On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Structural refinement of systems specified in object-z and CSP

This paper is concerned with methods for refinement of specifications written using a combination of Object-Z and CSP. Such a combination has proved to be a suitable vehicle for specifying complex systems which involve state and behaviour, and several proposals exist for integrating these two languages. The basis of the integration in this paper is a semantics of Object-Z classes identical to CSP processes. This allows classes specified in Object-Z to be combined using CSP operators. It has been shown that this semantic model allows state-based refinement relations to be used on the Object-Z components in an integrated Object-Z/CSP specification. However, the current refinement methodology does not allow the structure of a specification to be changed in a refinement, whereas a full methodology would, for example, allow concurrency to be introduced during the development life-cycle. In this paper, we tackle these concerns and discuss refinements of specifications written using Object-Z and CSP where we change the structure of the specification when performing the refinement. In particular, we develop a set of structural simulation rules which allow single components to be refined to more complex specifications involving CSP operators. The soundness of these rules is verified against the common semantic model and they are illustrated via a number of examples.

Field hydraulic properties of an Alfisol under various fallow systems in southwestern Nigeria

The effects of various fallow management systems and cropping intensities on water infiltration were measured on an Alfisol at Ibadan in southwestern Nigeria. The objective was to determine the influence of the land use systems (a combination of crop-fallow sequences and intercropping types) on soil hydraulic properties obtained by disc permeameter and double-ring infiltration measurements. The experiment was established in 1989 as a split-plot design with four replications. The main plots were natural fallow, planted Pueraria phaseoloides and planted Leucaena leucocephala. The subplots were 1 year of maize/cassava intercrop followed by 3-year fallow (25% cropping intensity), or 2-year fallow (33% cropping intensity), or 1-year fallow (50% cropping intensity), or no fallow period (100% cropping intensity). Water infiltration rates and sorptivities were measured under saturated and unsaturated flow. Irrespective of land use, infiltration rates at the soil surface (121-324 cm h(-1)) were greater than those measured at 30 cm depth (55-144 cm h(-1)). This indicated that fewer large pores were present below 30 cm depth compared with 0-30 cm, depth. Despite some temporal variation, sorptivities with the highest mean value of 93.5 cm h(-1/2) increased as the cropping intensity decreased, suggesting a more continuous macropore system under less intensive land use systems. This was most likely due to continuous biopores created by perennial vegetation under long fallow systems. Intercropped maize and cassava yields also increased as cropping intensity decreased. The weak relationship between crop yields and hydraulic conductivity/infiltration rates suggests that the rates were not limiting.

Method for determining the shear stress in cylindrical systems

We develop a method for determining the elements of the pressure tensor at a radius r in a cylindrically symmetric system, analogous to the so-called method of planes used in planar systems [B. D. Todd, Denis J. Evans, and Peter J. Daivis, Phys. Rev. E 52, 1627 (1995)]. We demonstrate its application in determining the radial shear stress dependence during molecular dynamics simulations of the forced flow of methane in cylindrical silica mesopores. Such expressions are useful for the examination of constitutive relations in the context of transport in confined systems.