271 resultados para Risk-Neutral Probability


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Although most prospective cohort studies do not support an association between coffee consumption and pancreatic cancer, the findings for alcohol are inconsistent. Recently, a large prospective cohort study of women reported statistically significant elevations in risk of pancreatic cancer for both coffee and alcoholic beverage consumption. We obtained data on coffee, alcohol, and other dietary factors using semiquantitative food frequency questionnaires administered at baseline (1986 in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study and 1980 in the Nurses’ Health Study) and in subsequent follow-up questionnaires. Data on other risk factors for pancreatic cancer, including cigarette smoking, were also available. Individuals with a history of cancer at study initiation were excluded from all of the analyses. During the 1,907,222 person-years of follow-up, 288 incident cases of pancreatic cancer were diagnosed. The data were analyzed separately for each cohort, and results were pooled to compute overall relative risks (RR). Neither coffee nor alcohol intakes were associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer in either cohort or after pooling the results (pooled RR, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.27–1.43, for >3 cups of coffee/day versus none; and pooled RR, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.57–1.76, for >=30 grams of alcohol/day versus none). The associations did not change with analyses examining different latency periods for coffee and alcohol. Similarly, no statistically significant associations were observed for intakes of tea, decaffeinated coffee, total caffeine, or alcoholic beverages. Data from these two large cohorts do not support any overall association between coffee intake or alcohol intake and risk of pancreatic cancer.

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This study investigated the impact of media coverage of a health issue (skin cancer) on judgements of risk to self and others and the role of related communication processes. Consistent with predictions derived from the impersonal impact hypothesis, the effects of mass communication were more evident in perceptions of risk to others rather than in perceptions of personal risk. Perceptions of personal risk were more strongly correlated with interpersonal communication. However, as suggested by media system dependency theory, the relationship between mass communication and beliefs was complex. The impact of mass communication on both personal and impersonal perceptions was bound to be moderated by self-reported dependence on mass mediated information. The effect of this two-way interaction 071 perceptions of personal risk was partially mediated through interpersonal communication. Results point to the interdependence of mass and interpersonal communication as sources of social influence and the role of media dependency in shaping media impact.

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We consider the statistical properties of the local density of states of a one-dimensional Dirac equation in the presence of various types of disorder with Gaussian white-noise distribution. It is shown how either the replica trick or supersymmetry can be used to calculate exactly all the moments of the local density of states.' Careful attention is paid to how the results change if the local density of states is averaged over atomic length scales. For both the replica trick and supersymmetry the problem is reduced to finding the ground state of a zero-dimensional Hamiltonian which is written solely in terms of a pair of coupled spins which are elements of u(1, 1). This ground state is explicitly found for the particular case of the Dirac equation corresponding to an infinite metallic quantum wire with a single conduction channel. The calculated moments of the local density of states agree with those found previously by Al'tshuler and Prigodin [Sov. Phys. JETP 68 (1989) 198] using a technique based on recursion relations for Feynman diagrams. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Background. A retrospective analysis was performed on adult renal transplant recipients to evaluate the relationship between tacrolimus trough concentrations and the development of rejection in the first month after transplant. Methods. A total of 349 concentrations from 29 patients, measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), were recorded. Based on an increased serum creatinine, 12 patients were considered to have organ rejection. Rejection was confirmed by biopsy in five of these. The median trough concentration of tacrolimus over the first month of therapy, or until the time of first rejection was compared in rejecters vs non-rejecters. Results. Median trough concentrations of tacrolimus were found to be lower in biopsy-proven rejecters vs non-rejecters (P=0.03) and all rejecters vs nonrejecters (P = 0.04). The average median concentration (+/- SD) in the biopsy-proven rejecter group was 5.09 +/-1.16 ng/ml, compared to 9.20 +/-3.52 ng/ml in the non-rejecter group. After exclusion of an outlier, the average median concentration in all rejecters was 5.57 +/-1.47 ng/rnl, compared with 9.20 +/-3.52 ng/ml in non-rejecters. A rejection rate of 55% was found for patients with a median trough concentration between 0 and 10 ng/ml. This compared with no observed rejection in patients with a median concentration between 10 and 15 ng/ml. Conclusion. A significant relationship exists between organ rejection and median tacrolimus trough concentrations in the first month post-transplant, with patients displaying low concentrations more likely to reject. In order to minimize rejection in the first month after renal transplantation, trough concentrations greater than 10 ng/ml must be achieved.

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This multicenter study evaluated the impact of genetic counseling in 218 women at risk of developing hereditary breast cancer. Women were assessed prior to counseling and 12-month post-counseling using self-administered, mailed questionnaires. Compared to baseline, breast cancer genetics knowledge was increased significantly at follow-up. and greater increases in knowledge were associated with educational level. Breast cancer anxiety decreased significantly from baseline to follow-up, and these decreases were associated with improvements in perceived risk. A significant decrease in clinical breast examination was observed at the 12-month follow-up. Findings suggest that women with a family history of breast cancer benefit from attending familial cancer clinics as it leads to increases in breast cancer genetics knowledge and decreases in breast cancer anxiety. The lowered rates of clinical breast examination indicate that the content of genetic counseling may need to be reviewed to ensure that women receive and take away the right message. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We establish a connection between the simple harmonic oscillator and a two-level atom interacting with resonant, quantized cavity and strong driving fields, which suggests an experiment to measure the harmonic-oscillator's probability distribution function. To achieve this, we calculate the Autler-Townes spectrum by coupling the system to a third level. We find that there are two different regions of the atomic dynamics depending on the ratio of the: Rabi frequency Omega (c) of the cavity field to that of the Rabi frequency Omega of the driving field. For Omega (c)

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The study examined differences in gender stereotypes, restrained drinking and self-efficacy for alcohol refusal between moderate and high risk drinkers among a university sample of 301 women and 118 men. Both female and male high risk drinkers displayed a response conflict, typified by high scores on restrained drinking but low scores on self-efficacy. This pattern of response conflict was more pronounced for high risk drinking women, who also identified poorly with feminine trails (e.g. 'nurturing', 'love children', 'appreciative'). The findings are discussed in relation to society's double standard that accepts intoxication in men but condemns it in women. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Background Urban birth and migrant status have been identified as risk factors for psychosis in North American and European studies. The aim of this study was to explore these variables in an Australian case-control study. Method Country of birth of subjects and their parents, and place of birth of Australian-born subjects, were examined in individuals with psychosis drawn from a prevalence study (n = 310) and well controls recruited from the same catchment area (n = 303). Results Migrant status was associated with a significantly decreased odds of having a psychotic disorder. For those born in Australia, neither migrant status of parents nor urban birth was associated with having a psychotic disorder. Conclusions The lack of effect for urban birth and second-generation migrant status may help generate candidate environmental risk factors that operate in Europe but not in Australia.

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Hypovitaminosis D is a candidate risk-modifying factor for a diverse range of disorders apart from rickets and osteoporosis. Based on epidemiology, and on in vitro and animal experiment, vitamin D has been linked to multiple sclerosis, certain cancers (prostate, breast and colorectal), insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and schizophrenia. I hypothesise that low pre- and perinatal vitamin D levels imprint on the functional characteristics of various tissues throughout the body, leaving the affected individual at increased risk of developing a range of adult-onset disorders. The hypothesis draws from recent advances in our understanding of the early origin of adult disease and proposes a 'critical window' during which vitamin D levels may have a persisting impact on adult health outcomes. Methods to test the hypothesis are outlined. If correct, the hypothesis has important implications for public health. Careful attention to maternal vitamin D status could translate into diverse improvements in health outcomes for the following generation. (C) 2001 Harcourt Publishers Ltd.

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With the exception of the sodium D-lines, recent calculations of line broadening cross sections for several multiplets of sodium by Leininger et al (Leininger T, Gadea F X and Dickinson A 2000 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 33 1805) are in substantial disagreement with cross sections interpolated from the tables of Anstee and O'Mara (Anstee and O'Mara 1995 Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 276 859) and Barklem and O'Mara (Barklem P S and O'Mara B J 1997 Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 290 102). The discrepancy is as large as a factor of 3 for the 3p-4d multiplet. The two theories are tested by using the results of each to synthesize lines in the solar spectrum. It is found that generally the data from the theory of Anstee, Barklem and O'Mara produce the best match to the observed solar spectrum. It is found, using a simple model for reflection of the optical electron by the potential barrier between the two atoms, that the reflection coefficient is too large for avoided crossings with the upper states of subordinate lines to contribute to line broadening, supporting the neglect of avoided ionic crossings by Anstee, Barklem and O'Mara for these lines. The large discrepancies between the two sets of calculations is a result of an approximate treatment of avoided ionic crossings for these lines by Leininger et al (Leininger T, Gadea F X and Dickinson A 2000 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 33 1805).

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A survey of the floors of 3001 empty sea cargo containers in storage was undertaken to estimate the quarantine risk of importing exotic insect pests into Australia, with special reference to pests of timber. More than 7400 live and dead insects were collected from 1174 containers. No live infestations of timber-feeding insects were recorded, but feeding damage detected in one floor indicates a low risk of importing colonies of timber pests in containers. The survey collection of dead insects demonstrates that containers are regularly exposed to economically important quarantinable insects, including timber pests (bostrichids, curculionids, cerambycids, siricids and termites), agricultural pests (including Adoretus sinicus, Adoretus sp., Carpophilus obsoletus and Philaenus spumarius), and nuisance pests (vespids and Solenopsis sp.). Stored product pests were found in more than 10% of containers. The assessment of pest risk associated with shipping containers is discussed in terms of the quantity and quality of opportunities for exotic insects to establish via this pathway.

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1. We describe patterns of post-fledging care, dispersal and recruitment in four cohorts of brown thornbills Acanthiza pusilla. We examine what factors influence post-fledging survival and determine how post-hedging care and the timing of dispersal influence the probability of recruitment in this small, pair breeding, Australian passerine. 2. Fledgling thornbills were dependent on their parents for approximately 6 weeks. Male fledglings were more likely than female fledglings to survive until independence. For both sexes, the probability of reaching independence increased as nestling weight increased and was higher for nestlings that fledged later in the season. 3. The timing of dispersal by juvenile thornbills was bimodal. Juveniles either dispersed by the end of the breeding season or remained on their natal territory into the autumn and winter. Juveniles that delayed dispersal were four times more likely to recruit into the local breeding population than juveniles that dispersed early. 4. Delayed dispersal was advantageous because individuals that remained on their natal territory suffered little mortality and tended to disperse only when a local vacancy was available. Consequently, the risk of mortality associated with obtaining a breeding vacancy using this dispersal strategy was low. 5. Males, the more philopatric sex, were far more likely than females to delay dispersal. Despite the apparent advantages of prolonged natal philopatry, however, only 54% of pairs that raised male fledglings to independence had sons that postponed dispersal, and most of these philopatric sons gained vacancies before their parents bred again. Consequently, few sons have the opportunity to help their parents. Constraints on delayed dispersal therefore appear to play a major role in the evolution of pair-breeding in the brown thornbill.

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Several problematic aspects of women's paid employment - e.g. low pay and lack of promotional opportunities - are exacerbated by the segregation of women and men into different occupations. In this article, the potential of in-store equal opportunities policies to break down such gender segregation will be explored, through consideration of the existence and implementation of these policies in twenty-two multinational retail companies in Dublin and Paris. It will be argued that, with one notable exception, the instore equal opportunities policies are effectively neutralized, and furthermore are neutralized in nationally specific ways which can be related to differences between France and Ireland in the organization of labour-market regulation and in women's labour-force participation (LFP). The case-study findings also suggest that the 'country' variable has a stronger effect on the existence and implementation of these policies than the extent of a shop's links to an overseas headquarters. The findings of this study have implications for both the equity of women's incorporation into the paid labour force and understanding of aspects of HRM in branches of multinational companies.