Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Adaptation of rainbow fish to lake and stream habitats

Fish occupy a range of hydrological habitats that exert different demands on locomotor performance. We examined replicate natural populations of the rainbow fishes Melanotaenia eachamensis and M. duboulayi to determine if colonization of low-velocity (lake) habitats by fish from high-velocity (stream) habitats resulted in adaptation of locomotor morphology and performance. Relative to stream conspecifics, lake fish had more posteriorly positioned first dorsal and pelvic fins, and shorter second dorsal fin bases. Habitat dimorphism observed between wild-caught fish was determined to be heritable as it was retained in M. eachamensis offspring raised in a common garden. Repeated evolution of the same heritable phenotype in independently derived populations indicated body shape divergence was a consequence of natural selection. Morphological divergence between hydrological habitats did not support a priori expectations of deeper bodies and caudal peduncles in lake fish. However, observed divergence in fin positioning was consistent with a family-wide association between habitat and morphology, and with empirical studies on other fish species. As predicted, decreased demand for sustained swimming in takes resulted in a reduction in caudal red muscle area of lake fish relative to their stream counterparts. Melanotaenia duboulayi lake fish also had slower sustained swimming speeds (U-crit) than stream conspecifics. In M. eachamensis, habitat affected U-crit of males and females differently. Specifically, females exhibited the pattern observed in M. duboulayi (lake fish had faster U-crit than stream fish), but the opposite association was observed in males (stream males had slower Ucrit than lake males). Stream M. eachamensis also exhibited a reversed pattern of sexual dimorphism in U-crit (males slower than females) relative to all other groups (males faster than females). We suggest that M. eachamensis males from streams responded to factors other than water velocity. Although replication of muscle and U,,it phenotypes across same habitat populations within and/or among species was suggestive of adaptation, the common garden experiment did not confirm a genetic basis to these associations. Kinematic studies should consider the effect of the position and base length of dorsal fins.

Are wing size, wing shape and asymmetry related to field fitness of Trichogramma egg parasitoids?

The effects of wing shape, wing size, and fluctuating asymmetry in these measures oil the field fitness of T. nr. brassicae and T. pretiosum were investigated. Trichogramma wasps mass-reared on eggs of the factitious host Sitotroga cerealella were released in tomato paddocks and those females ovipositing on Helicoverpo spp. eggs were recaptured. Comparisons of the recaptured group with a sample from the release population were used to assess fitness. Wing data were obtained by positioning landmarks on mounted forewings. Size was then measured as the centroid size computed from landmark distances, while Procrustes analysis followed by principal component analysis was used to assess wing shape. Similar findings were obtained for both Trichogramma species: fitness of wasps was strongly related to wing size and some shape dimensions, but not to the asymmetries of these measures. Wasps which performed well in the field had larger wings and a different wing shape compared to wasps from the mass reared population. Both size and the shape dimensions were linearly associated with fitness although there was also some evidence for non-linear selection on shape. The results suggest that wing shape and wing size are reliable predictors of field fitness for these Trichogramma wasps.

Cuticular hydrocarbons of Drosophila birchii and D-serrata: Identification and role in mate choice in D-serrata

The cuticular hydrocarbon compositions of two sympatric species of Australian Drosophila in the montium subgroup of the melanogaster group that use cuticular hydrocarbons in mate recognition have been characterized. Drosophila birchii has 34 components in greater than trace amounts, with a carbon number range of C-20 to C-33. Drosophila serrata has 21 components above trace level and a carbon number range of C-24 to C-31. These two species share eight hydrocarbon components, with all but two of them being monoenes. For both species, the (Z)-9-monoenes are the predominant positional isomer. The hydrocarbons of D. birchii are n-alkanes, n-alkenes (Z)-5-, (Z)-7-, (Z)-9-, and (Z)-11-), low to trace levels of homologous (Z,Z)-7,11- and (Z,Z)-9,13-dienes; and trace amounts of (Z,Z)-5,9- C-25:2, a major component of D. serrata. Only one methyl branched hydrocarbon was detected (2-methyl C-28), and it occurred at very low levels. The hydrocarbons of D. serrata are dominated by a homologous series of (Z,Z)-5,9-dienes, and notably, are characterized by the apparent absence of n-alkanes. Homologous series of (Z)-5-, (Z)-7-, and (Z)-9- alkenes are also present in D. serrata as well as 2-methyl alkanes. Drosophila serrata females display strong directional mate choice based on male cuticular hydrocarbons and prefer D. serrata males with higher relative abundances of the 2-methyl alkanes, but lower relative abundances of (Z,Z)-5,9- C-24:2 and (Z)-9-C-25:1.

Effects of habitat characteristics and climate on the distribution and colouration of Dusky Moorhens (Gallinula tenebrosa) in south-east Queensland

We determined which factors predict the presence and abundance of Dusky Moorhens (Gallinula tenebrosa) at wetlands by surveying the ecological and habitat characteristics of 62 sites across south-east Queensland. Moorhens were observed in 48 of the sites sampled. They were more likely to be found at sites surrounded by taller terrestrial vegetation and where free-floating and attached aquatic vegetation was more abundant. The number of moorhens found at a site increased in relation to vegetation height, the abundance of attached aquatic vegetation and the number of purple swamphens observed. These results suggest that there are ecological constraints on the distribution of moorhens, and that food abundance and the availability of suitable nesting sites determine the overall distribution and abundance of moorhens in wetlands. Adult moorhens develop brightly coloured fleshy frontal shields, bills and legs when breeding, although in some populations birds maintain year-round colouration. We observed year-round breeding colouration in 23 out of 34 sampling sites that had moorhens and were surveyed in August. Coloured moorhens were found during winter at sites with higher minimum winter temperatures, and more abundant free-floating and submerged leafy vegetation. In addition, higher proportions of moorhens were coloured at sites with higher mean minimum temperatures. The retention of year-round breeding colouration appears to be restricted to areas with warmer winter temperatures and more abundant food. The results suggest that areas not occupied by moorhens are of inadequate quality to support breeding populations. We suggest that ecological constraints on independent breeding in Dusky Moorhens may have favoured the evolution of their unusual cooperative breeding system, which involves frequent mate-sharing by both sexes.

Exploring complex fitness surfaces: Multiple ornamentation and polymorphism in male guppies

The sexual ornamentation used by male guppies to attract females comprises many components, each of which varies considerably among males. Although natural and sexual selection have been shown to contribute to divergence among populations in male sexual ornaments, the role of sexual selection in maintaining polymorphism within populations is less clear. We used both parametric quadratic regression and nonparametric projection pursuit regression techniques to reveal the major axes of non-linear sexual selection on male ornaments. We visualized the fitness surfaces defined by these axes using thin-plate splines to allow a direct comparison of the two methodologies. Identification of the major axes of selection and their visualization was critical in determining the form and strength of nonlinear selection. Both types of analysis revealed fitness surfaces comprising three peaks, suggesting that there is more than one way to make an attractive guppy. Disruptive selection may be an important process underlying the presence of multiple sexual ornaments and may contribute to the maintenance of the high levels of polymorphism in male sexual ornaments found in guppy populations.

Geographic range size, life history and rates of diversification in Australian mammals

What causes species richness to vary among different groups of organisms? Two hypotheses are that large geographical ranges and fast life history either reduce extinction rates or raise speciation rates, elevating a clade's rate of diversification. Here we present a comparative analysis of these hypotheses using data on the phylogenetic relationships, geographical ranges and life history of the terrestrial mammal fauna of Australia. By comparing species richness patterns to null models, we show that species are distributed nonrandomly among genera. Using sister-clade comparisons to control for clade age, we then find that faster diversification is significantly associated with larger geographical ranges and larger litters, but there is no evidence for an effect of body size or age at first breeding on diversification rates. We believe the most likely explanation for these patterns is that larger litters and geographical ranges increase diversification rates because they buffer species from extinction. We also discuss the possibility that positive effects of litter size and range size on diversification rates result from elevated speciation rates.

Seasonal changes in the diving performance of the bimodally respiring freshwater turtle Rheodytes leukops in a natural setting

The objective of this study was to investigate how seasonally fluctuating environmental conditions influence the diving performance of the highly aquatic, bimodally respiring turtle Rheodytes leukops in a natural setting. Over four consecutive seasons (Austral autumn 2000 to summer 2001), the diving behaviour of adult turtles was recorded via pressure-sensitive time-depth recorders within Marlborough Creek, central Queensland, Australia. Short surfacing intervals recorded for R. leukops in winter suggest that the species utilizes aquatic respiration as an overwintering strategy to prevent the development of a metabolic acidosis during the long inactive dives observed during the season. As water temperature increases and aquatic P-O 2 decreases, R. leukops switches from facultative to obligate air-breathing, presumably because of the increased metabolic cost associated with aquatic respiration under summer conditions. Increases in mean surfacing time from winter to spring and summer are attributed to seasonal changes in behaviour possibly associated with foraging rather than to the physiological state of the turtle, given that no difference in median surfacing time among seasons was observed.

Conspicuous males suffer higher predation risk: visual modelling and experimental evidence from lizards

Colour pattern variation is a striking and widespread phenomenon. Differential predation risk between individuals is often invoked to explain colour variation, but empirical support for this hypothesis is equivocal. We investigated differential conspicuousness and predation risk in two species of Australian rock dragons, Ctenophorus decresii and C. vadnappa. To humans, the coloration of males of these species varies between 'bright' and 'dull'. Visual modelling based on objective colour measurements and the spectral sensitivities of avian visual pigments showed that dragon colour variants are differentially conspicuous to the visual system of avian predators when viewed against the natural background. We conducted field experiments to test for differential predation risk, using plaster models of 'bright' and 'dull' males. 'Bright' models were attacked significantly more often than 'dull' models suggesting that differential conspicuousness translates to differential predation risk in the wild. We also examined the influence of natural geographical range on predation risk. Results from 22 localities suggest that predation rates vary according to whether predators are familiar with the prey species. This study is among the first to demonstrate both differential conspicuousness and differential predation risk in the wild using an experimental protocol. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Divorce, dispersal and incest avoidance in the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus

1. Between 1988 and 2001, we studied social relationships in the superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus (Latham), a cooperative breeder with male helpers in which extra-group fertilizations are more common than within-pair fertilizations. 2. Unlike other fairy-wren species, females never bred on their natal territory. First-year females dispersed either directly from their natal territory to a breeding vacancy or to a foreign 'staging-post' territory where they spent their first winter as a subordinate. Females dispersing to a foreign territory settled in larger groups. Females on foreign territories inherited the territory if the dominant female died, and were sometimes able to split the territory into two by pairing with a helper male. However, most dispersed again to obtain a vacancy. 3. Females dispersing from a staging post usually gained a neighbouring vacancy, but females gaining a vacancy directly from their natal territory travelled further, perhaps to avoid pairing or mating with related males. 4. Females frequently divorced their partner, although the majority of relationships were terminated by the death of one of the pair. If death did not intervene, one-third of pairings were terminated by female-initiated divorce within 1000 days. 5. Three divorce syndromes were recognized. First, females that failed to obtain a preferred territory moved to territories with more helpers. Secondly, females that became paired to their sons when their partner died usually divorced away from them. Thirdly, females that have been in a long relationship divorce once a son has gained the senior helper position. 6. Dispersal to avoid pairing with sons is consistent with incest avoidance. However, there may be two additional benefits. Mothers do not mate with their sons, so dispersal by the mother liberates her sons to compete for within-group matings. Further, divorcing once their son has become a breeder or a senior helper allows the female to start sons in a queue for dominance on another territory. Females that do not take this option face constraints on their ability to recruit more sons into the local neighbourhood.

Do commercial fishers aggregate around marine reserves? Evidence from Big Creek Marine Ecological Reserve, central California

Marine reserves have been widely touted as a promising strategy for managing fisheries and protecting marine biodiversity. However, their establishment can involve substantial social conflict and may not produce the anticipated biological and economic benefits. A crucial factor associated with the success of marine reserves for enhancing fisheries and protecting biodiversity is the spatial distribution of fishing activity. Fishers may be attracted to the perimeter of a reserve in expectation of spillover of adult fishes. This concentration of effort can reduce spillover of fish to the surrounding fishery and has major implications for the effectiveness of reserves in achieving ecological and socioeconomic goals. We examined the spatial distribution of fishing activity relative to California's Big Creek Marine Ecological Reserve and found no aggregation near the reserve. We discuss the factors driving the spatial distribution of fishing activity relative to the reserve and the relevance of that distribution to the performance and evaluation of marine reserves.

Morphological shifts in island-dwelling birds: The roles of generalist foraging and niche expansion

Passerine birds living on islands are usually larger than their mainland counterparts, in terms of both body size and bill size. One explanation for this island rule is that shifts in morphology are an adaptation to facilitate ecological niche expansion. In insular passerines, for instance, increased bill size may facilitate generalist foraging because it allows access to a broader range of feeding niches. Here we use morphologically and ecologically divergent races of white-eyes (Zosteropidae) to test three predictions of this explanation: (1) island populations show a wider feeding niche than mainland populations; (2) island-dwelling populations are made up of individual generalists; and (3) within insular populations there is a positive association between size and degree of foraging generalism. Our results provide only partial support for the traditional explanation. In agreement with the core prediction, island populations of white-eye do consistently display a wider feeding niche than comparative mainland populations. However, observations of individually marked birds reveal that island-dwelling individuals are actually more specialized than expected by chance. Additionally, neither large body size nor large bill size are associated with generalist foraging behavior per se. These latter results remained consistent whether we base our tests on natural foraging behavior or on observations at an experimental tree, and whether we use data from single or multiple cohorts. Taken together, our results suggest that generalist foraging and niche expansion are not the full explanation for morphological shifts in island-dwelling white-eyes. Hence, we review briefly five alternative explanations for morphological divergence in insular populations: environmental determination of morphology, reduced predation pressure, physiological optimization, limited dispersal, and intraspecific dominance.