Body size and risk of extinction in Australian mammals

The link between body size and risk of extinction has been the focus of much recent attention. For Australian terrestrial mammals this link is of particular interest because it is widely believed that species in the intermediate size range of 35-5500 g (the critical weight range) have been the most prone to recent extinction. But the relationship between body size and extinction risk in Australian mammals has never been subject to a robust statistical analysis. Using a combination of randomization tests and phylogenetic comparative analyses, we found that Australian mammal extinctions and declines have been nonrandom with respect to body size, but we reject the hypothesis of a critical weight range at intermediate sizes. Small species appear to be the least prone to extinction, but extinctions have not been significantly clustered around intermediate sizes. Our results suggest that hypotheses linking intermediate body size with high risk of extinction in Australian mammals are misguided and that the focus of future research should shift to explaining why the smallest species are the most resistant to extinction.

Service guarantees: A strategic mechanism to minimise customers' perceived risk in service organisations

Service offerings are largely intangible in nature. Customers are thus unable to assess the purchase outcome prior to experience, rendering the risk of possible customer dissatisfaction very high. It is argued that the concept of service guarantees proposed by services management theory can be effectively utilised to reduce the perceived risk of dissatisfaction for the customer in service organisations. Additionally, it is suggested that service guarantees force management to undertake activities which elevate the superiority of the organisation in the eyes of the customer and, thus, the opportunity to transform one-time customers into loyal ones. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to illustrate how customers’ behavioural intentions can be influenced by the use of a service guarantee; and second, to outline a systematic process that can help service business managers to develop and implement an effective service guarantee. This research highlights the numerous benefits available to service organisations by utilising the service guarantee as a strategic tool. Some of the important management implications are also outlined.

Determination of breeding strategies for beef cattle bull breeders selling bulls into two competing markets on a non-linear price grid

Computer simulation was used to suggest potential selection strategies for beef cattle breeders with different mixes of clients between two potential markets. The traditional market paid on the basis of carcass weight (CWT), while a new market considered marbling grade in addition to CWT as a basis for payment. Both markets instituted discounts for CWT in excess of 340 kg and light carcasses below 300 kg. Herds were simulated for each price category on the carcass weight grid for the new market. This enabled the establishment of phenotypic relationships among the traits examined [CWT, percent intramuscular fat (IMF), carcass value in the traditional market, carcass value in the new market, and the expected proportion of progeny in elite price cells in the new market pricing grid]. The appropriateness of breeding goals was assessed on the basis of client satisfaction. Satisfaction was determined by the equitable distribution of available stock between markets combined with the assessment of the utility of the animal within the market to which it was assigned. The best goal for breeders with predominantly traditional clients was a CWT in excess of 330 kg, while that for breeders with predominantly new market clients was a CWT of between 310 and 329 kg and with a marbling grade of AAA in the Ontario carcass pricing system. For breeders who wished to satisfy both new and traditional clients, the optimal CWT was 310-329 kg and the optimal marbling grade was AA-AAA. This combination resulted in satisfaction levels of greater than 75% among clients, regardless of the distribution of the clients between the traditional and new marketplaces.

Habitat complexity, spatial interference, and "minimum risk distribution": a framework for population stability

In the past century, the debate over whether or not density-dependent factors regulate populations has generally focused on changes in mean population density, ignoring the spatial variance around the mean as unimportant noise. In an attempt to provide a different framework for understanding population dynamics based on individual fitness, this paper discusses the crucial role of spatial variability itself on the stability of insect populations. The advantages of this method are the following: (1) it is founded on evolutionary principles rather than post hoc assumptions; (2) it erects hypotheses that can be tested; and (3) it links disparate ecological schools, including spatial dynamics, behavioral ecology, preference-performance, and plant apparency into an overall framework. At the core of this framework, habitat complexity governs insect spatial variance. which in turn determines population stability. First, the minimum risk distribution (MRD) is defined as the spatial distribution of individuals that results in the minimum number of premature deaths in a population given the distribution of mortality risk in the habitat (and, therefore, leading to maximized population growth). The greater the divergence of actual spatial patterns of individuals from the MRD, the greater the reduction of population growth and size from high, unstable levels. Then, based on extensive data from 29 populations of the processionary caterpillar, Ochrogaster lunifer, four steps are used to test the effect of habitat interference on population growth rates. (1) The costs (increasing the risk of scramble competition) and benefits (decreasing the risk of inverse density-dependent predation) of egg and larval aggregation are quantified. (2) These costs and benefits, along with the distribution of resources, are used to construct the MRD for each habitat. (3) The MRD is used as a benchmark against which the actual spatial pattern of individuals is compared. The degree of divergence of the actual spatial pattern from the MRD is quantified for each of the 29 habitats. (4) Finally, indices of habitat complexity are used to provide highly accurate predictions of spatial divergence from the MRD, showing that habitat interference reduces population growth rates from high, unstable levels. The reason for the divergence appears to be that high levels of background vegetation (vegetation other than host plants) interfere with female host-searching behavior. This leads to a spatial distribution of egg batches with high mortality risk, and therefore lower population growth. Knowledge of the MRD in other species should be a highly effective means of predicting trends in population dynamics. Species with high divergence between their actual spatial distribution and their MRD may display relatively stable dynamics at low population levels. In contrast, species with low divergence should experience high levels of intragenerational population growth leading to frequent habitat-wide outbreaks and unstable dynamics in the long term. Six hypotheses, erected under the framework of spatial interference, are discussed, and future tests are suggested.

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A risk-based system to penalize and reward line management for occupational safety and health performance

Penalizing line management for the occurrence of lost time injuries has in some cases had unintended negative consequences. These are discussed. An alternative system is suggested that penalizes line management for accidents where the combination of the probability of recurrence and the maximum reasonable consequences such a recurrence may have exceeds an agreed limit. A reward is given for prompt effective control of the risk to below the agreed risk limit. The reward is smaller than the penalty. High-risk accidents require independent investigation by a safety officer using analytical techniques. Two case examples are given to illustrate the system. Continuous safety improvement is driven by a planned reduction in the agreed risk limit over time and reward for proactive risk assessment and control.

The design of hazard risk assessment matrices for ranking occupational health risks and their application in mining and minerals processing

Two hazard risk assessment matrices for the ranking of occupational health risks are described. The qualitative matrix uses qualitative measures of probability and consequence to determine risk assessment codes for hazard-disease combinations. A walk-through survey of an underground metalliferous mine and concentrator is used to demonstrate how the qualitative matrix can be applied to determine priorities for the control of occupational health hazards. The semi-quantitative matrix uses attributable risk as a quantitative measure of probability and uses qualitative measures of consequence. A practical application of this matrix is the determination of occupational health priorities using existing epidemiological studies. Calculated attributable risks from epidemiological studies of hazard-disease combinations in mining and minerals processing are used as examples. These historic response data do not reflect the risks associated with current exposures. A method using current exposure data, known exposure-response relationships and the semi-quantitative matrix is proposed for more accurate and current risk rankings.

The progesterone receptor exon 4 Va1660Leu G/T polymorphism and risk of breast cancer in Australian women

An Alu insertion polymorphism of the progesterone receptor (PR) was reported recently to be associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer, with risks of 0.8- and 0.3-fold associated with the heterozygote and homozygote genotypes, respectively. This intronic variant is considered to be in linkage disequilibrium with an exon 4 hinge region G to T Val660Leu polymorphism. We investigated whether the exon 4 PR polymorphism was associated with breast cancer in Australian women, using a population-based study of 1452 cases and 793 controls, half of whom were

The BRCA2 372 HH genotype is associated with risk of breast cancer in Australian women under age 60 years

The BRCA2 N372H nonconservative amino acid substitution polymorphism appears to affect fetal survival in a sex-dependent manner, and the HH genotype was found to be associated with a 1.3-fold risk of breast cancer from pooling five case-control studies of Northern European women. We investigated whether the BR 2 N372H polymorphism was associated with breast cancer in Australian women using a population-based case-control design. The BRCA2 372 genotype was determined in 1397 cases under the age of 60 years at diagnosis of a first primary breast cancer and in 775 population-sampled controls frequency matched for age. Case-control analyses and comparisons of genotype distributions were conducted using logistic regression. All of the statistical tests were two-tailed. The HH genotype was independent of age and family history of breast cancer within cases and controls, and was more common in cases (9.2% versus 6.5%). It was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer, 1.47-fold unadjusted (95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.07; P = 0.02), and 1.42-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.00-2.02; P = 0.05) after adjusting for measured risk factors. This effect was still evident after excluding women with any non-Caucasian ancestry or the 33 cases known to have inherited a mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2, and would explain similar to3% of breast cancer. The BRCA2 N372H polymorphism appears to be associated with a modest recessively inherited risk of breast cancer in Australian women. This result is consistent with the findings for Northern European women.

Genetic Covariation between Serum {gamma}-Glutamyltransferase Activity and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Background: Several studies have shown that variation in serum gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) in the population is associated with risk of death or development of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, stroke, or hypertension. This association is only partly explained by associations between GGT and recognized risk factors. Our aim was to estimate the relative importance of genetic and environmental sources of variation in GGT as well as genetic and environmental sources of covariation between GGT and other liver enzymes and markers of cardiovascular risk in adult twin pairs. Methods: We recruited 1134 men and 2241 women through the Australian Twin Registry. Data were collected through mailed questionnaires, telephone interviews, and by analysis of blood samples. Sources of variation in GGT, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and of covariation between GGT and cardiovascular risk factors were assessed by maximum-likelihood model-fitting. Results: Serum GGT, ALT, and AST were affected by additive genetic and nonshared environmental factors, with heritabilities estimated at 0.52, 0.48, and 0.32, respectively. One-half of the genetic variance in GGT was shared with ALT, AST, or both. There were highly significant correlations between GGT and body mass index; serum lipids, lipoproteins, glucose, and insulin; and blood pressure. These correlations were more attributable to genes that affect both GGT and known cardiovascular risk factors than to environmental factors. Conclusions: Variation in serum enzymes that reflect liver function showed significant genetic effects, and there was evidence that both genetic and environmental factors that affect these enzymes can also affect cardiovascular risk. (C) 2002 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Gene-Environment Interaction Effects on Behavioral Variation and Risk of Complex Disorders: The Example of Alcoholism and Other Psychiatric Disorders

There have been few replicated examples of genotype x environment interaction effects on behavioral variation or risk of psychiatric disorder. We review some of the factors that have made detection of genotype x environment interaction effects difficult, and show how genotype x shared environment interaction (GxSE) effects are commonly confounded with genetic parameters in data from twin pairs reared together. Historic data on twin pairs reared apart can in principle be used to estimate such GxSE effects, but have rarely been used for this purpose. We illustrate this using previously published data from the Swedish Adoption Twin Study of Aging (SATSA), which suggest that GxSE effects could account for as much as 25% of the total variance in risk of becoming a regular smoker. Since few separated twin pairs will be available for study in the future, we also consider methods for modifying variance components linkage analysis to allow for environmental interactions with linked loci.