. Limitations and future research are discussed.

Conspicuous males suffer higher predation risk: visual modelling and experimental evidence from lizards

Colour pattern variation is a striking and widespread phenomenon. Differential predation risk between individuals is often invoked to explain colour variation, but empirical support for this hypothesis is equivocal. We investigated differential conspicuousness and predation risk in two species of Australian rock dragons, Ctenophorus decresii and C. vadnappa. To humans, the coloration of males of these species varies between 'bright' and 'dull'. Visual modelling based on objective colour measurements and the spectral sensitivities of avian visual pigments showed that dragon colour variants are differentially conspicuous to the visual system of avian predators when viewed against the natural background. We conducted field experiments to test for differential predation risk, using plaster models of 'bright' and 'dull' males. 'Bright' models were attacked significantly more often than 'dull' models suggesting that differential conspicuousness translates to differential predation risk in the wild. We also examined the influence of natural geographical range on predation risk. Results from 22 localities suggest that predation rates vary according to whether predators are familiar with the prey species. This study is among the first to demonstrate both differential conspicuousness and differential predation risk in the wild using an experimental protocol. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Divorce, dispersal and incest avoidance in the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus

1. Between 1988 and 2001, we studied social relationships in the superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus (Latham), a cooperative breeder with male helpers in which extra-group fertilizations are more common than within-pair fertilizations. 2. Unlike other fairy-wren species, females never bred on their natal territory. First-year females dispersed either directly from their natal territory to a breeding vacancy or to a foreign 'staging-post' territory where they spent their first winter as a subordinate. Females dispersing to a foreign territory settled in larger groups. Females on foreign territories inherited the territory if the dominant female died, and were sometimes able to split the territory into two by pairing with a helper male. However, most dispersed again to obtain a vacancy. 3. Females dispersing from a staging post usually gained a neighbouring vacancy, but females gaining a vacancy directly from their natal territory travelled further, perhaps to avoid pairing or mating with related males. 4. Females frequently divorced their partner, although the majority of relationships were terminated by the death of one of the pair. If death did not intervene, one-third of pairings were terminated by female-initiated divorce within 1000 days. 5. Three divorce syndromes were recognized. First, females that failed to obtain a preferred territory moved to territories with more helpers. Secondly, females that became paired to their sons when their partner died usually divorced away from them. Thirdly, females that have been in a long relationship divorce once a son has gained the senior helper position. 6. Dispersal to avoid pairing with sons is consistent with incest avoidance. However, there may be two additional benefits. Mothers do not mate with their sons, so dispersal by the mother liberates her sons to compete for within-group matings. Further, divorcing once their son has become a breeder or a senior helper allows the female to start sons in a queue for dominance on another territory. Females that do not take this option face constraints on their ability to recruit more sons into the local neighbourhood.

New Zealand climate in the Neogene and implications for global atmospheric circulation

New Zealand has a good Neogene plant fossil record. During the Miocene it was without high topography and it was highly maritime, meaning that its climate, and the resulting vegetation, would be controlled dominantly by zonal climate conditions. Its vegetation record during this time suggests the climate passed from an ever-wet and cool but frostless phase in the Early Miocene in which Nothofagus subgenus Brassospora was prominent. Then it became seasonally dry, with vegetation in which palms and Eucalyptus were prominent and fires were frequent, and in the mid-Miocene, it developed a dry-climate vegetation dominated by Casuarinaceae. These changes are reflected in a sedimentological change from acidic to alkaline chemistry and the appearance of regular charcoal in the record. The vegetation then changed again to include a prominent herb component including Chenopodiaceae and Asteraceae. Sphagnum became prominent, and Nothofagus returned, but mainly as the subgenus Fuscospora (presently restricted to temperate climates). This is interpreted as a return to a generally wet, but now cold climate, in which outbreaks of cold polar air and frost were frequent. The transient drying out of a small maritime island and the accompanying vegetation/climate sequence could be explained by a higher frequency of the Sub-Tropical High Pressure (STHP) cells (the descending limbs of the Hadley cells) over New Zealand during the Miocene. This may have resulted from an increased frequency of 'blocking', a synoptic situation which occurs in the region today. An alternative hypothesis, that the global STHP belt lay at a significantly higher latitude in the early Neogene (perhaps 55degreesS) than today (about 30degreesS), is considered less likely because of physical constraints on STHP belt latitude. In either case, the difference between the early Neogene and present situation may have been a response to an increased polar-equatorial temperature gradient. This contrasts with current climate models for the geological past in which the latitude of the High Pressure belt impact is held invariant though geological time. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Testosterone is correlated with courtship but not aggression in the tropical buff-banded rail, Gallirallus philippensis

Past studies into the roles of testosterone in birds have focused on species that occur in temperate regions. In such species, plasma testosterone levels are high during the establishment of territories in the spring and are associated with increased aggression. In contrast to most temperate species, tropical birds frequently defend territories year-round, during which time territoriality often occurs in a nonsexual context. The few studies that have been carried out on tropical birds show lower levels of circulating testosterone than occur in their temperate counterparts. In some year-round territorial tropical species, testosterone and aggression are dissociated, while in other species testosterone still plays a role in regulating aggression. This study examined the relationship between aggression and plasma testosterone levels in a year-round territorial, subtropical population of the buff-banded rail with characteristics typical of tropical species. Peak testosterone levels were substantially lower than those found in temperate species. Males displayed a seasonal peak in plasma testosterone level when their partners were most likely to be fertile. At other times, testosterone levels were mostly undetectable, despite year-round territoriality. We found that T levels increased with courtship behavior but showed no relationship with aggression, supporting the hypothesis that dissociation between testosterone and territoriality may be widespread among tropical avian taxa. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.